Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q2 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 4, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference over to our host, Ms. Shelly Harrison. Please go ahead.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thank you, Tom. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operations and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today’s slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. I’d now like to introduce Logan Kruger, Century’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Shelly. Thank you all for joining us today. Let’s move on to slide four to get started. I’ll provide detail on the market in moment, but we will make some introductory comments here to set the contest for our broader discussion. Obviously, you’ve all seen what the equity markets have done today. Otherwise, I would characterize the aluminum market conditions for developed economies as continue to accelerate steady but slow growth. The phase of economic activity in the developing regions remain strong. The economic data from China, India, Brazil and other fast growing countries continue to look good. Other than well capitalize macro concerns, we see another signals of pending slowdown from these growing areas. Physical supply of metal continues to be tied for a variety of reasons. The dialogue around the rules covering the LME warehouses that’s recently become quite animated. Clearly different types of market participants will continue to have a distinct view. The LME had studied this issuing detail and has made some changes. We don’t believe these changes will have a significant impact on prices or premiums. In this environment, physical premiums in the most regions have remained at or near all-time highest. While this environment may not be attainable over the long-term, we do not see major changes for at least the balance of this year. I obviously do not need to comment on the global macroeconomic conditions. Suffice it to say that we are managing the company under the assumption that the issues in the EU and in the U.S. do not significantly impact the broader economy or markets. The same philosophy applies to China, where it looks for a hard economic landing, out of control for inflation or the popping of potential asset bubbles which can materialize the world would surely be…

Michael Bless

Management

Thanks, Logan. If you could turn to slide eight, please. As usual, I’ll refer to the financial information that shows the earnings release. So we have that handy, you’ll be able to follow on with my comments. And also as usual, I’ll compare in my comments the quarter that just ended to the one sequential prior to it obviously here Q2 to Q1. Before we get into the income statement data, just remind you about the market Logan referred to it. The cash LME price on average in Q2 was 4% higher than in Q1 and with the one month lag with 7% higher than Q1. Next our realized unit prices track to market, domestically we were up 7% quarter-to-quarter and an Iceland our realized prices on average grew up 6% quarter-to-quarter. Again before I get to the income statement let me just comment on shipment volumes. You can see these data – if we go to the operating data at the end of the financial information, first in the last couple of quarters this quarter we had a small amount of our shipments in Iceland that were done on a direct sale basis rather than total sales, it’s about 2350 metric tons this quarter. So when you adjust for those tons, you’ll see that domestic shipments were up 7% quarter-to-quarter and in Iceland, we were up 3% quarter-to-quarter. As will noted, Grundartangi shipped at an annualized record rate of 278,000 tons obviously we are extremely pleased with that. That compares as you know to the rated capacity of the plant of 260,000 tons. Okay let’s start at the top of the income statement and walk down first putting the pricing and volume results together, you will see that net sales on a dollar basis were up 12% quarter-to-quarter. Of…

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Mike. Let’s have a look at slide 10. We continue to make modest progress at the construction side as you can see from these updated photographs. As we have discussed some time, we believe we need to achieve good certainty on both part for the plant and the sequence and timing of that power before we can proceed. We must lock on to key items including specific pricing and delivery commitment before moving ahead. This requirement makes the discussions of the power providers more complex than they would be if we were willing to move forward with lesser commitments. Some news on these trends, the arbitration was one of the two spots can be took place as scheduled in May. We were pleased (inaudible). The findings of the panels are during September. At that time, we will assess the decision and then most likely sit down with the power provider and just to talk about the way forward. We have also seen some province of the other provider – power provider – we hope to be in a position to report some developments and I will be speaking with you after the third quarter. We believe that we can log at a mutually and track the outcome by the end of the year with a restart to begin soon after that. Let me move onto the final slide number 11. In summary, the alumina market conditions are stable and demand growths from the BRIC countries remained encouraging. We will be closely monitoring the impact of the slowing global economic activity on trading conditions in our markets. Grundartangi and Maintenance. Holly both produce method at record levels during the quarter and operating performance has been good. At Hawesville, we have putting place to plan to maintain stable operations in the near term and then return to the restock prices to bring the plant of full production capacity by the end of the year. As I mentioned in the previous slide, we continue to make modest progress at health in our discussion with a power providers. We will now take your questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Brett Levy with Jefferies & Company. Please go ahead. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Hi guys. First question is, I always ask which is as you guys look at how you are set up in terms of puts against the U.S. production, how you guys set up this year and what are your plans for kind of subsequent years?

Michael Bless

Management

Thanks, Brett, it’s Mike. No changes in our put position during – during this quarter, so it will be the same as you can go back and look at the last 10-Q or the new 10-Q that we’ll be filing early next week Monday, Tuesday and you see the position has unchanged. So we are at 9,000 tons a month for the balance of this year and 5,500 tons a month for the first half of next year, that’s the current book. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: And the thought is still 30% is about your target?

Michael Bless

Management

Yeah I mean that – it depends, Brett, upon what – upon what basis your – your defining target. We look at the denominator if you will. I think we’ve talked about this before in unpriced tons, so we take our total production and then back off the tons that are priced and quickly that are hedged partly and implicitly through the linkage of the alumina contracts to the metal price that is roughly 30% of the production right there is naturally hedged. And then you ask yourself what part of that residual do I want to hedge. And that’s I did not know fast target, what we’ve been somewhere in that range, the third to a half of the unpriced and we’ll kind of continue to assess that as we see market conditions in the cost of the production and the cost structure in the U.S. and bunch of other factors. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: And then one more question and then I will get back in queue. In terms of timetable how I mean it sounds like you have a lot more clarity hopefully not with by the end of the year and then obviously that makes some key decisions. You need clarity on Helguvik before you start thinking about capital markets options by addressing the 8% notes or could you go earlier than that? I mean my sense is you probably don’t know what’s going on in Helguvik before you start making some decisions on your straight balance?

Shelly Harrison

Management

I think there is about three questions in that Brett, so let me try and answer some of it. Just clearly on Helguvik obviously we’ve gone to first arbitration with HS and we would click piece about how that went and we will hear at the end of September and we’ve also have made some progress with discussion with (inaudible). But clarity for Helguvik is, we’ve got all the permits, we’ve got all permissions, we’ve got all the contracts in place, we basically have to bring to a conclusion the thought provider discussion so that’s the clarity on Helguvik. And I will ask Mike may be to pick up the other two.

Michael Bless

Management

Sure, Brett, on the – the callable at 104 today and then they step down to 102 in May. And so – and the maturity is two and three quarters as from now would have in May of 2014 and so we look at it other time. I mean I guess I would answer your question by saying in one respect, there are two separate decisions. From an IRR standpoint does it make sense and when does it make sense to look at paying us the premium or to look at it price to the step down date in May of 2012. You are asking sort of a broader questions in terms of capital requirements over the next couple of years when you start talking about health of Hawesville, that’s our valid question as well, but given that financing that we have locked in place and ready to go is as we’ve discussed many, many times, there is a non-recourse financing. It really is kind of this is a simplistic way of looking at and of course come part and analyze, so you can really in my opinion anyway you can’t look at those is to a very separate and distinct decision sets.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thank Brett. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Thanks very much guys.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thanks Brett.

Operator

Operator

And next we will go to Sal Tharani’s line with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Sai Tharani – Goldman Sachs: Thank you, good afternoon.

Michael Bless

Management

Hi.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Hi Sai, how you doing? Sai Tharani – Goldman Sachs: Good, can you I just want to get some clarity on your volume guidance, how really is obviously has trying to (inaudible) you ramping it up, yet you saying that you are going to have a flattish volume, it means that some other units or facilities may have a lower volume?

Michael Bless

Management

No, no. You are assuming that’s a good question. No absolutely not, your – I think conclusion assume that Hawesville volume would have been, production volume would have been flat during the quarter that was not it’s started high and then went low and then – and then came back and so that’s what you are – that’s what you’re seeing there. So what you are seeing the average for Q3 at Hawesville is going to be per hour forecast equal to the average of Q2 and same with Mt. Holly. Sai Tharani – Goldman Sachs: I got you. Okay. Thanks for clarifying. And also on the cost side, you gave the – y you gave a good detailed guidance of what to expect, but how about from Q3 to Q2, is there a – do you pay more electricity cost during the Q3 in your – is your electricity all tied to the LME?

Michael Bless

Management

No, no the electricity at Hawesville is not tied at all to the LME. It obviously it hasn’t correlations given coal prices and such, but the utility much of its core and advances as you are familiar with and so now there is no correlation there. As I said we are seeing some step up this year in both power costs part of that was scheduled or expected part of it as we have announced and discussed in the past the provider has filed for a rate case and that is close up will be completed in the third quarter so they could be a little bit of a step up there. The major increases saw that we’ve been seeing quarter-to-quarter have been carbon related like – like many other I should probably say most other producers. Sai Tharani – Goldman Sachs: Great. Thank you very much.

Michael Bless

Management

Thank you.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thanks, Geul.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of John (inaudible) please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you for your good explanation, there was a lot of confusion with news reports about managers moving on and all different things and its really all that went on was 12 million of extra cost which in the grant scheme of things is much. Which year should we put the first 90,000 ton potline into our spreadsheets for Helguvik and how should we treat the long term future at Ravenswood?

Michael Bless

Management

Yeah, good question, John. I will try and having some of that and Mike will add to it. I think obviously what we said in our remarks about Helguvik effect, obviously, we’re waiting for the arbitration in the September and then will be a discussing with power providers going forward from there. And I think (inaudible) the end of this year to bring to conclusion the part of volume discussions, subject to what goes on of course, and so as to answer your question, I would suggest in 2012 is the first 90,000 tons. Obviously...

Shelly Harrison

Management

We started construction.

Michael Bless

Management

To start of construction policies plus 24 months from this 12, 13, so early 240 for the first 90,000 tons. And I think, those are the two parts of your question, was it?

Shelly Harrison

Management

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

The second part was about Ravenswood but if I can (inaudible) up, what’s going on as we recall (inaudible) have their smelter build and weighted six to 12 months for the power that will get built and arrive?

Michael Bless

Management

Yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

But you’re doing has been very meticulous do not have the same thing happen to you, so no other problems around year end with financing or anything like that?

Michael Bless

Management

No, John, its Mike, John, thanks, that’s a good comment, I mean we’ve said we want to be very careful here that I think we’ve said in the past if there is no good to have as smelter ready to go with the power isn’t there. And so as Logan has continually said here as important as getting the pricing finalized is getting the delivery commitments of these two power providers finalize. Because we said before, some of the power for Phase I, Phase I of our smelter, the first 90,000 tons, so that’s our nomenclature there, isn’t yet in the ground. It’s there, but the final work has to be done, the pipes have to be sunk, the transmission has to be – the turbine has to be connected, the transmission lines have to be – to be built. The financing as we’ve said as Shelly told you since, boy, almost this time last year couple of months later since let’s say November of 2010 has been completed. We’ve got and agreed to sign, I think it ran to almost five dozen page, term sheet and now have a several hundred page, common terms agreement that’s ready to go and so that project financing as Logan gave us that’s to go ahead could be finalized within say a month or two.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Which all of that?

Michael Bless

Management

The debt as we told you before the debt financing, we see, let me say we take a step back and (inaudible) told you before, so the debt – the senior debt financing was on the order of $200 million, so that’s the project financing to which I just described – to which I just referred non-recourse and then underneath that would be a layer of – of obviously also non-recourse junior financing mezzanine I want everyone to call it, up to another $100 million or so. So that’s $300 million. As we’ve said, the cost to complete Phase I it’s about another $500 million that includes for skills working capital and such some of which can be borrowed anywhere and so that’s kind of the that’s where we’re today versus the cost complete Phase I.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And more longer this takes, the more cash you build up in self-finance anyone?

Michael Bless

Management

That’s true, no doubt about it.

Shelly Harrison

Management

You’re correct in an observation. I think the other part was on Ravenswood.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Right.

Michael Bless

Management

Obviously we continued on to look at Ravenswood. I think the single condition that we need to having prices obviously a suitable comparative power contract and we continue to have discussions around that, obviously enabling labor contract and obviously then some view across those markets will look for a period of two to five years. I think actually, we really want to say on grievance at this point.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Michael Bless

Management

Thanks John.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thanks John. I appreciate these questions.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Richard Garchitorena representing Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: Thanks and good afternoon.

Michael Bless

Management

Hi, Rich. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: A lot of my questions have been answered, but just I want you to touch on alumina cost, you said you mentioned that stock prices are of course they’re coming down and what’s your view on that going forward versus a year into 2012?

Michael Bless

Management

I think what we’re trying to do just talk a bit about what we see in the market rather than give you a view of what pricing maybe, but it seems to us that there is a fairly balanced supply of alumina for the demand at this point in time. And it seems to us from what we hear and see is that alumina that was testing to go into China is now staying out of China is one way of describing it. So, I think there has been a better pressure certainly in the last couple of weeks or month on the down side of the so called spot price that is being published. So that’s probably come out from around about $400 to around $380 and so if do a conversion on some percentage of LME versus – you have actual cash price or stock price you’re getting pretty close to the same sort of number. So, I think at this stage the market seem to be fairly balanced maybe some pressure on the downside. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: Okay. Great. And then just on Mt. Holly, you had mentioned that it’s operating basically at peak levels. Can you just remind us what the name plate capacity there and is this, I guess sustainable going forward?

Michael Bless

Management

I don’t 220 I think 1,000 per year of which we get half. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: Okay, so it’s running – it’s running a good couple of percent or it ran I should say in Q2 a good couple of percent above that main play capacity?

Michael Bless

Management

Very pleased about the way, Mike and the team have done at Mt. Holly have done a good job and they are now operating at a very good level. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: Okay. And my last question is on the SG&A, you have mentioned it was higher this quarter, is that a onetime event? Is that going to reverse I guess back to more normalized in (inaudible)?

Michael Bless

Management

Yes, that was a onetime event, due to the changes that we saw in the forward competition during the quarter and – and this hesitated by the terms of those – those plans and so that doesn’t repeat. Richard Garchitorena – Credit Suisse: Great. Thank you.

Michael Bless

Management

Thanks.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thanks for your interest.

Michael Bless

Management

Tom, any more questions?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Next question is from the line of Cyan Gosh from Millennium Partners. (Operator Instructions). Cyan Gosh – Millennium Partners: It’s (inaudible)

Michael Bless

Management

Hi, how do you do? Cyan Gosh – Millennium Partners: Good, good, how are you?

Michael Bless

Management

Well, thanks. Cyan Gosh – Millennium Partners: Good so far, sorry my apology that I jumped on to the call a little late, but I just wanted to get an update on your thinking on the raw material strategy going forward. If there was anything new, I mean on previous conference, I think you’ve articulated, but I think you probably look at some options to potentially get back some raw material integration if that made sense. Now, I just wondering if there was any update on that, especially given obviously the deal that you had with Noranda where you kind of sold your interest back to them? Sometime back.

Michael Bless

Management

As I think that as we’re talking many time, we’d like the upstream area and we continue to look at that in terms of material supply alumina particularly we’ve pretty well set up for the next three or four years. So, we don’t have an immediate exposure on that but in terms of our interest on the upstream bonus suitable basis of course. Cyan Gosh – Millennium Partners: Okay, got it. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Michael Bless

Management

Okay.

Shelly Harrison

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sal Tharani with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Sal Tharani – Goldman Sachs: Thank you. Just a housekeeping, the five or six special items you mentioned in the front I think the three charges and two credits, of these all – or how many of these are above the operating line?

Shelly Harrison

Management

When we say above the operate – let me just turn out and say that exactly where each one was, so the mark-to-market represents on its own line it’s called loss of forward contracts. We’re in the phase of the income statement. That earlier time is other income, the changes related to the board change, the treasury, the board change in the severance, that’s in SG&A as I said. The insurance claim would be in cost of sales. The revenues would benefits accounting around that line item, other operating expense and tax – the tax item of course is on tax provision line. Sal Tharani – Goldman Sachs: Great. Thank you very much.

Shelly Harrison

Management

No problem.

Michael Bless

Management

Sure, no problem.

Operator

Operator

And gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thank you very much for you all. Let me (inaudible) call today. We look forward to seeing you again after the third quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thanks.

Michael Bless

Management

Thanks Tom.