Juan Carlos Mora Uribe
Management
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the conference call for the third quarter. Before presenting information about the Bank, let me do a quick reference of our view of the current macro situation. In Colombia, we have seen a more dynamic economic growth during the quarter. Through this year, GDP has expanded at a higher rate with respect to those seen in 2017, thanks to a recovery in general demand and a two digit growth in exports. For third quarter 2018, our growth estimate is 2.5% and for the whole 2018, it's 2.6%. There is a scope for further acceleration in 2019, which will be driven by investment leading to a growth of 3.2%. Over the past few months, inflation has remained within the central bank's target range. As a result, interest rates have been stable as well. We forecast two hikes towards the second-half of 2019 when the economy will be growing closer to its potential. We have seen progress in the government's effort to address the fiscal deficit. Last week, the administration submitted to the Congress a law proposal to modify the tax code. According to our estimate, this initiative will allow the central government to meet next years deficit goal. It will also introduce measures that will reduce the tax burden for private companies. The initiate also contemplates adjustments to the VIP, which will exert a temporary pressure on inflation and a short-term deceleration of private consumption. Despite these effects, this proposal is a necessary step in the process of fiscal consolidation to which Colombian authorities are fully committed. Finally, in the external front, we have seen a positive evolution in the trade balance. The current account deficit will remain close to 3.4% of GDP and current oil prices are supportive of this trend. Despite recent volatility…