Earnings Labs

Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

Q2 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 4, 2011

$114.47

-1.64%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.17%

1 Week

-6.64%

1 Month

-8.46%

vs S&P

-5.74%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cameco Corporation Second Quarter Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Bob Lillie, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lillie.

Bob Lillie

Management

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Cameco's Second Quarter Conference Call to discuss the financial results. Thanks for joining us. With us is Tim Gitzel, President and CEO, and his executive team, who he will introduce in a moment. We're also joined by our colleague, Rachelle Girard, Manager, Investor Relations. After his introductions, Tim will begin with brief comments on the quarter and outlook for the remainder of 2011 and comments on current industry conditions. Then we'll open it up for your questions. Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community including the media. During the QA session, please limit yourself to 2 questions then return to the queue. Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions, and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to our annual information form and MD&A for more information about the factors that could cause these different results and the assumptions that we have made. With that, I'll turn it over to Tim.

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Well, thank you, Bob, and welcome to all who have joined us on our second quarter call today. With me on the call today are all of the members of our new senior executive team, who I think you are all familiar with. This is Grant Isaac's first conference call. He's our Chief Financial Officer. Grant has been a member of Cameco's senior management team for some time and is now responsible for corporate strategy. His strategic insight will help us apply our financial strength to achieve our growth objectives. The other new member of our senior executive team, Alice Wong, is no stranger to the investor community as she previously led our investor, corporate and government relations group. In nearly 25 years of experience with Cameco, Alice has held senior positions in both the corporate and operational sides of the company, and has built a broad and deep knowledge of our business. Since 2008, as Vice President of Safety, Health, Environment, Quality and Regulatory Relations, she's been responsible for dealing with one of Cameco's most important stakeholders, our regulators. Also with us in person, our Chief Operating Officer Bob Steane; Senior Vice President, Marketing and Business Development, Ken Seitz; and Gary Chad, our Senior Vice President, Governance, Law and Corporate Secretary. While there's been some change in Cameco's senior management team, some things remain the same. Each member of the team is committed to our core values, the safety of people and the environment, integrity and excellence. And as a group, we remain committed to achieving Cameco's strategic goal of doubling our annual uranium production by 2018. With that, let me turn to our second quarter results. We are in line with our guidance for the year. As we've previously advised, our uranium deliveries are heavily weighted to the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Brian MacArthur from UBS.

Brian MacArthur - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · UBS

I was wondering if you could just elaborate. I notice your forecast for production in the next 5 years has changed somewhat, specifically with respect to the U.S. ISL operations. Could you just go through what the new forecast shows there?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

We have a slightly tweaked our production forecast in the U.S. and I'm going to ask Bob Steane to comment on that.

Robert Steane

Analyst · UBS

The permitting and production process, we've adjusted them according to our expansion plans in the state of our current permitting progress.

Brian MacArthur - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · UBS

So is the pushback just the fact we haven't got permits on certain sites? Or are they taking longer? Or is this firmer than before? Can I look at it that way? Or is it just, we're still working through the whole process?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Brian, I think you can take it as firmer than before. It's a bit of an evolving process for us down there between the NRC and the BLM and the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality. It's complicated, we’ve said that before. Yet it's a place we need to be and want to be. So I think it just better reflects the timing we see now.

Brian MacArthur - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · UBS

Great. And maybe just a quick follow-up, again, just looking at our favorite realized price chart going forward. I sort of noticed, it looks like -- am I reading this correctly? Are we sort of in the mid-pricing range of 40 through 60, 70, 80, we've sort of knocked everything up $3 or $4 as we go through every level. Can I read that to be fair to say that we've worn out some of the older historical contracts that were really weighting it down?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Brian, that's indeed the case. I think we updated as those as those come off. And so those would be the new numbers you'd see.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Barnes from TD Securities.

Greg Barnes - TD Newcrest Capital Inc.

Analyst · TD Securities

Tim, with Japan, obviously questioning the future of the nuclear power in that country and a lot of press reports about the potential for the reactors all to be closed by next spring if they don't get these safety checks. I know they've been approved, but the states don't allow them to move forward. What impact do you see on your business from that occurring?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

First, I have to say, personally, at least, I have trouble seeing how that could happen, how Japan could take them all down at the same time and certainly, on any kind of a longer-term basis. But that said, we obviously are looking at that and looking forward. I think I can say, and then I'll pass it over to Ken Seitz, who's got more detail. But Japan going forward, if you look at our entire sales portfolio going forward, Japan would represent probably in the 17% range of that portfolio. And so it's not insignificant, but that's what it would be for us. Ken, I'll ask you if you have any further comment?

Kenneth Seitz

Analyst · TD Securities

Yes, absolutely, Tim. Greg, well, as Tim said, our overall portfolio long-term commitment's about 17% to 18%. In 2011, Japan represents about 12% of our deliveries and we expect to make all of those deliveries with the exception of about 700,000 pounds, which we have agreed to defer for one Japanese utility, and that's about 2% of this year's delivery. And we still intend to be well within our guidance of 31 million to 33 million pounds. But going forward, if your question is permanent of nuclear in Japan, it would be a case of us working with those customers. And depending on what that phase-out might look like, 17% to 18% of our portfolio being liberated for resale. So we would have those volumes to place back in the market. I can tell you that some of those contracts with Japanese customers would be at prices lower than today's market prices, and some would be higher. So it'd be a matter of how that plays out. But as Tim said, that's not something that we see as realistic. And today, we're not canceling any volumes which these customers were just looking at deferrals.

Greg Barnes - TD Newcrest Capital Inc.

Analyst · TD Securities

Just a follow-up then, too. Switching topics to Cigar Lake, you've said you're looking at various initiatives that could favorably impact some of the estimates on that OpEx, CapEx, things like that. What kind of initiatives are you looking at?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

I can't give you specifics at this time, but I can tell you that similar to the surface freezing, for instance, that we came up with our engineers, that came up with this, we're always looking for better and innovative ways, it would be in that order, things like that. So as soon as we have a better handle on those and whether they're implementable, we'll certainly provide details on that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Borden Putnam [ph], from Mione Capital [ph].

Unknown Analyst -

Analyst

A question on McArthur River. I'm looking back at the life of mine plan that you guys provided in 2008 and I know that's a bit in the past now, things might have changed. But it called for 300,000 pounds of production out of boxhole boring testing sometime in 2011. Have you done that? Are you going to? And if you do, what part of the mine will it be done in?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Borden [ph], I don't have the 2008 piece in front of me but I can tell you we've certainly evolved since then. I say evolved in the sense of our technology has gotten better, our freezing, and we've got a better handle on how we can freeze now, out into the sandstone and go above the ore bodies, which we previously didn't think we could do. And so that has negated, to some extent, our need for boxhole boring and other mining technologies that are only used from underneath the ore body. And so we've put -- we've done some testing on boxhole boring, but we certainly haven't produced any pounds from it. And the need for that is, I would say, waning.

Unknown Analyst -

Analyst

Interesting. Well, this is not my follow-up but that would suggest that this might be some of the advancements that might apply to Cigar as well. So I'll be interested to hear more about that. Congratulations on that improvement or that advance. My follow-up was going to relate to your comment in the MD&A. It says that the 2013 production at McArthur River may be a bit lower as you transition into upper zone 4. And again looking back at that production, that life of mine plan, I'm not seeing -- I didn't think you had a lot of production coming in 2013 out of upper zone 4, so where is there going to be a loss in production during that transition? Because it looks to me like you're still going to have 18.7 million pounds. What do you think it's going to come in it at now? And where's the missing pounds?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

So Borden [ph], let me ask Bob Steane, to give some detail on that.

Robert Steane

Analyst · UBS

Borden [ph], as we've been working through our life of mine plans and that zone 4 North is becoming more and more important to us, and that is where we are seeing this transition to that in 2013. And also, that's the area where we are advancing in what we call the cathedral freezing, which is what Tim talked about, where we are some very innovative ways, being able to create freeze curtains around or in places that we didn't think we could get and extend freeze curtains in the past. So that's when we see this transitioning into that area to that 2013 time frame.

Unknown Analyst -

Analyst

So is it the lower zone 4 that's going to be slowing down at that same time, Bob?

Robert Steane

Analyst · UBS

Well, it's just going through the transition into lower zone 4 and upper zone 4, that's the area where we will be transitioning through. So, that's it. A combination of those.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ben Elias from Sterne Agee. Ben Elias - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: I had a question, I guess, that was already been answered but the second question, AREVA has taken some write-down on some of their mining assets or potentially will. As you look at your asset portfolio and you look at the new demand outlook you have over the next 10, 20 years, how confident are you that the costs there will be reasonable and could support some of the investments you're making in these areas?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Yes. Ben, I think we're blessed with a good suite of assets that are -- and you've seen it in through our technical reports that we've put out. You've seen some of the operating costs that we're projecting life of mine going forward. So we watch that very close. We're comfortable with the projects that we're advancing, that they will be in the ballpark. Obviously, we'll watch where the price of uranium goes. And right now, we're moving our suite of projects ahead to have them ready. They take many years to bring on, to have them ready to go. And as the market calls for that uranium, we'll be ready to deliver. Ben Elias - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc.: Okay. And you've mentioned you've been looking for tar in investments for the last 2 to 3 years, haven't found anything. Has the sort of downturn that we've seen have -- what's been the change in some of those assets that are available and not available or the economics of those potential acquisitions.

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Ben, we look at a host of things when we're evaluating any kind of property. Obviously, the acquisition cost would be just a part of it. And you're, indeed, right that I would say over the last months now, especially since Fukushima, some of those acquisition numbers have come down. But we also look at the operating costs, the construction costs. We look at the geopolitics. We look at the geology. So it's a whole suite of factors that we'll evaluate on any project. But I can tell you that we have a dedicated team, a Business Development team that, as I said, I think is scouring the world and they will bring back projects that make sense to Cameco.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Redstone from Desjardins.

John Redstone - Desjardins Securities Inc.

Analyst · Desjardins

Most of my questions, as I always say, have already been answered, but I'll come back to my favorite project, Kintyre. Inasmuch as since the disaster in Japan, I wonder if you'd seen any noticeable change in the relevant authorities in Australia towards the development of that project

Timothy Gitzel

Management

John, we haven't. We've been working hard to advance the pre-feasibility study as you know, on that project. We've been working closely with the state government and state officials and can say they've been supportive of our efforts. And we've also been working with the Martu people, another important part of our social license, if you like. Had them over here for a visit first 2 weeks of July and so that's progressing. So, we're pressing along, I would say, on all fronts. And hope to have our feasible study in the first quarter of 2012, so I don't think we've seen any increased requirements at this point.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question is from Orest Wowkodaw from Cannacord Genuity.

Orest Wowkodaw - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Cannacord Genuity

A question just revolves around your spot market purchases, whether just curious what your current view is right now whether you think some of that excess cash to buy material at the current -- at the $50 mark makes sense. And whether you're seeing both the Japanese and German utilities, whether you're seeing the men or the market to liquidate inventory?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

I'll just open by saying that we've been quite interested to follow the spot price and see where it's at. And it's hanging in, I saw it even bumped up this week a bit. So it's been in the $50 range, long term has held pretty firm at $68, which is also encouraging, I would say, for us. As far as our purchases, I think we watch that very closely and on the dips, we would get involved. Japan and Germany, are they going to put material on the market or the spot market? It's possible. I can tell you we'd be interested if they did. And we've been talking to some of the Japanese utilities about that, and if they were interested, we'd be interested in talking to them. So Ken, I don't know if you have anything to add to that.

Kenneth Seitz

Analyst · Cannacord Genuity

No, just that I agree. I would say that the question is buying your aim at $50, sure. We are always in the market at various price levels, either buying or selling uranium on depending on our own commitment levels and then whether we think it's a good deal. Would we step in? It's just as you said Tim, with some excess inventories coming to the market. Yes, absolutely, we would. But we also just in the normal course always buying and selling uranium.

Orest Wowkodaw - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Cannacord Genuity

And during Q2 specifically, would you characterize that as sort of a typical quarter from a spot market purchase perspective? Or were you guys less active?

Robert Steane

Analyst · Cannacord Genuity

I would say we were less than active in the spot market purchasing. That's not to say that volumes weren't similar to what they were last year. In fact, you probably saw quite similar volumes. But we saw a lot of materials just trading ends among the financial players, among the traders to get those volume numbers up for ourselves. Like many, I think customers as well just sort of waiting to see how this market plays out going into the fall. So we were not active with purchases in the second quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Barnes from TD Securities.

Greg Barnes - TD Newcrest Capital Inc.

Analyst · TD Securities

Tim, if we look out to 2014, and let's assume the HEU agreement is terminated and you're not getting any more of that material. How do you see your volumes sales profile evolving?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Yes, Greg. We tend to maintain our sales profile through those years. We will have Cigar Lake starting up in that period, obviously, to fill some of the gap left by the HEU. We also have some inventories that will be available so we -- our goal and our plan is to maintain our sales levels.

Greg Barnes - TD Newcrest Capital Inc.

Analyst · TD Securities

How much do think you'll be having to sell from inventory or from material purchased?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

I don't know if I have that number in front of me. It'll depend on how the ramp up of Cigar Lake goes in our production from our other sites, but certainly we have enough inventory. We have significant inventory and enough to fill the need in 2014 and going forward if we need it.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question is from Doug Collie from MBC Radio.

Doug Collie

Analyst · MBC Radio

I joined this discussion a little late, so I just wanted to know what's the name of the person is who started the call, who introduced the new members of the management team?

Timothy Gitzel

Management

So, Doug, it's Tim Gitzel from Cameco. I'm the President and CEO.

Operator

Operator

This will conclude the questions from the telephone lines. I would now like to turn the meeting back to Mr. Tim Gitzel for his closing remarks.

Timothy Gitzel

Management

Well, thank you very much, operator. And thank you to everyone that's joined us on the call today. In conclusion, I would say we certainly agree, and we've stated these are challenging times in the nuclear industry, but we do see the fundamentals for our business as being strong and presenting an exciting opportunity for our new team here at Cameco. Together with our talented employees and world-class asset base, our team continues to be focused on the safe innovative execution of our business plan for the benefit of all of our stakeholders. So I say to all of you, thank you again for joining us, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The Cameco Corporation Second Quarter Results Conference Call has now ended.