David M. Cordani
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Okay Scott, it's David. A little color on both. Relative to 2015 -- and again, we'll speak to the national account piece because that's where we have some visibility. Important to remember, we define that buying segment a little more narrowly than the market does in total. So when I give you a comment, it's commercial employers with 5,000 or more employees that are multistate. So we defined a little bit more tightly. And also, important to note our strategic objective has been to hold market share in aggregate in a marketplace that's shrinking, while growing our penetration and engagement incentives and specialty-based programs. So as we look to the marketplace, for new business opportunities, year-over-year, we've had about the same looks in terms of the size of the pipeline and our kind of view of what's emerging there is that our win ratio will be similar year-over-year on new business. Second point, on the portion of our book of business that was out to bid year-over-year, our percent of our book of business that was out to bid was up somewhat year-over-year, driven by the cycle of the contracts we have. Within that, our retention rate of wins of those pieces of businesses that are out to bid are about the same. But because the percent that was out is a little higher, our net losses will be a little higher year-over-year. Putting the picture altogether for 2015, we're not giving you guidance. We'd expect to see continued progress in terms of some new business sales, continued penetration of our specialty and engagement-based capabilities, which are critical and we've got good traction, and a little softer retention rate than we had over the prior year, which was an outstanding retention rate. Last note I would say here, it's good to get through this year because, again, a meaningful percentage of our book of business was out to bid based on contractual cycle. And the team is going to come through that pretty favorably. As it relates to private exchanges, as we noted, early, I mean that innovation cycle, may present long-term attractive marketplace that we're clearly engaged in. That marketplace has to have transparent products and services that engage individuals variability around the incentive programs and a lot of flexibility for ongoing innovation, so programs can remain sustainable, affordable, et cetera. To date, we're positioned in the vast majority of exchanges. The activity we've seen was -- has been a lot of interest in exploration, including our own proprietary, but a modest amount of net movement. So netting it altogether from a Cigna standpoint, net-net, kind of a de minimis movement of wins and losses, but interest in the space. And the key here is demonstration of long-term value creation on which we think that dialogue will continue into '16 and '17.