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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 2, 2022

$97.17

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Transcript

Sarah Willett

Management

[Audio Gap] be conscious of that for everybody in the room. I'm Sarah Willett. I know most of you, if not all of you. So welcome here today. And for those of you that joined us this morning, I thought we had a great market tour, [indiscernible] and Tesco's. There are a couple of breaks this afternoon, and I'll sort of feed through logistics at the back end of the day for those of you that are joining us this evening. Basically, we've got the WiFi up on the screen. So if any of you haven't caught that already, here's your chance. Okay. Good. Okay. So without any further ado, forward-looking statements, I'll cover that, and we're going to hand over to Damian, our CEO.

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sarah. [indiscernible] [ passionate ] about the WiFi code because everywhere we go, the first question is, what's the WiFi code. And then Sarah said, the first slide today is going to be the WiFi code. So I'm very used to that. So thank you for being here. It is a little bit cozy. We deliberately wanted to host you at our offices for 2 reasons. I think it's great for our people to see you here, and it's also a lot cheaper than London hotel prices at the moment. So we felt it was a better use of our cash. So a little bit cozy, but we'll take plenty of breaks. And hopefully, we'll get a chance to get to a good Q&A session at the end of today. So big welcome on behalf of everybody at CCEP. What I'm going to talk about today and all of my colleagues is really represented by over 30,000 really engaged and passionate employees at our business. So it's great to be the messenger. But clearly, that's built on a lot of people who are with us today in spirit, but thankfully, they're out making, selling and moving all of our great brands as we tell our story today. So just to the agenda. I'm sure you've seen our Q3 results, so I'll spend a little bit of time on that this morning -- or this afternoon. And then we've got quite a lot to cover. And we deliberately took the view that we haven't been with you for quite a while and a lot has happened and a lot is happening. And we felt it was really good to get into some good detail around what we're passionate about as a business, but also for you to meet a…

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sol. So the good news is Sol will be with us all evening until late at night with Nik, I think is the deal that we struck. Soledad Daurella Comadrán: Not [indiscernible].

Damian Gammell

Management

So thank you, Sol. So just on to our Q3. So I'm sure you've all had a chance to digest what was really another great quarter for CCEP. So we're really pleased with the results we could post today. On top of that, clearly, it's a milestone to also take up our full year 2022 guidance. I mean really across all of the performance indicators of our business, we've really had a very strong first half of the year, and indeed, that continued into Q3, which obviously gives us confidence as a management team to post a brighter outlook for the full year 2022, raising our guidance on the top line, bottom line and certainly myself and Nik's favorite topic, raising our free cash flow guidance as well, which we're particularly happy with. So clearly, a great foundation for our Capital Markets Day. I did note that -- and there could be in the room that someone wrote that you got to expect good results on the day of the Capital Markets Day. But Sarah, correct me if I'm wrong, I think we set the date for this a year ago. So as good as we are, we didn't really predict that we were going to come out with such a strong quarter, and we certainly didn't predict that we'd be operating with some of the volatility that we talk about as we go through today. So overall, really happy with the Q3 results. Great foundation for another great year at CCEP and clearly gives us the confidence as we've laid out a bigger and bolder set of targets in the midterm, which we'll talk a little bit later. So right across the board, strong revenue momentum, great profit momentum and clearly great free cash flow. It kind of goes…

Veronique Vuillod

Management

Thank you very much, Damian, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm Veronique Vuillod, leading the people and culture function globally for CCEP. And I am more than 20 years in the company. I've been really lucky living a fantastic career experience in many different HR roles locally, globally as business partner, generalist and supporting all functions of our business. So today, I'm delighted to present to you the people strategy and the key strategic initiative we believe would make a difference for CCEP in the future. I'd like to come back to the early years of CCEP. It's been an amazing journey like Damian just explained. And we truly believe what makes CCEP so special is the culture of the company and its people. And as many people say internally, we joined for the brand, but we stay for the people. So the culture of the company is really, really strong. And we also believe that the leaders of the organization are the one shaping the culture, are the one whole modeling the ways of working and are the one to be best in employee engagement. So that's how we supported them with what we call the accelerate performance program. All of our leaders went through this leadership program at the beginning of the merger in 2016 and '17. And the good news is we refreshed that program and cascade it down in API to all management positions. So we are now with a company culture, the ways of working, the values of the company that are truly embedded globally. Second, we define our people experience. It is how it is to work at CCEP. That's what we call Me@CCEP. So it's really communicated to the entire workforce. Third, of course, we supported our people on COVID. It's been 2 years…

Damian Gammell

Management

You can clap, it's allowed. There's no prohibition. Just to come back to something Veronique touched on. For those of you who were with us in 2019, we laid out a number of frontline digital capabilities really focused around revenue. And we quickly learned that if we didn't digitize inside the organization quicker, our ability to digitize the revenue was just going to be slower. So what we recognized as we were having conversation with our customers about a more digital relationship, more online, if the people working in our organization were 10 years behind, you could never meet that commitment. So we have invested with Peter and the team and a lot of digital tools, and hopefully, some of you saw that today with the sales force. But it really goes across supply chain, our back office, our wonderful facility in Bulgaria because we recognize if we want to be a digital bottler on the outside, you've got to be very digital on the inside. So that journey continues. But that's why I thought it was important this afternoon we share a little bit of that, if you work at CCEP, how digital is enabling you to be more engaged and more productive. Before I hand over to Manolo, I just wanted to touch on one slide because I know some of you are really familiar with the Coca-Cola system and our quirks, let's call it, our unique structure. And for some of you, it may be quite new. And I think quite often, myself and Nik and Sol, one of the questions we get is like, so how does it work? How does it work? How does it really work? And as the day goes on, how does it really, really work? And clearly, we've got some great…

Manuel Prieto

Management

Hello. Good afternoon, everyone. Pleasure to be here. For those of you that haven't had the opportunity to meet before, I've been in the system for 27 years. I jumped very early at the age of 3. Spain first, U.S., back to Iberia for 8 years, another 8 years in Asia Pacific, leading a lot of the bottling and refranchising. Left the company, went to 2 other industries. Back to Coke, Mexico, a couple of years. Asia Pacific again, based in Singapore, managing Asia Pacific and Bottling Investment Group. And since 2020, I'm the CMO of the company. A pleasure to be here. Thank you. So the category vision. Category vision, for us, is a story of transformation, and it's a story of growth. And that transformation was required after the realization that a lot of our investments were not really as effective and as efficient as we would want it to be. The digital disruption had changed dramatically and move and shift the power from the brand owners to the consumer, to each and every one of you that decided one day, thanks to the smartphones, that you can watch and see or not any consumption of media. And we were just not ready for that. After decades of moving from a soft drink company into a total beverage company, we end up also in a place where we had a lot of components in our portfolio that were very fragmented. As an example of that, 6 -- we were managing 6,000 to 7,000 agencies around the world, and we were managing more than 3,000 to 4,000 innovations per year. And while the performance was okay, it was not that good. The good news is that we are in a really exciting industry, arguably, if not the most, one…

Manolo Arroyo

Management

Thank you. Up to you, Steve.

Stephen Lusk

Management

Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Stephen Lusk. For those of you that we met with the last Capital Markets Day, it's good to see you again. I joined CCEP in 2017. I've been with the system nearly over 30 years. So as young as Manolo. In different rules, general management, supply chain and commercial through my career, both in Asia, Southeast and Western and Eastern Europe. So it's great to be here. I want to talk to you about an even brighter future on how we see the next number of years as we've been building the strategy and as we see the momentum that we have in the system. So starting as ever, it's important that we look outside in and make sure that we're taking into consideration what's happening in the world around us. And post-COVID that's even more critical as we look to our strategy and make sure that we look at it through the lens of the macro and what's happening around us. through the trends that we see and the winning formulas that others are making in CPGs and how we can adapt to that. And then obviously, the channel trends and what that means for us in and around where we should play and how we should win. And then, obviously, lastly, with our brand partners with the company and Monster, what the consumer trends are going to be and how we need to access those. So as Damian said earlier, we're in a great category. It's big. It's EUR 130 billion. That's what it will be around about this year across our markets. It's growing, 3%, and we see it for the next number of years continue to grow. It's sizable in that an API will continue to see faster growth, driven,…

Damian Gammell

Management

So just noting that Manolo got the loudest applause. I think that's a function of so many bottlers being in the room and trying to keep the Coke company happy. I'm expecting a lot more from Munich, a lot more, as usual. So we're just close to a break here. I think we're good in time. I just wanted to just close off with the map, and it kind of goes back to something we talked about at our Board, and we're going to hear from Peter next around the API acquisition, was that we set an objective. One obviously was to make the acquisition accretive and great for our shareholders. You'll hear we're doing that. And secondly, it was to make Europe even stronger. And particularly when I talk to a lot of our large shareholders, I felt that was really undervalued in terms of the potential that we could take from, particularly, the Australia and New Zealand businesses back into Europe. And I think when you hear Peter, you'll get a flavor for what we've been doing. You've heard from Stephen and Manolo quite a global and kind of pan-country perspective, I just don't want to lose what's great about our business as well, which is the bottling business is still quite a local business. And if you take our markets from Iceland, where we're the second biggest player; go to Norway, where we have a fantastic coffee business over many, many years; go to Sweden, where we probably have one of the most diverse and sustainable workforces in Europe. Here in GB, hopefully, you've got a flavor today, wonderful key account management skills, big ambition, great supply chain management, go to France, where we've just relaunched a whole GB portfolio in away from home. We've got the…

Peter West

Management

So good morning. I say good morning because it's 1:15 a.m. for me. So I'm Peter West, I'm the General Manager for API. And just as a brief introduction on my background. I started my career at Mars on the pet care business, then moved to confectionery, I had 11.5 years. I had 6 years at a biscuit company called Arnott's, which is quite an iconic business in Australia. I then returned to Mars for another 8.5 years. And the last job I had was running the chocolate business in Continental Europe based out of Brussels. I then went back to Australia, ran a dairy business for 4 years, and then I joined Amatil in 2018. So it was a very different experience from 3 years of being at Amatil to then go through the acquisition. I've been involved in acquisitions before, but not to be on the receiving end. And it's a very different experience as you wave goodbye to your peers and boss and everything else as you go into a new world. So we're 18 months from the completion. And I suppose my message to you is just how brilliantly the integration has gone. And my sort of reflection having worked for large multinationals is I think there's a continuum that exists between local market accountability and then how do you leverage scale and capability. And I think all large companies struggle with that to get the balance right. And I believe that CCEP, and I say this very sincerely, threads the needle of getting that combination between local market accountability and scale perfectly right. So I think that's actually made the integration extremely successful. But it has meant, certainly from an Amatil perspective, a difference to the way we operate it. And I would say, we…

Stephen Lusk

Management

Thanks, Peter. Back in '19, when we were doing the due diligence, we were looking at what the plans would be and the opportunities. It's fantastic to see the progress and the headroom for growth that we see and a lot of that, we based around our capabilities. And the capabilities for the future and making sure that we grasp the opportunities in a brighter future, as I shared earlier. So we'd like to share with you some of those capabilities that we believe are going to make CCEP what it is to be a fantastic business to grow and invest and to create shareholder value for ourselves as well as our customers. So myself and a number of the team are going to share some capabilities and what we think is going to make a difference for the future. And really, it's all about what we call joint value creation and joint value creation with our customers. And we're going to take you through the story of how we do that around the wheel. From our signature program, which is around about how we deal with customers and work; two, our ability to drive revenue and margin and growth for ourselves with our customers in the category, enabling our future digital capability as we learn and we progress and we invest some of the capital from Nik into our future capability. And then being able to use that with smart execution, some of which Peter has just shared and other examples. And then lastly, to be able to show you what that means when we bring the future forward and the future back as the higher supply chain is going to enable great success with our customers. So really starting about world-class customer management. And this is all about…

Jantine Grijzen

Management

Thank you, Stephen. Yes, I do think R&MGM is 1 of our essential capabilities going forward. My name is Jantine Grijzen. I joined CCEP 8 years ago to build RGM capability in the Dutch business in the Netherlands. And then I progressed to [ book on ] the Retail Director in the Netherlands, working, negotiating and growing with the retail customers. And then I moved on to a group role for international customers, and now I'm solely focused on revenue and margin growth management. And we want to continue to invest in that as a capability for 3 reasons. First, to expand our strong foundations in growing RGM to also maximize margin growth from the traditional RGM lever such as price, promo and mix. And we want to have the capability -- strength and capability to do both, grow the revenue and maximize margin. And that's also why, from now on, we will add the M to R&MGM. Second, because we still believe and know there's a lot of headroom for growth to smart R&MGM, both in away-from-home as in home channels. Third, because we want to proactively grow the customer profit pool with our customers, and also capture our fair share of it. And that's a strong link between the world-class account management program, Stephen talked about [ R&MGM ]. And we really truly want to be that [ FMCG ] that is able to create win-win with our customers also in the area of profit growth and margin. So the headroom. We not only identified the headroom, but also identified the levers and the programs to capture the headroom. And that's also why I am personally very passionate about R&MGM. It's because you always start with the headroom -- and we identified the programs and the levers that…

Jantine Grijzen

Management

Yes. So that provides really a snapshot. And let me hand over to David Martin, who will tell you more about our digital capabilities.

David Martin

Management

Good afternoon, everybody. My name is David Martin. I'm part of the group commercial function. And my role really is to look at how we use data, technology, new sales channels and new business models to drive incremental and profitable revenue growth. I've been with CCEP for around 9 years, always working in this particular area. Pre-CCEP, my background is customer side building and running online grocery and general merchandise businesses for the likes of [ Asta ], Morrisons, Ocado and Fresh Direct in the U.S. We really have, I suppose, 2 key use cases against which we build our digital agenda in CCEP. The first 1 is how do we make it easier for customers and shoppers to buy from us. And the second is really around how we make it easier for our frontline colleagues to sell. And the role that I have with my team is to -- as I said, is to enable that commercial strategy and build the solutions and tools that allow our frontline teams to go and drive execution and revenue growth in the markets. So if we talk about how do we view the opportunity around digital revenue growth, it's really based on 3 pillars. The first one is around our customer portals. And this is how we make easier for our customers to order from us, but probably more importantly, both for our direct and indirect customers. How do we be the best CCEP that we can be for them helping them to grow their businesses with and through our portfolio. The second pillar is around winning with the winners. So whether this be the online grocers, our wholesalers who are increasingly moving online, the food delivery platforms or the quick commerce platforms. How do we ensure that always putting our…

Unknown Attendee

Management

And I think it's always good in these sort of events also to have the voice of the customer in the room. So as I said, 1 of the big opportunities for us here is how do we open up the portal for our indirect customers, where we may not be selling them product, but there's a huge amount of advice and the help and support that we can give them. So we've got a short video with some of our Dutch customers talking about how myCCEP is supporting their business. [Presentation]

Unknown Attendee

Management

And the second initiative we're going to quickly touch on is, I suppose, is really working against the second use case, which is how do we make it easy for our frontline colleagues to sell. As David mentioned earlier, we have 10,000 colleagues every day, every week, every month, going into our customers' outlets and having conversations with them around how we can drive better execution and how we can drive growth through their outlets by better utilizing our portfolio. At the heart of this, of course, is how we use data analytics to drive that smart execution agenda. But the reality, obviously, is in the hands of the frontline colleagues, they have the Red 1 tool. Now many of you would have seen the tool in action in the field visit this morning. But what we thought we'd actually do is share a video of -- from the New Zealand team actually about how their adoption of Red more generally has driven that business and sort of Peter has touched on this already, how they're using data and technology to really improve the efficiency of their frontline colleagues and really drive more valuable growth conversations with customers. So Alex, do you pay the video, please? [Presentation]

Unknown Attendee

Management

So a fantastic story from the New Zealand team. What super excites me about all of this, I think, is our ability to share our successes and our failures across the market, which is ultimately allowing us to go further and faster together. So that's just touching on some of the work that we're doing in the space. A lot of progress has been made. We see a lot of further opportunities in terms of how we can use data and technology, but I'm now going to hand over to Jose Antonio, who's going to talk about customer service and supply chain.

Jose Echeverria

Management

Hello. Good afternoon. My name is Jose Antonio Echeverria. I have 25 years' experience in consumer goods industry, and I joined CCEP 18 years ago at Cobega, the Spanish leading bottler at that time. And now I'm lucky enough to lead the customer service and supply chain organization across CCEP. At CCEP, we have very clear what is the strategic role of customer service and supply chain. And I will summarize as supporting sustainable growth and profitable growth through a strong focus on our customers. And doing that through our people and innovation mentality and especially about technology that really support business growth. Well, it's difficult today in these times to talk about supply chain without recognizing the headwinds that we are facing in terms of commodities or the difficulties coming from the geopolitical situation and the volatility of the global supply chain. But in this environment, I can say that in CCEP, we are improving our performance. And we are improving our performance through tools like optimizing our portfolio. As you have heard previously from Peter, we have been able to reduce the total number of SKU by [ 30%]. And just a fact, in the case of Australia, that means that with the timing that we are saving and changeovers, we are able to produce 6 million unit cases additionally with the same equipment. And clearly, we continue with our improvements in productivity, and that had allowed us to really consolidate some of our manufacturing plants in Germany also in Iberia during the last years and also some of our distribution centers. But we keep on working on building an innovation mentality, an innovation culture in CCEP. And we are doing that with our partners of CCEP vendors, and we are working with them in different topics like sustainable packaging different route to markets or logistics or even sustainability with a project that I'm really excited about that is direct air capture trying to get and remove the CO2 from the air directly in order to reduce our carbon footprint. And also, one of the innovations that we are now having is our innovation labs. I'm very excited about that. We have just opened 2 innovation labs for customer service and supply chain, one in our plant in Barcelona, another one in our plant in Berlin. Let me share more with that through a video. Play the video please. [Presentation]

Jose Echeverria

Management

And as they have mentioned, we continue investing in technology and technology that supports growth and productivity in our customer service and supply chain organization. And we are investing in almost all the areas of the end-to-end supply chain. We're investing in our area of planning with new tools that allow us to use artificial intelligence or machine learning in order to synchronize our forecast and our supply or managing our fleet, our logistics through the advanced transport management systems that allow us to really not only optimize but have an online tracking of what our fleet is doing and being able to connect with our customers in order to deliver the proper information about that. Or getting all the information of our coolers in the market, information from a technical point of view, but also from a commercial point of view. But probably 1 of the areas that I would like to share with you today is about the factory of the future, Industry 4.0, that is starting to be a reality in many of the CCEP factories. And for that, let me guide you through that through a video, please. [Presentation] [Audio Gap]

Jose Echeverria

Management

That's all from my side. Looking forward to receiving you tomorrow at [indiscernible]. And let me hand over to Ana.

Ana Callol

Management

Good afternoon. My name is Ana Callol. I am in charge of Public Affairs, Communications and Sustainability in CCEP. I joined the Coca-Cola system also a long time ago, 22 years ago. As you see, we all entered very, very young in this company. And yes, what I want to go through the roadmap in sustainability. I was in the company with Manolo a long time in marketing after in consumer positions in customer positions and afterwards in sustainability 7 years ago, joined the bottler and currently with this role since January. So as you have seen today, although sustainably is a key piece in all of the parts of our business, and you have seen consistently that everyone has been speaking about that. So -- but we have a story behind in doing this way. So we were 1 of the first companies in setting science-based emission reduction targets in 2015. And 2 years after in November 2017, we launched the first for the formers in Coca-Cola European partners bottler, our sustainability action plan called This is Forward. And it relies in all of what we are doing to add value to our shareholders also to add value to the communities in which we operate into the environment, of course. And we have done so far a lot of progress into shifting into 100% renewable electricity, investing also in collection systems in venues for recyclability, also in recycled materials and in finding solutions for more sustainable packaging. And we just don't attached to the environmental piece, but we, of course, also touch the social part and try to have more diverse workforces as Veronique mentioned previously. And we also work on developing the communities in which we operate and help them to -- for their employability. But I will…

Unknown Executive

Management

So I think we're ahead of time. So that's great news. It means we've got more time for Q&A later. So we look forward to that. Before the break, I just wanted to kind of wrap up with a reason to believe slide. I won't go through it, but I'm hopefully -- hopefully, from what you've heard this afternoon from the size of the opportunity, a clear strategy to extract value from that opportunity for our shareholders and our customers, and most importantly, the people and capabilities to execute because clearly, having the opportunity and the strategy, a lot of businesses can be good at that, but it's bringing that to life and executing it consistently across all of our markets. And I hope that what we shared with you gave you a feel that we've got the people, the capabilities and in a lot of cases now the technology in place. So we've got a 30-minute break. I'm sure everybody could do the drink. The drinks today, they are nonalcoholic first, that's later. So we're going to go to the third floor, Sarah. Yes. And the highlight of after the drinks is you've got to listen to Nik. So don't be late 30 minutes only. Thank you. [Break]

Manik Jhangiani

Management

All right. So welcome back, and welcome to the main event that everybody has been waiting for. So I stand between you and the pub or the 6:00 p.m. announcement from the Fed, I don't know which one is more exciting. But what I want to really do today is take you all through kind of bringing everything that we've seen for the last couple of hours together in terms of what does that really mean for us as a business, starting obviously with closing out 2022, hopefully, on a successful note. But then talking a little bit more around '23, but then really focusing around what does that mean if we look at '24 and beyond. And I say '24 and beyond because we believe and hope that the markets will stabilize, I think we'll hopefully return to some form of normality. And we really based our midterm algorithm on the basis that we will get back to a more same world in terms of inflation, a world in which everything that we've been doing to lay the right foundations since the formation of CCEP back in 2016, should continue to help us and enable us to deliver on those ambitions. So that's what I'm going to try and do over the next 25 minutes. I've been told that's all I have. And if I run over, that I'm going to be in trouble because I tend to talk too much. So let's start with a really important chart, I think, just to kind of ground everybody in terms of where we started out. I remember 2015 meetings sold and actually being on the other side of the table, negotiating on the formation of CCEP, little did I know that the deal was going to happen at that point…

Unknown Executive

Management

Basically raise your hands and then I'll sort of cover this slide and Claire will cover that side of the room. When I give you this handheld like, you have to do what I'm doing. Otherwise, no one's going to be able to hear you just to let you know, I'm not doing this by choice. Okay.

Unknown Executive

Management

By the way, it was 15 minutes open.

Unknown Executive

Management

It was. You have used the 15 minutes.

Unknown Executive

Management

I'll give your minutes back because I make sure everybody rushed along.

Unknown Executive

Management

And sorry, can you say who you are, right? Where are you from as well?

Sanjeet Aujla

Management

Sanjeet Aujla from Credit Suisse. Three questions, please.

Unknown Executive

Management

Three are like one.

Sanjeet Aujla

Management

Firstly, on the input cost guidance for '23, Nik. Can you just help me run through the moving parts because you came out in August with high single-digit outlook when gas prices were particularly high. They've come down a little bit since then. So kind of what have you locked in, in terms of conversion costs? And are you factoring in any energy subsidies that might come through within that guidance for next year? Second question, I didn't really hear much about hot coffee today. Is that still an exciting opportunity for you guys? And how is the Costa rollout evolving? And thirdly, just on Indonesia, one for Peter. Just to understand all the SKU and portfolio resets done this year? And is that business ready to really start to deliver strong growth from next year onwards? Is that actually how we should think about it?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Start with the easy one, '23. It's a great question, Sanjeet. And I think when we looked at this in August and where we were in terms of the high single digits, the area that's continued to move is gas and power. Now you're right, it's come off. But again, that's the danger of looking at a spot price versus a spot price in 2 months. Because if you had looked at just that, I mean, even in the last 4 weeks or 6 weeks, you've seen a huge improvement, right? Challenge is, you can't go out and hedge and cover for that, right? The only market today where we have protection for the longest period of time is Iberia because that price cap stays until the middle of next year. The U.K. obviously pulled back and already moved that only up to April. So we need to see what's happening. And within the rest of the EU, we're still waiting to see that, right? So yes, there potentially can be some upside. And that's why I mentioned if there is -- those price caps that come in, that gives us a lot more certainty. It gives our supplier base a lot more certainty in terms of what they can commit to us in terms of conversion costs as well because that's the moving part right now, right? So I'm hoping, clearly, once that comes through, we can get some upside there, but early days to call that. The other piece we've got to keep in mind is that has a knock-on impact on what inflationary pressures are in terms of just our cost base from so many different angles, right, whether it's logistics, whether it's within manufacturing, whether it is what our employees expect in terms of salary increases given cost of living crisis, right, and the challenges that are going to face. So clearly, that also will have a positive impact if that comes down in a way that gives more certainty on those elements as well. So those are some of the moving parts that hopefully, by February, when we come out with our full year results, we should have a little more clarity on to be able to give you firmer guidance.

Damian Gammell

Management

So on Costa, I mean, I think Manolo mentioned it, Stephen mentioned it, it was in my slides as well. Obviously, we lost a bit of time with COVID because mainly it's in away from home play. So the last 18 to 24 months were more challenging. Certainly, on ready-to-drink, we've made good progress. We've got a good coffee business in Australia with Grinders. So we're learning from that. I think what we're doing is prioritizing some markets. So predominantly Germany, Norway, obviously, the U.K. on ready-to-drink where the brand is really well known. And what we are trialing, particularly the Express machines, was hopefully some -- we got a chance to thrive today across all of our markets, but particularly in Spain, at the moment. So if I kind of step back, there's 2 categories we talked about today, alcohol ready-to-drink and coffee that support that 4% or certainly could help accelerate it. Both of them are in early stage of development for us. We've got some great learnings on alcohol ready-to-drink from Australia. We're starting that with the U.K. And then obviously, Costa is a huge category, it's like a $40 billion category in terms of revenue. So that's beyond what Stephen talked about in that 130. But we want to make sure we can make money and make a good return. So I suppose that's why we're still trying a lot of solutions and looking to make sure we can get a good payback. But it's in there, and there's a lot happening, we can probably give more color on that in February.

Unknown Executive

Management

And just on that $40 billion, again, keep in mind, as Damian said, it's about where can we make money, right? So if you really look at the addressable market, you're looking at maybe 1/4 of that, that where we feel we can play and make money, right, which is so very attractive, but we've got to do it in the right way and build a sustainable business for the long term.

Unknown Executive

Management

And with Indonesia, we exited the [ cut water ] and [ cut tea ] before Ramadan. The rest of the portfolio was done after Ramadan because we want to focus on execution. So we'll have some of those in our numbers in the first half at a volume level. For me, I zero in on sparking has the performance, and that's why we shared the number today. Because as we're freeing it up, are we seeing the performance on sparkling. And then that comes through at a better rate overall.

Damian Gammell

Management

Just to build on that, I think the team's credit Jorge, and the team in Indonesia. We certainly have the best Ramadan in terms of customer service levels and supply continuity. And that was really -- when it comes out of the SKU reduction we talked about earlier, was really been able to run our lines more efficiently and provide better customer service. So you get a double benefit. You get more profitable volume, going through your lines by simplifying your portfolio, and that certainly delays some CapEx as well. And so as we look at continuing to manage that CapEx number, a lot of the initiatives we heard from Jose Antonio in terms of line efficiency and productivity is a key driver of that, but it helps the top line, and that's really what we saw in Ramadan in Indonesia this year.

Robert Ottenstein

Management

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI. First, just a quick clarification. You had mentioned that you hadn't seen any slowing in the business or down trading in Europe. Is that inclusive of September and October?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. I think, year-to-date, we've seen the category remain resilient. We've seen away from home remain resilient. We've had the benefit of great weather reopening, but September, October, the trends have continued. We're seeing certainly private label getting more emphasis in store. I think that really goes back to the beginning of the summer. We haven't started to see that really come through yet in terms of share. We're also seeing a lot of the private label having to reflect the higher commodity prices, maybe a bit later than we did. And clearly, their cost base is off a much lower revenue base. So the percentage increase that they need to deliver because the price of plastic or the closure or the label is pretty much the same or maybe we're even more advantaged. So we're starting to see some pricing creeping in private label as well, which is understandable. But so far, we haven't seen a big difference year-to-date.

Robert Ottenstein

Management

Okay. And then sort of more structurally, you under-index right, in the hard discounters, that's the fastest-growing channel. How should we think about that dynamic? And how do you think about that as you model your business? And how are you looking to address that?

Damian Gammell

Management

I think that supports that growth number, Robert. I mean, we really took a stronger position in that channel in Germany, probably before the rest of Western Europe, I give credit to the German team. And if you recall, when we created CCEP, we identified that discounted capability out of Germany has been a big driver of value across other markets. So we haven't got to our average share yet, but we've consistently gained share in that channel. So we're winning share in a winning channel. So in some ways, you kind of look at it and say, well, it's a disappointment we're not at our average share level and discounters. But in some ways, that's the opportunity for growth. And that also comes back to some of the categories. I mean, it still surprises me and I look at these charts and laugh, when I see our share in sparkling flavors. If I see our share in energy at 25, and that's on the back of multiple years of double-digit growth in the 20s. So some of that indexation really supports the 4% midterm target. And I suppose we weren't gaining share or we were going backwards. Obviously, then it doesn't work. But if you look at our share, particularly in discounted, it's been the biggest driver of our growth and that gives us the confidence.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

And profitability, I think what's critically important is a lot of people continue to think as we made our foray into discounters that was going to be unprofitable, right, we're discretive. Actually, the profitability that we have in the discount channel is actually very strong, right? Because ultimately, we have a much lower cost to serve, central warehouse delivery, no merchandising. We are not typically to even enter the store, right? So it's actually a very profitable business and actually continues to be accretive. And actually, it's a good point just to build on something Damian had said earlier. Our home business that we've built and the resilience of that business with the diversification, but also the profitability of that business has really continued to evolve, right? So if you recall, I know with several of you, we've had this discussion around what is the home and away from home. And away from home is such a simplistic way of really looking at 8 or 9 different subpanels and how very -- how HoReCa can be in 1 market versus QSR versus food-to-go, et cetera, right? But we typically always saw that you had a revenue accretion piece that came as you grew your away from home, a mix benefit, right, because the revenue per case is higher. But if you then think about down to the operating profit level, -- and this is some great stuff that we learned actually with the API acquisition as we did a lot more modeling of our channel profitability based on the work that they've done, that our cost to serve is much higher, right? You've got your coolers. You've got your sales force that's calling in to those outlets. And we used to talk about the fact that away from home was typically around that 1.1x higher from a profitability level. COVID really allowed us to reset that home business, right, with that diversification of pack, the pricing, the smart RGM that we've done in the store. So today, I would say to you, yes, that revenue accretion stays for the profitability of our home channel is just as strong as our away-from-home channel, right? And depending on the subchannel within home and away from home that you're looking at, actually, some of the home channel can be even stronger, right? So the beauty is, today, we can benefit from the growth that's coming across all channels as opposed to worrying about how do I push this one more because that's where the profitability is better, right? So that's a great thing for our business as well going forward because we want to be where consumers are, where they shop, where they buy, where they consume and our profitability then is strong from both.

Damian Gammell

Management

I think it's important to reiterate a point made earlier today, that profit growth hasn't come at the expense of the retailer's profit, right? So if you look at what we've achieved, we've grown our home market profit and they've actually grown their's faster. So I think that's what makes it sustainable. If we've just taken profit from them, obviously, one time you get away with it, but it's not a sustainable business. So we've allowed them to expand margins as we've corrected what were some real inefficiencies really in our own supply chain, our pack mix and inefficiencies around promotions.

Unknown Executive

Management

And we were happy that -- Ed Mundy that you stole that chart from us and put it into your research notes. So...

Mitchell Collett

Management

Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank. I'll try 2, given 3 was too many. You had significantly fewer pack sizes if you went back to the creation of CCEP, and that's one of the areas you've been very successful in creating higher price per unit. How much further can you continue to push that? And how does that sit with your sustainability objectives? And then my second question is on the COGS breakdown, which I think was slightly different this time, Nik, to what you presented in 1H '21. I appreciate a lot of that is because of price, but the 2 bits that seem to have moved are concentrated as a higher percentage of COGS. And I think it's taxes and others that have gone down to offset. So could you just give a bit of color about how those moving pieces have changed?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. So on the first piece, I think if you look at brands like Coke or Coke Zero, we've done a lot, but we still have a way to go, particularly by channel. I think if you look at our other categories where we've got more share upside, particularly in flavors, we're still nowhere near where we've got with the Coke brand. So I think if you look at Fanta, Sprite, our tea franchise and energy, particularly multi-packs, we started the journey, if you're in the market today, in GB, that would have been a commentary you would have heard. So we've still got a long way to go in terms of pack differentiation. A lot of it's glass, a lot of it's RGB. You saw a lot of cardboard today, hopefully, in GB. So that is supporting our sustainability goals. A lot of the plastic you'll see on the outer wrap will go over time. We're committed to that. And within the bottle, it will be all padded and it will all be collected. So we're very conscious that as we drive pack proliferation and we're incentivized now that, that it drives down our CO2 footprint, drives revenue and margin, but is also sustainable. So I think we still have a way to go, which is, I think, good for us in terms of driving top line growth. But I do think what it can do is make us inefficient in our supply chain again because we need to create the space on our manufacturing and in our warehouses to allow that to happen. So that 30% to 50% SKU rationalization is a key enabler of allowing that to happen. I think Peter touched in Australia, and we saw that from the outside. They have massive proliferation in categories, packaging across numerous segments without calling the SKUs and the business started to decline. So clearly, we want to take out SKUs that will allow us to effectively drive more pack differentiation. And also, as Ana mentioned, achieved that CO2 target as well. I think RGB in France is a great example. So a full range of RGB now in France, very sustainable, higher margin for the retailer, higher margin for us, and certainly, something consumers will buy into as well, particularly with the Olympics coming. So...

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Yes. And the other thing to build on that, that's great, with the support of the Coca-Cola Company, typically, you had proprietary bottles across each of your different types of packs that you were looking at in terms of the glass flow you would have to go out and invest in, right? And actually, there's a big move towards what we're calling a universal bottle that really helps in terms of how you can think about your investment in glass flow, but also ensure the return of those as opposed to I've got a proprietary pack, and I don't have enough of this particular pack that I need to be able to fill because you've got that universal bottle that we're moving towards, and that's going to happen in a number of areas of refillables as well. To your question on COGS breakdown, part of it is the beauty of rounding. But keeping aside the beauty of rounding, there is a couple of challenges when you look at it, right? So yes, our concentrate pricing has gone up because we've been taking more pricing in the market, right? So clearly, that has an impact. And then throughput taxes has come down, both from an angle that we had a benefit in Norway where that was reversed. And so that actually came out, right? But then you also got the element of some of those are actually fixed on a per liter basis. And depending on what you're selling in terms of litreage depending on the pack that can actually have, particularly as you move towards more small packs, et cetera, that can have a positive impact as well. So part of it is in the rounding, but it's a great call out because I would say to you, if you look now '23, you're probably going to see a bit of an upweight on commodities, right? Because if you think about the 2 years of inflation that we're seeing on commodities, that's going to have a higher weighting as a percentage of our total COGS. So that 25% might move up by a couple of points, right? And then you'll see again some elements moving up or down just depending on that rounding element. But that's what it is.

Damian Gammell

Management

And just to come back to a chart on Ana's deck, which they know is my favorite slide, which is sustainability driving value in the P&L and coming back to that French example of RGB. If we wanted to go into RGB in France 2 or 3 years ago, would have been with 8 SKUs with the company. Everything would have to be proprietary tea, Fanta, Sprite. On the back of our CO2 commitments, we've gone with 2 bottles. So clearly, Coke and counter that never changes, but universe about the mix point for all the other brands. So in effect, that sustainability mindset is also driving value in the P&L. And I think that's a great example. If you look through our sustainability goals, a lot of them really drive either great employee and customer engagement, well fundamentally drive value in the P&L.

Eric Serotta

Management

Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley. Could you talk a bit about how you're approaching price discussions for 2023. You did mentioned both in the press release and today that you'll have the carryover benefit from the second price increase this year, but how are you approaching retailers? And sort of where are you in that discussion? And then second, for Peter, could you talk a bit about the strategy for extending the business in Indonesia for sparkling beyond the seasons. Talking to Manolo earlier in totally different context, he was talking about taking 7 or 8 years to change the consumer behavior in beverages. Can you do it sooner than that in Indonesia? And what's the strategy for getting there?

Damian Gammell

Management

It better be sooner than this, Jesus. So yes, I mean I think pricing today is an ongoing discussion with our retailers. So I think Jantine laid out our revenue. And now I think we're quite happy that we brought margin into that discussion because I think as Nik talked about, we have an aspiration to get back to our margin structure as quickly as possible. But -- so it's an ongoing conversation. So in some of our retailers -- or now just into November, we probably finished some of our last pricing moves in September. So we clearly laid out that we would be back in Q1. So usually, our normal cadence in January, February, March, depending on the market. So we've been discussing that with our retailers. We've been looking at elasticity modeling. We've been using some of the tools around analytics and promo pricing. So I think what currently is happening due to the kind of unprecedented levels of inflation, those pricing conversations are kind of iterative. They're not that once-a-year event that they used to be. And I think that's going to continue until we get a little bit more clarity because our retailers are in the same position on their own brands, right? So they're having the exact same conversation. So we've made it clear that we want to price for the benefit of the category and for our customers. We're very mindful that we've got a great consumer franchise. So we'll maintain a value proposition across our portfolio. We can do that because we've got so many different pack offerings. So you will still find value in our category if you go into any of our retail outlets. And I think that's critically important because some consumers and shoppers quite understand that they are under pressure from energy pricing, transportation, and that's going to continue, right? So getting that balance right for us and our retailers is critical. So we will be back in the market in Q1, again, with pricing on shelf. And then we've -- we'll see what happens, we could be back again in the middle of next year. I mean, I think that's the reality of the world we're operating within. So far, the elasticities look really good. And I think that pack differentiation allows us to play with that a little bit more than we could have certainly 4 or 5 years ago, would have been a very different story. [Indiscernible]

Peter West

Management

Yes. So development in Indonesia will be the combination of mental and physical availability. I think in Manolo's overview, my interpretation is the network model that's been developed and the evolution is there's a real mojo back in the marketing of the Coke company. And I say that as a relatively new starter to the system, where the magic sort of come back to the marketing of it through the storytelling, but also then recognizing digital and passion points. And so there's no shortage of awareness of the brands. The brands have been in the market, people know them, but it's through the marketing to make sure that it's front of mind and therefore, tapping into the passion points. And areas like gaming and digital and sports are at the center of that. And then our job is to demonstrate the physical availability and the pragmatism is, people are loyal to the brands they can find. And if you're not in the right outlets and you don't have the right visibility. So in my background of chocolate, the facings were important. Because if you went from 1 facing to 2, sales went up by percentage to 3 facings. And so if you were a blockbuster brand, you had to be multifaced because it's a 3-second purchase decision. And the distribution on our blockbusters remains too low. So when we took the Board there, the feedback would have been -- relative was the lack of visibility. And we had the extreme result with New Zealand, which was the opposite of -- it's everywhere. But it's just not visible. So the team are incredibly excited by what's possible on the blockbusters. And I think the combination of their mental and physical availability accelerates performance. But it's a building block to take it because of the number of stores and the complexity of do it. So it takes time to do.

Damian Gammell

Management

And just to maybe build on Manolo's point. I mean typically, in NARTD, sparkling will be 20% plus the category. And we're certainly nowhere near that in Indonesia. So that probably is a 7-year journey. If you take that CAGR on annual growth levels, that would be quite healthy, actually. So I think to get there, it's going to take time, while we're coming off such a low base. I think our priority is to make it sustainable and profitable. And I think we've got that opportunity now in Indonesia. What also surprised me from being there a couple of times. And those of you who've been Indonesia, they'll celebrate everything. So there is a lot more happening in that country in Ramadan. In some ways, it was a far too binary month of the year. There's National Day, there's events happening every month in Indonesia that we never connected to. And we've just started to realize that consumers in Indonesia are passionate about, obviously, Ramadan's a really special time of the year. But beyond that, there's something happening every month. And in some ways Ramadan, maybe was too simplistic for us. It was 1 month, let's go for it. We've turned ourselves to look at how -- why did per capitas drop off, how can we connect outside of Ramadan. We've just discovered as a lot of either regional events or national events that we can be a bigger part of. And I think that's...

Manik Jhangiani

Management

And I think festives -- when think you about 270 million people, everybody is not Muslim in that country as well, right? So there's Christmas celebrated, there's Diwali celebrated, and you name it, right? So there's a lot more festives that we can. Peter, do you want to talk a little bit about just Australia pricing as well as you're thinking about that?

Peter West

Management

Yes. We have a price rise hitting the market in February. We've communicated that to customers. And we've also put forward our promo program, which reflects continued fine-tuning from what we've done this year. Our alcohol side, the excise tax for that is actually tied to CPI. So we'll have 2 price rises on alcohol next year. And so the first one hits in Feb and the second in August.

Jonathan Keypour

Management

Jon Keypour from Bank of America. Just around the M&A outlook and consideration. I was just wondering, are you guys focused for prioritizing in any way, other Coca-Cola franchises? And then as a follow-on, would you consider buying out the rest of Indonesia from Coke. Would that fall under consideration as a strategic M&A? Or does that have some other kind of designation?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Should we ask Manolo to answer the first one. The second one is easier. Well, listen, at the time of the transaction, and if you go back to 2019, when we were first looking at this transaction, we had a very convoluted structure that we were trying to get through where we're actually selling back Indonesia to the Coca-Cola Company, and we're looking just to buy Australia and New Zealand simplistically, all right? And clearly, that had its issues. And anyway, we walked away from that for a variety of different reasons, including Amatil's Board that just wasn't comfortable with that. When we closed this deal, we did agree with the company that, listen, either you're going to buy back that 70% from us or we're going to buy by 30% from you, right? So it's a question of which one is going to happen. I would say to you, we clearly have an interest in being able to buy that out. Just to keep it simple, I would say, the Coca-Cola Company would clearly have a preference for that as well because it clearly is a tie-up of capital for them in a sub-entity that they can't monetize unless we actually buy it, right? So it's the right thing for both parties. And at the right time, we'll tell you what's happening there.

Damian Gammell

Management

I think on broader M&A, I mean, I think with the Board, we did quite a good detailed exercise of where it makes sense. And clearly, we believe that more Coke franchises is the best use of our capital for our shareholders. That was a disciplined approach we've taken. I mean we looked at vertical integration, we looked at adjacent categories. But clearly, we don't see them generating returns that more Coke businesses can, providing them a right Coke business, right? So I think we've been quite disciplined as well. And clearly, with the Amatil transaction, we brought in very high value-creating businesses like Australia and New Zealand. And we brought in a very large bigger business in Indonesia that we believe over time, we can create sustainable value. And we'll apply the same [Indiscernible] M&A. Is there a lot out there, speak to most Coke bottlers, there isn't a lot for sale signs around. It's a great business. Most bottlers want to get bigger. So we'll keep working with the Coke Company. We keep building our credibility, which is really demonstrating that we can support faster growth in Australia and New Zealand and turnaround Indonesia. If that unlocks some markets over time, we'll wait and see. But I think with Indonesia, 270 million consumers, it's -- that's a lot of small countries wrapped up in one big one. So we're probably happy with that one at the moment.

Simon Hales

Management

Simon Hales from Citi. A couple of questions. I know we don't want to get too bogged down in 2023 guidance at this point, Nik. But obviously, we've talked a lot about COGS. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about OpEx and maybe some of the moving parts we should be thinking about there. Maybe not scale them at this point, but clearly there's wage inflation and they're sort of going on around the world, just maybe some of the moving parts we should be aware of? And then secondly, Damian, you mentioned again sort of alcohol earlier. Clearly, there's a bigger ambition in alcohol and RTD there. How do we think about the scale of that ambition? Is it -- do you think it will be easier to perhaps future scale in alcohol than perhaps it has been, to date, in coffee, for instance? Just trying to get a flavor of strategically how you think about it.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Go for the easy one, first.

Damian Gammell

Management

Interesting. So I think not by design, but when we're looking at the Amatil business, clearly, and Peter laid out, Australia is probably one of the best alcohol ready-to-drink markets globally per capita growth. I've been there a few times, I've been amazed even though I lived there previously, how relevant that category is for the customers and consumers -- I was at the grand final with Peter. Exact same thing we saw at the rugby, everybody was drinking alcoholic ready-to-drink. So clearly, that's out of share about 17 or 18 and that I think in Europe, it's about 1. So I think that's -- you've got to ask the question, when is that trend going to come to Europe and can we be part of it? I think prior to Brown-Forman relationship with KO was probably an interesting idea, but you need brand power to get after it. We didn't have it, now we have it. But that's quite a recent development. We'll go live in Q1. I think the company are going live this quarter, Manolo in Mexico. So I think we can say we've got the brands. We certainly have the learning, and we see the size of the opportunity. Maybe it's never going to get to that Australian, but it's half that size, it's a big opportunity. I suppose it's something we'd like to come back to after we kind of get into it in Europe, I mean, Topo Chico was interesting. It was a stop start with COVID. It's a category that's not as developed in Europe as it is in the U.S. But we've seen markets like the Netherlands and GB showing enough opportunity that we want to stay in it. I personally feel that flavored alcoholic ready-to-drink and Jack and Coke has a…

Manik Jhangiani

Management

So back to '23. So if you look at the P&L, I mean, if you look at the inflationary pressures, it's within COGS, you're going to see that coming into our manufacturing piece, right, given the workforce space that we have in this. So that's one element. And then you've obviously got it in your -- the rest of your workforce, either sitting through commercial or in G&A, right? Now that inflation level is going to vary across markets, right, depending on the levels of what is being seen locally. And some of the stuff that we're working through. Damian, Veronique and I are having some very good discussions around how do we think about that to make sure that we do the right thing for our employees, right? Ultimately, we're doing the right thing for our customers. We're doing the right thing for our suppliers, for our shareholders. The employees are critically important part of our success, and we need to do the right thing. So in some markets, what we've done this year is actually go ahead and that's obviously built into our guidance before you ask, is around doing some one-off support payments to actually support with the health -- with the cost of living crisis that they're dealing with this year. That obviously should help us as we think about next year. The other element is what do we look at, which is a kind of increase in terms of base and what is a one-off benefit that doesn't necessarily stay in the base going forward if the inflation is going to be at that level as well, right? So I can't give you a clear answer because a lot of that's going to depend on how we actually see those numbers shake out, how do we want to go through those discussions and negotiations. And again, we'll give you some more color on that, but that's what you're going to see. Then the other element is really what's linked to volume-related elements of manufacturing and distribution. Now as I said earlier, '23 is not a volume-linked plan, right? But you're still going to see inflation even on that same volume that still needs to get to that outlook, right? That's going to play out, right, from that whole energy cost perspective. So lots of moving parts. But then again, what I would say to you is a lot of focus around what can we do on the efficiency and productivity piece. We've got the tail of what we have from the announced program when we did the transaction. So that's to come. And then clearly, we will try and accelerate elements of what we've just announced today in terms of what can come through in '23 to offset some of those pressures as well.

Damian Gammell

Management

And we'll be sharing that challenge with our suppliers next week.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Absolutely. Monday. Tune in, if you want.

Richard Bruce

Management

Richard Bruce at Trinity Street. When you raised your long-term revenue growth forecast. Did you incorporate a higher level of assumed inflation? In other words, did you take up a real level of revenue? Or was it just a nominal level of revenue growth that you increased?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

So listen, I mean, it goes back to what I said in terms of when you look at that split out of how we think about that 4%, right? And what we've been able to do, if you go back to the history is even in years where we weren't seeing the same type of inflationary pressures, we were focused on getting shelf pricing and then optimizing promo spend as well, right? So you're looking at both of those elements that we can continue to play with, right? So it's about 40% of that we're looking at. And we're looking at it based on what we see as the category growth, wanting to maintain if not grow our share year-on-year. And what we see is general inflation levels in most markets, given that we're sitting in a developed world, you're looking at real kind of inflation in terms of that circa, let's call it, 1.5% to 2% type of range that hopefully, we'll get back to in a more normalized world. So that's what we've built in, right? Now Indonesia is obviously very different, right? And that's a different equation because it's not just about then, is it real or not at all. It also comes back to the elements of affordability, the pack architecture, what we want to do to drive volume availability and distribution. So it's a bit of a different equation over that.

Damian Gammell

Management

I think that's why we -- we talk about it from '24 because as Nik laid out already, '23 will be very different, just on the basis of the inflation, the pricing we've taken this year. But clearly, as we get to a more normalized world hopefully. It's back to a reasonable level of inflation to drive that 4%.

Edward Mundy

Management

Ed Mundy from Jefferies. Just 2 questions, please. The first is on this greater profit sharing with the retailers. You put that slide up where you're growing revenues 4.5%, the retailers have grown 5%. It's clearly worked, given how much sort of value you're creating for them and your market share improvements and we've seen it in the numbers. Are we at a sort of plateau of that relationship? Or are there opportunities to sort of share further as you collaborate with your retailers, I guess, is the first point. And then the question on -- second one, Peter, on Australia. I think you talked to moving down your premise intensity or depth of premise from 50 to 40 without a huge amount of impact on the elasticities or the business? Are there further opportunities to bring that down further as you look out the next few years?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

He's done 30 and 20 as well. Not just 40.

Peter West

Management

[Indiscernible]

Damian Gammell

Management

So do you want to answer that, and then I'll come back on the first.

Peter West

Management

Yes. So the way we think of the Australian business is instead of trying to think of the P&L in totality. We break it down by channel. And then each of our channel has a point of departure to point of arrival economic shape. It has different price assumptions, volume assumptions. And then we also take profit to serve. And in the profit to serve, we look at fridges, we look at coverage and we also then look at the mix of what we sell. So that channel by channel provides absolute clarity. When you start thinking your fridges even with large retailers, you can then say, well, of your 1,000 stores, the following 250 don't need the number of fridges and that actually improves the profitability. For our customers, their mix on front of store, they make a lot more out of the front of store. So that's a really important one. If you come and do store visits we're at 75% to 80% share at the front of store in grocery. And then in promo mix, as we're freeing up 6 packs, 10 packs, 12 packs, intensity on that also now comes up because of the success we're seeing on those packs. So we're seeing more price realization in small packs. And then for the retailers, they make a higher margin on those small packs. So I would have confidence by channel of our plans and landing those promo improvements.

Damian Gammell

Operator

And just your first question, I mean we see that continuing. I mean when we look at the margin opportunities we see by pack or by category, we see that for the retailers, too. I mean, will there be always that 0.5 delta would they take a bit more? Maybe. Will it grow much more? I don't think so. Could it come back to where we're both growing at the same level? Probably. Will we eat into their margin to support their value creation? I don't see that happening. That's not a sustainable model. I think as we look and I think the tools that Jantine showed today, when we model that, we model the margin for us on the retailer. I mean, ultimately, they -- they set the shelf price. We look at the elasticity, assuming that they would effectively pass on. And I think that's worked really well for us. I think in some countries, particularly like France, margins had eroded for retailers over many years. We've been rebuilding it. So some countries we've given a bit more back because we're off a lower base. But the markets have been very equal like GB, great growth. So I think we'll continue with that joint value creation model. The gap may widen or close a little bit, but I don't see us growing at the expense of our retailers profitability. That's not something that works long term at all. Sarah is waving at me.

Unknown Executive

Management

To finish -- I know there are more questions. There's plenty of time this evening to ask more questions for those of you who are joining us. That's the close of the Q&A. You just got a couple more slides Damian to close. And then I'll cover some logistics.

Damian Gammell

Operator

Okay. So I'm standing between everybody on a good night out, hopefully. So before I close, I just wanted a big thank you to everybody from the team who presented. So thank you. And to a great IR team for putting it all together. Thank you, Sarah. It's been really easy. So I hope you got a flavor today of not just where we are obviously in '22, a flavor of how we see '23, but more importantly, how we see our midterm and taking those numbers to a more ambitious level. We try to give you an overview in a relatively short period of time of our growth story. Again, a big thank you to Manolo for sharing the Coca-Cola Company's perspective and for Sol for opening remarks on where we see our business, and it's a great business. Lots of reasons to believe that we can discuss over dinner. When we deliver on this strategy, we truly believe that, that's sustainable shareholder value creation is at the heart of what we do. That also creates value for our customers. It will lead to a more diverse business, not just in terms of geography, but category and also talent. We're very happy that we can accelerate our ambition on the top line and the bottom line, obviously, free cash flow, which myself and Nik are always very passionate about. We see sustainability as a core value driver as well as being the right thing to do. Ana shared with you a few very simple, but very powerful examples that by doing the right thing for the environment and for the future, can also support value creation in our business and also, most importantly, connect with our customers' objectives and make our employees a lot happier. So simple example, rolling…