Earnings Labs

Core Laboratories N.V. (CLB)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to the Core Laboratories’ Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Demshur, Chairman, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

David Demshur

Analyst

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning in North America, good afternoon in Europe and good evening in Asia Pacific. We’d like to welcome all of our shareholders, analysts and most importantly, our employees to Core Laboratories’ fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call. This morning, I am joined by Dick Bergmark, Core’s Executive Vice President and CFO; Core’s COO, Monty Davis, who will present a detailed operational review and Chris Hill, Core’s IR Analyst. The call will be divided into five segments. Chris will start by making remarks regarding forward-looking statements. We’ll then come back and review market conditions and give an analysis of Core Laboratories’ actions taken in 2008-2009 downturn compared to Core Lab actions expected to be taken in the 2014 to 2015 downturn, then some comments on some technological targets for the year 2015. Dick will follow with a detailed financial overview and additional comments regarding building shareholder value, Core’s first quarter 2015 outlook and a general industry outlook as it pertains to Core’s continued growth prospects. Then Monty will go over Core’s three operating segments, detailing our progress and discussing the continued successful introduction of new Core Lab technologies that relate to completing, stimulating and producing wells and then highlighting some of Core’s operations and major projects worldwide. Then we’ll open the phones for a Q&A session. I’ll turn it over to Chris for remarks regarding forward-looking statements. Chris?

Chris Hill

Analyst

Before we start this conference call this morning, I’ll mention that some our statements that we make during the call may include projections, estimates and other forward-looking information. This would include any discussion of the Company’s business outlook. These types of forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties relating to the oil and gas industry, business conditions, international markets, international political climate and other factors, including those discussed in our 34 Act filings that may affect our outcome. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of these assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary from material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For more a detailed discussion of some of our foregoing risks and uncertainties, see item 1A, Risk Factors, in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013, as well as other reports and registration statements filed by us with the SEC. Our comments include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included in the press release announcing our fourth quarter results. Those non-GAAP financial measures can also be found on our Web site. With that said, I’ll pass the discussion back to Dave.

David Demshur

Analyst

Well, thanks Chris. We’d like to look at market conditions and analyze some of the 2015 markets that Core Lab will be challenged by. Core believes that today’s crude oil markets are imbalanced by a 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day. Using a net annual production decline per grade of 2.5% on 89 million barrels of worldwide production daily, coupled with capital investment rates falling year-over-year by approximately 30%. Crude oil markets should balance late in 2015. Some general methodology in how we arrived at that looking at U.S. supply and supply gains. First of all, looking at 2015, we used and removed some 800 to 1,000 rigs from the peak of the market in the fall of last year. In general, for unconventional production adds, we used a 70% decline curve rate in year-one, a 40% decline curve rate in year-two and a 20% decline curve rate in year-three. We applied those unconventional production additions in 2012, ’13 and ’14, and determined that the crude oil production that needs to be replaced owing to these decline curves exceeded over 2 million barrels heading into 2015. Moreover, at current prices when one looks at the NPV of a well compared to the company’s or the operators’ cost of capitals, additional wells will not be completed with current pricing, as over 60% of the well costs are tied to completion and stimulation cost. Wells might be drilled but they might be extended for their completion times. Just look at a recent report from Continental as an example. They have some of the best acreage in the Bakken and they’re going to go from 50 to 31 rigs and they’re going to weigh completion and stimulation events on every well drilled. So this presents the backdrop from what we see…

Dick Bergmark

Analyst

Thanks David. Looking at the income statement, revenues were 278.6 million in the fourth quarter versus 276.3 million in the fourth quarter of last year, representing a 1% increase year-over-year. Revenues for the full year of 1.1 billion, a record as David said also up from the year ago totals. Of these revenues services for the quarter 200.3 million, down slightly when compared to 201 million last year, but for the full year services were up 2% on a year-over-year basis. Product sales for the quarter were up 4%. For the full year, they’re up 1%. Moving on to cost of services for the quarter 56.6% which was better, an improvement than the 57.2% of service revenues in the fourth quarter of 2013. And cost of services also improved for the entire year to 57.6% from 58.1% in 2013. Cost of sales in the fourth quarter they were 70.5% of sales revenues which again was an improvement better than the 70.8% of sales revenues in the fourth quarter of 2013. G&A for the quarter was 11.7 million down from last year’s fourth quarter. For the full year, G&A was 45.7 million, representing 4.2% of revenues for the year. That’s down when compared to 4.8% of revenues in the prior year. Depreciation and amortization for the quarter 6.9 million and that’s up from that incurred in last year’s fourth quarter. For the full year, depreciation and amortization expense was 26.7 million slightly higher than the 25.5 million in the prior year as a result of our capital expenditures aimed at technology, services and products. Other expense this quarter primarily includes foreign exchange losses of 2.1 million due to the strength of the dollar. The guidance we gave on our last call for the quarter specifically excluded the impact of any FX…

Monty Davis

Analyst

Thanks Dick. The fourth quarter of 2014 was our best quarter ever. Setting records for revenue, operating income excluding FX and operating margins. The credit for these achievements goes to our 5,000 employees around the globe and we thank them. Reservoir description revenue of 131.7 million was up slightly sequentially and operating earnings of 37.3% were increased 2.8% over Q3 2014. Operating margins of 28.3% improved 60 basis points from the prior quarter and reaching our highest in four quarters. Leading these margins higher has been the structural expansion of the high-end of the reservoir fluids market that only Core can serve. Recently our reservoir fluids services group completed a number of U.S. enhanced oil recovery projects to investigate the viability of miscible-gas injection into their reservoirs. These reservoirs had been on water injection for several decades to the point that their oil production was barely sufficient to sustain production cost. The EOR studies included targeting of the minimum miscibility pressure at which the injection gas would displace oil from the formation most effectively. Miscible-gas injection is extremely efficient at the pricing much of the remaining oil so it makes sense to investigate the feasibility of available gas to flood these older reservoirs. In some cases carbon dioxide is available. But as the natural gas is abundant it makes sense to test both to review the economics of one over the other. Core Lab’s worldwide expertise in determining the optimum gas composition and injection pressure is unsurpassed. The EOR studies performed in our state of the art laboratories investigate compositional changes that occur as a result of gas mixing with oil, how much the oil swells and how the mixed fluid viscosity is reduced. All of these factors along with the core flood experiments factoring in a variety of rock…

Question-and

Analyst

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Ole Slorer of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ole Slorer

Analyst

I think it’s difficult to have a view on anything at the moment without having some view on how global oil demands -- supply versus demand is incrementally moving. You mentioned 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of excess capacity at the moment production -- are you talking about production relative to consumption or production capacities there has been another firm commenting a little bit about the difference of the two. Well, what’s your view on this issue and also how we are moving? You gave some color on North America. Maybe you could also elaborate so at what point do you actually see North America production sequentially rolling over when rates are down year-over-year? And also where else in the world do you see issues with production emerging as a result of the current CapEx cuts? And on declines you mentioned DIA number. But I would imagine that the decline is also a function of the investment in the field. So if you can shed some light on your views on that.

David Demshur

Analyst

Well, starting with the methodology that we use to look at U.S. production, pretty much frame that in the unconventionals. So if you apply those numbers, and I gave general numbers, but when we apply the specific numbers to the individual basins there is a possibility depending on the number of wells that are drilled, completed and stimulated that we could see a reversal in production gains from unconventionals in the U.S. sometimes in the fourth quarter of this year. So, that’s why we are predicting as we did back in 2008-2009 as a V-shaped recovery because as you look at rising oil prices, the cost of capital net present value of wells I think right now in the Bakken you have got 775 wells that have been drilled but have not been completed and stimulated. So there is a backlog that backlog will start to be eaten into when crude prices get to a level where it makes sense for those operators to complete and stimulate those wellbores. Worldwide areas that we think that will be the hardest hit with respect to challenges on maintaining production look no further than Russia, this will be a high decline rate environment. When we look at the amount of investment that’s gone in, the investment needed that certainly will be one area that is certainly susceptible to high levels of production declines somewhere on the order above our worldwide decline curve rate of 2.5% continuing certainly in the North Sea where we will see decline curve exacerbated due to the lack of investment. Other areas that production gains might be needed would be Central and South America and some portions of West Africa.

Ole Slorer

Analyst

And just to clarify when you say year-over-year in reversal of gains, sorry fourth quarter reversal of gains do you mean year-over-year that in the fourth quarter as when you expect year-over-year declines?

David Demshur

Analyst

That is correct.

Ole Slorer

Analyst

Secondly, looking at your own business and its context and comparing it what you and I describe as cycle should be similar to the last one you went through. At that point in time you went down I think about 12% or so 12.5% year-over-year third quarter ’08 to third quarter ’09 you are guiding something similar to that now here in the first quarter, your business from a revenue mix that in the directions is reasonably similar but you are now making much more money out of a couple of high-tech products. Do you think that it makes you more than normal as operators’ cuts back on anything they can cut back on I mean the HERO charges and FlowProfiler are certainly initiative products, but are there risks of a bigger decline do you think compared to the prior cycle or should be similar. How do you think about that?

David Demshur

Analyst

Well, because we do have a higher level of production enhancement revenues at higher margins, it could look dissimilar with 2008-2009 just because when you look at margins in production enhancement they are so much higher, and it is a higher percentage of our business. That being said with rolling out FlowProfiler and things like our KODIAK Energized Perforating System, I will turn that over to Monty on some comments on market penetration of those that might certainly meet those declines that we would see due to lesser activities.

Monty Davis

Analyst

We have spent the last two weekends with key client groups discussing exactly those products and a few others that how they can derive more value and what they are doing. How they can derive value from their reservoirs by using these services, these perforating methodologies and products to enhance what they are doing and get more out of it. Those two client groups are very well received on these, a lot of interest and expanding the use of both the FlowProfiler and in particular the KODIAK Energized Perforating Systems to enhance what they are going to be doing in this coming year. We have a couple of more of these sessions planned and on the schedule with some more key clients in the coming couple of months. And we are encouraged that our market penetration will in fact increase as the clients seek the best value in what they are doing.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from James West of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

James West

Analyst

Dick a quick question for you on liquidity at this point, and I am sorry if I missed this earlier, but how much do you have available to repurchase stock at this point?

Dick Bergmark

Analyst

Yes, what David referred to was our revolver going up to 350 million. And so what we gave on the call about the amounts drawn at 206 million, so we have got another say 344 million.

James West

Analyst

And then in terms of timing of getting back at the market, you have obviously not reported earnings when can you start buying back stock again? Can you buyback I mean today your stocks were down it looks like pretty large, can you get back in today or do you have to wait few days?

Dick Bergmark

Analyst

We follow the various NYSE and Euronext rules. And when we have all inside information public those restrictions don’t apply at this point.

Monty Davis

Analyst

Let’s just say when we see that James when we are back in we will be certainly aggressive buyers at these levels.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from James Chase Mulvehill of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Chase Mulvehill

Analyst

Just wanted to touch on the reservoir description, I think most guys I talk to kind of have struggled with how to model this segment, so if you can kind of just help us understand, how much of this segment is driven by exploration spending and kind of OpEx or production related spending? And then talk to how much of this segment is driven by NOC excluding Pemex and Petrobras? And then how much is assumed by kind of IOCs?

David Demshur

Analyst

Okay, think about a reservoir description in its total being a very international, very crude oil-related business, so the 85% of their revenues are generated from reservoirs, fluids and rocks outside of the U.S. So that would be one parameter. It is a very development and production oriented business, so it doesn’t have a lot of exploration component. In needle we look to 2008 and 2009, I think those revenues were down just a couple of 3% and we would expect that in 2014 and 2015 as well. So think about that as a stable platform, looking at fields that are already under production, projects related to enhanced oil recovery projects both on the fluids and the rock side. And as we try to make the theme of this earnings release, the importance of reservoir fluid especially high-end within Core is this is a business that essentially Core has a wide technological lead on all others. We’ve been asked many times about this structural decline of this business, we don’t know where this is coming from, but certainly when I look at that business, it is growing double-digits year-over-year-over-year. So that part of the high-tech fluid business is certainly a dull weather in coming and holding revenues and holding margins in that business.

Chase Mulvehill

Analyst

One quick follow-up, just so we’re not surprised as we move forward to 2Q and I know there’s a not a lot of visibility, but if we think about oh what happened in ’09 and we look at year-over-year not quarter-over-quarter the peak year-over-year revenue declines they were 17% if we looked at it quarterly and so is that a fair assumption to say that you won’t do worse than 17% year-over-year as we roll forward into 2015?

David Demshur

Analyst

Little too early to tell on that, let’s see how the Q1 rolls out and how many rigs go down. And that’s why we didn’t give any further guidance. Perhaps on the conference calls from other oil field service companies, they will then assertion some solid information on there on what they see in Q2.

Chase Mulvehill

Analyst

And decrementals would be much better than 60%?

David Demshur

Analyst

Well we’re striving towards that and we’ve got to right size our cost base which we are doing today.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Phillip Lindsay of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Phillip Lindsay

Analyst

Two questions if I could. First one is reservoir description related, when you look at the six or so flagship labs that you have internationally where would your main utilization concerns be outside the U.S. and further if we look back at the last downturns in 2009, slightly unusual performance I thought from the business, margins were actually up on lower revenues, can you just remind us was there something one-off in nature about that performance or was the mix particularly favorable for example or do you think you can actually repeat that this time around?

David Demshur

Analyst

I don’t know if Phillip we can repeat it, but remember back in 2008-2009 we did have a good bit of support of worldwide deepwater developments. That’s a little lesser today, although we duly want that we think that the deepwater Gulf of Mexico will be a stalwart in adding and/or maintaining a revenue base with the possibility of maintaining or increasing margins and also we’ve made number of comments on Core’s reservoir fluid business also being some support for those revenues. Areas of weakness that we anticipate in taking actions on would certainly be Canadian operations our Advanced Technology Center in Calgary would be one. And then the other would be the Asia-Pacific arena with our flagship lab in Kuala Lumpur. Other than those two, we see steady as it goes through the year even though international spending probably will be down somewhere on the order of 10%.

Phillip Lindsay

Analyst

Okay, surprising to hear Europe or Aberdeen absent from that…

David Demshur

Analyst

Yes Phil as you know because you visited there, heavy in the fluids business. And so they are a prime example of the market share and the technological lead we have in those business and certainly that is our worldwide leading fluids lab so it’s no surprise to us that they’re not including in those remarks.

Phillip Lindsay

Analyst

Second question, look to get your views on rig productivity as well as well productivity today versus 2009 or previous downturns obviously can’t show the mix is different today, so what is your view on how production rates may fall versus previous downturns?

David Demshur

Analyst

Well, I think -- we think they’ll fall higher. As we think about all the methodology that has been used, what are we trying to do? We’re trying to speed up when we capture that NPV. So when we look at the number or the length of the lateral, the number of stages that are being used, the number of propane that’s being pumped, it is indeed the capture that MPV in a quicker period of time. So when you look at decline curve rates in these unconventionals, you’ll actually see that they have increased over the year slightly but due to capturing that NPV in a quicker part of time.

Operator

Operator

Okay. The next question will be from Rob MacKenzie of IBERIA Capital. Please go ahead.

Rob MacKenzie

Analyst

A couple here somewhat related to what we have heard before. I guess one of the questions I get from investors a lot is what does the next debt cycle look like? And to put it into context and using of your language we have seen apparently a decline in spending on some of the established unconventionals. Which plays do you think are likely to be and the relevant with each one the primary drivers of Core’s growth in the next debt cycle?

David Demshur

Analyst

Well, certainly, international deepwater will go to the forefront once again, probably followed by activity levels in the Middle East so those would be really the two that we continue to concentrate on. You’ve got to mention unconventionals you got to keep that in the certainly in the listing of areas on the upturn when we get a rebound in crude oil prices so I would think that would frame it Rob.

Rob MacKenzie

Analyst

And calibrating your kind of as you have been giving some color in your guidance for the first quarter. I understand the high decrementals. But if were to normalize for not being able to keep up the cost and say if you were able or put another way if you were able to cut cost commensurately with the decline where do you think that EPS number would be? Once you get the costs lined up with along with activity?

David Demshur

Analyst

An EPS number, probably with revenue down 12% decremental somewhere in the 20s so probably somewhere on the order of, I’m doing the math in my head a 1.28, something like that I think that mathematics works.

Rob MacKenzie

Analyst

And do you expect the similar kind of quarterly progression this time versus say 2008-2009?

David Demshur

Analyst

Typically yes, and let’s see how Q1 goes out and how many rigs do go down. We have been surprised by the number of rigs that have gone down since the peak. We think that trend continues.

Operator

Operator

And due to time constrains is there time for one more question sir?

David Demshur

Analyst

Yes, I will take a couple of more Andrew.

Operator

Operator

All right, we have Kurt Hallead from RBC. Please go ahead.

Kurt Hallead

Analyst

Interesting times indeed, yes I am just kind of curious Dave, if I take to wanting questioning this way, right. This kind of reminds that if you kind of look at the lot of the rhetoric and commentary and the rig count drops and the production curve increases on crude oil, I don’t know. It could be a lot of the similarities that were made a couple of years ago about natural gas and now natural gas production curves are going to roll over and I understand there is dynamics there that with associated natural gas could mask those elements. But I am just wondering when you look at this dynamic and the question that we have been getting about duration of a lower oil price environment. You have already spelled out your scenario of a much more of a V-shape recovery. But when you go on and kind of risk assessed your outlook what do you think the risk of that outlook could be? What could cause it to be less as a V and more of a U let’s say?

David Demshur

Analyst

Production gains from -- unexpected production gains from other parts of the world so for instance if you had unexpected production gains off of in the Atlantic margins area we currently don’t see those occurring or rapid increases in production from projects in the Middle East we don’t see those occurring. Well I guess that would be one factor that could make it a U or even tend to an L shape recovery. But we just don’t see that in the cards we’ve got the laws of physics and thermodynamics that go to work every day on the producing oilfields. Moreover, if we look at the oil versus natural gas market another contained market for natural gas here in the U.S. and a much more stable production base in that market as opposed to a worldwide crude oil market especially when we’re going to see exports of crude oil to the international marketplace probably be approved in earnest over the year or year and a half.

Operator

Operator

We have a question then from Blake Hutchinson from Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Blake Hutchinson

Analyst

I will just keep it to one and keep it pretty open-ended for you David just because I am tailing in here.

David Demshur

Analyst

Thanks Blake.

Blake Hutchinson

Analyst

Just I was hoping to get it’s fairly well delineated where we are going here in the U.S. And I think you noted earlier that your international outlook is kind of predicated on risking explorations out of the book and then putting turning it up versus the kind of ’08-’09 timeframe. But maybe you could just take us around in terms of your franchise specifically and give us some of the positives and negatives that you see from your broad international franchise in ’15 over ’14. You talked somewhat about the product line maybe geographic winners and losers or whatever you like to catch that can you maybe give us the greater feel for how you think the international market unfolds for the year-over-year period?

David Demshur

Analyst

As I have mentioned we have looked at the international market we think spending year-over-year can be as down as much as 10% with some of the areas being the most affected would be Central and South America, parts of the West Coast of Africa, certainly North Africa, Asia Pacific and certainly Russia. We would see higher levels, relatively higher levels of activity levels for us in Middle East and in North City.

Blake Hutchinson

Analyst

Okay, that’s helpful.

David Demshur

Analyst

Yes, Middle East being rocks and fluids and North Sea primarily being fluids.

Blake Hutchinson

Analyst

Just one point of clarification, Dick and we talked a lot about 60% year-over-year decrementals for the first quarter, just oversetting the first quarter right. And I thought I heard it 80% coming to your preamble so was that specifically directed at year-over-year production enhancement. I guess I would think of that as being more maybe 100% plus decremental, I am just making sure I didn’t hear an 80% in there incorrectly?

Dick Bergmark

Analyst

You heard me say that but I was incorrect and misspoke, it’s 60%.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference back over to David Demshur for any closing remarks.

David Demshur

Analyst

Okay, well I would like to thank everybody for joining us this morning. In summary, Core’s operations posted another all-time record quarter. We know significant challenges await in 2015. However, we have never been better operationally or technologically positioned to help our clients to maintain and expand their existing production base. We remain uniquely focused and are the most technologically advanced reservoir optimization company in the oil field services sector. The company remains committed to industry-leading levels of free cash generation, returns on invested capital and excess capital being returned to our shareholders. So in closing we would like to thank all of our shareholders and the analysts who follow Core and as already noted by Monty Davis the executive management and Board of Core Laboratories gives special thanks to our 5,000 worldwide employees that have made these outstanding results possible. We are proud to be associated with the continued achievements. So thanks for spending your time with us this morning. And we look forward to our next update. Good bye for now.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.