Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And also as a reminder today's teleconference is being recorded. At this time I will turn the conference call over to your host, Mr. Peter Trpkovski. Please go ahead sir.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thank you, Tony. Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the conference call. Today’s presentation is available on our Web site at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our Web site as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. I would also like to remind you that today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operations, and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today’s slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our Web site. And now, I’d like to introduce Mike Bless, Century’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks Pete and thanks to all of you for joining us as usual this afternoon. If you could move to Slide 4 please, we’ll get right to it. Shelly in just a couple minutes is going to give you a full update on the market environment obviously a critical issue for this call and otherwise, but just to put the comments I’ll make here in context. Let me just make a couple quick observations. The trends that we talk to about back in July on the same call that continued if anything that become more pronounced as you know. Dynamics in the market outside of China continue to be favorable for this sector. Demand development continues to look good and still we’re seeing no new capacity coming on ex-China and we firmly believe this won’t change. The net result currently is a deficit outside of China of about a million tons per year. Of course all this and more is wiped out with the metal that's currently coming out of China. The issue with regard in China has not abated. Domestic demand is weak. We share the point of view which you’ve read that it’s actually meaningfully weaker than it’s been publically reported. Capacity is not coming off nearly fast and in fact it's much the opposite as we continue to see uneconomic plans propped up by huge subsidies in various forms. The export of highly subsidized metal to develop markets has continued both directly and is secured. Products are being shipped in intermediate locations and then backward integrated i.e. melted down into primary metal as obviously no economic rationale for that type of activity. Our assessment is that this behavior is not accidental, but is delivered and decided strategy and that must be dealt with through various political provinces.…

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

Thanks Mike, if we move on Slide 5 please. I'll provide some comments to you on the industry environment. The cash LME price averaged $1,590 per ton in Q3. This reflect an additional $180 decline from Q2 and prices today are well below $1,500 per ton at the levels we haven’t seen since 2009 during the heart of the global financial crisis. Regional premiums continue to fall quarter over quarter, but it appears to have found some stability and have even ticked up a bit in the past few weeks both in the U.S. and in Europe. The Midwest premium is currently sitting at $0.075 per pound and the European duty paid premium is around $160 per ton. In the Western world we continue to see good demand growth driven primarily by our robust transportation sector. Aluminum used in Q3 grew by 2.6% in North America and 1.2% in Europe. Chinese aluminum demand continued to soften along with the broidery economic and grew at rate of 8% in Q3. While this still appears to be good demand growth on a very large base these levels are well below the low double digit growth rate we've seen out of China over the last decade. On a global basis demand growth showed a healthy 4.7% increase in Q3 but the real driver of our market right now is on the supply side. As we discussed last quarter oversupply coming out of China continues to weigh heavily on the aluminum market despite a significant decline at aluminum prices and premium over the last several quarters, we are not seeing any significant reduction in supply growth out of China and in Q3 Chinese production was actually up 12% as compared to the same period in 2014. The lack of smelter curtailments in China and…

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks Shelly, if we could turn to Slide 6 please, let me just take you through a quick review of the quarter that just ended. For Grundartangi you see we had a mixed performance on safety this quarter. First and foremost I should say how proud we are of the excellent performance at Hawesville given the situation at the plant. Just to review as you remember, we came out of the way obviously in June going into the quarter and the difficult situation that came out of that. Then of course we had uncertainty and significant work required to move the plant down to 40% of capacity as we announced a couple of weeks ago. And in this very difficult environment that the Management and employees work to keep themselves in each other’s faith and this should be absolutely commended for that. We also had a lot going to especially activities around returning the cash test to more normal operations and so in that context performance there was terrific as well. Uncharacteristically we had slightly worse performance quarter to quarter from Mt. Holly and Grundartangi on the safety side. Going down the chart here you can see production at Hawesville, no surprises there of course as we were working through the quarter to take the plant down to where it sits today at 40% of capacity and as you see the other plants were flattish quarter to quarter. Production efficiencies again moving down the chart here as you can see generally stable, again a commendable performance at Hawesville given the situation there and I would say the same about Mt. Holly given the growing uncertainty on the status of the power contracts. At the bottom of the page on conversion cost as you see Hawesville was essentially no change from…

Rick Dillon

Analyst

Thanks Mike, if we turn to Slide 7 of the presentation I’ll provide a few additional details on our financial performance in the third quarter. Our net sales were down 13% from the second quarter, reflecting the unfavorable market conditions we've discussed and lower sales volume at our North American operations. Looking at the market impact the two month lag basis the average cash LME price was down 5% and the Midwest transaction price was down 15% sequentially. Realized prices in the U.S. were down 12% in the third quarter reflecting the two-month lag pricing. Actual Midwest transaction price have declined approximately 12% since the end of the second quarter and the balance of this further decline will show up and realized prices in our fourth quarter results. For Iceland the all in two-month lag LME and European duty paid premium decreased approximately 13% in the third quarter consistent with the decline realized prices. On a consolidated basis, global shipments were down 1% in the third quarter of 2015 versus the second quarter. Iceland shipments were up 7% in the third quarter inclusive of 4,000 tons of finished goods that were awaiting shipment in Iceland at the end of second quarter due to the timing of sales costs. North American shipments were down 5% from the second quarter . The decrease is attributable to the decision to reduce operations at Hawesville resulting in lower shipments of approximately 9500 tons. Turning our attention to operating profit, we are reporting an adjusted EBITDA loss this quarter of $25 million a decrease of $76 million when compared to the $51 million adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2015. The adjustments include approximately $3 million in cost related to partial curtailment of Hawesville operations. Additional costs in the third quarter directly attributable to…

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks Rick. If you could just turn to Slide 9 please just like to give you a quick sense of what we'll be focusing on here over the next couple of months and then we’ll get right to your questions. So obviously critical to keep pushing the ball forward on attacking the significant issues playing in the sector on an overall basis. The price to us is obvious given the attractive demand picture in the sector. We’re convinced that a fair global market based upon economic realities would be a very attractive environment for primary aluminum producers over the coming years. At Mr. Holly as I said the situation is very fluid and thus it's difficult to predict what terms it might take here over the coming weeks. Again I want to say we’re absolutely committed to finding a solution to maintain operations at this truly excellent plant. Last we’ll continue to take actions necessary to set the company up as Rick was saying for a protracted weak environment. We got no intention to drive down on our liquidity to find losses at these plants. We're in a good position based upon current market conditions and even at somewhat lower commodity prices. And lastly we know well what needs to be done if we were to see further meaningful deterioration that we believe was going to sustained. And with that, Pete I think we can move to questions.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thanks Mike. Tony if you could go ahead and queue up the Q&A session please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] First question will come from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Hi, great. Thanks for taking my question. I actually just wanted to ask a quick question on this free cash flow breakeven number that you just mentioned. I think you said it was $0.69 a pound. So I actually had two questions, one how long will it take to get to that number and the second question I just want to clarify, does that include or exclude the premium I couldn’t quite understand what you said there?

Mike Bless

Analyst

So let me take it David. Thanks its Mike. It includes -- it's an LME equivalent number and the assumption is current premium, so about $160 bucks both Europe or $150 is in for both Europe and the USA. So it assume those premiums unless that $0.15, $0.25 your $0.69 sounds right is a direct LME comparable number. On your second question the Kentucky plants are largely where they need to be today. As I said there will be some additional reconfiguration that's taking place in the fourth quarter as well, but we’re almost there right now.

David Gagliano

Analyst

So beginning of 2016 we should be at that…

Mike Bless

Analyst

Before that but most defiantly.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay, all right great. That’s all I had thanks.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Okay, thanks David.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Next in queue is Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

Yes, good afternoon. I just have a question on Slide 7 what caused the revolver availability to decline from $123,000 to $100,000 over last quarter?

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

Yeah, Mike there were several things that contributed to that. Obviously lower prices and premiums will impact our receivables and inventory as well as lower production will impact it as well. One of the big drivers this quarter thought was it was at the absolute low point in the receivable cycle. Quarter end was actually the day we get paid on and so that can change from quarter to quarter, so that was also a contributing factor this quarter.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

Should you anticipate that to move back up in the fourth quarter?

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

There will be one extra day in the payable cycle mix this quarter. So there is a little bit of movement there obviously a lot of variables go into that depends on prices and other things, but just based on the payment cycle there should be a small improvement.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

And what’s the duration on the revolver?

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

The revolver goes through 2018.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

2020.

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

2020 yeah.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

2020 you said

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

2020. Yes.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] I actually do have a question coming in from [Jimmy] with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the call. Do you guys have any update as to the cost reductions you introduced last quarter you had $40 million to $64 million at the time, but I don’t see any update on this quarter.

Mike Bless

Analyst

It's a good question thanks. Those are all proceeding exactly. I guess there are two parts, those actions that we had implemented at that time and described to you on the July call was an important addition, I will get that in a sec, our proceedings exactly as we had expected. Of course the major change here is we have taken Hawesville down to a lower production level and so that the changes of basis of that whole presentation if you will or calculation but all of those actions about which -- those were all implemented in those in either done or in execution phase and so there has been no change there other than as I said that the change on the configuration of Hawesville.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright thank you.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question in queue will come from John Tumazos and you line is open. [Operator Instructions] open please proceed.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Thank you, with the effective the different cost reduction actions, would you estimate your profit and loss breakeven will be by the March to June quarter.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Rick, hi John it’s Mike, Rick gave you the EBITDA breakeven pardon me in terms of accounting profit and loss adding in depreciation and without what’s specially you are asking and I will try to answer that.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Earnings per share account, profit and loss.

Mike Bless

Analyst

We haven’t put that out John. I think you can work that from EBITDA you know the cost below the EBITDA line just to go over for everybody I guess Shelly or Rick will tell me if I get this wrong we obviously have interest expense of about $20 million on an annual basis. Depreciation is let's see here about $70 million annual thanks Rick, $70 million annualized, taxes are an estimated this at these LME levels, you're not paying many, many tax Shelly go ahead and

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

Especially in the U.S. and around breakeven levels that’s not going to be much in it either so assume zero for taxes and in Rick’s number got it cash covered interest. Nearly depreciation is going to be the big not in Rick’s number.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thank you of course she gives a cash break even number thank you for that.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Thank you.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks John.

Operator

Operator

Thanks at this time there is no additional questions in the queue, please continue. And actually as I speak we do have another one coming in from Paul Massoud with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Paul Massoud

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my last minute question I am just curious you know given me the eliminated run rate Grundartangi does that change maintenance CapEx rate going into the next year.

Mike Bless

Analyst

No, that is the good thanks Paul that’s a good question now that you asked we will just you know maintenance CapEx as we have said before and we have obviously confirmed this in discussion with all the plants recently as you would hope and expect are relatively low at these plants especially Grundartangi which is our newest plant. And so the answer to your question is no and I could expand maintenance CapEx for 2016 just strictly maintenance if were to make a decision to stop all discretionary CapEx you're talking about well under $50 million for the consolidated company.

Paul Massoud

Analyst

Thanks.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks

Operator

Operator

Thank you and presenters there is no additional questions at this time. Please continue.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Okay. Well then we do appreciate everybody's time again and we look forward to talking with you over the coming months. Take care.