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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 3, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Chord Energy’s Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Lou, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Michael Lou

Analyst

Thank you, Megan. Good morning, everyone. Today, we are reporting our second quarter 2023 financial and operational results. We're delighted to have you on our call. I'm joined today by Danny Brown, Chip Rimer, and other members of the team. Please be advised that our remarks, including the answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently disclosed in our earnings releases and conference calls. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings releases as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During this conference call, we will make reference to non-GAAP measures, and reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings releases and on our website. We may also reference our current investor presentation, which you can find on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Danny Brown.

Daniel Brown

Analyst

Thank you, Michael. And thank you to everyone who's joining our call. And what I know is a very busy morning. So with that, in addition to discussing our quarterly results and expectations for the balance of the year, I'd also like to briefly recognize what Chord has done over the past 12 months to integrate two premiere Williston Basin operators and form a new, stronger and more resilient organization. While integration is never easy, I am very proud of what the team has accomplished, including fulfilling our commitment to capitalize on the best practices of the two legacy organizations and using that to capture and expand significant financial and operating synergies. We've also been very focused on our shareholders. One year ago, we rolled out what we believe to be a peer leading return of capital program that showed our commitment to both the balance sheet and to delivering returns to our investors. For the 12 months from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023, we’ve returned $1.1 billion in the form of dividends. And another $198 million via share buybacks, including aggressively repurchasing steeply discounted shares shortly after the transaction closed. We've also strengthened the portfolio, including closing the XTO bolt-on acquisition on the one-year anniversary of close and selling non-core assets, streamlining our operations and directing focus to where we have scale and competitive advantages. I'm also very pleased to announce that we've added a key member to our executive team, Shannon Kinney, Shannon joins us as our Executive Vice President and General Counsel and brings over 20 years of legal experience with her most recently from ConocoPhillips, where she was Vice President, Deputy General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. We are absolutely thrilled to have Shannon as part of the team and look forward to working with…

Michael Lou

Analyst

Thanks Danny. I'll highlight a handful of key operating and financial items for the second quarter and discuss our updated 2023 guidance. As Daniel mentioned oil volumes were strong in the second quarter, about 1.5% over midpoint guidance. Total volumes were above the high end of guidance driven by NGL volumes. As we saw Bakken midstream providers pivot from ethane rejection in the first quarter to ethane recovery in the second quarter. This led to higher NGL volumes, but weaker realizations as ethane became a larger portion of our overall NGL barrel. In addition, NGL realizations were impacted by a combination of lower Conway prices and impacts associated with our TNF [ph] fees. Our TNF fees are allocated based on a percent of gas and NGL revenues. With Uyghur residue gas prices in the second quarter NGL realizations were disproportionately impacted quarter-over-quarter. We have updated realization guidance to reflect recent market conditions. It does seem like NGL prices hit a bottom in late second quarter and are improving into the third quarter along with higher Henry Hub gas prices. Clearly the Bakken has a bit higher gathering and processing fees versus other basins. This drives higher operating leverage, which hurts realizations for both NGLs and gas in times of weaker pricing, but should improve quickly as prices recover. Our 2023 activity schedule is similar to what we expected earlier in the year, TIL activity is concentrated in the second and third quarters, leading to sequential production increases in the third and fourth quarters. As Danny mentioned, we added some frac activity to the fourth quarter. However, most of the wells will not be cleaned out until early 2024. So there's no volume impact in 2023. Turning to cash costs, LOE was a little below midpoint guidance, while GPT was above.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Scott Hanold

Analyst

Thanks, and good morning. I was wondering, Dan you give some kind of more details on cleaning out the total those three mile wells, just out of curiosity. Can you give us some sense, like when you do that is does it take longer or more cost to make sure it's properly cleaned out? And when you do get that contribution, typically, does that influence IP rate? Is it more of a shallower decline that ultimately leads to the higher EUR?

Daniel Brown

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Scott. So I'm going to take a stab at this, and then I'll ask Chip to way in for additional color if we need to. But, to go with the second part of your question, first, I think is we think about 3-mile laterals in general, the early IP rates, and that early time production really isn't too different from what we see, with 2-miles we're not really designing larger facilities, we just we ended up running that production flat for a longer period of time with the 3-miles going 2-miles. And then ultimately, the decline is shallower on a 3-mile than a 2- mile because you just have more reservoir feeding in over time. And so generally not a big uplift in IPs on 2-miles versus 3-miles but a lot better EUR and clearly much more capital efficient. From cleanouts perspective, that's actually one of the really exciting things to me, the part of the operation that is involved in getting out to the TILs the Coiled Tubing operations is one of the lowest cost portions of the operation. And so spending a little time getting further and making sure that we get cleaned out all the way to the end is actually doesn't cost us very much at all. But it can deliver some significantly improved volume contribution from that end portion of the well. So, yes, not a whole lot of incremental cost for. There may be, in any operations there, there will be times where maybe we don't get 100% of the cleaned out, but spending a little longer to get essentially the entire that entire lateral cleaned out has a big opportunity for us to move that 80% contribution from the third mile up closer to 100% contribution to that third mile, which will be fantastic. So I'll let Chip weigh in as well.

Charles Rimer

Analyst

Yes, Scott, this is Chip. Yes, I agree 100% what Danny said, flatter for longer, of course on versus the IPs. And then, we have run the test to see what dissolvable plugs were doing. We're actually dissolving do we have a clean wellbore or not. So we ran that test and, and be able to look at those tracers and see what's going on. So identifying and be able to knock out that last little bit, as Danny indicated, is a very small amount of dollars when it's all said and done, but we have a lot better understanding of what the contribution is across the wellbore. So I'm really excited, I want to thank the team is are really finding ways to get certain fluids, certain designs to make sure they're knocking this thing out as quickly as possible. But for a very small amount of time, additional, we can hopefully get 13% [ph] of wellbore.

Scott Hanold

Analyst

That sounds good. And then I guess a question that leads me to next is, as you think about getting more of these three milers online and obviously with a little bit more, I guess back have or early I'd say it gets 2024 momentum because of those ducks you mentioned. What does that say to the capital efficiency the program going into 2014? Does it, should we be able to see a little bit of an improvement on that given those two factors. And that coupled with I guess OFS cost reductions, seems to be moving in your favor?

Daniel Brown

Analyst

So, Scott, I think as we look forward, clearly, we're trying to drive capital efficiency, improve capital efficiency in all aspects of our business. So that's always the driver for us over here. And this additional opportunity we see with the 3-mile laterals and the coil tubing drill outs that we just discussed, obviously, helps with that. From a deflationary sort of environment and oilfield services, I'd say, we're certainly seeing some encouraging signs in that, but I still think it's maybe a bit a bit early to really roll forward with that in our full planning process. We've got line items that are certainly lower, but we also have some line items that are higher labor cost is generally sticky. And now that we've seen some recovery and oil prices, which we're obviously very thankful for that's probably likely to provide some support to service to service costs as well. So I think the deflation is we're seeing encouraging signs, I'm not ready to quite roll that through completely yet, we’re going to need to see a little further. And with respect to 2024, I think we'll provide -- we're working to develop a plan that's essentially a maintenance level plan versus our current year. We're going do that in his capital efficient manner as possible. And we'll talk more about that later this year and probably come out with full specific guidance in early 2024.

Scott Hanold

Analyst

Understood, thanks for that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Derrick Whitfield with Stifel, please go ahead.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, all. Congrats on another strong quarter. So for my first question, I wanted to build on Scott's question. Given the proof of the tracer data that you show on slide 10, is that bias you to inch up your recovery assumptions for the last mile?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

I'm sorry, say that one more time, Derrick.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

Sure, given the proof of the tracer data, on slide 10 of your presentation, does that bias you to inch up your recovery assumptions for the last mile of the lateral?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

I think is we're able to see, I think as we're able to get more data on this, Derrick, that’s the implication. That 80% recovery vision for that last mile if we're successful, in getting all the way out to the toe, as we have been able to I think the last six wells, we've gotten essentially out to the we've gotten the entire lateral plane down. So we'll see results coming through that. And if that lines up with the early results we've seen from the other laterals that we've done, the implications is we can start moving that 80% recovery in the last mile up closer to 100% recovery sort of last mile. So that's the goal here.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

Thanks, Danny. And as my follow up, I wanted to ask if you could speak to the AMD environment in the Willesden at present. More specifically, are you guys seeing greater deal flow now that well was stabilized higher in private equity is seemingly trending affluence?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

Yes, I'd say you know, from my perspective Derrick there's always been sort of a little bit of chatter in Willesden across a whole variety of different assets from I'd say small assets positions from trades to private equity, private equity opportunities. And so I don't know if I've seen a noticeable uptick in that I think it's just been it's been a bit steady and we evaluate a lot of things that that come through some of them transact some of them don't transact and but we've got our ear to the ground with our position in the Willesden. The -- it is -- we feel like we are a natural consolidator within that basin and so we pay attention to what's going on. And as you saw with the XTO acquisition, we think when we have opportunities out there that fit in well with what we're trying to accomplish which that XTO acquisition did. We can act and we think, it's really going to equate to value for the organization and for shareholders.

Derrick Whitfield

Analyst · Stifel, please go ahead.

That's great. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist. Please go ahead.

Neal Dingmann

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Could you tell me what's driving -- you still see some remarkable results in Indian Hills? I'm just wondering is that from water spacing, laterals, efficiencies, if you could just, you know, point to the details there?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks, Neil. So again, I'll lead off here and then ask Chip weigh with some additional color commentary. In Indian Hills, I think we want it's just it's a good spot in the basin, we have spaced those wells out wider, and we've moved more toward 3-mile laterals. And so I really think it's a, it's a, it's a combination of subsurface quality of wider spacing, and of and a 3-mile laterals. And so I think we've got a slide on the graphic in the deck that shows us some of the variant contribution of that, and we can, but it's really a combination of all three of those things, but it's, it's a great portion of our asset, and it's one where we're super happy with.

Charles Rimer

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Neal, no, you're exactly right. I think that slide on page nine, I think shows what's going on there. We're taking those same thoughts with spacing and longer laterals and other areas and going across the basin is this back half of this year, you're going to see some different spots in the basin. So I think we'll be able to have some results later next year or early next year, probably see how that's working. But really excited about what we're seeing the Indian Hill, and what that's going to do for the rest of the season.

Neal Dingmann

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Yes, it really seems to be working well, guys. And then just my second on shareholder return. Danny you talked about this in prepared remarks, I just wondering as you -- does this mean you'll kind of diverge from what you were doing before. And would you think they'd go to more of a formulate plan? I know, you've talked about opportunistic bites. So I'm just wondering if there's any thoughts of going to maybe like a unique plan there.

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

As we talked about last quarter, Neal, the thought was is we were just being too restrictive on how we were judging our performance, particularly relative to others. We always thought from an intrinsic value standpoint, we were a pretty compelling opportunity. And as we've opened the aperture up there, it's allowed us to do some more, it's allowed us to do some more share repurchases. So I think this is just in keeping with what we talked about last quarter, clearly a bit of a departure, at least from a percentage standpoint. And what we did early in the capital return program where we were being, more focused on variable dividends, again, because of the framework, we were looking at this through. So as we've opened that aperture up, more fluid more was flowing toward share repurchases. But we'll continue to think about that opportunistically. I think the great thing is, is we're committed to a very strong return program. It's just part of the ethos of the organization. And so we'll continue to do that. And we think we're undervalued versus our intrinsic value and versus our peers. And so those share repurchases made a lot of sense to us.

Neal Dingmann

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

It's great to see have you guys doing well with this. Thanks, Dan.

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Neal.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Philip Johnston with Capital One, please go ahead.

Philip Jonston

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks. Your CapEx guidance implies that we'll see a fairly large reduction in spending in Q4. Can you maybe provide some context there? And how should we think about what that means for production momentum going into next year?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks, Philip. So as we talked about, early when we set budget guidance for the year. We've really put a program together where we get -- we started the year with one frack crew. We added a frack crew as we got out of winter and got into the warmer sort of easier months to operate in North Dakota. And that lasts essentially through the end of the third quarter. And so second quarter and third quarter, we ran two frack crews and first quarter and fourth quarter will only run one. And that's really predicated around just winter weather in North Dakota. So that really explains the capital drop off, we'll drop that frack crew and all the commits are completion, spinning will fall away from the program there. Now, we'll continue to tilt those wells as we get into the fourth quarter and a bit into the first quarter as well. And then we'll start resuming capital activity. So I recognize it does provide some cyclicality in the production profile that that we produced, but we think it's the more capital efficient way to run the program just to avoid some of that really harsh winter weather where you can have some real difficulties from an operations perspective.

Philip Jonston

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

Yeah. Okay, that makes sense. And then looking out into next year, you mentioned just the intention to kind of keep volumes relatively flat. Obviously, it's early but directionally, do you think that's about sort of a three and a half-ish kind of rig program or so. And then, on the mix of three-mile laterals, do you think it'll be kind of similar this year around 50% or so? Or do you think it'll be significantly different next year?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

I think the Three Mile Lateral program probably be pretty similar to this year, we're still working through the specific DSU that will drill next year, but I think it should be relatively similar. And from a drilling perspective, my anticipation is we'll run around a four-rig program next year.

Philip Jonston

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

Okay, sounds good. Thank you.

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Capital One, please go ahead.

Yep. Thanks Philip.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Oliver Huang with TPH. Please go ahead.

Oliver Huang

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Danny, Michael, Chip and team. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to kind of hit on the drilling side of things. The improvements had been rather sizable over the last six months, on the Three Mile laterals, just wondering how much more running room do you all see on this front? Or at the low hanging fruit already been captured? And also, how should we think about potential for dovetails into year end? If the accelerated pace were to increase or continue? And how might this help the 2024 program?

Charles Rimer

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

It's Chip Rimer. Appreciate the question. Yeah, I'm really excited about what the team has done here. And I think Danny mentioned earlier in his script was, we capitalize on the best practices, we looked at the best practices from both companies going forward. So you can see or prior to merger, they're probably averaging 17 days. And through those best practices, and it's not just one or two things, it's a lot of different things. The guys put together from different fluids to bid designs to BH bottomhole, assembly designs, just tweaking the system a little bit every time. So excited, what they've been putting together. Finding the right rigs with the right people on board also, and be able to move quicker and just be able to knock those prices down. So, am I going to say they're going to do another three days for the six months from now a little harder to do? But they continue to chase things down and make it more efficient. So that's exciting piece about it. So we'll keep doing it. And then we'll play by your by the duck count, but right now, this is just really excited what our teams do on the drilling side. And I think it's across the whole organization, from the completion side to the facility sides, it's cradle to grave, so really excited what they're doing.

Oliver Huang

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

Thanks, appreciate the color there. And just wanted to kind of follow up on the Three Mile Laterals, but just on the facility side of things. As you all start to just do more activity in areas like Red Bank, Painted Woods and Foreman Butte. Just trying to understand, is the facility side in pretty good shape there? Or would we be looking at an increased level of constraints on the Three Mile Lateral walls, just given the other areas where there's probably been a little bit less activity historically?

Michael Lou

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

So Oliver, I think that's a that's a great question. As we put the development program together, we're cautious and we're drilling to make sure that we do have the infrastructure to have takeaway volumes there, whether that be through our gathering systems or more long haul pipelines or through our local facilities. And so that all kind of goes into where we plan on drilling over time. So I don't anticipate any significant constraints as a result of going into these other areas, because we'll have the infrastructure sort of precede us there as we go in. So that's, that's how we'll design the program.

Daniel Brown

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

Now Oliver, the nice thing is we have strong inventory across a large portion of the acreage here in the Bakken. So we are drilling in different areas. They all have good capital efficiency. And as we spread that out, infrastructure, constraints actually get minimized because you're spreading the program out over a larger area. So every pipeline is going to be a little bit better off because you're not concentrating it all in one area.

Charles Rimer

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

I think the other thing is the, Oliver, it's Chip Rimer, but it's also gas capture. We aim to keep those gas capture numbers up high, so you're not concentrated in one area.

Oliver Huang

Analyst · TPH. Please go ahead.

Awesome, appreciate the color. Thanks for the time, guys.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Abbott with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

John Abbott

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for taking our questions. My first question is on GP&T. I understand that, if you are going to understand the accounting change and that if there's no impact margin. But why make the change if there's no benefit to you? So what is the --what is the benefit to you of switching from the sales to the transportation contract? And could we see a better realisation versus just assuming neutrality?

Daniel Brown

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yeah, it's a good question, John. The contract is just kind of a form of how we're. We made some small changes in terms of how we're operating. And so, I don't think it actually changes overall margins. And so we kind of talked about that. We realized that we have taken GPT up a little bit. And we didn't make that same move on the realization side. Part of that is just overall realizations in the base, and they're still very, very strong, there's still a positive differential to TI. But they're just not quite as strong as where they were. And so we didn't move that that realization side up. In reality, on that specific deal, it does take GPT up, but it does take realizations up on that one contract.

John Abbott

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

That's very helpful. And then just quickly for Michael. So Mike, so the understanding the cash tax guidance for the second half of year, zero to 5% to 10% of EBITDA. What's your just your latest thoughts as you look for 2024 and beyond in terms of how that cash tax rates would have trends?

Michael Lou

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yeah, so cash taxes, later part of this year, kind of at zero 10% and $70 to $90 oil price. If you look at that kind of going forward, kind of thing next year is in the same $70 to $90 range, probably 4% to 11%, somewhere in that neighborhood. So we are going to be cash taxpaying going forward. But that's going to kind of be the range to be thinking about.

John Abbott

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Very helpful. Thank you for taking your questions.

Michael Lou

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Danny Brown, Chief Executive Officer for any closing remarks.

Daniel Brown

Analyst

Thanks, Megan. Well, to close out I just want to thank the employees of Chord for their commitment and dedication to our organization. Last year was a pivotable pivotal year for our company. And I know the team worked hard to integrate to predecessor companies and put us in a great position to succeed going forward. And to our investors, I'd say Chord's positioned to deliver value for its shareholders through disciplined capital allocation, efficient operations and maintaining a strong balance sheet while remaining committed to responsible operations. Thanks, everyone for joining our call.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.