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Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 10, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cameco Corp. Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Rachelle Girard, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Girard.

Rachelle Girard

Operator

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Cameco's fourth quarter conference call to discuss our financial results. Thank you for joining us. With us today are, 4 of Cameco's senior management team. They are Tim Gitzel, President and CEO; Bob Steane, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Grant Isaac, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Ken Seitz, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Business Development. We are also joined by our colleague, Bob Lillie. Tim will begin with comments on Cameco's results for the fourth quarter and for 2011, and on how he sees the future for Cameco and the nuclear industry. Then we will open it up for your questions. Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community including the media. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions, and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to our Annual Information Form and MD&A for more information about the factors that could cause these different results and the assumptions we have made. With that, I will turn it over to Tim.

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Well, thank you, Rachelle, and welcome to everyone who has joined us on the call today as we discuss Cameco's fourth quarter results, our progress through 2011 and our view of the future. We have several pieces of good news to report. Just yesterday, it was announced that Canada and China have agreed on a protocol to allow deliveries of Canadian uranium concentrate to the world's fastest-growing nuclear market. Once ratified, this will help us build our position as a key uranium supplier to China and grow employment and investment in Canada's uranium mining industry. We commend the governments of both countries for getting this done. Also announced yesterday was the news that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission granted Southern Co. a combined construction and operating license for 2 new units at the Volvo plant in Georgia. These are the first new reactors to be approved in the United States for more than 30 years. Turning now to Cameco's fourth quarter and annual results. Well, 2011 was a year of global economic, political and environmental challenges. In addition, the nuclear industry has felt the effects of the events in Japan in the way of new build slowdowns and lower uranium prices. But it was also a year of record performance for Cameco. For us, it has been business as usual, and in some ways, even a little better than usual. Our safety record was, once again, very strong. A number of our operations achieved important safety milestones. Cigar Lake reached 2 years without a lost-time injury, Crow Butte reached 4 years and Blind River reached an impressive 5 years without a lost-time injury. Safety is an important part of our commitment to operational excellence and we have worked hard to ensure a strong safety culture permeates the entire organization. 2011…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Terence Ortslan from TSO & Associates.

Terence Ortslan

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Pure politics, because that [ph] collections in January and Harper's visit to China, was there any issues with respect to the uranium business? Because I understand that it actually matters, I guess, given the political situation, but there was an election after all. Would there be any changes with respect to that into of -- with the Harper's trip? Was there any issues with respect to buying or selling reactors or uranium or inviting them to work for more exploration, acquisition, anything like that, that kind of transpired?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Well, I can tell you that there has been some good progress on the Canada-Chinese Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. As you may have heard, a protocol was signed between the 2 governments, that's an agreement supplementary to the Nuclear Cooperation Agreement that will allow Canadian uranium to be shipped into China. And so that for us is very important. As you'll probably remember in 2010, in June, in Ottawa on a visit of President Hu to Canada, we signed 2 large agreements with the Chinese, over 50 million pounds. And so this agreement now will allow us to ship our Canadian uranium to China. So that was the positive piece. I think you mentioned Kazakhstan, postelection there. We see it's business as usual. We've had some of our people over there recently. Bob was over there, and we continue to work on our projects and produce uranium. So no real changes over there.

Terence Ortslan

Analyst · TSO & Associates

In that agreement of June last year, what was the follow-up on that with respect to less form of uranium it isn't, and how does it fit into your big, big pie chart of the picture that the Chinese want to have? Any results on that?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Yes, maybe I'll ask Ken Seitz to answer that. Ken, do you want to put some color around that?

Kenneth A. Seitz

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Sure, Tim. Today, Cameco has under contract both, I guess, a little less than 52 million because we are making deliveries today. So about 50 million pounds in the contract, and they would comprise about 17% of our overall sales portfolio. So we're making deliveries into China. Certainly, we'll look to do more as they grow their fleet to, we're saying, 60 to 70 gigawatts by 2021. So with those type of numbers, you can imagine that China will be consuming in the neighborhood of 30 to 35 million pounds a year. So certainly, more contracting to be done in that part of the world.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Hughes of Desjardins Securities.

John Hughes - Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Just sort of a follow-up on the China theme. With the announcement, I guess, of today, and you do note you have that 50 million pounds over 15 years that you secured 2 years ago, does this open up -- the decision today, open up for additional contracts above that? Or does this just provide you with the opportunity to meet the contracts that are already in place?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Yes, John. I think the opportunity to do further contracting was open with the Chinese and we talk to them, I can say, on a very regular basis. What this agreement, this protocol, does today is allow us to ship our Canadian-produced uranium directly into China. So that was the big piece for us today.

John Hughes - Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Okay, so it opens up both, I guess, and in terms of physically moving as well as potential additional contract. Last question is, on the fourth quarter sales volume of 13.8 million pounds versus production of 6.6 million, so that differential is 7.2 million pounds. It's in sales. How much was produced versus purchased material?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Ken, do you want to answer that question?

Kenneth A. Seitz

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Sure. We didn't do any purchasing in the spot market in the last quarter of the year. So of the 14 million pounds, you can just really look at our quarterly production number, and the balance would be purchases under normal course, the biggest one being the HEU agreement. But no purchases in the spot market in that quarter.

John Hughes - Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Okay, so does the sale -- does that mean that the sales volume was principally produced material?

Kenneth A. Seitz

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

That's right. It would be principally produced material.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Aleem Ladak of Desjardins Securities.

Aleem Ladak

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

In the MD&A, there's some good information on the concurrent [ph] project, and I just wanted to ask, when exactly in 2012 do you expect to release the prefeasibility study?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

I believe we've noted Q2 for release or at least finalization of the prefea study. We're waiting for it. We'll take a good, hard look at it internally, the finalization of that prefeasibility is a stage-gate event in our portfolio management, our project management process. So we'll take a good, hard look at that when it comes. So I believe that toward the end of Q2 is when we're preparing for that.

Aleem Ladak

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Okay and we can also expect the updated Cigar Lake technical report to come out at the end of this month as well, right?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Yes, that's correct.

Aleem Ladak

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Right. And finally, more of a macro question. With the HEU agreement expiring next year, come 2014, would it be safe to assume that all of this material would be removed from the market? Or what exactly -- could you provide more color than what you've already given on the MD&A on what you expect to happen post-2013?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Desjardins Securities

Sure. So today, there's about 24 million pounds that's put on the market, thanks to the HEU agreement. And we've heard directly from the Russians and we see no evidence otherwise that, that material will be not available. It just won't be there any longer. So that's 24 million pounds that's going to be removed from the supply side of the uranium market, starting in 2014.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Greg Barnes of TD securities.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Inc., Fixed Income Research

Analyst · TD securities

Tim, you provided some disclosure around growth capital in 2014 of $250 million to $275 million, and you talked about early-stage projects coming into the mix for the Double U. Which project, specifically, are you beginning to slot into that time frame in terms of CapEx spend?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TD securities

Yes, it's a number of projects that we're starting to spend on. I think I'm going to ask Grant -- Grant's got the details on that growth capital spend, and he can detail some of projects for you, Greg.

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · TD securities

As you go through the list, the growth capital starts to ramp up, for example, with Millennium. The Millennium project, as we advanced out of it. U.S. ISR, you see a contribution there in the growth capital, and the plan there is for more wellfield development and plus some revitalization of the Highland mill there. And you also see continued development at Inkai to prepare for our future production plant. So those kind of captured the big pieces that are in the Double U plant, from a capital point of view.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Inc., Fixed Income Research

Analyst · TD securities

So Inkai isn't coming in?

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · TD securities

Inkai is not on that capital spending chart, no.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Inc., Fixed Income Research

Analyst · TD securities

Okay. And Millennium, is that more a feasibility study?

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · TD securities

Absolutely. Just understanding that deposit better.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Inc., Fixed Income Research

Analyst · TD securities

Okay. Just one other question, Tim, if you could. You said you'd accepted some deferrals of, I guess, the contracted deliveries from some customers. What did you do with the other ones that you didn't accept the deferral from?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TD securities

So we accepted some deferrals from our customers, certain customers in the countries I think we mentioned. We were able to place those pounds back onto the market at -- in fact, at higher prices so it turned out okay for us in 2011.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Inc., Fixed Income Research

Analyst · TD securities

The ones you didn't defer or didn't allow deferred, did they -- what did they do?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TD securities

I'm not sure we didn't allow any deferrals. There's some probably still under negotiation, but in the cases of our good customers that asked us for deferrals, we allowed that.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Daniel Rohr of the Morningstar.

Daniel Rohr - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · the Morningstar

I had a question first on uranium production costs. You noted in the 2012 outlook that you expect unit costs of sales, including DD&A and purchase volumes to increase anywhere from 0% to 5%. I'm curious as to how you see unit cash cost of production trending on the back of the 9% increase that we saw in 2011.

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · the Morningstar

Yes, I'll ask Grant to give some detail on that.

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · the Morningstar

Yes. The outlook that you see is absolutely right. We're suggesting an increase of 0% to 5%. There's no magic in that number. I mean, those are costs that are distributed across, of course, labor, production supplies, contracted services. And so we just expect the cash costs to track in the same range.

Daniel Rohr - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · the Morningstar

Excellent. And then I expect we'll see details of the new technical report. But were there changes with the Cigar Lake ramp up time, and I noticed that the 2013 volume expectation's down from 1 million pounds to 300,000 pounds. And then there were some minor adjustments to the 2014 and 2015 outlook overall?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · the Morningstar

Yes, there were some slight changes to production in 2013. Let me first reiterate. I can tell you we're delighted with the way the project's going. The team is doing a good job there. But we've announced now, I think, 300,000 pounds produced in 2013 versus, I believe, we had 1.4 million. That has mostly to do with our better understanding of the geology and the ore body, some lower ore grades in the initial mining panels. So we'll clearly make that up as we go along, but in that first year, that's what we're looking at.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Borden Putnam of Mione Capital.

Borden Putnam

Analyst · Mione Capital

I was asking a question about the initial startup at Cigar Lake. Can you give us a little more color on what's changed there with the anticipated lower grades in the initial mining panels, as you put in the press release?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Mione Capital

Sure. I'll ask Bob Steane, our Chief Operating Officer, to give some detail on the technical report.

Robert A. Steane

Analyst · Mione Capital

Yes, Borden. Bob Steane here. Just -- as we have gone through gathering more information, particularly from our -- on the surface freeze hole drilling that we've been doing, and that's giving us more, much more detailed information into the ore, particularly those first panels and the first ore to be mined. We're seeing some slightly different grades than we had anticipated in the very first production. So that's in the first few years that's impacting the production that we will get. The startup is, given what we knew before and in 2010 we were looking at it, and we haven't -- we've just entered the mine and now the remediation was complete. And we've got the shaft 2 through, and that was a little more struggle than we thought, very insight into it, has shifted that -- the startup date by a few months, but overall, pretty much confirmed, really, what -- where we thought we were, and it's just some small adjustments on the starting and then the initial ramp-up.

Borden Putnam

Analyst · Mione Capital

One more question, if I could, either to you or to Tim. Looking at the zone 4 upper, I know there's been some changes in the production schedule for McArthur different from when the last technical report was available for there, I believe, that was published in 2009. My model had that coming in, in about 2013. But I know there has been some slippage since then, so is this now coming in 2014? Is that a little bit later than you had recently thought or has it been on-track with the revised?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · Mione Capital

Bob?

Robert A. Steane

Analyst · Mione Capital

Yes, it's pretty much on-track. We always have some adjustments, whether we -- we've been more successful at some of the lower zones and the evolution of going through upper zone 4. But overall, I'd say we're very much on-track with the McArthur development.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Lisa Mrazek [ph] of Sun News.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Premier Brad Wall, of Saskatchewan, held a scrum yesterday and basically said that Canadian uranium is Saskatchewan uranium. So can you comment a little bit on the effects that it will have on the province, and, I guess, just across Canada as well?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

I'm sorry, what was his quote, did you say? Sorry.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Oh, he was just saying that he wanted to be clear that any uranium coming from Canada is actually coming from Saskatchewan, like yellowcake, for example.

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Yes, absolutely, sorry, I understand. Absolutely, it's because -- the only source of production in the country right now is coming out of Northern Saskatchewan. So indeed, the Canadian production that the prime minister has been talking about over here -- over in China is indeed the Saskatchewan production. So both the Prime Minister and Premier Wall have been very instrumental, very supportive in helping move the Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with China along, and so that has led to the protocol agreement that was signed yesterday between the Chinese and Prime Minister Harper. So, yes, indeed, he's right. Canadian uranium is, right now, Saskatchewan uranium.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Perfect. I think that answered it. So do you believe, then, that Saskatchewan will be able to keep up with the demand?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Well, it remains -- I'd like to say it's not a competitive market, but it's a very competitive market. And certainly, there are other producers, other countries that are in competition with Canada to sell uranium, not just into China, but around the world. So, yes, it's exciting times. In China, we see the growth here, it's very strong. There's, I believe, 26 nuclear reactors under construction today, as we speak, in China. And so that gets us excited because we know that they need uranium to fuel those reactors into the future. And so, of course, that's the fundamental base for our Double U strategy, where we're investing money in our projects to build up our production so that we can supply that uranium. So that's how the circle goes on that, and that's what gives us confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Barnes of TD Securities.

Greg Barnes - TD Securities Equity Research

Analyst · TD Securities

Just coming back. Ken or Tim, what do you think is going to happen in 2014, post-HEU, when that 24 million pounds disappears? How is the market going to adjust to about, what, 12%, 13% of the supply effectively not being there anymore?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TD Securities

Well, Ken and I may have different views on this, Greg. But I think that's just going to confirm some of the tightness in the market. That supply has to come from somewhere. And we're trying to increase our production, we're moving ahead on Cigar Lake and we're moving ahead in the U.S. and we're moving ahead in Kazakhstan to try and increase our production to fill that gap. And I'm sure there are other producers that are trying to do the same, but that is -- it could be one of those catalysts that everyone talks about that will really spur things forward. So we -- as I say, what we're seeing is that, that's going to create an opportunity for Cameco and that's why we're trying to get our production up the curve. So, Ken, I don't know if you have any other thoughts on that.

Kenneth A. Seitz

Analyst · TD Securities

No, I agree fully, Tim. I think the one thing I would add is utilities are well covered today through 2016, and maybe a little bit beyond. So in terms of uncovered requirements, we're probably not going to see a huge impact, but it's just as Tim said, where we will see it. I think is recognition that there's tightness in the market, recognition that even today, in this price environment, we'd see new projects, announcements from Reva and [indiscernible] that they're not going to go forward in this price environment. And as Tim said in his opening remarks, it takes time to bring these opportunities into production. And so I just think we'll see -- feel the effects of that tightness. Will our reactors stop running? Absolutely not, there are inventories that have been built. But it'll just highlight how we need the new primary production in this market.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Todd Coppella [ph] of [indiscernible] Capital.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Just had a quick tax question. I was wondering if you could remind us why the tax rate is so low and you're guiding for that to continue the next few years. And just curious if you could walk us through that again, and at what point we should start to look for a more normalized tax rate of, say, 25% to 30%.

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

I'll ask our CFO, Grant Isaac, to answer that, please.

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · TD securities

Yes. That's a common question that we get, and it's just a reminder that our organizational structure is set up where our costs are predominantly incurred in Canada. We talked about the Saskatchewan production that is Canadian production. Of course, that's a higher tax jurisdiction. But from a sales point of view, our customers are all over the world, and so we set up our sales network in order to gain as much efficiency as we can. So our revenues are incurred in lower tax jurisdictions on a consolidated basis. We see a lower number there, and of course, with respect to the guidance, we are guiding for a recovery, again, as we offset the tax pools in Canada with taxes paid, where we sell the product. So looking ahead, we expect the situation to continue for the next few years, but tax rate will eventually increase as we increase our production in Canada and, certainly, as we renew our transfer pricing agreements with our subsidiaries. But at the moment, our expectation is that, that guidance is good.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And then so if we would look out 4 or 5 years, would it be fair to assume that a tax rate of 25% to 30% is realistic?

Grant E. Isaac

Analyst · TD securities

Well, we don't go out that far. We sort of just guide over the next couple of years. But at the moment, our expectation is that our structure will result in that type of consolidated tax rate. And of course, we will give good notice to the market should our expectation change.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Brian MacArthur of UBS.

Brian MacArthur - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

I just wanted to follow up a little bit on Greg's question. Obviously, HEU goes out structurally a short 24 million pounds, assuming all sorts of assays and everything else. But do you think there's any probability -- the Russians always talked about no more HEU. But what about LEU they may have to substitute into that equation going forward?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · UBS

Brian, I'll just say that we're not aware of anything like that. We heard [indiscernible] had come to Toronto some time ago, and say, no more HEU, didn't mention LEU at all. We know they're selling some SWU into the U.S. market, but as far as we know, no HEU, no LEU. And so that's what we're now taking into account in our projections. I would say even a couple of years ago, we thought, well, there might be a chance that maybe they won't bring the same amount that they've been bringing. They might bring half. And we kept looking at that for some period of time, but even now we say no. As far as we can see, it's finished. And as we get closer now to next year, that just confirms our view. So not that we're aware, Brian.

Brian MacArthur - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

And maybe just on a different topic. McArthur, obviously, have had a second year of very good production there. Where do we stand on the catch-up, if I want to call it that, that obviously you could overproduce above the 13.1 million, and you did 13.8 million or 13.9 million the last 2 years. And if I remember, that was -- that's 800 for 2 years and there was a carryforward or whatever. Where do we stand on that? Do you still have the flexibility to run it up to that level and sell it? Or are we getting near the end of the catch-up or has anything changed?

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · UBS

Yes, that's a good question, Brian, and I'll get Bob to confirm the exact numbers. I think we were about 5.2 million pounds when we started and we would be about halfway there. But, Bob, you probably have more specific numbers.

Robert A. Steane

Analyst · UBS

Yes. But we've got -- really, we've got the flexibility to continue exercising our production for the next couple of years, because that will carry us through. So to the extent that we're successful with the mining and able to get that flex, we can still push to the max for the next couple of years at MacArthur and Key.

Operator

Operator

This will conclude the questions from the telephone lines. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Tim Gitzel for his closing remarks.

Timothy S. Gitzel

Analyst · TSO & Associates

Well, thank you very much, operator. And thank you, again, to everyone who joined us on the call today. In closing, I'd just like to add that this has been a year of change for our industry, but we certainly remain committed to our strategy and our goals based on strong long-term fundamentals that have not changed. Most importantly, our results for 2011 show that we remain able to deliver on these goals, and in a safe and responsible manner. So thank you, again, for joining us today, and let me wish you a great day. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The Cameco Corp. fourth quarter and year-end results conference call has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation, and have a great day.