Grant Isaac
Analyst · Uranium Empire. Please go ahead
Yes. Justin, it’s a great question and there are some lessons to be learned, obviously from looking back and the main lesson is something you’ve heard me say before, which is contracting begets contracting. Utilities, I think they watch the decisions of producers very carefully, but they watch each other very carefully as well. And when big utilities aren’t contracting, I think it creates maybe a complacency for others. And then when contracting starts to pick up and you’re seeing that us at 77 million pounds year-to-date between accepted and executed, that’s an extraordinary amount of contracting. And if you look at it against what some of the trade reporters are saying, what Cameco is doing 91% of the term contracting in the market, obviously it means there’s more contracting going on than, than what’s being picked up by the trade press, which is good, which is going to be, I think, quite eye opening for those who have maybe been waiting in the contracting queue and thinking that they have a bit more time. So historically you look back and you see that contracting begets contracting, but looking ahead, there’s actually some characteristics that are different than what we’ve seen in the past, and I think more supportive. Number one is, when you think about that 2004, 2005 window and the contracting cycle and the volumes that came, there was a heck of a lot more inventory and a heck of a lot more secondary supply available around the world than there is today. In 2004, 2005, there would’ve still been hundreds of millions of pounds yet to come to the market in the HEU Agreement alone, which was an enormous amount of secondary supply. And of course, you had much larger inventories than you have around the world. Secondly, when you look back, then you had a lot more production being invested in, you had the Kazak ramp up underway in that window, which of course, then went on to become an extraordinary asset base of supply. You had investments in Cigar Lake underway, obviously a really important Tier 1 asset being built. Flip forward to today, secondary supplies falling dramatically, inventories drawn down to really low levels. It’s not an inventory story. And where are the investments in supply? After years of really low uranium prices, there isn’t that queue of production that’s already being invested in and already being developed. And so it takes me back to the point that I made in Q2, which is we’re in the early innings. We’re not even at replacement rates, and we’ve never started a cycle at this high of a uranium price before. So historically contracting begets contracting, looking ahead, there are some features that are just far more supportive of the uranium price recovery than we would’ve seen in that window.