Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to Bancolombia’s Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Volga, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call and future filings and press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Consequently, these are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchanges rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC. With us today is Mr. Jaime Velásquez, Chief Strategy and Finance Officer; Mr. José Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Jorge Humberto Hernández, Chief Accounting Officer; Mr. Alejandro Mejia, Investor Relations Manager; and Mr. Juan Pablo Espinosa, Chief Economist. I’d now like to turn the presentation over to Mr. Acosta, Chief Financial Officer of Bancolombia. Please proceed, sir. José Humberto Acosta: Thank you very much. Good morning. And welcome to our third quarter conference results. It is a pleasure to be with you today. Let’s just start with a brief discussion of the main topics that impacted our business in this period. You can follow the slide presentation available at our Investor Relations website. We want to start this conference call by sharing with you some facts that drove the business during…

Thank you, José Humberto. Now, I will ask you go to Slide number 4 in the presentation. Let me start by saying that the recent performance of the Colombian economy has been driven by the fall in [ph] the terms of trade due to lower commodity prices. Moreover, the continued adjustment of the economy to this shock will shape its evolution during the foreseeable future. In terms of economic activity, leading indicators suggest that GDP growth will accelerate from 2.9% in the first half of the year to 3.3% during the second semester. Accordingly, our growth forecast for the whole year is 3.1%, slightly higher than consensus estimate to 2.9%. However, we expect that growth will moderate next year to 2.8% due to a combination of factors that included reduction of public spending, higher interest rates, higher unemployment, and an increase the debt burden of private agents. With tepid internal demand and weaker currency, in 2016, the external imbalance will have a marginal adjustment. Trade deficit will narrow from $13.5 billion to $8.8 billion. This means that the current account deficit will be above 5% of GDP in 2016. With these levels, Colombia will remain highly dependent on the international capital inflows. Meanwhile, we think that next year public revenues will be lower than official estimates. So, in order to meet the deficit target of 3.6% of GDP, the central government will probably need to implement further austerity measures. We also anticipate that prices will continue to accelerate in the short-term. We have revised upwards, our inflation forecast for the end of this year from 5.7% to 6.5%, well above the same [ph] of the target range. Inflation should reset [ph] in the second half of 2016 due to a correction of food prices, lower pressure stemming from weaker aggregate…

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Carlos Macedo from Goldman Sachs.

A couple of questions, first on the margins, as you said liquidity tightened and funding costs went up; that’s what did in the third quarter, rates went up again in Colombia last month. Just wondering to see if there is any impact on this for the fourth quarter and how quickly do you think you can convert the higher rates into your loan spreads, as you mentioned going back up to 6%, whether you see that happening already in the fourth quarter; whether it’s going to be something that phases in the first half of next year? Second question partially related to that that with 8% loan growth next year, down from say around 13% to 14% this year, where do you expect the greatest deceleration; is it going to be in the corporate side; is it consumer side going to slow; mortgages, where should we expect loans to slow the most to get to that 8% level? Thanks. José Humberto Acosta: Regarding your first question, yes, we will probably face an increase of funding cost in the next coming quarters. And on the asset side, we are seeing some particular things. First, the DTF [ph] at the end of the day will increase because they are right now showing a little bit -- the real cost of money for 90 days. So, we will probably see an increase of the DTF [ph] but the most relevant point is the second point is now the banks we are lending in a different deals. We are increasing our spreads. And you see that pricing of a loan portfolio is increasing, not only in corporate loans, also in mortgage. So, you will see something of that. Third, banks, in our case are at around 25% of our total loan portfolio is short-term loans. So, the opportunity to re-pricing will appear in the next coming quarters. So, we will take the advantage to re-price part of our loan portfolio. Fourth, within the last months, we’ve seen long-term loans, big corporations are demanding for loans for three to five years. As you probably know, those loans, they have better, better deals and better spreads. So because of that, we are able to say that the -- at least for the first quarter of next year, we’ll see an increase on the size of NII on the asset side. Regarding your second question, yes, we see a deceleration. And probably the main driver of this deceleration with the consumer, now we are seeing a loan growth of consumer at around 10%, next year will be around 8% and also we see kind of deceleration of mortgage interest rate. Mortgages used to grow at a faster space at more than 30% in the last five years, today, we’re seeing at around 15% to 20%. So, we perceive that the number will be ranged 10% to 15% regarding mortgages.

Just going back to the first question, I mean, we’re looking at the DTF, it’s still well behind the benchmark at 4.61 versus 5.25 and the last cycle of rate increases have lagged the benchmark by wide margin, never quite got to the premium there was in the past. Is that something that you expect to happen again in the cycle; is that -- would that have a negative impact overall on your ability to generate net interest margins? José Humberto Acosta: Yes. That’s true that the DTF -- there are a lot of discussions here in Colombia about how -- what’s the reality about the DTF events that we have got in short term? You know what? It’s happening exactly as same that’s happening in other countries that you compensate that with better spreads. So, banking industry are compensated, the lack of the DTF with better spreads.

We have a question from Tito Labarta from Deutsche Bank.

A couple of questions. First, in terms of asset quality, just what was the total exposure you said you have to Conalvias? And once that becomes non-performing or how much your past due may show increase? And then do you think there could be any other corporate where you could be impacted because of this? And then my second question in terms of profitability, you mentioned last quarter, you aimed to do about 15%, maybe 15.5% ROE this year. Given the ROE we saw this quarter, do you think that’s still possible? If so, how would you get there, so you can give a little bit more color into the area of profitability, and I guess not just with next quarter but also for next year? Thank you. José Humberto Acosta: Thank you, Tito. Yes, the case of Conalvias is a unique case. We are not seeing a deterioration of this sector in terms of construction. This is very particular and it’s originator for a very particular situation and the numbers are -- the total exposure that we have these COP 290 billion, we expect to have a provision at the end of this year in total at around COP 160 to COP 180 billion; and today for third quarter, we have COP 86 billion. What we expect the fourth quarter in terms of provisions regarding Conalvias, another COP 86 to COP 90 billion in order to cover the loan portfolio. Regarding your second question, our guidance for growth up to the level of 15% will be for 2016 and then will be mainly driven by the efficiency level. As you see that our numbers in the last three, four years, we have been able to maintain cost under control and we are probably, our guidance for cost increase next year will be at around 5% in order to provide the 15%. As regarding your question this year, we expect to close this year of return on equity at around 13.5%. [Ph]

We have a question from Thiago Batista [Ph] from ITAÚ BBA.

Hi, good morning guys. And thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions; my first question is about the asset quality evolution. Could you comment on your expectation for 2016, if you expect past due loans to increase? And what is your expectation for the cost of risk of the Bank? And my second question is about the reclassification you did in this quarter for the service fee income. We saw that you reclassified some operating revenues and expenses into fees. Could you give us more on this? José Humberto Acosta: Regarding your first question, the asset quality evolution, today, we don’t feel comfortable saying that the vintages are deteriorating. We don’t have enough data to suggest on deterioration. It’s appearing in our loan portfolio. That’s the reason why we expect to have a cost of credit next year, in between 1.6% to 1.8%, again Conalvias particular case. But again, we only see a slight deterioration SMEs. And this is because, once you see FX volatility and cost of credit increasing, this kind of companies feel the impact immediately, but again, 1.6% to 1.8% next year, just to give you an idea about the cost of credit regarding the loan portfolio. And regarding your second question, Alejandro?

The classification is an outcome of the process of adjustment to IFRS. This year is, remember, a transition year from Colombian GAAP to IFRS. So, we’re receiving permanently recommendations from our auditors, internal processor reporting to better show the economy reality of the Bank. So, we decided to reclassify some of these fee revenues into other income line that present at the bottom of the P&L. José Humberto Acosta: Yes, what happened with IFRS is we received at the end of last year, the last [indiscernible] of the government. So, you can understand that reprocessing the previous quarter is very complex process. So that’s the reason why during this year, we are making some adjustments to make comparable the numbers with the previous year.

We have a question from Saúl Martínez from JP Morgan. Saúl Martínez: I’m going play that a little bit and ask how you see, how you can get to a 15% ROE in light of the backdrop in Colombia? Because when you take a step back, it seems very, very challenging to me. You have an economy that is decelerating; you have still sizable credit count deficit, in spite of severe depreciation in the currency; you have fiscal-end monetary policy tightening; and you have a higher tax rates going forward. It seems like the banks are on the curst of a credit quality cycle, even your guidance of1.6 to 1.8 coming from a low base, and it’s fairly rapid growth in loan loss provisioning. You have a repo rate that has gone up considerably more than the DTF rate, and I frankly don’t know if the DTF rate and repo rate the relationship is going to hold. And obviously that’s negative for your financial margins and increase faster increasing in the repo rate. It seems -- so when I take all this together, it’s even with a very moderate increase in cost, even with you guys managing on cost on pricing, it seems very, very difficult to see any type of earnings growth next year. In fact, it looks like you could see this situation where earnings decline and ROEs come down from current levels. So, can you just give me a little bit more color as to how you actually see ROE expansion from current levels in the current environment? José Humberto Acosta: Yes, Saúl, you’re right it’s challenging times. But remember that we are not only a Colombian bank; we have 30% of assets outside Colombia. And if you double check the numbers outside, for example El Salvadorian…

We have a question from Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley.

I just wanted to go back to the expenses. So, you’ve talked about bunch of initiatives that are ongoing to try to control expenses. However, we are not seeing the results of those, and I think you’ve been talking about it for over a year now. So exactly what happened this quarter that expenses went up as much? And what gives you confidence that over the next 12 months, you’ll be able to cut the pace of growth to basically half what you are doing today? And again in the context of that being something that you have been focusing now for over a year and we really haven’t seen the result, at least not the extent that you portray them. Any color on that would be greatly appreciated. And just to clarify on the last question, you had a 13% tax rate in the third quarter and you’re saying that taxes are going to stay at the level they are. Can you just clarify, I mean, I’m sure, you’re not saying 13%, so what is the exact number that you’re thinking about for the effective tax rate in 2015 and 2016? José Humberto Acosta: Regarding expenses, we have two impacts because again FX. It is very complex for a Colombian bank to explain what happens with expenses when you have 30% -- 32% of expenses are outside in our international operation; and second because internally the expenses in Colombia -- around 50% of those expenses are also linked to the devaluation because we’re paying software license, we’re paying international payments, I mean linked to depreciation of the currency. So, that affects a lot. And the second reason is EVA. [ph] We had a provision for bond [ph] plan. At the beginning, we made a huge provision. That’s the reason provision for a bonification plan looks high; we don’t expect to maintain that the level for the last quarter -- in terms of EVA [ph] qualifications. What we expect for quarter is the seasonal effect and we probably expect an increase of expenses in order to compensate what happened in the first quarter. If you double check, expenses every single quarter, the first one was almost 60% of the second and the one. So, we expect an increase of 10% to 20% in the expenses for fourth quarter. At the end of the day, we expect our expenses growth at around 10% for the whole year. Excluding FX, obviously we’re taking not including depreciation. Regarding your second question, taxation, we expect to close the year at a level of 25% of tax growth.

And for next year, sorry? José Humberto Acosta: Next year 25%-26%.

Philip Finch, UBS.

Thank you for the presentation. Really just one follow-up question on the cost risk, which I think you said in your presentation that you expected to end this year at 1.6% to 1.8%. Can you clarify, is that the fourth quarter level or for the full year of 2015? Obviously in the previous quarters the rate’s been at a low level. So, I’m, just trying to ascertain the magnitude of provisions in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Sure, Philip. Indeed, the cost of credit has gone up slightly over the last couple of quarters, as a result of the situation that we experienced -- that we explained before. We decided to take a more prudent approach to provisions, in particular with this client, which has not been classified yet as past due loan, Conalvias. But we made close to 80 billion to 90 billion in provisions already. So, probably in the fourth and in the first quarter of 2016, we’ll see a cost of credit in the neighborhood of 1.5% to 1.6%. We should experience some mild deterioration in the retail and SME portfolio. So, we’re contemplated that possibility in our own forecast to be around 1.6%, 1.7% for 2016.

We have a question from Carlos Gomez from HSBC.

A follow-up on the earnings abroad; can you give us a breakdown of the earnings by geography and also tell us, where your ROE is currently in Panama? And if I may ask, we all understand it is very complex to run a company with different currencies and different geographies, but I think would help everybody understanding, if you were to breakdown the financial information between domestic and international operations, so that we can actually follow the impact. After all -- and I wonder that is very difficult. Thank you. José Humberto Acosta: That’s completely true. Our next conference will be with the breakdown of currency adjusted to give you a clear idea in which point we are in terms diversification. That’s true. Regarding your first question, yes, income statement, 20% comes from international operations and 80% comes from local operations. And it has a clear explanation, the NIM outside because it’s dollarized economy and it’s U.S. dollar operations, the NIMs are around 12% and the NIMs in Colombia are around 6% to 7%, that’s the reason why the number is 20%, international, 80% local operations. Regarding breakdown on equity in the different geographies, again 70% in Banco Agricola and today the Banistmo operation will be at around 11% coming from 7% of last two years ago. So, we see a real recovery of the operation in Banistmo because of combination of better loan portfolio, reducing in a very important way the cost of credit, the cost provisions were very low, and increasing a bit the fee income in the business in Banistmo. So at the end of the day that will converge to support the 15% that we are expecting for the next coming years.

Second follow-up on Banistmo, at the time of acquisition, you mentioned a target, low end target of reaching 18% ROE, you just mentioned 15%; is that an intermediate target or that is your new assessment of what the long-term profitability of this operation is?

Carlos, in Banistmo in particular, we have been very prudent with the capital position of the bank. You probably recall that we decided to retain all the earnings that the bank generated during 2012 and 2013 in the bank; we did not pay a dividend. So, the solvency position of the bank has increased over the last 24 months when we had control. So ROEs today are lower than the 18% as we got -- when the company was acquired because of a lower leverage of the operation. And remember the 18% included operations that did not enter in the deal, loans and operation of cash management outside Panama, which were not part of the acquisition. José Humberto Acosta: And status of bringing the money back, we do prefer to maintain to allocate capital because the loan growth is happening here, regaining market share in a very different way, so that’s the reason why we do prefer allocate capital there.

All right. So, again, this is a 15% on the account in equity that you have retained in Panama. Can you give us that number and presumably that’s not included goodwill generated in this acquisition, right? José Humberto Acosta: No, it’s not including -- it’s not including the goodwill, if I understand your question, Carlos.

No, the question is what is the current capital rates of your bank in Panama, this 11% on what equity rate? José Humberto Acosta: It is -- we are double checking here the numbers, we have had around $800 million in capital which is set around Tier 1 of around 10%. We’ll give you, we will send you information regarding the capital structure of Banistmo but that will be around 10%, very solid.

Our next question comes from Mauricio Restrepo from BTG Pactual

Two follow-ups, the first one on expenses. You mentioned 6% growth for next year, but I was wondering which will be like drivers, taking into account the depreciation of the currency and also the higher inflation in Colombia in mostly so of the components of the expenses are linked to those key rivals? In addition, the second follow-up is on the capital that you have in Central America. Maybe you can tell us how much is the excess capital that those subsidiaries have, and if you can be prepared for new acquisitions with this capital? José Humberto Acosta: Thank you, Mauricio. Regarding your second question, we -- by now, the capital location that we’re having on the international operations basically are mainly focused to sustain the growth. We are not expecting to shaking new opportunities of business because we are on digestion mode with operations in Banistmo. The management is focusing the efforts trying to put Banistmo on track which is happening at the end of the day with the numbers. So, the excess of capital again, it is basically allocated, because of loan growth and because of expectations of regain market share in the Panamanian case. Regarding the 6% that we are expecting this year, yes, inflation would be challenging. But remember that inflation, expectation of inflation will reduce at the second half of this year. So, obviously in labor [ph] cost, we will have less flexibility of increase to maintain or control expenses cost, but the operating costs, we are right now again focusing the efforts trying to some areas to grow zero percent and in other areas to grow minus x percent, so that would be the effort. We want to compensate a new challenging environment basically on the cost control.

We have a question from Natalia Casas from Ultraserfinco.

I would like to know just more about the efficiency ratio. I understand that this time it was released because of the depreciation but I’d like to know why this is happening, what is the proportion of your administrative costs that are in U.S. dollars or what’s going on? Thank you.

We estimate, Natalia, that roughly one-third of our expenses, something like 35% are in dollars that includes the operations in Central America, which are dollarized plus some expenses that we have included on the offshore [ph] in dollars. In addition, remember, there was a significant drop in the dividends and equity contribution of some of the investments. So, the revenues were affected on a non-recurring basis because of this dropping in revenues. So, the cost to income ratio was slightly higher than the term or the long-term that we forecast for 2016 and ‘17. As José mentioned at the beginning, we should be ending 2015 in the neighborhood of 50% to 52%, but on a long run basis we should be below 50%. José Humberto Acosta: I think we close the conference call. Thank you for your questions and hope to you see in the next coming quarterly conference call. Thank you very much all of you.