Earnings Labs

Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$165.79

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Time Warner Cable Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Tom Robey, Senior Vice President of Time Warner Cable Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Candy, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Time Warner Cable's 2015 third quarter earnings conference call. This morning, we issued a press release detailing our 2015 third quarter results. Before we begin, there are a couple items I want to cover. First, we refer to certain non-GAAP measures. Definitions and schedules setting out reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and trending schedules. Second, today's conference call includes certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by the statements herein, due to various factors which are discussed in detail in our SEC filings. Time Warner Cable is under no obligation to and, in fact, expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Third, the quarterly growth rates disclosed in this conference call are on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted as being sequential. And fourth, today's press release, trending schedules, presentation slides, and related reconciliation schedules are available on our website at twc.com/investors. With that covered, I'll thank you and turn the call over to Rob. Rob? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. I'm extremely excited about the operating momentum reflected in our third quarter results. Q3 was just the latest in a seven quarter string of improving performance. Subscriber growth was simply fantastic. Revenue growth accelerated and we continued to make significant investments in our network, equipment, products, and customer service. I'm particularly proud of what…

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Matt. Candy, we're ready to begin the Q&A portion of the conference call. We would ask each caller to ask a single question so that we can accommodate as many callers as time permits. First question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson.

Craig Eder Moffett - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst · MoffettNathanson

Hi. Good morning. A question for you, Rob, about your New York City beta of over-the-top video over Roku and standalone, can you just talk about that product at all and what your ambitions are? It's striking, I think, that you've chosen instead of going in the direction of skinny bundles with that, to go with more of a full-featured service. What was the learning behind that? And maybe you could expand a little on your thinking and your expectations for that product. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Craig. Let me take it in two steps. Let's first talk about the New York City beta and then we'll come back to skinny bundles. So the way I would characterize the New York City trial is really the next step in the evolution of TWC TV. So, when we launched the TWC TV app, which, of course, is our IPTV app, the goal there was to create an offering that was complementary to our traditional video product, to add additional screens on additional IP enabled-devices for customers to consume video. As we move forward and what we're trialing with this beta in New York, is we're going to move that TWC TV capability toward a full video offering that, in fact, could be substitutional for the traditional set-top box-based video product. And where we're headed is the ability of customers to access the complete video product without having to rent a set-top box from us, whether they use a Roku or they use ultimately another IP enabled-device. So what we need to accomplish that is, first, we need to ensure that that video product complies with Title VI of the Telecom Act in the same way that our traditional video service does, meaning emergency alert service,…

Craig Eder Moffett - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst · MoffettNathanson

That's helpful. Thanks, Rob.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Craig. Candy, next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. You talked about in your prepared remarks that revenue in residential video is up due to volume and promotions. And I feel like we've seen this before at Time Warner Cable. So the question I'm getting at is what's different this time around when people go off the promotion? How are you going to keep people from churning?

Dinesh C. Jain - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Look, I think the first thing just in preface is to say that what we're doing, what we did this quarter, is very similar to what we did the last three quarters, which is that we offer a quality $90 triple play offer out there. And we are very upfront with customers when we're offering that, that at their 12-month anniversary, the price will roll up $20. I think a combination of that transparency on the front-end, coupled with really working hard to nail the customer experience through the life of that first 12 months, will give us a much better churn profile than the past experiences that you're talking about. I think in the past, in one occasion, the value of the going-in bundle was so high that when the prices rolled, the differential was just way too high. That's not the case this time. So we feel really good about what's going to happen. And the very earliest customers that we put on in the triple play bundle last year have started to roll and our experience with those customers has been very positive so far.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Marci. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.

Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks. A couple, if I may; first, same theme, different question, I'm trying to square the revenue per user flat year-over-year with the decline in voluntary churn. And so as I think about that voluntary churn decline, is that in line with sort of a decline in people calling up and looking to leave or is that better save efforts that are costing you? How should we think about that? And that I have another question. Thanks. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Phil, it's Rob. I'll try that. First, I think the answer to the second part of your question is both, fewer people attempting to leave and better effectiveness on our retention efforts. In terms of the relationship between the decline in voluntary churn or decline in churn generally and revenue per user, it's kind of a strange dynamic going on. So we talked a lot about the impact of increases in connect volume on ARPU in that the customers we're bringing on in greater numbers now generate less revenue per customer than our existing base. So we drive higher revenue, but lower ARPU. On the other side, on the retention side, interestingly, the customers we're losing right now are also lower than the existing base. So ironically, when you lose fewer of them, you actually have a negative impact on ARPU. And these strange dynamics are why I counsel against putting too much emphasis on ARPU and more emphasis on the combination of both rate and volume and what it means for revenue growth

Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then, separate, totally different side of the business, can you talk about the Enterprise partnership across the cable companies? How should we think about that impacting either any acceleration in business going forward or the durability of the business growth over time? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, just to be clear, there is no such Enterprise partnership. There's been a lot of speculation about possibilities that could come from MSOs working together to explore the Enterprise space, but there is no formal partnership. I think it's an interesting possibility, but still just an idea. For our part, we are aggressively pursuing the Enterprise space, and, in fact, making decent headway on our own. The only catch is that that requires us to essentially rent network from other providers, whether it's other MSOs or other telecom providers, to serve customers who have locations outside of our footprint, which in the case of Enterprise, is more often the case that not. That piece of the product is inherently less profitable than when we serve customers with our own network, but it's still certainly an interesting business opportunity for us.

Philip A. Cusick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks, Rob.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Phil. Next question, please, Candy.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Amy Yong with Macquarie. Amy Yong - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thanks. I was wondering if you could spend a little bit of time just talking about the competitive landscape. I think DIRECTV is talking about growing video base and, clearly, you are on track to grow the video base. So who are you actually claiming share from? Is it traditional telco and any updated thoughts on Google Fiber? Thank you.

Dinesh C. Jain - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

I'll take the first part of that. I think that what we've seen so far, as Bill mentioned, 9% increase in connects. And that's coming, we believe, broadly from all the areas that we operate in and against all the competitors that we're seeing in the marketplace. We're doing particularly well in areas like L.A., where we've rolled out Maxx, and we've seen some really good growth in connects out there. So I think it's pretty even across the base. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So, Amy, just to respond to the last part of your question about Google, I probably should've mentioned this in my proactive remarks, but, at this point, we're really still only seeing significant Google activity in Kansas City. Austin is in very early days. And Raleigh and Charlotte are still in just the announcement phase, as is San Antonio. So we're talking about Kansas City. And in Kansas City this quarter, our gross connects improved and our churn was down, so I'd argue we're competing well against Google also. Amy Yong - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Great. Thank you.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Amy. Next question, please

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Richard Greenfield with BTIG.

Rich S. Greenfield - BTIG LLC

Analyst

Hi. A couple of questions, one, just from the standpoint of you're sitting in front of the FCC and DOJ with essentially a pitch of how this transaction is going to be in the public interest. And just wondering, given how much better you're doing and looking at Charter's results, how much better they're doing in terms of providing services, what's the biggest takeaway that investors should think about in terms of how this transaction is going to end up giving even better service to the public through the combination? And then, too, just as you think about all the changes in how bundling is happening, we've heard companies like Disney, obviously, talk about smaller bundles hurting them, where they're getting cut out, wondering if you're seeing regionally any differences between large and small markets in terms of how number of channels or size of package is changing, have you seen notable variations by market at all? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Rich. Let me take the second one first. The answer is no, we're not seeing any meaningful differences. I still believe that the headlines are way ahead of the reality on this. It's not to say that the trend doesn't exist, but, for our part, we're gaining video customers. And we're doing it largely on the back of a triple play offer that includes our Preferred TV offering, which has all of the channels, so at this point, no meaningful differences out in the marketplace. With respect to the reasons why the regulators should view the deal as being in the public interest, we've gone to great lengths to cover this in excruciating detail in our public filings. And I feel like any shorthand version of it that I give you today is going to be inadequate relative to those filings we've made. They're all available. And I would rather defer to what we've done in those formal filings, rather than try to do it live.

Rich S. Greenfield - BTIG LLC

Analyst

Fair enough, Rob. Could you just comment? Bob Iger specifically talked about how smaller bundles are hurting his company. Is there something unique to Disney versus what you're seeing in your business? Like why would they be seeing a problem where they're reducing their expectations for subscriber growth and you're not seeing a change in how bundles are occurring? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You know what? Rich, I can't answer the question as to why it's happening. It's not happening as a result of subscribers that are subscribing to, let's say, ESPN through Time Warner Cable. And we haven't, at this point, perceived that we're losing any jump balls to competitors because they're offering skinny bundles.

Rich S. Greenfield - BTIG LLC

Analyst

Thank you for clarifying.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Rich. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Ryan Fiftal with Morgan Stanley. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thanks. Good morning. I have a follow-up question on the OTT product test and then one wireless, if I can. So, first, on the set-top box free product, I was wondering. How are you thinking about the target returns on that kind of sub versus the more traditional sub? And do you think it potentially makes sense to accept lower returns on that kind of sub if it enables you to go after maybe a target or segment of the market you couldn't reach otherwise? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: The truth, Ryan, is we're thinking about this as the place that our video product evolves to. So we're not necessarily thinking about it as a product that is designed for a particular segment, although, admittedly, it may expand the universe of potential customers by bringing in those types of customers that have been averse to having a set-top box in their family room. When we think about returns, we're going to have to figure out a model here that generates a return that is appropriate for the investments we are making. And that may require that we find a way to replicate revenue that currently comes in the form of set-top box rental revenue, but I think this is early days. The reason we're beta-ing this is to make sure that we understand how to do it technically and to make sure we understand what the provisioning experience is for customers and that, overall, it's good for them. If the product is attractive to customers, I'm fairly confident we're going to figure out a way to generate adequate returns. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co.…

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Ryan. Candy, next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank.

Bryan Kraft - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. I wanted to see if you could elaborate on what you're seeing in terms of bad debt and non-pay disconnects. You mentioned that both are down, so I just wanted to understand what's driving it. And then also, can you comment on what your latest expectations are for the timing of the deal close? Thank you. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: All right. Let me do timing and then I'm going to pass it over to Bill to hit bad debt. So if there's one thing I've learned over the last couple of years, is that I'm not terribly good at predicting when regulators are going to act on our deals. So I'm not going to give you a projected closing date. What I will say is that we are working very well with Charter and with Bright House to ensure that everything we can do to put the regulators in a position to act on our deal expeditiously, we're doing. So we responded to all of the RFIs put out by the FCC. We've responded to the DOJ's second request. We're making very good strides at the states and local franchise levels. In fact, most of the states that we need to approve the deal have approved, and most of the local franchises that need to approve the deal have approved. So we're making good headway there. I think you're well aware of the FCC's comment schedule. Comments were due last week. The responses to those comments are due next week. And then, about 10 days after that, replies to those responses are due. So that kind of will enable the FCC to have a complete record. And my hope is then we'll begin to engage in earnest thereafter, but beyond that, hard…

Bryan Kraft - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Bryan, thanks. Candy, next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is James Ratcliffe with Buckingham Research.

James M. Ratcliffe - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Morning. Thanks for taking the question. Two if I could, first of all, looking at telephony for a second, maybe not the hottest topic, but how are you seeing what the incremental revenue is looking like from the both telephony up sales for new customers taking triple versus double play and for existing customers and how much room do you think you still have to run in terms of up-selling telephony to the existing base? And secondly, Dinni, just going back to the topic of, call it, box-less services, how do you think about that from a network perspective? And are there prospects to use multi-cache or something like that for (39:55) network load associated with that? Thanks. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: On the telephone piece, I think it's fair to say that the incremental revenue we're generating from the fact that we're selling a whole lot more telephone than we have historically, is modest. We've talked about the fact that new connect revenue per customer is, more or less, the same year-over-year. And that's reflective of the fact that we've lowered the amount we're receiving for each type of cohort, but we're selling a whole lot more triples. And the theory behind that is we think we're delivering a lot more value to our customers. As a result, they're going to be happier customers. And we're going to retain them longer, which, in turn, means they have a greater lifetime value to us. So that's the theory of the case there. The revenue lift when we're adding phone is more modest than it has been in the past, probably in the nature of $10 versus $20-some-odd a while ago. Okay, I'm going to handle your second question as well, James. I think how we scale an IP video product that replaces our traditional video product is one of the reasons we're trialing. With today's technology, every one of those IP streams is a unicast, so it's consuming bandwidth just like a VOD stream. So we don't get the benefit of broadcast efficiency. And figuring out how to manage that on our network is part of the reason why we're beta-ing this particular offering. That said, we feel fairly confident about the capability of our network to ultimately deliver a video product that is IP-delivered, even a unicast IP video product. So that's where we're at.

Dinesh C. Jain - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

And it's important to note that about 10% of our customers are already using our TWC TV app and having that experience.

James M. Ratcliffe - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Great. Thanks, James. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question is Mike McCormack with Jefferies.

Michael L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys, Thanks. Rob, you pointed out, I think, directly in your prepared remarks regarding U-verse and Fios doing well in those areas. I suspect you'll continue to do well in U-verse, but I guess just thoughts on the competitive landscape, whether or not DIRECTV is getting more aggressive and maybe whether or not you're just seeing Fios focusing more on the mobile side. And secondly, maybe if you can comment on moving to an apps-based world, how pervasive you're seeing password sharing and if that's going to become a problem on the mobile streaming app? Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Let me take the password sharing question first. At this point, we don't see that as a real concern. And we do have the ability to, via DRM, ensure that a single password is not used concurrently more than X number of times to ensure that we control abuse of the passwords. So I think there are methods for taking care of that issue. At this point, it's not a tremendous concern, given where we are in the rollout phase, but it's something that we'll clearly pay attention to going forward. In terms of the Fios, U-verse competitive environment, I think we hit this before, but we attribute our recent positive performance to what we're doing internally, more than any actions on the part of either Fios or U-verse or distractions that might've been plaguing U-verse, given the pendency of the DIRECTV deal or alternatively, Verizon's focus on wireless. We think it's mostly about us. Dinni, I don't know if you want to add?

Dinesh C. Jain - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

No. We've certainly seen the activity that AT&T, DIRECTV have put out it in the market, but it's too early right now for us to see what the effect of that is going to be.

Michael L. McCormack - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks, guys.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Mike. Candy, we have time for one more question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question comes from Jonathan Chaplin with New Street Research.

Jonathan Chaplin - New Street Research LLP

Analyst · New Street Research

Thanks. I just would love to follow up quickly on the over-the-top offering. It would seem to me that the savings you guys get from not having to deliver a set-top box and a truck roll should more than offset the revenue you lose from set-top box rentals. And it seems like you're not willing to state that specifically at this stage and I'm just wondering why, and what the other sort of puts and takes in the economics of the IP offering, video offering are? And then, I'm wondering if you can comment a little bit where you see broadband pricing going over time. Our analysis suggests that broadband as a product is underpriced. As part of the merger conditions, you made a concession to not moving towards usage-based pricing for a number of years. I'm wondering if that's something that you felt the FCC required, or that came up during the course of the Comcast, Time Warner Cable discussions and why you needed to offer that up as a condition. Thank you. Robert D. Marcus - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. So a lot there, let me start with your first question. And I think I might have fallen into this trap as well, but let me make very clear, our beta, our IP video offering, is not over-the-top. I know it's common to us to equate IP with over-the-top. In fact, this is a video service that we're delivering over our facilities, not over anybody else's. Over time, there may be a TV Everywhere component to this, just like there is one to our traditional video offering. But what we're talking about here is a managed video service over our network, so just to get that clarification out of the way. In terms of economics, I…

Jonathan Chaplin - New Street Research LLP

Analyst · New Street Research

Great. Thank you.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Jonathan, thank you.

Thomas Robey - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

And thanks to everyone for joining us. To give you a little bit of advanced notice, Time Warner Cable's next quarterly conference call, which will reflect our fourth quarter and full year 2015 results, will be held on Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, of course, assuming we're still around. Thanks for joining us. Have a great day

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation. That does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.