Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 28, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session; instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Peter Trpkovski. Please go ahead.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thanks very much, Ernie. And good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. Today’s presentation is available on our website, www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company complying with Regulation FD. I would also like to remind you that today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operation and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today’s slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our website. And now, I’d like to introduce Mike Bless, Century’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks very much, Pete, and thanks to all of you for joining us this afternoon. If we could please turn to Slide 4 on your deck, I’ll give you a quick summary of what we’ve been working on here over the last couple of months. First, during this period, we see market conditions and trends that have remained reasonably consistent. Shelly is going to give you an overview of the industry in just a moment. I’d like to just make a couple of comments to put my comment about the business into some context. Demand as we’ve seen in most major markets has remained generally stable, has seen no major changes since we last spoke with you in April. The short-term spending by the Chinese government has been named, as you've read, it’s simulating their general economic conditions, is coming to an end for sure. At the same time, we're seeing potential retiring in some end markets in developed regions. We think these could be just seasonal in nature, but obviously we are watching them very closely for any more structural trends. On the supply side, production in China remained relatively stable during the first part of the year. This is exactly as was expected. That having been said, production has increased in each of the last several months and the market is still anticipating a significant built during the second half. This is from a combination of restarts and the addition of new capacity. Bottom line, the first half of this year saw the largest deficit in the primary aluminum business that we've seen in some time. But this is expected to reverse significantly due to the coming production increases in China; we're expecting to see that over the coming months. Again, Shelly will give you some more detail…

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. If we can move along to Slide 5 please, I’ll provide some comments here on the industry environment. The cash LME price averaged $1,571 per ton in Q2. This reflects a 3.6% increase over Q1. Price have been fairly volatile recently with spot reaching the highest $1,570 in this July, but then volumes at current price right around $1,600 per ton. Regional premiums continue to show weakness in Q2. Premium sold by about 10% quarter-over-quarter both in the U. S. and in Europe. Today, the Midwest premium is 6.75 cents per pound and the European duty paid premium is $718 per ton. For the first six months of 2016, the global aluminum market recorded a deficit of 0.5 million ton. This is the largest first half deficit in well over a decade. For concerns about the increasing Chinese supply is building demand in second half continue to be an overhead on the aluminum market. Local refinery product was up by just 1.5% in the second quarter. Over the back half of the year is expected to see much higher supply growth with new smelter projects and delayed restarts coming back online in China. Global aluminum demand grew to a rate of 5.2% in Q2 as compared to the year-ago period. We saw healthy Chinese consumption growth in the quarter driven by government stimulus spending. Chinese demand is expected to soften in the second half as government support begins to ease. Most industry experts continue to expect the global aluminum market to be reasonably well balanced in 2016 with a large surplus in China, resulting in significant exports to the Western world. Okay, just a couple of quick comments on the Alumina market before I hand it back over to Mike. Alumina prices peaked at about $260 per ton around the time of our Q1 call and then declined to the current level of $235 on the back of Chinese restart and declining - Chinese refinery restart and declining LME prices from when we last spoke in April. And with that I’ll hand it back to Mike.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks Shelly. And if we can turn to slide 6 please. Just a couple of comments on the operations. I'm starting from the top. We had a mixed quarter in safety over the last couple of months. It’s important to remember that all our plans continued to perform significantly better than industry norms, but as you see we did lose a little bit of momentum in the couple of key places. First and foremost the Kentucky plants continued their excellent performance this year and we’re extraordinarily proud of the commitment of the folks there and the results that they are producing. Grundartangi also continues to perform at a high level in safety, it’s only one more incident that we recorded in Q2 over Q1. Mt. Holly did see far too high a number of incidences in May and June versus their history and versus our expectations. Most of these were catalysts and their evidence to me at the stress of our people in this uncertain situation. We remain committed to an environment of zero series injuries in the company and thus we’re continuing to invest in this most important area. For example, we recently bought on board a very talented individual with a long history in the primary Alumina business and he is now leading our US efforts. Moving down the page to production, as you can see generally good progress here across the board. As we discussed with you in April, Hawesville has been working to reach a full pot count after we took the three pot lines down in the latter half of last year. That situation has been aggressively managed and as you can see the results here has been quite good. Same is true with Mt. Holly as we told you about in April when we…

Rick Dillon

Analyst

Thanks Mike. If you turn to slide 7 of the presentation, I will provide some details on our financial performance for the second quarter. Our net sales were up almost 3% from the first quarter reflecting favorable market conditions. On a two-month lag basis, the average cash LME price was up over 4% in the second quarter. However the Midwest premium decreased 5%, resulting at a Midwest transaction price increase of four approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter. Our realized prices in the US were up almost 3%, reflecting that increase in the Midwest transaction price. It’s important to note here that the average two-month lag LME price for the second quarter was approximately $1,544 per ton. Shelly spoke earlier of the recent volatility in the LME prices and the favorable spot pricing we have seen in July. The average two-month lagged LME price to date for the third quarter is almost $1600 per ton. As a result, we should realize more net favorable pricing in Q3. For Iceland, the all in two-month lag LME and European duty paid premium increased approximately 2% in the second quarter, consistent with our realized price increase. On a consolidated basis, global shipments were up 2% in the second quarter of 2016 and while production levels were essentially flat quarter-over-quarter. Turning our attention to operating profit, we reported adjusted EBITDA this quarter of $21 million, an increase of $19 million, compared to the $2 million of adjusted EBITDA reported for the first quarter. Just a few things to call out here. Lower raw material costs increased EBITDA by approximately $16 million during the quarter led by a significant decline in the real-life cost of Alumina in the second quarter. As a reminder, there is a one month to two month lag on Alumina cost realization depending on…

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks Rick, and I think Pete we can move pretty quickly to questions. Please be assured we’re going to be focused hard here over the coming months as we always are on operational execution of product quality. Our folks know very well that there’s absolutely no room for self inflicted wounds or anything like that in these difficult market conditions. From a strategic perspective we’ve got sort of two major issues here on the target over the next couple of months. The first, again it’s to pursue a structure that will work for Mt. Holly long-term and importantly will allow us to restart that second pot line and second we need to get to the finish line finally or I suppose push the ball over the finish line on the fair trade efforts. And with that Pete, I think we can move to questions.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thanks Mike. Ernie at this time please kick-off the Q&A session.

Operator

Operator

Thank. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll go to the line of Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead your line is open.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Hi guys, I just wanted to ask Mike maybe about the, well two things, your efforts you're seeing in terms of fair trade pushing it over the finish line and you did mention in your comments you were very close there, could you just talk exactly what you mean and obviously we’ve seen the benefits play out in steel, so I’m just trying to wonder for we could expect something similar in terms of tariff protection.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Yes. Sure, Jorge. So over the last couple of months, there is one thing that surprised me given my dearth of experience in this kind of thing, it’s just the amount of data that’s required. It’s an enormously analytic process and there is just literally reams and reams of data, most of which or much of which had to be translated from the Mandarin. So it’s just that the last efforts here really have been producing those data that are required because of course if a case is brought, the case needs to be a strong one and so it’s nothing more complex than that. As I said, we are optimistic that we are close here and - but it’s not in our hands ultimately that goes with us saying. In terms of tariffs brought, just a kind of touch on that. The first step here is just that the government, the administration would bring the case and that just sets emotion process that can take some time. And so any remedies whether [indiscernible] combinations thereof other things would be sometime and coming but the world would know that the case has been brought, that would be obviously very public upon inception.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Got it. So it sounds like this is still a ways off than in terms of any time, tariffs sound like they might be more of a 2018 type of outcome.

Mike Bless

Analyst

I think any tangible thing, the remedies in majority the practice, Jorge. I think that’s whether 2018 is right or not, it’s not in the next quarter two or three like that. But our view again is, as we said before is, we think the bringing of the case is an extraordinarily important milestone because that signifies to our market participants that the government believes that there is a strong case to be brought and that it’s – because if you look at the history, cases aren’t brought that don’t proceed and ultimately will end. And so we think it’s a very important signal that the case itself is brought even as you say correctly if a tangible, you didn’t use that word but I will, a tangible remedy is sometime [indiscernible].

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Okay. And then just on the recent news that Glencore was pulling out of its marketing of Sebree product. Can you just expand on that? Should we read anything into that? Is there going to be an incremental cost for you guys to market your own product and then does that have any impact on your alumina relationship with Glencore?

Mike Bless

Analyst

I think the easy answer to that question is you got to be careful what rumors [indiscernible].

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Okay. I’ll have to stop reading American Metals Market then.

Mike Bless

Analyst

We were scratching our head to be quite honest.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Okay. And then I thought I had another question but I guess I’ll just get back in queue. Thanks.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next we go to the line of David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Hi, just a follow-up on Jorge’s question, may I go on the trade side. Are you working in conjunction with other aluminum producers in bringing this case or is this on your own?

Mike Bless

Analyst

It wouldn’t be, David, technically we wouldn’t bring it, the government brings it and so the government is talking to lots of different industry participants about the case. As you know, our consortium itself – The China Trade Task Force, there is only a few members of that, it’s ourselves, Brazeway which is a major billet producer in the U.S. and of course the United Steelworkers. We believe that there will be other members announced quite soon in the next couple of weeks, but in terms of the case itself it’s the government that brings and we are well aware that the government is talking to lots of different industry participants.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Just on the Mt. Holly side, I was wondering if you could drill down similar line of question there, what are really specifically the next steps that we should be looking for or milestones things like that for decisions regarding Mt. Holly?

Mike Bless

Analyst

From a decision standpoint, David, I’ll answer the question I think maybe you’re asking, from a decision standpoint, we procure this power. So we own it through the end of 2017, it’s market based, same kind of pricing in terms as the contract gets expiring and we intent to run Mt. Holly and we are happy about that, and we’re entering the commercial season here that will be starting at the end of the summer into the fall with full confidence and we are confident our customers will have full confidence that Mt. Holly is going to run, it’s going to be a major billet supplier as it has been for years and years and years. So there is really no decision to be made for the next year and a half. Today, the issue is a longer term issue and barring any precipitous or [indiscernible] falling in the market. Of course and that’s why we needed to negotiate 60 day just to mitigate that kind of risk. But barring that, the issue that needs to be solved is a longer term issue and it’s because number one, at some point in time we’re not going to run the plant on the basis we’re running it today just from an operational satiability standpoint, cost structure standpoint. And two is, at some point in time, I don’t have to tell you, you’ve been following commodities long enough, if you are at the 78 percentile on your major cost, you can get pushed off there at some point in time, it just happen – I don’t have to tell you, that’s how the market works.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. So but you’re still – it’s the other 25% of the power I’m trying to?

Mike Bless

Analyst

That’s it. Okay, that – sorry, I said I was going to answer question, first you’ll ask and then I proceed.

David Gagliano

Analyst

No, no, that’s fine.

Mike Bless

Analyst

I apologize. So in the next couple of months, I think you should not expect to see anything there or they’ll be having a lot of private discussions and franchising discussions with people involved in the situation including we hope with the power companies itself because their portfolio is always changing, the situation is changing. So we intend to engage in a constructive dialog with them. They’ve always been willing to engage in a constructive dialog. We always haven’t seen eye to eye of what the results ought to be but they’ve always been more than, more than willing to meet and talk and listen to ideas and all that kind of stuff. And so that will be the next couple of months. Then, going into next year, another legislative session, who knows where it maybe but I wouldn’t look for anything tangible coming out of us on that 25% as you say over the next say quarter – at least the next quarter.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. And then just really quickly last question, I just missed it, what was the updated cash flow breakeven number again, LME number?

Rick Dillon

Analyst

It’s $0.15.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll go to the line of John Tumazos and would you please state your company please.

John Tumazos

Analyst

John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Hi, Mike.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Hi, John.

John Tumazos

Analyst

What is your best judgment as to the increase in Chinese output second half of this year compared to first half?

Mike Bless

Analyst

Yes, that’s a good question. It’s interesting. You look at the range of results there which was pretty – I’m just looking at the other day, that was pretty tight three or four months ago, the dispersion of those results has really widened out. I guess that’s not a great surprise. It’s going to be sell at least in the high single digits if not higher year-over-year, maybe higher than that.

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

Right. We’ve got a bunch of restarts that people have been anticipating and they’ve been slower than expected coming back on line but the expectation is that you’ll see those restarts in the second half as well the significant amount coming online from new project.

Mike Bless

Analyst

So I mean John it could be as high as some of the estimates that I’d seen. I wouldn’t say this is the most outlier but maybe towards the outlier of the spectrum have talked about full year of production growth average of course in that high single digit. So in order to get there, you’d have to be in the high double digits percent for the second half. So we’ll see, it seems to be changing every day as the market has a better opinion on whether a particular plan. I think most of the variability and the expectation show is on the restarts more than the new capacity.

Shelly Harrison

Analyst

That’s right.

Mike Bless

Analyst

But it’s coming. It’s going to be a way of, the only question is whether it’s a huge wave or two times done too.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Mike Bless

Analyst

John, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We do have a follow-up question from the line of Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Hi guys, just wanted to drill down on what was happening with Sebree, you had a flattish volume quarter-on-quarter, but you saw a 7% jump in the unit cost, so what’s behind that and should we expect things to normalize going forward?

Mike Bless

Analyst

Sure, Jorge. The volume was a big surprise as you know Sebree is producing at capacity, in fact a little nicely above its rated capacity. So we would also remind shoving away, we wouldn’t in a normal quarter expect much. There was actually – we don’t talk about this, actually that is on a per day basis, we give that right, Pete, so that’s adjusted to one [indiscernible] clean estimate. On the power, as I said, we are – specifically of that amount, 5 of those percentage points of that increase was just an increase in the power cost, the power price and that was due as you know as the June heating up and thus the MISO prices starting to increase. To answer your question, regrettably over the first of couple of weeks of July as we all know in the Northeast – who are in the Midwest to the Northeast, it’s been hot, I guess it’s been hot over most of the country and those prices have stated those levels. Now, we’ve started to see it nicely dissipate, come back down over the last couple of day where we hope to put some more data points behind that over the next couple of days. But as Rick said, we could – you could see reasonably higher power cost Q3 over Q2 in the Kentucky plants. And all you have to do there, Jorge, is you just – you can see it on your Bloomberg screen, if you look at Indiana Hub – MISO prices at the Indiana Hub and we pay generally a little bit less than that. We have generally at both plants a positive basis, so our positive differential.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Negative.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Negative. Pardon me. Thank you, Pete. So we are paying less than that negative basis, but it’s within let’s say, $1 megawatt hour. At Mt. Holly on the other hand, you want to watch natural gas prices, Henry Hub Natural Gas prices because our power flips based on that price.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Got it. Okay, thanks very much.

Mike Bless

Analyst

Thanks, Jorge.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And there are no further question in queue at this time, please continue.

Mike Bless

Analyst

We thank you all for participating this afternoon. And we appreciate your interest and we look forward to talking with you in a couple of months time, if not before. Take care.