Harvey Schwartz
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your question please
Thanks Alex. Well, maybe take a step back for a minute because obviously, the market had an unexpectedly strong reaction to the outcome. I think that has a lot to do with expectations, obviously going in. David was on TV yesterday, David Rubenstein, and he made a comment. He said something got the effect of the losers in this process were the posters. And he said, maybe we need to get AI involved in the polling process. And now taking that quite seriously, coming into this election, there were concerning headlines about the fact that we might not have a result for days, if not weeks, possibly months. That creates a lot of uncertainty in CEO's minds in how they think about strategy, how they think about committing capital, making decisions. And I think the election certainty and having the outcome behind was a obviously very significant relief factor for the market. Now, from a policy perspective, whether it's sustained or further cuts in the tax regime, whether it's a lighter regulatory touch, all these things will get translated in CEOs' minds, Boards or portfolio companies in really confidence around the operating environment, and that will lead to more decision-making. It should lead to more M&A activity. If you're not quite certain whether or not you can get your transaction done from a strategic perspective, obviously, that gives you a lot of pause as a Board. And so I think this is what the market is reacting to. Now, in terms of our business, we're already seeing lots of tailwinds in the business. You see it in the numbers today. A big part of that is the strategic actions the management team has taken. A big part of that is the market environment. And when we saw the stability of interest rates flattening out, I just think election certainty, future policies plus Fed policy normalizing. I think Fed policy normalizing and being past the election, that's a pretty powerful one-two punch for markets and for our business specifically at Carlyle.