Earnings Labs

Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 20, 2024

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Transcript

Allie Summers

Management

[Abrupt Start] -- our remarks as part of our fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings press release, which is posted on our Web site at choicehotels.com under the Investor Relations section. This morning, Pat Pacious, our President and Chief Executive Officer will speak to our fourth quarter operating results and full-year highlights; while Scott Oaksmith, Chief Financial Officer, will discuss our financial performance and 2024 outlook. Joining us also today for the Q&A portion of the call is Dom Dragisich, Executive Vice President, Operations and Chief Global Brand Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we'll be glad to answer your questions. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Pat.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Thank you, Allie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to join us. 2023 was a year of accelerating growth. We delivered record financial performance as we exceeded the top end of our guidance with a 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $540.5 million, a 16% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $6.11, and unit growth ahead of our expectations led by our successful strategy of adding hotels that generate higher royalties per unit. In 2023, we significantly expanded our rewards program, increased our geographic reach, unlocked new value to our platform capabilities, and created step function growth through the rapid completion of the Radisson Americas' integration. This positive momentum combined with projected unit growth acceleration and supported by our superior hotel conversion capability gives us confidence in achieving our expected adjusted EBITDA growth of 10% in 2024, which is captured in our current guidance range. I will begin today by discussing what drove our impressive fourth quarter and full-year 2023 results, and then discuss our proposal to acquire Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, because it is the growth drivers of our current business that underpin the confidence we have in our ability to unlock the significant value for shareholders, franchisees, and guests that we see in the combination with Wyndham. Our distinct growth strategy, supported by our best-in-class franchising business engine drove adjusted full-year 2023 EBITDA 13% higher than the prior year, and 45% higher than in 2019. This continues our consistent track record of delivering double-digit profitability growth year after year. We have positioned the company to build on this performance in 2024, and beyond, as we continue to grow our franchise business with hotels that generate higher royalties per unit, while leveraging the investments we've made in our systems to further improve the franchisees'…

Scott Oaksmith

Management

Thanks, Pat and good morning, everyone. Today, I will discuss our fourth quarter and full-year 2023 results, update you on our balance sheet and capital allocation, and provide our outlook for 2024. Throughout my remarks today, I would like to note that all figures are inclusive of the Radisson Americas portfolio and exclude certain one-time items, including Radisson Americas integration costs, as well as transaction pursuit costs, which impacted our reported results. For full-year 2023, a combination of higher than expected growth of the Choice legacy portfolio across our more revenue intense brands and markets, strong effective royalty rate growth, successful integration of the Radisson Americas portfolio, and the robust performance of our platform, procurement and international businesses drove full-year adjusted EBITDA of $540.5 million which exceeded our full-year guidance. Our full-year adjusted EBITDA represents a new record eclipsing the $0.01 last year, increasing 13% compared to 2022 and growing 45% compared to the same period of 2019, which was our pre-pandemic peak. Even excluding the contribution from Radisson Americas, our full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA grew over 8% on a comparable basis year-over-year. Our full-year 2023 adjusted EPS also exceeded our previously issued guidance reaching $6.11 per share, a 16% increase year-over-year. For the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022, our adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to $125 million and our adjusted EPS increased 14% to $1.44 per share. Let me turn to our key revenue levers, which include our unit growth, royalty rate and RevPAR performance. In terms of unit growth, our strategic goal has been to accelerate quality room growth across more revenue intense brands and markets, while simultaneously growing our effective royalty rates, which ultimately results in an outsized increase in royalties. In addition to our mix shift strategy for the broader portfolio,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. If we could, Pat, Dom, and Scott, if we could start with just a little bit more around the Wyndham offer. I guess specifically at this point where it seems like the terms that have been set out remain largely stable up until we probably reach more details around the proxy content. I'm just wondering could you, for everybody's viewpoint, could you help us think a little bit more about any chance or opportunity to improve the economics of an offer from here? And how will feedback work during the proxy process? What I mean by that is if you start receiving feedback at some point that the offer is just not sufficient to get the votes that you might want to achieve, can you adjust that offer during the proxy process or maybe how do the mechanics work around that? Are you free to do that at any point in time? Thank you.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Sure, thanks, Shaun, appreciate the question. I think when you look at where we stand today; unfortunately Wyndham's Board really just continues to refuse to engage. So, to your first point about willingness to improve the offer, we said this multiple time, the door remains open to Wyndham to engage in a constructive private dialogue with us. And we believe there's opportunity to improve our offer if they'll engage with us, that's the first thing. And the second is, allow us to undertake some due diligence. So, those have always been the key factors here, I think, that are in play. Regarding your question on feedback, I mean the good news about what we did October 17, when we brought our proposal public, and then on December 12, when we launched the exchange offer, is it's given us an opportunity to speak directly with Wyndham's shareholders. And we've gotten great feedback from them around what they like about the offer, and where they might like to see an additional improvement in the offer. And I think the feedback we've heard from them is around one word, they're frustrated. They're frustrated that Wyndham's Board is not engaging in a conversation that would help answer those questions. I think when you look at are proxy versus the exchange offer, let's not forget about the fact that, during the exchange offer, that's been a blueprint for Wyndham's shareholders to provide us with great feedback. They have the opportunity to tender their shares, up until the exchange offer expires, which is currently 5 o'clock New York City time on Friday, March 8. So, there's opportunity for the shareholders to continue to express their interest with us around the transaction. And also, for us to hear feedback from them around how they view the offer that's on the table.

Scott Oaksmith

Management

And Shaun, the only thing I'd just add, and thinking about the process proxy process, what we've done is now made a slate of directors -- and independent slate of directors that we believe that would want to negotiate with us on the deal. So, the deal could continue to change with a board that's willing to negotiate with us. So, a voting for the slate of directors is really a vote for a board that's willing to engage in a dialogue to see if we can create value in this transaction.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst

Great, thanks. And maybe just one on the business fundamentals, but obviously there is a lot in here about the acceleration you saw in net unit growth. And it seems like a decent amount of that hinges on some improvements in international. Just wondering if you could talk about sort of contract economics in some of these international deals and partnerships we may be able to add to the pipeline there. Are these largely similar to your domestic franchise economics? Or are these running through master partnerships, and some place where the economics may be a little bit different or a little bit inferior to what you see in the domestic business?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, and it's a healthy mix, Shaun. As you know, we have -- in some markets we do direct franchising. We do that in markets where the regulatory environment is favorable for franchising, where small business people can aggregate capital and make investments. And so, that's where -- those are markets where direct franchising as far as that we've seen growth starting to pick up in those markets. And then, we've also, when you look at the economics of the master franchise agreements, those are usually a little bit different to your point. And if you look at what we did with the extension of our agreement with our partner in Scandinavia, Spain, in particular those are more of sort of master franchises as opposed to direct franchising businesses. So, the economics are a little bit different, but we're really excited about the growth we're seeing, particularly in those direct franchise markets in the Americas and in Australia.

Scott Oaksmith

Management

Yes, I think, Shaun, just to add to that, there's the ones we mentioned in our script, the remarks, our growth in France and in Spain are all direct markets. So, more similar economics to what we have in the U.S. than a master partner.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst

Thank you both.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Please go ahead.

Michael Bellisario

Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. You mentioned continued progress on the regulatory front. And can you be more specific there? What progress has been made? Have you finalized your initial submission yet to the FTC? And if you haven't, what's the estimated timing there?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, thanks, Michael. I think when you look at where we are today; the second request began about six weeks ago, so we are well into that process. As we've stated before, that a second request is not uncommon. And we're continuing to work very constructively and cooperatively with the FTC on it. We're making a lot of progress on that front. We don't see any surprises. And as we said before, we remain confident in our ability to complete this process as part of the transaction in that customary timeframe.

Michael Bellisario

Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead.

And then just one follow-up there, maybe any examples that you could provide of things they've asked for or the types of questions and comments that they're looking for answers on?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, I mean they start with what's called sort of a broad request for information. And then, as the process moves forward, they'll narrow it down into areas that they want to understand greater. But as we said before, I think part of what they're learning is very in my view, supportive of a transaction. The first is that this is a very competitive marketplace. The lodging industry is a makeup of independent hotels, online travel agencies, a lot of large well capitalized competitors. So, they're looking at that. Second, they're looking at pricing. And as we said before, Wyndham and Choice do not set price, our franchisees do, and that is a very healthy factor with regard to regulatory issues. They're looking into how the OTAs play in this industry. And as we've said before, one of the compelling reasons for putting our two companies together is to drive down the cost of running a hotel and ultimately reliance on expensive third-party distributors. So, they're learning about some of the specifics of the industry, how pricing works for the consumer, and ultimately really competitive nature of the spaces where we compete. And they also not just are looking at status quo, they're looking at a lot of what our competition is doing and how the competitive landscape is evolving. So, a lot of the questions they are asking are around, new brand launches from really well capitalized competitors in the segments where we currently compete today. So, it's a broad effort at the beginning and as they move through that discovery process, we would expect those questions will narrow down. But we're six weeks in. It's probably at the sort of peak of the level of effort. And as we get closer to being substantially compliant with the second request, we would expect that the FTC and Choice and Wyndham would be narrowing, but the list of issues to be dealt with.

Michael Bellisario

Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thanks for that detail. And then, just one more for me just on the fundamentals, the flat to 2% RevPAR growth outlook, how are you thinking about the quarterly cadence in 2024? And when might the year-over-year growth rate flip from negative to positive? Thanks.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Thanks, Michael. In terms of RevPAR, we still think the long-term fundamentals for travel remains strong. So, if you look at a macro basis, supply growth is still expected to be relatively muted in the industry growing less than 1%. But GDP, consumer spending, both expected to grow over 2% in 2024 and unemployment still remains at historical lows. So, we're feeling confident Americans are still prioritizing their travel budgets with 80% of Americans planning to travel this year and most expecting to increase the amount they're spending on travel. So, we think the business has quite bit of room to grow. We're still below in terms of occupancy, our pre-pandemic levels. So, where we believe is the first quarter will be again some tougher comps, but we should start to see positive RevPAR growth in kind of the middle of the second quarter and then growing to that 2% we guided to.

Michael Bellisario

Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead.

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey thanks. Maybe, two follow-ups on the FTC questions, how would you think about remedies if it does go down that path? And then what's the willingness or thought process on litigating if the FTC doesn't see things your way?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Well, I think Stephen, it's important to just start off with our view of the regulatory environment, it's based in fact and legal precedent, and so, when we look at what the conversations with the FTC might be, I don't want to speculate on where that might go. As we've said publicly, we are willing to make any changes that aren't materially having an impact on the transaction. But what we've stated before and what we're seeing currently, those are not things that we are focused on today. And then, as I said I'm not going to speculate on where things might go. But we feel really confident, as I said about how we view the regulatory environment. If you look at the presentation we put out on January 10th, I think you'll see there that it's based, as I said in legal fact and precedent around how the antitrust environment should be viewed in this combination. The facts for every case are different, and we feel really confident in our view of how things will progress on that front.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Great. And maybe on fundamentals, can you just help us tie out the lower EPS growth versus EBITDA growth and perhaps even loop in your expectations for free cash flow conversion and the puts and takes there in 2024 and perhaps longer term?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, Steve. Really the difference between the EBITDA growth and I assume you're referring to Q4 versus the guidance?

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

I'm averaging your 2024 outlook. If I just look at 10% roughly in the midpoint EBITDA growth, but low single-digit EPS growth.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, really the difference there is really interest expense and a slightly higher tax rate. So, our debt is up about $300 million year-over-year kind of on average about half of that. The combination of higher rates that we incurred during 2023 and a slightly higher debt level as we get back to our targeted leverage levels. And then, our tax rate is at 24.5%. We had a few discrete items on some reversals of reserves in the fourth quarter that lowered our tax rate in 2023 that we don't expect to incur in 2024.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

And then, from a free cash flow standpoint, I mean are there any big puts and takes to think through whether it's key money that's going to be coming to fruition or I think there was also some affiliate investments, things like that?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes. In terms of the way we define free cash flow, we expect free cash flow to be similar to 2023. Our key money should be generally in the same range that we spent in 2023, so a slight increase in key money. But our free cash flow conversion should be consistent between 2023 and 2024.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. I wanted to just get a clarification. Your global pipeline you mentioned was up 6% sequentially. Can you tell us what was year-over-year? Just the number is not in the '22 press release last year, so just to calculate the year-over-year change in global pipeline. And then, also looking at your, what you call the revenue intense segments that that grouping of upscale and extended stay and midscale? It looked like sequentially or there wasn't really an increase in those sequentially or not a lot of rooms there opening in Q4. Was that just something specific just to that quarter or just something seasonal to keep in mind or maybe just something one-time in Q4? Thanks.

Patrick Pacious

Management

So Robin, you cut out a little bit your second part of the question. In your first part I'll answer the first part, maybe you could repeat the second part. In terms of the global pipeline, our global pipeline from the end of the year was basically flat, just about 106,000 rooms down to 105,000 rooms. And really that was a reflection of really the strong openings that we had during the year. And I think we talked about this on the last quarterly call, but we did have a cleanup of some of our pipeline in early Q1 of 2023 where we have taken a look at some contracts where, because coming out of the pandemic we didn't think we're going to open in our new construction pipeline, knowing that it was a strong conversion environment where we could fill those markets with existing hotels. We made the one-time decision to terminate some hotels knowing that we could sell into those markets and quickly realize those revenue streams. So, we've been focused on the sequential quarter-over-quarter growth, which we talked about was up 6% on a global basis. You made a comment about Q4, but unfortunately the audio cut out a little bit. So, could you repeat that question?

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Sure. Yes, the Q4 was just, your commentary about what you call the revenue intense segments, the extended stay and upscale and midscale, it looked like openings in Q4 were sort of were that there weren't really openings sequentially in Q4 from Q3 in those groupings. And I'm just wondering if that was seasonal or something just specific to Q4 that just kind of what's behind that? Thanks.

Patrick Pacious

Management

And actually Q4 is typically our largest openings quarter, quarter-over-quarter. So, when you look at our September 30 results into December 31, we actually saw strong growth in all of our revenue intensive brands. Comfort brand, WoodSpring brand, all of our extended stay brands had quarter-over-quarter growth. So, happy to take offline with what you're looking at, but we saw strong opening growth, including the full-year growth of 13% in our openings.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay.

Scott Oaksmith

Management

Yes, Robin, I see about 104 Q4 openings. That was a 4% increase year-over-year. So, that's that we can take it offline.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. I was just looking at sequential. Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Greff with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Joe Greff

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everybody. Your royalty fees grew just under 9% year-over-year in 2023, actually royalty licensing and management fees that $513 million level. If I reverse engineer your 2024 outlook, I'm getting to something that's an accelerating level of growth in that line item. Is that how you're looking at things based on some of the drivers that you've given some of the drivers that maybe are underlying that overall assumption for EBITDA growth?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, if you take a look at our drivers this year, so our RevPAR was that increase for the full-year of 0.1%. Our revenue intensive unit growth was about 1.8%. And we grew our effective royalty rate in the mid-single digits. So, we are expecting a slight acceleration of that with RevPAR increasing 1%, our revenue intensive net unit growth being at approximately 2%. And the royalty rate should be effectively about flat year-over-year as far as the terms of growth, but up mid-single digits again. So, there is some acceleration in that. We also -- there is a small portion of our corporate credit card that's in there and the licensing fees that will be driving a piece of that number as we continue to realize the benefits from the co-branded credit card with Wells Fargo. And then, lastly, strong international growth continued in that number should make that number grow a little bit faster pace than it did in 2023.

Joe Greff

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Got it. So, that 9% growth rate in royalties and other fees should grow at a faster rate in 2024. Just making sure I'm hearing you correctly.

Patrick Pacious

Management

The overall percentages may not be there. We have some a little bit in the 2023, that royalty rate, that royalty number percentage was against a Radisson acquisition that only had a little over Q4 and a little partial Q3. But if you look at the fundamentals, it's kind of the year-over-year of our portfolio, the unit growth, the RevPAR, and the effective royalty rate all should grow at a faster pace. That 9% is, again, 2023 compared to 2022 when we acquired Radisson in August of 2022. So, that number would have been higher in 2023 than it will be in 2024.

Joe Greff

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Got it. And just going now a couple of questions on the Wyndham proposal, I think it was Pat earlier in your prepared remarks you referenced that you think we have confidence in a deal that could close in a customary time frame. Can you put a little bit more flesh on the bone on that comment and is that thinking different today versus a few months ago after having additional interactions with regulatories?

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, sure, Joe. In fact, we're three months from all of that, so yes, we're getting actually closer to it. When we say the customary timeframe, we have been saying 12 months, but as I said, now we're six weeks into the second request on the regulatory front. And that's going to be the long pole in the tent. And that's when we look at it from a second request to a final outcome, we've been told to expect anything from six to nine months. So, as we're six weeks into that six to nine month timeframe, that's getting closer. And that's actually the thing, when we talk to Wyndham shareholders, they just want to understand not just around the regulatory environment itself, but also the timeframe involved in it. It's the reason, or one of the reasons we put the exchange offer in place was to get the regulatory process moving, which we did in early December. So, here we sit late February, we're getting closer to having some clarity for shareholders around that regulatory question and more importantly, the timing of it. So, that's what we've been told to sort of expect from just precedent and sort of how long these processes take. But if you're looking at that six to nine-month timeframe from January 12th when the second request began, we're moving pretty rapidly down that path.

Joe Greff

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Great. And then, a follow-up on your work on the pursuit of Wyndham, to what extent are -- Pat, are you, management, the board, your advisors working on finding potential buyers of newly issued equity in a pro forma company that helped fund a deal with, say, a greater cash consideration than what you have on the table now and also would then lower pro forma debt. Obviously, that kills two of three concerns, i.e. not regulatory, but two or three concerns get mitigated from Wyndham's perspective. It's also hard not to recognize that you brought in Goldman kind of later in the process at the -- at some point at the end of last year. So, to what extent is that a priority and to what extent can you share with us conversations on selling new equity and whether Stewart would be potentially involved in investing more into a pro forma company.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes, Joe, you're going to quite imagine I'm not going to negotiate with you, but we'd be happy to have the conversations you just laid out with the Wyndham Board if they would in fact engage with us. I would say from the get-go, we've been looking at really three things here, which is what is the price that is the right price to pay? As we said from the beginning, we're offering Wyndham a premium and an earnings multiple, the implied earnings multiple that they've never achieved before. So, we feel like we're good on that. The mix between equity and cash is something, as we've talked to their shareholders, they like the transaction and they like the equity. So, providing the equity and the cash mix is something that we feel like we're at a good place today. There's certainly an opportunity to look at that a second time as we get into an engagement with them. And certainly the leverage that we think both businesses can handle is pretty high given that high free cash flow generating characteristics that we see here. So, there's opportunity to look at this. So, I can tell you we've looked at a lot of different factors to get to the right mix of those three issues. But I think when you look at the offer that we have on the table today, when you look at the feedback we've gotten from the Wyndham shareholders with regard to getting a transaction done, there is a high level of confidence that we're in that range of a good offer that's on the table. And as I said, that offer can be improved if we get two things, engagement, and due diligence.

Joe Greff

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Meredith Jensen with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Meredith Jensen

Analyst · HSBC. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. I was wondering if you could speak a little bit more about the retention rate, maybe by chain scale and domestic and international, just sort of breaking it down a little bit and maybe a look over time and what maybe some goals are. And then, I was looking back at something from last quarter you had mentioned, a strategic partnership in Mexico, and I was wondering if that is just part of some of the other discussions or I just wanted to match that up with some of the international growth strategies mentioned today. Thanks.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Sure, Meredith. I think when you look at our retention rate, I mean we've historically had a very high retention rate, 97%, 98% is what it sits today. Obviously, we are looking to constantly improve our brands. And there are times when the franchisees are either not willing to invest in a brand or are taking their hotel and making it into an alternative use. So, those are generally high drivers of where we see franchisee churn. And a lot of that is occurring, particularly the non-hotel use conversion is occurring in that economy transient segment. So, that's where you see a higher churn rate than you do in the other segments that we operate in.

Dominic Dragisich

Analyst · HSBC. Please go ahead.

Yes, in terms of international, I would say our churn rate is similar to the U.S. Most of our brands overseas are ring brands, so don't have the high churn that we have in the economy segment. So, if you model out this similar churn rate as our revenue-intensive brands, that would be a good starting point. As Pat mentioned, we are guiding to revenue-intensive unit growth of up 2%. And while we will see our economy units decline with the overall industry, we do expect to have positive overall net unit growth for the year in 2024.

Patrick Pacious

Management

And I think with regard to your question for the partnership in Mexico, that's an opportunity that I would place it more in the category of a platform opportunity, similar to what we do with Bluegreen and what we had with the AMR portfolio several years ago. It's really an opportunity to have their distribution on our platform and have our customers have an earn and burn opportunity through the loyalty program.

Meredith Jensen

Analyst · HSBC. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. And just to -- on the Bluegreen point, you had mentioned last quarter that you had anticipated that after the sale, the partnership would continue just as it has, and it seems like from your comments that continues to be the case. We should just assume it goes on despite the change.

Patrick Pacious

Management

That's correct.

Meredith Jensen

Analyst · HSBC. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist. Please go ahead. Patrick Scholes, your line is open. Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead. Patrick Scholes, your line is open. Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hey. Thanks everyone for taking my questions. First one is just on RevPAR. Your Q4 RevPAR domestically came in, was below we had sort of thought was implied by STR's chain scale results. And then, full-year guide flat, up 2 also below STR's forecast which for midscale and upper midscale was closer to 3%. So, I guess I am curious if one, in the fourth quarter if there was any sort share loss or anything else you want to call out. And then, looking forward, do you have sort of different outlook on the U.S. which is conservative? Or, how would you describe your particular outlook for RevPAR?

Scott Oaksmith

Management

Yes, in terms of fourth quarter, I think really we had really tougher comps. As we said we said in our scripted remarks that we were the first hotel company that returned and exceeded the 2019 level. So, when you look at our Q4 results against 2019, we are up 13% which is the leader in the industry. So, we didn't see anything different than the industry. I just think our comps were tougher there. In terms of the full-year, I would say we're probably a little bit conservative on our guidance compared to STR in 2024. We do see a lot of, as I mentioned earlier, the long-term fundamentals. The growth that we expect to see as I mentioned, we are still 110 basis down on occupancy against 2019. So, it's been rate driven. We do expect business travel to come back and get back to 2019 levels coming here in 2024 and 2025. And, we are really excited about a new partnership with just -- with triple A. And triple A represents 31% of all room nights. And we just became one of their preferred partner in the midscale and economy space. So, we are excited about what the growth could for the year. And we feel like we will be in line with industry.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Yes. And I would just say we look at STR and then we look at some of the other forecast that we consider when we make our in-house forecast. They do appear to be -- and I think many in the industry have sort of looked at it. And so, they appear to be a little more aggressive than maybe most in the industry are considering. So, it's just one of the forecasts we do look at when we make our decisions around how we are going to put our own internal forecast. And then, ultimately, put that into our guidance.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead. Patrick Scholes, your line is open. Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

That makes sense. Thanks for that. And then, just a second follow-up on, you guys gave us fair amount of color on churn. But, I am curious on the Radisson brands. Those two together those did decline a touch quarter over quarter. When does that bottom and start to grow the two brands together? And, what have you sort of baked-in into the full-year expectations, the guidance you gave for the net unit growth?

Scott Oaksmith

Management

Yes, I think we look at country and then suites. I mean that's a brand that -- and we've said all along, I mean the fact that when you do these acquisitions, you got to get the performance fixed. And then, you do that and that leads to franchise interest which leads to development and growth. In the case of country and suites and Radisson, the Greens and Radisson, we have fixed the performance issues. I think on the country and the suite side, we are already seeing that momentum as we talked about. We saw 19 agreements last year, 10 of those in December alone. That's the highest that brand has done since 2016. So, we feel really confident about the country and the suites growth coming in 2024. Now, a lot of that's new construction, so it's still up against the higher interest headwind. But we feel really good about the developer interest. The Radisson Greens and the full-service Radisson is likely going to continue to see some decline in 2024 with a reversal of that and growth coming in 2025. And that's a function primarily of -- just those are generally more urban hotels, larger boxes. And the timeframe that they take when they change flags is much more elongated. So, it's really a function of timing rather than anything else I think on when country coming back this year 2024, and then, Radisson Greens returning to growth in 2025.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead. Patrick Scholes, your line is open. Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

That's super helpful. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

Patrick Pacious

Management

Thank you, Operator. Thanks again everyone for your time this morning. We'll talk to you again in May when we announce our first quarter results. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Good-bye.