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COPT Defense Properties (CDP)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 28, 2023

$32.05

-0.84%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Corporate Office Properties Trust [Second] (ph) Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Venkat Kommineni, COPT's Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Kommineni, please go ahead.

Venkat Kommineni

Analyst

Thank you, Joanne. Good afternoon, and welcome to COPT's conference call to discuss second quarter results. With me today are Steve Budorick, President and CEO; and Anthony Mifsud, Executive Vice President and CFO. Reconciliations of GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that management discusses are available on our website in the results, press release and presentation and in our supplemental information package. As a reminder, forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. Actual events and results can differ materially from these forward-looking statements and the company does not undertake a duty to update them. Steve?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Our investment strategy and differentiated portfolio continue to generate strong operating results and support our positive outlook for our business for the coming years. The $100 billion increase to the Department of Defense budget that had been appropriated since March 2022 and the roughly $25 billion increase that's expected to occur later this year has and will continue to drive strong demand throughout our Defense/IT portfolio. Our capital allocation decisions have deeply concentrated our assets in locations adjacent to or in some instances containing high-priority missions. Defense contractors benefit greatly by locating offices approximate to these high-priority missions. These missions require secure office environments and the mission work cannot be performed from home. The secure environments for these missions are difficult to get approval to construct, expensive to create, and requiring significant tenant co-investment, and are not transportable. These are the major factors that drive our industry-leading retention rates. Accordingly, our competitive advantages of the best locations adjacent to these high-priority defense missions, our unique portfolio with significant security improvements, readily developable land sites to support mission growth, a 30-year track record of performance excellence, and our franchise of relationships and security credentials, continues to provide strong results, including resilient cash flows and FFO growth. We reported second quarter FFO per share as adjusted for comparability of $0.60, $0.02 higher than the midpoint of our guidance. Our core portfolio is 95% leased, which represents a 130 basis point increase year-over-year. Our Defense/IT segment is 96.8% leased, which is the highest level since we began disclosing the segment in 2015 and represents a 190 basis point year-over-year increase. Same property cash NOI increased 5.8% over the second quarter of last year and increased 7% during the first half of the year. We executed…

Anthony Mifsud

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. We reported second quarter FFO per share as adjusted for comparability of $0.60, which is $0.02 higher than the midpoint of our guidance. The quarter's outperformance was primarily driven by lower-than-expected net operating expenses, a portion of which was the timing of certain repairs and maintenance projects that we now expect to be completed in the second half of the year and slightly lower interest expense. We have generated very strong increases in same property cash NOI, with results that have exceeded our initial expectations. Driven by the year-to-date outperformance that has not timing related, we are increasing the midpoint of our same-property cash NOI guidance by 100 basis points to a revised range of 4.5% to 5.5%. This represents a 200 basis point increase in the midpoint for same-property cash NOI growth from our initial guidance target. Same-property occupancy ended the quarter at 92.8%, which is up 70 basis points sequentially from last quarter and up 170 basis points year-over-year, and we expect occupancy to continue to increase throughout the remainder of the year as executed leases commence, including 70,000 square feet by Lockheed Martin at 1200 Redstone Gateway in the third quarter, after taking occupancy of 52,000 square feet in the second quarter, and 70,000 square feet in our Fort Meade/BW Corridor sub-segment during the third quarter. Our core portfolio is 95% leased, with our Defense/IT locations finishing the quarter at 96.8% leased. Our three largest concentrated defense locations, which consist of the National Business Park, Redstone Gateway in Huntsville, and Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, are 98.8% leased in aggregate, and account for roughly 45% of our core annualized rental revenue. Adding our fully leased data center shell portfolio, 50% of our core annualized rental revenues are generated from assets that are…

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Thank you. Summarizing our key messages, we delivered another strong quarter with FFO per share $0.02 above the midpoint of our guidance. Our Defense/IT segment is 96.8% leased, the highest rate since we started reporting the segment in 2015. We raised the midpoint of full year same-property cash NOI guidance by 100 basis points, driven by a great first half. We're on track to achieve our full year goals for vacancy and development leasing. Our 1.5 million square feet of active developments, which are 92% leased, provide a strong trajectory for NOI growth over the next few years. Our liquidity is very strong and we continue to expect to self-fund the equity component of our expected development investment going forward. We raised the midpoint of full year FFO per share guidance by $0.02 and now expect to deliver FFO per share growth of 2% in 2023, 1% higher than our initial expectations and we continue to expect compound annual FFO per share growth of roughly 4% between 2023 and 2026 from the midpoint of our original 2023 guidance. Before wrapping up the call, I wanted to share some interesting current perspectives. Agencies within the U.S. government have become increasingly vocal about the cyber-espionage threats to our country. On last quarter's call, we shared a threat assessment published by the Director of the National Intelligence, or DNI, regarding China. More recently, the Office of the DNI advised Congress that Russia is focused on improving its ability to attack our infrastructure networks, and China is likely capable of attacks that could disrupt our infrastructure. This quarter, the Five Eyes, which are the intelligence operations of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, just issued a warning that a Chinese state-sponsored entity has targeted networks across critical U.S. infrastructure sectors.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Budorick. [Operator Instructions] And I show our first question comes from the line of Blaine Heck from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Blaine Heck

Analyst

Great, thanks. Good afternoon. Maybe just a high-level question to start out, the Government Accountability Office just did a study on federal buildings that concluded that the utilization at those buildings was very low. Obviously, the study covered a much different set of assets than what OFC owns, but can you just talk about your portfolio and how you'd characterize the utilization amongst your U.S. government tenants?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Sure. So first, let me talk to that study, which we read, that primarily deals with the GSA -- large GSA leases within the beltway. And indeed, they're very lately used. Some estimates are 20% or less. They've allowed a lot of work from home and that employee base has gotten pretty comfortable with that arrangement. I've also learned that there are 15 separate labor unions that represent various U.S. government employee bases and the kind of return to work efforts are going to take a long time because of the fractional representation of those employees. But turning in our portfolio, our government customer assets are not included in that report. Our government customers predominantly are in the Defense or Intelligence community, and because of the security requirements of their mission work, they are required to work in the office. So, really going all the way back to October of 2020, the attendance at our government-leased buildings has been normal or full and it just doesn't pertain our portfolio.

Blaine Heck

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Steve. And then, switching gears a little bit to the data centers. Power issues have become an impediment that we've talked about consistently in the Northern Virginia data center business. Do you see those power issues subsiding at any point? And if not, I guess, would you consider developing data centers in any other market, if your customer was willing to kind of plant a flag elsewhere?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

So, let me deal with the power, and I'm not exactly an expert of what's happening there. But the two power companies in Northern Virginia are working to increase the overall power capacity and our understanding is that it's going to deliver in roughly thirds in '24, '25, and '26. So, I think we're more than 12 months away from seeing a new power supply that can be pushed through the local distribution network. With regard to our appetite to follow our customer to a new market, we absolutely would do that, provided the market was a substantial data center market with long-term confidence and assurance of a high demand level.

Blaine Heck

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I show our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin from Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Griffin

Analyst

Great, thanks. Maybe just touching on the leasing front, appreciate the disclosure around the large lease renewals through 2025. And you talk about 95% of the lease, about $4 million expected to be renewed. But for the remainder of that 7 million that expire, what should we expect in terms of retention rates? And any color you can give around that would be helpful.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Sure. So, we're not going to put out a statistical number, but it's extremely strong growth. We expect very little non-renewal in our portfolio. So, I would say if you just handicapped the rest of it, call it roughly 80%, we'd be at or maybe better than that.

Michael Griffin

Analyst

Great, thanks. And then I know a topic that's been coming in for the past with Redstone as a potential moving of Space Command from Colorado there. I'm curious if you can give any update on timing or anything around that matter.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Well, I wish I had one, but I don't. For those people that are less familiar, Space Command was -- through a process identified Redstone Gateway as the best location to stand up this new combatant command. There's been a lot of politics in the Senate level in the house, where other states have protested the decision. They've gone through a reassessment twice. In all three cases, Redstone Gateway has been the prevailing selection. It seems to be in a politically-charged environment where the final decision has not been made and we continue to await the outcome as a lot of people in Redstone Gateway.

Michael Griffin

Analyst

Great. That's it from me. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I show our next question comes from the line of Camille Bonnel from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Camille Bonnel

Analyst

Hello. Anthony, could you please share the latest thoughts on how the company is thinking about its payout ratio? As we head towards the second half of the year, it looks like AFFO will be improving, implying your payout ratio will trend towards low 60%. So, what's the sweet spot for you? And does the company have a target for the medium term?

Anthony Mifsud

Analyst

Our target for our payout ratio of AFFO has always been in the 70% range. Our projection for this year is that for the full year will be more in the mid-60%-s of our total payout ratio based off of our remaining improvement -- our results for the year and the remaining improvements that we expect to make to our properties. So, our ratio has always sort of been in that sort of 65% to 70% range.

Camille Bonnel

Analyst

Okay, great. And on the operating expense side, it looked like it outperformed in the quarter, but operating margins went down slightly. Was that more one-time in nature?

Anthony Mifsud

Analyst

It was. I think there was -- the operating expenses were favorable for the quarter, some of that related to some R&M projects that were -- the completion of which were pushed into the third and fourth quarter of this year. But there was really no sort of noise around our margins.

Camille Bonnel

Analyst

Okay. So, you expect to see that improving from here?

Anthony Mifsud

Analyst

Yes.

Camille Bonnel

Analyst

Okay. That's it from me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Tom Catherwood from BTIG. Please go ahead.

Tom Catherwood

Analyst

Thanks, and good afternoon, all. Steve, maybe going over to the vacancy leasing pipeline, could you provide some more color around that? Specifically thinking, are there certain regions of yours that are stronger than others? And what's really driving some of these tenant requirements? Is it expirations? Is it expansions? Is it winning new contracts? Are there some kind of general themes that you can pull out of the demand that you're seeing?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Sure. So, I would say probably the two strongest areas in the development pipeline -- well, it's one of the two, but collectively the BW/Fort Meade corridor is extremely strong. And I spoke a little bit to the amount of tenant demand for new or expanded skiff capacity in the BW market. And that is heavily aligned with or associated with new contracts and expanded opportunities in that cyber-related activity that I closed my comments with. The other area is Northern Virginia, and again, most of that demand includes a need for expansion of skiff, because of the expansion opportunity -- new contract and expansion opportunities in the Route 28 corridor.

Tom Catherwood

Analyst

When you're talking about the increased skiff, is that -- is the cost for that base building? Is the cost for that covenant TIs? Are the tenants putting in -- when you look at those leases on a net effective basis, is that more beneficial to you or just over the long term does it make the tenants stickier?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

So, on the going-in lease, we give a market level of tenant improvement, so some better or worse than a non-skiff tenant, but the tenant itself has to invest the incremental capital to complete the skiff. And with the escalation in costs that have occurred, you'll have to budge at least $150 a foot, if not $200 a square foot to complete the skiff component of that suite. So that heavy co-investment and the fact that skiffs are not portable, you can't pick them up and move them to a new building, is a major factor in our record industry-leading retention rates. So, it does accrue to our benefit over the long term.

Tom Catherwood

Analyst

Got it. And then, just with all the talk around increased demand, expansion of tenants, expansion of government budgets, what are you seeing in terms of new entrants in your specific area providing real estate solutions to these tenants? And are you seeing any uptick in competitive supply?

Steve Budorick

Analyst

We really haven't, Tom. We tend to dominate the market in and around Fort Meade. I will say with the extremely high level of inventory leased at the NBP, we're kind of guiding some of that demand into Columbia Gateway, and we've got a rapidly escalating kind of inventory of skiff or skiff demand in the Park, which is really good for that portfolio of long-term. In Northern Virginia, it's always -- Route 28 corridor has been more competitive for us because there are multiple landlords, but there are certainly no new entrants, no new development. The inventory in and around the demand drivers is largely well-leased and stable. And of course, if you jump to Alabama, we have the best location period and the incremental demand tends come to us.

Tom Catherwood

Analyst

Understood. Really helpful. Thanks, everyone.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And I show our next question comes from the line of Jay Poskitt from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Jay Poskitt

Analyst

Hey, thanks, good afternoon. I'm just curious what you have baked into guidance in the back half of the year from a macroeconomic perspective. Now, you mentioned that interest expense came in a bit better than you expected. So just curious, your thoughts for the macro environment and also the rate environment in the back half of the year.

Anthony Mifsud

Analyst

So, from a rate environment built into our forecast for the balance of the year is the current SOFR curve that came -- that is sort of the most immediate one after the impact of any changes from the most recent Fed increase earlier this week. So, it has the current projections for where the market is. I'd say a 25 basis point change in that curve for the remaining six months of the year is only about a $200,000 increase in interest expense for the six months ended just because such a large portion of our debt is fixed at this point -- fixed or swapped.

Jay Poskitt

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you. And then just I was wondering if there's any update on the regional office leasing activity.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Well, so our leasing activity ratio for the regional office -- the five regional office assets is about 68%, but I will say it's largely preliminary opportunities except for the lease that we're competing for in Downtown DC for 2100 L. So that -- the sharp contrast between the timing and the sense of urgency and the demand in our Defense business, which is over 90% of our revenue, and that 10%, which is regional office, is pretty lethargic. And I would not look for meaningful progress in the leasing environment through the end of the year with the exception of the one lease we're competing for at 2100 L.

Jay Poskitt

Analyst

Great, thanks. That's all from me.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Budorick for closing remarks.

Steve Budorick

Analyst

Well, thank you all for joining us today. We are in our offices, so please coordinate through Venkat, if you would like a follow-up call. And thanks again for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation today in the Corporate Office Properties Trust second quarter 2023 results conference call. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.