Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 9, 2024

$59.08

-0.40%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Forum, and I will be your moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] It's now my pleasure to pass the conference over to our host, Ryan Crawford with Century Aluminum. Mr. Crawford, you may proceed.

Ryan Crawford

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Bialek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to slide 1, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward-looking statements and non-gap financial measures contained in today's discussion. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start the call today by reviewing our second quarter performance and providing some thoughts on the current market and environment, before turning it over to Jerry for the detailed financial results and then taking your questions. Our team produced excellent results in the second quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $34 million. Jerry will give you the full details here but we are really pleased with the continued strong operating performance across our plants. Overall, improving aluminum prices, both at the LME and regional premium level, drove increased profitability in the quarter and will continue to benefit our third quarter financial performance as the strong LME prices observed in the second quarter begin to roll through our lagged contractual pricing and financial results. We also reduced our outstanding debt by nearly $50 million in the quarter driving strong liquidity of over $340 million. Turning to slide 5, aluminum prices rose during the second quarter as stronger global demand, especially in China through both LME and regional premiums higher. Demand is strongest in areas relating to the green economy, especially in solar energy and other renewable and energy transmission applications. More recently, aluminum prices have retreated as broad macro concerns have weighed on markets. Over the longer term, we are confident that global trends towards electrification and lightweighting will continue to drive increased demand for aluminum. When paired with inventory levels that remain near historic lows and little expected aluminum supply growth over the next several years, it is easy to see why aluminum markets remain in steep contango and we continue to believe our assets are well placed to benefit from short aluminum markets in the US and Europe. Turning to alumina, the API rose significantly during the quarter with Q2 prices…

Jerry Bialek

Analyst

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to Slide 7 to review second quarter results. On a consolidated basis, second quarter global shipments were approximately 168,000 tons, slightly lower than last quarter due to typical finding fluctuations. Realized prices increased versus prior quarter, driven by higher metal prices and regional delivery premiums resulting in net sales of five $61 million, a 15% increase sequentially. Looking at Q2 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $34 million. This was a sequential increase of $9 million, mainly driven by higher realized metal prices and regional premiums. Adjusted net income was $1 million or $0.01 per share. The main adjusting items were add-backs of $4 million for share based compensation and $2 million for the unrealized impact of forward contracts. Partially offset by a $2 million deduction per lower of cost or net realizable value on inventory. We improved liquidity to $343 million by the end of the quarter. This is the strongest liquidity position in nearly a decade and consists of $41 million in cash and $302 million available on our credit facility. Turning to Slide 8 to explain second quarter sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA. In total adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $34 million. Realized LME of $2,288 per ton was up $98 versus prior quarter, while realized U.S. Midwest premium of $416 per ton was up $7 and European delivery premium of $284 per ton was up $61. Together higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed an incremental $22 million compared with the prior quarter. Aluminum production costs were mixed as higher LME market prices increased power costs for our Iceland smelter by $4 million. As a reminder, the power expense for our Iceland smelter is mostly linked to LME prices. Realized coke prices decreased $31 per ton and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Lucas, your line is now open.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Thank you very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Jesse, I wanted to get your perspective on the power markets. There's been a lot of excitement out there on the need for power in AI. We saw very constructive PJM auction last week. You are long power at hospital with about 500 megawatts and so, I wondered how you think about the optionality around that power infrastructure today and if there has been any interest from third parties. Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Yes, hi Lucas. Thanks for the question. Obviously, we as you know, we're constantly looking at the power markets, both here in the US and Europe and really around the world, watching for trends and what's going on out there. Obviously, we are aware of a lot of the storyline around the AI build out and really quite substantial estimates of energy required to power all of that. With our own assets of course, we're always looking at all alternatives and especially with our curtailed assets in order to figure out how we maximize value. And so I guess what I would just say with Hawesville, we continue to think it's a great adoption on higher aluminum prices in the future. But in the end, we'll maximize value of that asset and whatever form that may come in is what we'll pursue.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Jesse, I appreciate that color. That's helpful. Thank you. I'll follow up on 45X. It's been pretty quiet in terms of kind of incremental guidance from treasury. One, have you -- any update from your side -- anything that you might be able to share at this point in terms of a timeline for additional guidance? And then two, there has been increased attention to the new smelter development and are you able to move forward with that development in the absence of kind of full clarification from treasury on what is going to be included in 45X? Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Lucas. Yes as you might imagine, we continued to engage with the administration on 45X and in many of the same ways that we talked about on previous calls. You know we think both the timing of the ultimate final regulations as well as the inclusion of raw materials and the ultimate calculations are very important for the US industry. And so we've continued to have those discussions. I don't really have an updated timeline for you at this time. But I would just say we continue to be very engaged and we're very thankful from the administration for their continued engagement on this matter. I think everyone recognizes the importance of the aluminum industry in the United States and moving forward with that in mind.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

All right. We'll stay tuned. Jesse, I'll try to squeeze one last one in with the with the Mt. Holly restart of the last 25%. Can you speak a little bit to the margin profile of those incremental volumes? Would those be kind of above below in line with your current EBITDA margin profile? Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure. Good question, Lucas. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we continue to do work on that project and we continue to monitor macro conditions as well and put all of those things together in terms of looking at the timing of that restart. But to your specific question on margins as we probably talked about in the past those last tons those incremental tons out of smelter are always the most profitable tons. If you continue to spread what are really compared to other industries pretty large fixed costs over those incremental tons and get the benefit from a margin perspective. So as I said in the past it's really a project we would like to do. And it's one that we continue to get ready for and when the time is right we remain confident in our ability to execute that.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Jesse, I appreciate the call. I'll turn it over for now. All the best of luck.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, Lucas.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Katja Jancic with BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on Jamalco there were some reports that the refinery declared force majeure. Can you talk a bit more if that is correct and why would that be if the volumes or the shipments are normal?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Yes, that is correct Katja. And of course you declare force majeure for a variety of reasons. As we said our main port of export which is Rocky Point is out of commission right now and we are running through an alternative port right now. And so the force majeure really related to that setup going forward. But as I said the plant is back to full production and we continue to have those alternative port solutions in place and to export Alumina off island.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

So shipments are going as normal right now?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Yes, we don't expect a material impact to our results or to not with results going forward. You can't say they're exactly as normal when they're running out of an alternative port but we're continuing to make exports from the island.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Okay. And then maybe on to -- as a follow up to Lucas' question about hospital. Have you looked at -- there's obviously there's a lot of questions about the power and have you looked at if that would be an option from a perspective? Would the utility or your agreement with the utility allow that?

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Yes, I do might recall Katja both Kentucky plants have fairly unique energy arrangements where through a variety of contractual ranges we have access to what is essentially the wholesale markets in MISO. And so that's been a very advantageous arrangement for us and sporades [ph] with a lot of flexibility over time. And so if we look at both the future of possible from a variety perspectives we continue to think that flexibility will be advantage for us no matter what the outcome ultimately is.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jesse Gary

Analyst · BMO. Katja, your line is now open.

Thanks, Katja.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes in the line of Timna Tanners with Wolf Research. Timna, your line is now open.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Yeah. Thank you, and good afternoon. Why don't you ask a little bit more about the situation at Jamalco? Is it entirely benign, like doesn’t have impact on Q3, and is there any insurance collectible on an issue like this? I’m just wondering a little more color.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure, yeah. I mean, we were definitely impacted, right? That's what we said in the press release and that's what we've said on this phone call. As we said, a portion of the alumina conveyed at the port was blown away. At the plant itself, we really haven’t had any impact other than sort of taking the plant down as part of our hurricane preparations and then bringing it back up. But, like I said, we're back at full production today. So, while we, of course, would've preferred that the hurricane skirted the island to the south more than it did, I think the team has really done a good job making it work while we get the repairs done at our port at Rocky Point and sort of making these alternative shipping arrangements work. There is, of course, some impact. We lost some volume while we took the plant down for a few days and while we brought it back up. But it’s really not material overall to our financial results.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. Back to Mt. Holly, is it fair to say that if we're here past the middle of the year and you're still mulling it over, that you probably wouldn’t see a restart imminently? Or can you give us a little bit more color about what you're looking for to make that decision?

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Yeah. So, as with any restart anywhere in the world, we look at a variety of factors, whether the market has come to that volume at the time, what the return profile is on the CapEx that would go in to enable the restart, what global aluminum prices are, what the Midwest premium is, what value-added premiums are. And so it's really a multivariable analysis. And what we've been focused on is just bringing down the time to restart once we do make that decision. And so, we talked on previous calls about shortening supply chains for things we need, making sure we can get the materials, making sure we have the people, and making sure we have the energy -- all of those things that we've been working on over the past few months. And then, when the time's right, we'll be ready to act. But I think, as I said on the last call, no matter what the decision is, I don’t think you’ll see a lot of CapEx requirements from us on that project in 2024.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. And if I could just ask one high-level question, I’m just curious about your thinking on the broader aluminum markets. I know you had some prepared remarks on this, but it’s been really baffling that aluminum goes up and straight back down, while aluminum continues to march forward. And it’s a great thing that you have the Jamalco as a hedge now, but I mean, how sustainable is this or what have we seen in the past about how long this lasts? If I recall, it’s not usually that long, but I’m just wondering if there could be any action to see a change in the dynamic here that’s so unusual.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Yeah. It’s a good point. We haven’t seen this relatively high alumina price to aluminum price, which is somewhere in the mid-20% today on what we call an LME percentage basis. And so, we do think that should be supportive of the aluminum price from here. And the shortage in the aluminum market is quite real today. It is quite tight out there, and that’s really what’s been driving up the price, and that’s for some structural reasons. We’ve seen shutdowns in Australia. We’ve seen increasing regulation of alumina production in China. And so, the market is relatively tight for alumina. And over time, as I said, we’re in the mid-20% now in the relationship of alumina to aluminum. Traditionally, that’s more in the mid-teens. So, it really is quite a high relationship and really should be supportive of the aluminum price from here.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. That’s it for me. Thanks for the thoughts.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Great.

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thanks, Timna.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question. There are no questions waiting at this time, so I will pass back for any closing remarks. Thank you.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, everybody, for joining the call.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's Century Aluminum Company's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.