Earnings Labs

Ciena Corporation (CIEN)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Dec 11, 2014

$473.69

-7.22%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.11%

1 Week

+6.23%

1 Month

+6.95%

vs S&P

+8.58%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Ciena Corporation’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2014 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Poulet and I’ll be operator for today’s call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now to the call over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Gregg Lampf

Management

Thank you, Poulet. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena’s fiscal 2014 fourth quarter and year-end review. With me today is Gary Smith, CEO and President; Jim Moylan, CFO; Steve Alexander, CTO; and Tom Mock, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications. This morning’s press release is available on national business wire and ciena.com. We will also post to the investor section of ciena.com an accompanying investor presentation, including certain highlighted items from this quarter being discussed today, as well as our historical results. In our prepared remarks today, Gary will discuss management’s view on the market and Jim will offer some color on our results and provide guidance. We will then open the call to questions from sell-side analysts, taking one question per person with follow-ups as time allows. Before turning the call over to Gary I’ll remind you that during this call we will be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company, that include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing. Our 10-K is required to be filed with the SEC by December 31st, and we expect to file by that date. Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Today’s discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today’s press release available on ciena.com. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay from the investor section of our website. Gary?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thank you, Gregg and good morning, everyone. As you saw earlier this morning we posted another record breaking fiscal year at Ciena. In 2014 we made great progress against both our strategic and financial objectives. Most importantly our progress in 2014 sets us up nicely to continue to grow revenue and increase our profitability in fiscal 2015, which we are confident we will do. We have been designing our business for the last several years based on our expectation of how the market will evolve and that evolution is coming about. The cloud is hastened the shift towards on-demand networking to the point where the cloud really is the principal driver in network architecture evolution. The need for on-demand network resources is redefining traditional demands from geographies such as core Metro to a simpler topology that reflects more cloud centric usage, connecting users to their data which we refer to as content to user and connecting data centers together, which we refer to is content to content. This shift aligns perfectly with our OPN, Open Network Architecture which we announced three years ago and which is now facilitating this evolution for our customers. Going forward the new architectural model has implications for all kinds of network operators but especially the two key buyers of networking solutions for the cloud; global tier 1 service providers and web scale providers, sometimes referred to Web 2.0. We use the term web scale to describe the community of [ph] net content providers like Amazon, Facebook, Google and carrier neutral providers of co-location and interconnect functionality with data centers, such as Equinix and DRT. With regard to service providers, whether they are customers or enterprise, mobile or residential, global Tier 1’s are, and will continue to be the primary owners of the content to user…

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Thank you Gary. Good morning everyone. 2014 was an excellent year for Ciena and as Gary said, we now have a solid platform for growth and increased profitability in the years ahead, serving all network providers, from Tier 1 service providers to web scale players and everyone in between. That success has translated into another record year for Ciena in 2014 with financial performance that is significantly improved over last year. Our revenue was $2.3 billion, a 10% increase over 2013. Fiscal '14 was another demonstration of our ability to consistently raise the bar on our performance. Our adjusted gross margin for the year came in at 42.1%, roughly flat with 2013 and in-line with our expectations. We remained committed to controlling the things that are within our control and our adjusted operating expense for 2014 reflects that commitment. OpEx for the year was $816 million, below the target we set and communicated to you at the beginning of the year. As a result of this performance we saw increased operating leverage in our business in 2014, with adjusted operating margin coming in at 6.5% for the year. Our adjusted operating profit for the year was a $148 million, an increase of 28% over 2013. We ended the year with $777 million in cash and investments. That includes the proceeds from the term loan facility that we closed last summer. During 2014 our business generated $45 million in cash, excluding the proceeds from the term loan. As expected our backlog declined in 2014. We ended the year with backlog of $807 million and orders for the year were slightly lower than revenue. These results are consistent with the changing profile of our customer base to include more packet and web scale buyers, both of whom require rapid fulfillment. Our business…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. And your first question is from Kent Schofield from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Kent Schofield

Analyst

Great, thank you. First question around the gross margin dynamic, you alluded to this but just to make clear, as we looking in to the gross margin guidance in the January quarter, is lot of that driven by the fact that a bulk of the discounting and some of those initial build happened in October and that's what’s driving the majority of the bounce back in January?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Yes, absolutely Kent. As we have said it is -- it’s the case in our business that in new deals we often give discounts and that was certainly the case in two cases or two situations that we talked about in Q4, that happened in Q4. It’s behind us and we’ll march forward.

Kent Schofield

Analyst

Great, thank you. And then on the web scale side of things some of your supply chain has discussed the lumpiness especially around the Web 2.0 customers. Have you seen this as well? And then as a follow-up around R&D expense, in the past we’ve seen where you had customers that have driven R&D expense for specific projects. Do you see a similar dynamic with some of those Web 2.0 customers?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yes, Ken we’ve seen steadily increasing, I would say sort of broad-based engagement with the web scale folks, both directly and indirectly and I guess we benefit from that, both in North America because of our global exposure to them. So we haven’t seen as much of the lumpiness, perhaps given our broad exposure to it. In fact I think in Q4 one of our second largest customer by revenue was actually a web scale company. And looking at the pipeline going forward, we’ve seen opportunities both directly and indirectly with those web scale players and I include in that also the people like Equinix et cetera there as well. So to your question around specific developments, I think they are very aligned with our open OPN architecture, particularly in content to content and I think there is a good fit there increasingly more software controlled. So I think we are extremely well placed around, they are going in the same direction as we are.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Yes just to add to this, we said earlier we have number one share in that market that we came -- we developed that over the last couple of years and you haven’t seen any significant change in our R&D expense. We have to develop for all of our customers and we can do that within our business model.

Kent Schofield

Analyst

Thank you, again.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Amitabh Passi from UBS. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, this is Tejas [ph] on behalf of Amitabh. Thank you for taking my question. Could you clarify the dynamic that your largest customer as a percentage of sales was down from almost 22% to 12%. I think you said in your prepared that you expect it to be further down but on a dollar basis is this a low point and could it get worse?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yeah, what I said in script is that the two largest customers on a combined basis declined as a percent of revenue in 2014 as compared to 2013 and we expect that to occur in 2015 as well. We didn’t really make a comment about the growth in the revenue. What I would say about both of them is that we have a very strong relationship with both. We’ve been chosen repeatedly for next gen architectural solutions. We’re very pleased that we are part of the main 2.0 that’s going to be very important for us as we move through time and so I think they are going to continue to be important customers for us for the long-term and I expect it will grow with them overtime but we have other segments that are growing much faster.

Gary B. Smith

Management

The other point that I would make is that we’re doing extremely well with both of those customers but the rest of our business is growing, frankly is growing faster. And I think that’s a good balance to the overall business, but our top two customers will be in the early, combined in the early 20% of our total business. I think that’s the healthy thing for us and I think we’ve taken into account all of the industry dynamics that we see and we have good visibility with both of those top customers as you would expect, certainly for 2015 and we’ve encompassed that completely in our planning and in our guidance.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it and what contributed to the services gross margin strength?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Well, as we’ve said in the past we have a number of different ways that we serve our customers from deployment to maintenance to advanced services, and each of those individual products have a difficult margin profile. The deployment because it’s the least technically involved tends to have the lowest margin and so you are going to get [indiscernible] in our services gross margin. We must have had a low percentage of deployment in the fourth quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Sue from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mark Sue

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Gary I want to understand the dynamics in the declining orders, do you recognize themes in the customer diversification and the broadness [ph] there. Do web customer -- do their orders go to backlog or are they mostly turns and also for Ericsson for example do get back over to the backlog or is it just trough shift? And then Jim, question on price discounts. Price discounts to one customer can often attract the attention of others. It sounds that you are pretty confident that that’s behind us. How do you feel in terms of price discount being complete for example and no subsequent discount and no change in behavior is expanded beyond current customers?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Let me take the first one, Mark. I think that what we are seeing is the demands of the different customer sets but also I think there is an element across this and I think the point is that Ciena now is much -- has much greater exposure to service creation and service enablement and I think what we are seeing is a definite shift in our business of two elements. One is the mix of customers, generally web scale, enterprise, diversification into those areas, they require faster deliveries and increased velocity. We recognized this going into the year; we made changes to our inventory management and our supply chain and our ability to reflect that. So you have seen greater velocity and then that’s also resulted in the improved cash position as it flushed out in Q4. I would also say, that the service creation element, both with the large tier 1’s web scale and others is such that it is a success based spend. Therefore the delivery times required are much faster and that’s also reflected in the dynamics that we are seeing from the backlog et cetera. So typically to give you real example we are delivering a lot of those requirements on service creation within three to four weeks and even less in some cases.

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yeah, on the gross margin piece Mark, I want to say about that is that as we said when we talked about Q4, we had a couple of different things that were going to affect Q4 and they would be relatively short-term in nature. And when we look into Q1 and for the rest of 2015 that has -- is proving to be true. We have a history of sometimes having lower gross margins. In fact in 2012 we had a quarter two when we had margins below 40%. That was again related to particular projects when we were in an attacking mode and we did improve our gross margins after that. So we feel confident based on what our backlog looks like, what our customer behavior is that we can get our margins back into the low to mid 40’s this year. The other thing that we do constantly is we focus very hard on reducing the cost of our products. That’s is something that we have done I think in an industry leading way and that enables us to get our margins back to that low to mid-40s.

Mark Sue

Analyst

That’s helpful, Jim. Any way to quantify for investors the work that you are doing as far as taking the cost of goods lower on an annual basis, now that you have been doing this for many years now, so just kind of how we should think about that?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

I guess we have said generally that you see a 10% to 12% decline in pricing and our cost overtime and we are seeing that consistently. Some years it’s higher and some years it’s lower and our success in driving cost reductions greater than price erosion in the market has been good. I think we have done very well with that.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Mark, the other thing I would add is I think we are in very different position structurally then we were even a couple of years ago and that thinking about it from a supply chain point of view we are vertically integrated in the key elements that we want to be in. And secondly, given our diversification of product sets increasingly more Packet and more software orientated, we've got the ability I think to improve margins there as we change our solutions. And as Jim said, on the front end of the business is much more diversified customer base, which again gives us the ability to drive margins overtime.

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Thanks Mark.

Mark Sue

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dmitry Netis from William Blair. Please go ahead.

Dmitry G. Netis

Analyst

Thank you gentlemen for taking my questions. Wanted to go back to the margin, this year, actually specific to this quarter. Could you give us a breakdown of different elements that went into this mix? I think you talked about e-discounting, you talked about federal and international deals. And how much each of those elements represented in the margin mix, and how much overflow actually do you expect in Q1 as related to the AT&T.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Yeah, Dmitry we haven't quantified the individual effects of the two elements, being the AT&T Domain 2.0 discount and the international projects. They both hit in the quarter, they were both significant and meaningful. And although there will be some continuation in Q1 we're confident that we're going to get into the low 40s in Q1. The effect of both of those two will be substantially less than it was in Q4.

Dmitry G. Netis

Analyst

Okay thank you.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thank you.

Dmitry G. Netis

Analyst

Okay and then the second question, if I may. Again going to the backlog, I think Mark asked this question, but wanted to get some visibility, I think the backlog you said was $807 million if I captured that correctly and then I think you said orders were slightly lower than revenue. Could you compare and contrast what it was in the prior quarter, maybe six months ago, just to give us sort of a reference point?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

I think the reference point is overall for the year and we predicted this, based on the point it makes a structural change to our business and our customer base, it’s down about a $150 million to $200 million. We thought that was, as we turned the year higher than we would have liked it to be quite frankly. We wanted to turn some of that to revenue, number one addressing some of the required delivery intervals. So we worked very hard at beginning of the year to implement changes to our supply chain to reflect the changes in our customer base. Principally, as I said Dmitry about, driven by the service creation, we are much closer now to the creation of services and enablement and less on pure infrastructure, that’s why [ph] the delivery time scales are that much greater. And I'm pleased with what we've been able to do during the course of the year and I think that's kind of -- it's reflected in our ability to be able to grow the business significantly and operate with a lower backlog.

Dmitry G. Netis

Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Operator, next question please. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Paul Silverstein from Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you. First of all, Jim can you give us the customer counts in the 100 gig and optical switching as well as the 4100?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yeah. I'm going to ask Tom to do that, Paul.

Thomas Mock

Analyst

Yeah, Paul for the quarter we ended up with -- we shipped during the quarter to 72 customers on 100G, let me just pull out our number here for the summary. So overall we had 199 customers today on total 40 and 100G, total of a 146 on 100G, total of 143 on 40G and that represents 12 new customers for 100G in the quarter and one new customer for 40G in the quarter. One thing that also is related to that is we also did a significant amount of business in switching as part of that transport. That's continuing to be an important part of that segment for us.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

Tom, I'm sorry the 72 number was for what?

Thomas Mock

Analyst

The 72 was for how many we shipped to in this quarter, in Q4.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

Got it, and the optical switch count was what?

Thomas Mock

Analyst

The optical switch count was 40 customers for 5400 today and that's showing that we basically have now essentially achieved the same number of customers that we achieved over the 10 year lifecycle of co-director [ph]. Go ahead, Paul.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

Couple of quick questions, if I may. Jim I apologize going back to AT&T, but my simple question is given the commentary from last quarter and I recognize you’re limited in what you can say, but the given the commentary from last quarter, as you look forward, how much have you been impacted by AT&Ts revised CapEx guidance if you can share that with us, to what extent do you expect the snapback that you discussed last quarter in terms, relative to the meaningful discount you gave in the October quarter and in the, I guess to some extent the discount you gave in January. What beyond that phenomena, especially with respect to CapEx trends and I got one other quick question?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

One question per person. Sorry Paul. On AT&T the way we described the effect in Q4 is that it represents a pretty significant sort of concentration of discounts into Q4. We have a price list going forward. We absolutely baked that price list into our internal planning and into our public guidance and so the guidance that we’ve given reflects everything that we know about AT&T and I also said that they are an important customer to us. We have a very large sales team, which interfaces with them on a daily basis. We are very close to what they are going to do in this coming year and so based on what they have told us we have baked everything that we know about that customer into our guidance, including what we know about what they've said. And we know that they have a lot of FX pressures on their business model, all of our customers do. But we believe that we’ve factored all of that into the guidance that we've given. As we said they are going to -- our two largest customers combined will go down as a percent of revenue in 2015, but we'll make that up through a bunch of other customers including some new customers that we have.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

All right, guys base math, if I did the math correctly, your comments about fiscal '15 would imply is if I took the midpoint, 8.5% growth, 8.5% operating margin, that would imply that you are looking at gross margin somewhere in the range of 42.5%. My question to you is what -- the 34% OpEx to revenue ratio implied by that guidance and the 42.5% gross margin implied by the guidance, what's the risk and what's the opportunity relative to those numbers? 34% is lower than you’ve ever done on an annual basis in terms of OpEx or revenue and again what's the risk and opportunity in both numbers?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

I'll answer the easiest part first, Paul. We're planning our OpEx for the year and we have consistently, over the past four or five years hit our OpEx plan. Yes, we've had quarterly variation in our OpEx but on an annual basis we hit our plan. So I don't -- of course there is some risk on that but no a lot of risk on that. With respect to all the other numbers that you have quoted we’ve given a range for each of these numbers and my feeling is that we've given a range which encompasses the highest probability of events that are going to occur. Not all of these events are within our control. So of course there is a possibility of variation. But we feel good about it and we’ve done pretty much over the past several years what we said we were going to do.

Paul Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you.

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Thanks Paul.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thank Paul.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Ehud Gelblum from Citi Group. Please go ahead.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Hey, guys. Appreciate it, thank you. So couple of questions. First of all, I want to talk a little bit about international. How did -- obviously the international mix went up a little bit by subtraction with AT&T going down. But it sounds like international itself was doing decent. Can you give us some update on Vodafone and how business kind of is spread out? I know you talked about the Tier 1 win in Europe to Ericsson that haven't announced yet, does that go in fall into 2015 numbers or is that something -- as part of your 7% to 9% that you are anticipating for next year, or is that -- some of that goes afterwards in '16 and then I have some other questions too. Thanks.

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

I mean I think on the international overall our revenues for the year were up about 12%. I think nearly 50% of our revenues in Q4 came from outside of the U.S. So we’re seeing good opportunities of expansion there. Specifically in Europe you mentioned Vodafone. We got a strong base there now. We talked about Liberty Global as well, which is the largest cable company outside of North America. We are expanding that relationship [indiscernible]. So Europe for us, I think over the course of the next 18 months to two years we’re seeing some positive opportunities for us outside of Europe. We’re just about to turn up India’s largest 4G network. In fact it’s the first 4G network. We’ve talked about expansion in Brazil, which is going very well. Specifically to Ericsson we’ve announced Telstra, got a new Tier I as well in Europe and others and that pipeline is growing. So I think the work that we’ve done over the last few years and really investing in go-to-market and investing frankly in start-up of some of these large networks, I think will yield the benefits of this diversification over the next couple of years.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

All right. Does that Tier I in Europe that you just mentioned does that fall into 2015 is part of your…?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yes, yeah I think, well I believe we will take revenue in 2015 for that win.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

All right. That’s helpful. On doing some of the same math I told you before, the gross margin comes out to implied for next year as 42%, 43% to get into that range. That’s basically flat with this year. You did 42% conceptually speaking, could have been a little bit higher if Q4 hadn’t been as low as it was. So essentially looking at two years of 42%, 43% gross margin, is that the ongoing gross margin going forward, one, Jim? And then two, you just made some comments on OpEx but if we go, I'm looking three to five years out, are we looking at this gross margin three to five years out, are we looking at the same OpEx growth, 3% or 4% or so, is that something that’s sustainable for gross margin and OpEx as you look out multiple years?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Ehud, let me take the sort of first part of that in terms of margin and I understand the math around the guidance. I would say that is not our long-term goal. Our long-term goal is certainly into mid-40s consistently. We’ve had quarters where we -- I mean Q3 of last year we hit 44%. We said at the time we don’t think it’s sustainable because of the mix but we’ve proven that we can do that. As we increasingly diversify the business with more software, more packets, closer to service creation and then to SDN and NFV, so our Agility announcement earlier on this month, those are the things that are going to drive gross margin expansions into the mid-40s. And we think over the next few years we will absolutely achieve that and as that flows through the financials. So I just really encourage folks to think about -- this is not business as usual. This is business as usual plus the shift into this new opportunity that the cloud is driving and the solutions that we’re putting out there. Jim?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

And on OpEx, Ehud, we’re not going to give a specific number on OpEx growth for the next several years. But I think if you look over the past four years, what we assumed is that we can grow revenue faster than OpEx and we will continue to do that. We are absolutely committed to growing our operating profit and increasing our operating margin and we’ve done it now for four years in a row. I see no reason why we won’t continue to do it going forward.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Yeah, you guys have improved, very good. One last thing, we talked about web scale provides seems to be a very big part of the story now. Can you give us a sense as to how large they are as a percent? I think I may have asked this last quarter too. I think in last quarter the answer was somewhere around 5% or so if I remember correctly. Well how large are and did you mentioned that your number two customer was a web scale guy, I can’t put the two comments together?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Yes, yeah we did in fact in web-scale 2.0 the second largest customer in Q4 was a web-scale 2.0 customer. That actually would be top ten for the year as well. So we’re seeing steady growth around…

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

How large is the category?

Gary B. Smith

Management

The category, well we have number one market share in that space, as just announced by Ovum and…

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

As a percent of revenue, what it…?

Gary B. Smith

Management

As a percentage of our revenue directly it’s about 5% to 10% of our total revenue and that’s just taking into account the direct relationship that we have with them. The other point that I would stress over the years we have a lot of other engagements directly and partnering with them into service providers around the world where we also take business. I’ve not included that in that statistic.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Thanks, as we were number two guy, that’s presumably 5%, 6% of revenue, I'm guessing and so that’s a sort of majority of your Webs 2.0 guy revenue, this 5% to 7% is this one guy?

Gary B. Smith

Management

No, that’s just the snapshot of one quarter. We directly -- we have direct relationships with a number of these web-scale players and it ebbs and flows by the quarter but it’s an increasing amount of capacity and in fact I’ll give you another statistic which might help you about a third of our 100 gig port shipments in Q4 were deployed by Web 2.0 providers, the web-scale play.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Okay, that’s very helpful. Thank you.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Great thanks Ehud.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Modoff from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Brian Modoff

Analyst

Yeah, guys just following along Ehud’s question there, so last three quarters non-telco were 20%, then 25% then 30% of your revenues. What were they in this quarter as a percent of your revenues? And then second question’s around Verizon. They have got a 100 gig build out plan in the back half of the year for metro. How do you feel positioned about that project? Thank you.

Gary B. Smith

Management

So the first answer was about Q4 approximately 30% of non-telco revenue if you will in Q4 in fact…

Brian Modoff

Analyst

Flat -- so essentially flat from last quarter as a percent of revenue?

Gary B. Smith

Management

It’s was a little bit higher than that. It’s probably in the early 30s I think it was about 32%, 33% so it was up a little bit in Q4.

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

In fact if we look overall Brian at our 100G port shipments, like Gary was talking about with the web-scale guys a moment ago about half of those went to non-traditional telcos in the quarter, non-traditional telco customers.

Brian Modoff

Analyst

Okay and then…

Gary B. Smith

Management

In terms of Verizon also we don’t want to talk too much around specifics, specific customer we think we’re well positioned but obviously that won’t -- even if successful that won’t contribute to 2015 revenues.

Brian Modoff

Analyst

Thanks, thank you.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Kvaal from Northland. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey T. Kvaal

Analyst

Well, thank you gentlemen. I have a couple. I think one is could you talk a little bit about the dynamics of the gross margin recovering before the revenues starting recovering? I mean typically we see those things marching in somewhat lock-step. And then secondly, Jim maybe this one is for you. You mentioned towards the end of your prepared remarks that you’re expecting significant leverage overtime. I mean I would imagine that is on top of the 7% to 9% operating margin that you told us about for 2015. If there’s anything that you could share there, I’d appreciate it.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Jeff, I'm going to take the first part of it. The gross margin function is purely around the sort of mix and the disproportionate impact that we had in Q4. We’re kind of back to normal services being resumed is another way of putting it. And we don’t need volumes to do that it’s all about mix. Our revenues are up on this time last year, but Q1 is always a challenging quarter from a revenue point of view because of our particular fiscal year where we -- which encompasses the end of the calendar year and the beginning of the next calendar year. So it’s challenging from a telco point of view. But notwithstanding that we’re seeing strong pipeline and demand and we’re also predicting to be up on Q1 last year. Jim?

James E. Moylan, Jr.

Management

Yeah, on the longer term picture, Jeff we didn’t give a number beyond 2015. We think 8% to 9% is a strong improvement from 2014 as we expect to be. We put it out a few years ago that our target was 10% to 12% and we still think that we can get there, I think we’re going to have to get a little bit of help on gross margin to get to that range which we expect to have over the next few years.

Jeffrey T. Kvaal

Analyst

Great and then maybe just one last to slip in is people are asking about web-scale. What mix of the 8700 customers are web-scale versus traditional telco’s versus MSOs, that might help.

Gary B. Smith

Management

I think we have only just released the platform. So it’s very early days and we have seen a mix on that. We have cable companies do it. We have seen a couple of Web 2.0 directly into it. If I look at the engagement though it’s certainly across the board. I mean really is a packet. Steve, do you want to…?

Stephen B. Alexander

Analyst

Sure, I mean the 8700 really anticipates the transition of the edge of the network going from giggy speeds up to 10 giggy speeds and above and that applies to the web-scale it applies to the Tier 1. It’s a platform that’s intended to play into a very diverse set of market and again really relies on additional capability showing up from the edge of the network right through to the core.

Jeffrey T. Kvaal

Analyst

Thank you gentlemen.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rod Hall from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Rod Hall

Analyst

Yeah, hi, guys. Thanks. I just had a couple of questions related to FY ‘15 revenue guidance and also maybe the new product. So the 7% to 9% revenue growth that you guys are talking about, within that what proportion of that revenue do you think you are going to be able to scale next year, if you are five or maybe a little higher this year, you know exiting this year what do you think FY ‘15 look like as a proportion of web-scale? And then you talked, I think, Gary in your comments, you said that you guys are reducing cost on products. I have seen there are some new product in the pipeline next year that are far lower in costs to produce for you guys, that keep those gross margins where you expect them to be. I wonder -- I’m sure you shared that roadmap with the web-scale guys. I think that’s probably a product that’s deployed at AT&T as well. Can you talk a little bit about what the reaction to that has been from the web-scale guys. Do you think that those kinds of products, whatever they are and that’s giving you a lot more traction with web-scale? And I have maybe one more question, thanks.

Gary B. Smith

Management

You know on the growth rate, we are not going to get a specific number for the next year because things are going to move around. But they have been our most rapidly growing segment and if you look at our internal plan they will be our most rapidly growing vertical in 2015. They are still overall, on a direct sales basis less than 10% of the market. So although we are gaining share with number one market share in that space we don’t expect to see them getting to a big double-digit number in the near term. But I would say a couple -- the other things, the other pieces that will grow for us are Ericsson, the new platforms including the A-700, international and particularly the metro. Those are the places where we will be growing. Also some rate will be growing there. So what I’d emphasize though with respect to web-scale is that although direct sales are important and we have top share, they buy a lot of capacity, from our traditional customers. In order to serve that market you need to be in both places and we have actually done extremely well. Our solutions actually are being set in some cases by web-scale customers so it’s for use in our service provider. So it is really great progress there. We are going grow most rapidly with them going forward. Steve, you can say.

Stephen B. Alexander

Analyst

Sure, with regards to the new products, and I’ll cue of for some of the comments that Jim just made. I think it is important to kind of appreciate as the cloud in the web continues to expand is absolutely impacts what we would call the content to content space, which I think frequently is what you have turned to web-scale. But it also impacts the user to content space which is very much a place where tier 1 service providers play and offer service connection. Just as an example and if you are watching high definition streaming video the content to content piece you would typically think as being in the web-scale but your connection from your phone, your house your device to that content, that user to content piece is in most cases provided by a carrier. So in order to address web scale it is critically important to be providing capacity solutions all the way out to the edge of the network as well as inter connecting data centers in the content to content space. And the way that we have designed our portfolio under the open OPNR architecture is intended to do just that. So the products that we are bringing to market will continue to enhance capacity. So higher capacity, more program ability, software defined capabilities as well as a very rich suite of network function virtualization products, which again moves the service providers as well as the web-scale folks from having to ship physical boxes to establish a service, to being able to distribute software to do the exact same thing, establish a service and offer additional value connections. So I mean we're quite confident, the way that we have designed the portfolio, it's going to meet the needs of web-scale, whether it is the user to content piece, again often provided from a carrier Tier 1 service provider or from the content to content to piece which today I think is what you’re typically thinking as being Web 2.0, or what we would call web-scale. You really have to be both to address the market.

Gregg Lampf

Management

Thanks Rod. We can take one last person for questions.

Operator

Operator

And our last question comes from Alex Henderson from Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Getting the closure roll, two times in a row. Kind of like to ask the same basic question I asked last time, except this time a little bit different spin on it. So last time we talked about the AT&T transaction you had implied that you were taking a bunch of upfront pain in order to get further revenue generation from them as a result of winning new contract areas such as the network or cloud to cloud and the other pieces of the puzzle that you weren't really participating in as much in the past, to the long haul, backbone. And it looks like you fell off quite sharply relative to what we would have expected here and you are suggesting that overall your AT&T and Verizon business is going to go down. So I guess, what I'm asking here is to what extent did you actually increase your revenues by giving in this big discount? Have you in fact built a substantial bigger business with AT&T as a result of winning those additional two to three segments of their end market? Is that a '15 event or is that something that really takes all the way out into '16 before it metastasizes. I'm trying to figure out why did you give away such a big discount if your business with AT&T seems to be not doing much?

Gary B. Smith

Management

Alex, I certainly wouldn't describe our business with AT&T as not doing much. There are substantial costs to run that and they will be going forward, as I think it's inappropriate for us to get into a lot of specific detail around. Let me give you sort of a view, I think where -- I think I understand the issues around the economics, but I think the real opportunity and the whole driver of Domain 2.0 is to provide better economics, but really change the architecture. So be an SDN type, NFE type architecture which aligns completely with our OPN, open vision. We are excited by the opportunity for a major carrier to adopt that kind of architecture and we want to make sure that we are aligned around that and I really think we are. So we feel we’ve got great opportunities within AT&T and this architecture that they're driving. That's a multi-year program. We're well positioned in multiple parts of their network and over the course of the next one to five years we actually think we couldn't grow our business there because we are now into different parts of the business and as we get to more software orientation around service creation, the revenues might not be as great over the time. But the gross margin opportunity will, because it's predominantly software. Steve do you remember any other architectural…?

Stephen B. Alexander

Analyst

I think as Gary noted, right, I think it's critically important to remember the Domain 2.0 program was a vision, right an architectural vision for them to migrate away from kind of standard way people built networks the last couple decades, [indiscernible] rings on top of rings over that. They have a clear vision they want to move towards a software-defined infrastructure. To Gary's point it aligns very well with what we've done with open OPN and that gives us the chance to play in a much broader, a much more diversified manner inside of that opportunity. We expect that the open architecture will be featured in a lot of what we do going forward. Many customers have moved towards a more SDN-based architecture and are expecting to be able to reduce cost of operating the network from SDN as well as to the network function virtualization that also features now with Agility Matrix. So again we believe we are very well positioned for the architectures of the future and yes there was a price of admission to get there, but this is all about the future.

Gary B. Smith

Management

Just to be clear Alex, just so no one misunderstands our comments. What we said was that our two top customers will decline as a percent of revenue in 2015, as they have for the last couple of years. It’s not intended to imply that they are going to be important customers for us. We think -- we suspect that those two customers will be our two biggest customers and that we will grow with them overtime. But it’s a statement of diversification and we think that’s a good thing. So that’s what the comment was, it was combined. It was we didn’t make a comment about either one of them individually just to be clear.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Gregg Lampf

Management

Thank you, Alex we will conclude the call. Thank you very much for taking the time. We look forward to connecting with everybody shortly.