Earnings Labs

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Shannon, and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Cliffs Natural Resources 2015 First Quarter Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to introduce Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thanks, Shannon. Thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we start, I would like to introduce our new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Kelly Tompkins. Many of the participants on the call today already know Kelly from Cliffs or from his previous experience as CFO of another publicly traded company. Since my first day at Cliffs, Kelly has been my most valuable player and second in command. With Kelly's moved to the CFO spot, Cliffs missed move to Kelly's previous position as Head of Business Development and the reduction of one executive level position in our organization charge, I feel very comfortable, we have the right players in the right positions to execute our USIO-centric strategy. With that, I will now turn it over to Kelly Tompkins for the financial overview portion of today's call.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Lourenco, and thanks to everyone for joining us on this morning's call. As I take the helm as Cliffs' CFO, I do so very mindful of the challenges ahead of us. Cliffs has show resiliency throughout its long history and now that we are strategically focused and fully aligned our financial and operating priorities, I am very confident we will manage through the current cycle. With that, let me remind you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the Safe Harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the Company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on our website. Today’s conference call is also available and being broadcast at cliffsnaturalresources.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. We will also discuss our results excluding certain special items, reconciliation for Reg-G purposes can be found in our earnings release, which was published after market yesterday. In addition, to briefly reviewing the results of our first quarter financial performance, I will briefly recap our recently completed refinancing efforts. Beginning with the first quarter results, including coal, we achieved revenue of $574 million and adjusted EBITDA of $94 million. Despite significant decreases in pricing for iron ore, steel and metallurgical coal, we were able to generate positive EBITDA from all of our businesses. In the face of a tough macro environment, we have and will…

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thanks, Kelly, and thanks to everyone joining the call this morning. Since we took office in August last year and implemented a new USIO-centered strategy, we have been executing with discipline and making progress on all fronts. Among the several steps taken, the most relevant one was the CCAA filing by the Bloom Lake Group. Had we not stopped the bleeding at Bloom Lake, this Q1 conference call would certainly be a lot different. The CCAA process has so far developed very smooth and even predictable way. All of the expected disagreements, lawsuits, drags of lawsuits and general statements from creditors of the Bloom Lake entities are being addressed within the scope of the process under the supervision of the monitor and ultimately subject to the power of the court. The main highlights of this CCAA process are the following. Claims from the creditors of the Bloom Lake entities have been staged as part of the court process. Unfavorable contracts, including the take or pay rail contract have been disclaimed. The sale of assets has been approved by the court and the process is well underway. The Bloom Lake Group currently has a cash balance of about $45 million and their average expected outflow per week is only a little over $1 million. Additionally, with the stay period going through the end of July, and with the majority of the proceeds of the recently announced sale of the Chromite assets going to fund the CCAA process, we maintain our expectation that no additional finance will be needed. Last, but not least, we confirm our previous statement that we do not anticipate any Cliffs' exposure to the Bloom Lake creditors throughout the entire CCAA process. Our liability exposure number for such creditors, which was estimated to be $650 million to $700…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Michael Gambardella of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Yes. Good morning, Lourenco.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open

I just want to say before I ask my question, I guess, I wanted to say congratulations on all the hard work in making all these tough decisions that are under your control. I know there is a lot of uncontrollable factors that have been going against you, but I applaud you for all your efforts to cut costs, make the hard decisions like up in Canada and so forth, so congratulations and great work so far.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you very much. Appreciate your kind words.

Michael Gambardella

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open

My question is you know with the seaborne price plummeting for the last year or so, the silver lining I think of lower seaborne prices, is that you know a number of people were projecting that there would be increases in U.S. iron ore capacity to compete against you and I would think with these low prices that all of those people are fallen by the wayside whether it is US Steel, Essar now Magnetation, which looks like may seize operation, soon. With that elimination of supply that some people had expected AK Steel may need some more iron ore for their U.S. operations, ArcelorMittal, who had expected to get some material from Essar may need more and more iron ore from, because the alternative as everyone knows - display is just cost prohibitive with $30 per ton freight rate on a $55 product. When you are approaching some of these contracts that are coming up at the end of next year how do you balance trying to get a better price because you know the premium that these people have to pay to go through the same St. Lawrence Seaway, and keeping them somewhat happy.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Again, thanks for your great comments and I appreciate your support and encouragement. Michael, believe or not, we have a lot more control over things that people say they do not control. You gave me a lot of things here to work with. To answer your question about the context, but me start bringing back things to the right size. People talk a lot about the world being flooded with iron ore. That is a true statement that at this point, but the biggest problem for iron ore price at this point is not even the fact that the world is being flooded with iron ore. It is the fact that the market and the press and the investors are being flooded with that information about the expansion plan of three companies and these three companies are Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale. The current prices of iron ore fine sinter feed in the seaborne market are being depressed at this point not by the fact that these guys produce a lot of iron ore sinter feed, but by the fact that they are saying that they will produce a lot more, so we will have for example just to give you a good number, easy one to understand, you have Vale saying, we produced 310 million tons a year, but I am going to 460, so that is another 40 SKU on top of what they have right now. You have currently Rio Tinto producing something like 250 billion tons, but saying that they are going to produce 360. That is two Roy Hills on top of the existing production. You have Roy Hill producing nothing, because Roy Hill - they are just the landlord of Rio Tinto, but saying that starting September, we are going we are going to…

Michael Gambardella

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open

No. That is good. Thank you Lourenco for that.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

Good morning, Lourenco and Kelly.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Good morning, Aldo.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

Yes. I had two separate questions. First, if could just about DRI for a second, Lourenco. If you had your success in penetrating that market, would you be able to supply at all out of the U.S. iron ore mining or would you need to expand your mines a little bit?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Actually, we have a plan here that works supplying DRI out of U.S. iron ore and working out of only four mines instead of five, so we cannot only supply from the USIO, but we can also optimize the footprint in order to further reduce costs while we are doing that.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

In your plan going forward, how much volume do you think you would be mining then compared to the $21 million or $22 million you do today? Would it be much higher, a few million tons higher or would it be roughly the same, you think?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, it is very premature to say that, because we do not have enough discussion with the potential buyers of DRI to know the depth of their needs, but you know when we start digging, you will find interesting stuff. For example, one company that already buys HBI, we are talking about the same thing, HBI in the international market, and I do not know but I believe I would have a serious chance to supply would be case field, because as far as I know, they buy from Venezuela, and Venezuela is not a reliable supplier of absolutely anything. AK Steel has integrated, they do have funds, so there is a lot of potential, a lot potential so we may be talking initial moment about let us say 5 million tons, but this 5 can become 10 very quickly. Our target of 10 million tons in three years is the 10 million tons of DRI supply is not a crazy, is not impossible.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

I like the idea, Lourenco, of the merchants' facility as a very novel idea, but I had a second question too just on your pricing trend. The $93 a ton was very impressive in the first quarter and I am wondering there must be somewhat of a lag effect on what the IODEX is doing in future quarters. Could you say roughly if iron ore prices were to say bottom out around year, would you think that your selling price stays around the 90 or 85 or so as you get through the middle of the year? What do you think the price outlook would be on in a flat IODEX environment?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, we give in our press release, we give that guidance on the price, so I would refer you to the table that we provided in the press release yesterday, so that is a good guidance. The fact that will go up 93 in Q1 is just because of the things are not as square as they look on paper, some contracts had lagged, some contracts had carryovers, some of our clients did not take all the tonnage of 2014 contracts and then we got a carryover in Q1, so not that they are ahead of the gain, so it is a mix of a bunch of things, but a good middle of the road guidance is the table that we provided in our press yesterday.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you. Any update on the timing of a coal sale?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

We are getting a lot closer than we were last quarter. That's the reason we moved coal to the category of assets held for sale, so we are getting close. We are not done yet, we are negotiating with the multiple buyers at this point. There is no assurance that any of one we will close before some other analysts say that my credibility is check because I am saying that I will sell coal, so for the record there is no assurance that I will sell coal, but also there is no assurance that you that say that will be alive tomorrow. You can buy tonight, so nobody knows the future, so we believe we are going to sell. We do believe we are going to sell as we sold Logan County, so we are working. Stay tuned.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

Right. Thanks very much Lourenco.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you for being the only research analyst with a buy recommendation on my stock. If there is lot to know history of a CEO, and you know me for close to 17 years now, so I appreciate the vote of confidence on what we are doing here.

Aldo Mazzaferro

Analyst · Aldo Mazzaferro of Macquarie. Your line is now open

It is all you.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open.

Kevin Cohen

Analyst · Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open

Good morning, and thanks for taking the questions, very nice quarter overall. I guess, Lourenco, a couple of things. First as it relates to the Mittal contract renewals that you alluded to. You mentioned it would likely be on good terms from the perspective of both, Cliffs and Mittal. I am just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on what that might mean for Cliffs, whether it is relative to the first quarter ASP or anything sort of directionally you could allude to on that?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thanks, Kevin. I appreciate the kind words. Regarding the two contracts with ArcelorMittal, we are talking about total of close to 10 million tons of pallets. In theory, everything is possible. Everything is possible, though contract cannot be renewed, so we do not have a contract after December 2016. The contract can be partially renewed, so just half of the tonnage, then the other tonnage will come from somewhere else for some other supply or we can renew the entire contract. We have been supplying this news that are covered by this contract for several decades. Let's face it, so there is a history for first glitter in Cliffs and the news under denominations. Now, there is a long history between Cliffs Natural Resources and ArcelorMittal, we are partners at [indiscernible]. We own [ph] together among other mines, so we know each other costs extremely well. We know each other products extremely well, we know how the performance of the pallets go in blast furnace A, B, C, D, E, F, G, we know everything about each other. When I say with a high degree of conviction that we are going to renew this contract in a way that will be good for Cliffs and good for us ArcelorMittal would say, I am basing my conclusion on what's going on right now and what happened in the last several years, so there is absolutely no indication right now that anyone, including Cliffs or ArcelorMittal would say we will act in an unexpected way even because we all know that even though the world has a lot of sinter feed available, the world does not have a lot of pallets available. Let alone here in the United States. Here in the United States, for some years we have been living with…

Kevin Cohen

Analyst · Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open

Then two other really quick financial questions, I know in the past, the company alluded to the desire to capture secondary market discount. I guess, to the extent you think about where we are today, there has been a nice rally in the bonds, but how do you think about the 2018 at this point? I know that you did do an interview and did alluded to those on March 26, and just kind of where is your head out sort of on those today in the low 80s?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, we continue to pursue debt reduction through liability management exercise. It is one thing that I believe that I brought to this company that I can do a very well, I have done before especially at Metals USA, we took advantage of the opportunities that leverage finance market gave us and we took advantage of that. We bought bonds at a discount. The 2018, we will be taking care of at the right time. I have not done that. I know you have a different opinion. I respect your opinion as a very knowledgeable high yield person, but we decided not to take care of the 2018 yet, but because we are waiting for the right moment with the right transaction. It is coming. We are not going to ignore the 2018. We will take care of those bonds.

Kevin Cohen

Analyst · Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open

Then a last question Lourenco, as it relates to tax receivable on the balance sheet, any update in terms of how much cash that should convert into late this year?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

I will let Kelly Tompkins reply that to you, Kevin.

Kevin Cohen

Analyst · Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open

Yes. Thanks.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

I think Kevin you would see on the balance sheet reflected about $165 million. We would certainly expect to get that before year-end. We are pushing to get it in mid-to-late Q3, but certainly by Q4, so it is a significant component of our anticipated cash this year.

Kevin Cohen

Analyst · Kevin Cohen of Imperial Capital. Your line is now open

That's very helpful. Thanks and good luck as always guys.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open.

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

Thanks. Lourenco, just on the U.S. If I annualize the first-quarter production, it's coming in about 21.5 million tons. I know you have cut the numbers there. Can you speak to one, does that mean you are going to have to slow down production? Two, does the volume part relate to customers having revised your nomination or are you taking down numbers in anticipation of that?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, based on, Brian, the information and based on our decision here on the information that they have available and the input that the clients are giving to us. At this point, without putting any optimism into our forecast, I am assuming that none of the blast furnaces that are now shut down, will come back to operation. With that, we will reduce our output accordingly, so we will be especially in Q2 and Q3, we are going to reduce production. That's for sure. As we speak right now and my guys informing the folks in Michigan, that we are going to take one mine down, so that is the consequence of the current requirements of the clients. This being said, I do believe that they are being too conservative, but I have to act on the information that I have, so as they revise up, their intentions in terms of production, we will revise ours accordingly and we will be ready, but that's what we have so far. Did I miss something in your question, Brian?

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

No. You did answer it. Let's say that things improve and we talked about earlier maybe AK in innings of additional tons, how quickly can you turn the volume back up?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

It's quick. We compares would be our pallet plant like ours would react as quickly as for instance steel mill, so we basically can turn on and off very quickly.

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

Okay. Can I yield one more question in on reclamation?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Please.

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

You called in end-of-life for Australia. Are there any cash expenses towards the tail end of that? Then a similar question with Bloom Lake, I do not know if there was exited or not we did mention reclamation at Bloom Lake as part of CCAA, so we would that be fully covered too?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Yes. I will let Kelly answer the reclamation question, but just a clarification based on what you wrote in your report that you said that you believe that we are going to idle APIO. We are not going to idle APIO, okay, Brian? We are going to continue to pursue the cost adding cash cost to CapEx. We are going to pursue BHP and Rio. If they continue to go down or continue to go down, the difference is that I have no commitment to stay in Australia, and they have the full commitment to stay in Australia, so everything that they do as consequence. Everything that we will I only do replicate what they are doing, so I would be there worse nightmare, because I know that their game plan is not to shut down Cliffs Koolyanobbing. They could care less about Cliffs' Koolyanobbing, the game plan is to shut down [ph], which they will not be able to accomplish based on what I have seen so far. What I am saying is that I will be like that parasite that will continue to be there sucking their blood through the very end. We are not going to shutdown APIO. We continue to drive costs down, because we know how to do it, we know how to push the button. Three quarters I am here. That is exactly what I have been doing. I will drive cost everyone will give us yes this guy knows how to drive cost down. Until everyone say that I will be relentless, so APIO is not going to shutdown. You can continue to say that, but you should know that you are wrong on that. Kelly, please.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. The other consideration relating to APIO that I alluded to and then I will comment on Bloom Lake, not only the merits of continue to run APIO given the aggressive cost reduction we have already done and we will continue to do is that it also plays into our ABL borrowing capacity as well, so that is a consideration, but absolutely, the focus is running, not idling and at the end of mine life will we will deal whatever reclamation or closure costs would be there. Certainly, in Bloom Lake reclamation is part of the overall CCAA equation, so just considering that part of the package and liabilities that are being addressed is part of the CCAA process.

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

Yeah. If you have reclamation, you called end of the mine life now that the three-and-a-half years left. I know you said, just when you get there, but the time line has come in. I am just curious what that might be.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. At this point, we are not in a position to provide that kind of estimate. As we get closer, you will see that kind of detail reflected in our SEC filings, but not at this point.

Brian Yu

Analyst · Brian Yu from Citi. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Nathan Littlewood

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Thank you very much. I appreciate the opportunity, guys, and the clarification on APIO just now was certainly useful. I had a couple of questions on USIO pricing. It was my understanding that Essar Algoma had a pre-fixed price last year. If I remember it was $114 or $117 a ton or ton or something, but they carried over some tons into the beginning of this year. If you were selling tons to Essar Algoma today that would be somewhere in the $50 at ton range, so there is a pretty big difference in the price you realize between the two. Just wondering if you might be able to help us with what the magnitude of that was in the March quarter numbers?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Nathan, I do not discuss pricing client-by-client. The fact that you know our price or you believe you know our price is a matter of a serious concern for me, because this would be a violation of the confidentiality clause of the contract between Cliffs Natural Resources and Essar Algoma, and you just mentioned that you know the price, so you will eventually will be soup in the lawsuit that I am moving against Essar Algoma based on breach of confidentiality, so I am not going to discuss this subject. What will be your next question.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

No problem, fair enough, Lourenco. The other one was just on the embedded guidance. I believe that at least your public disclosure in the past has been fairly clear that the HRC price is the driver of the in line steel contracts that you have with Mittal. Could you clarify what HRC price is embedded in the current USIO pricing guidance?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Well, the way we talk about hot-rolled prices, the price was not linked into the any index. They are based on the actual prices that the clients execute with their clients, so our relationship with this client, and I am not nominating any specific ones, is so open that we have access to their actual hot-rolled prices, realized prices and they are checked and included in the price going forward. That is the way it works, so of course the indexes are illusively guidance for that, but the actual price is that they practice are much higher than the spot or the index or anything that you may use as a general number for HRC prices.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Yes. Absolutely, and I was aware of that Lorenzo, but I guess when I look at what AK Steel and US Steel have done recently or reported recently I should say they have obviously got a lot of contracts in their order book and the analysis that we have done suggest that those guys are kind of realizing HRC prices, which might be sort of $50 or $60 above the actual spot price, so eventually the contract price of these customers are selling at is going to have to catch up to kind of spot price reality, and I am just wondering sort of what the embedded expectations are on that curve, be it, either the index price or Mittal's average realized price.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, the expectation that prices will continue to go back up, because my expectation is that imported steel is unfairly traded into the United States, will go away and the steel mills AK Steel, included ArcelorMittal, include, the US Steel, included, the Essar Algoma included, we will be able to recover their sales prices to a decent level, because that is just fair and just, so that is my expectation at this point.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Okay. I would certainly agree with that too, but just at the beginning of the year you had talked about I think in embedded assumption of 575 or 580 or somewhere in that neighborhood, I assume that we are a bit lower than that now. Is it possible to give us that number or is that not something you want to discuss?

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Nathan, we are a bit lower, but at this point we are not trying to provide that detail. You will see further disclosure in our Q, but it is slightly lower than what you embedded in your assumption.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Okay. No problem. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Nathan, before you go, just a reminder, you have an EBITDA target for Cliffs Natural Resource for the year of $170 million. In Q1 alone and Q1 is the frozen quarter, is the quarter that we are not shipping, because you can walk between here and your home country in Canada, you know that.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Australia, but yes.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Even with this difficulties, we are able to generate $94 million reasonable in Q1, so now based on your EBITDA target, I am $76 million away from reaching your EBITDA target and I have three quarters to do it just a reminder.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Sure. No problems. We will take another look at the model. Thanks for the feedback, Lourenco.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Yes. Take a look at your price target as well, because you went from 10 to 1, baked into your report the assumption that Cliffs Natural Resource by now would be would be bankrupt, so you were wrong. I am not bankrupt, I am not heading to bankruptcy. Your assumptions are all wrong and the outcome has been bad so far.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Thanks, Lourenco. I appreciate the feedback.

Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

You are very welcome. Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Sussman from Clarkson. Your line is now open.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Yes. Thank you very much for taking my question. I just have one follow-up on coal. Lourenco, in terms of Oak Grove and Pinnacle, is this something that you want to sell together or would you consider selling each separately?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Jeremy, thank you very much for the question, I would take any deal and we have different parties right now and we will disclose that, not all of the ones that are bidding at this point and negotiating with us are buying all the assets altogether. We have different transaction being considered right now. Our only goal is to optimize the results and get to Cliffs the best you can get.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Thank you very much and sounds like we have something to look forward to soon on that front.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Yes. You are right about that. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jorge Beristain from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Good morning, Lourenco, and again congrats on a strong quarter. My question really was two-fold. If you could just clarify a little bit what is going on with the unit cost, because you admitted it is hard given lower fixed cost absorption to lower cost, sequentially, but there was some mention about freight costs being lower. Could you just kind of walk us through how the lower freight costs helped your unit cost, sequentially?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Directionally, the USIO costs are being cut, because we are working towards improving the utilization of our lower cost operation basis. That is the bottom-line. You guys all know that we one mine that has higher costs and that is implied and five of ores that have this [indiscernible] right now a big hole in the ground. It is that the end-of-life of mine. We are approaching the end-of-life of the mine. Actually, we are working overtime over there that mine should have been shutdown two years ago. If I were here two years ago, I would have shutdown that mine at the time, I would have not brought that mine back. It has been a very good operation over the course of a several decades, but it is coming to an end, so we refocusing our operations and refocusing our ability to produce the products that we produce out of four mines instead of five. That is the main thing. The next big thing is that based on my background as an operator in the steel mill side and I was in the service center side, and tied together with 30 doors extremely deep expense doing more or less the same thing that I have been doing through my entire career, we are working very seriously in expanding maintenance cycles and optimizing the utilization of equipment and changing the practice on the supply chain of spare parts, we are cutting costs in serious things and it goes without saying that we are applying to the salary to workforce at the mine sites, this same logic that we are applying here at the headquarters in Cleveland. If you are not really doing something that will bring EBITDA to the company, chances are that your position is relevant, so we continue to cut people at the top of the organization in our operations, so our cost targets are achievable, are challenging but very much achievable and I have every single person involved in the effort completely committed to get it done and they know why they are doing that. On top of that, we have the energy rates that we continue to work very seriously to bring those costs down. We just finished recently to renegotiate our entire energy electricity situation initiative with extremely helpful work together with the office of the Michigan governor, and I believe we have got an excellent long-term deal, we are back to buying electricity from the Presque Isle with Wisconsin Energy utility supply in the Upper Peninsula. We also in the mean time, we resolved the problem of the electricity rates in the entire Upper Peninsula even for the households over there, so creating a lot of goodwill within the community and again with invaluable support from governor Snyder, so we are working on all fronts to cut this cost and we will continue to accomplish all of our goals.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Great. Then second question I had was just on the volume outlook. How should we think about the optionality now on the outlook of some of your clients, AK Steel, particularly with the problems of Magnetation. Is this something that you are already in discussions with them about possibly supplying volumes that they would have otherwise taken in-house, could you comment about that, and if you have the optionality to meet that demand?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, we have so few clients here at Cliffs, at this point that we are always talking to the clients. We have only four. I do not know how much you followed me at Metals, you will say I do not remember any more. I think you did, but you had thousands of clients already. I still used to talk to clients, so here we have only four. I talk with clients all the time, so we talk about a lot of things, so yes. We are talking, but does not mean a thing, because it takes two to dance and there's a lot of recent history between AK and Cliffs and we believe that the right things will always happen at the right time, so we are not that an guy [ph], I tend to plan ahead, I tend to execute in a very disciplined way. I always had my own thoughts about Magnetation. I always understood why AK initiated the Magnetation investment and I can't say that was surprised with the outcome. This being said, if AK will buy these labs, if AK will buy pallets from Timbuktu [ph] Corporation, I have no idea. It is AK's decision. If they come to Cliffs, they know what they will get and they even know how much they will pay, and they even know how good the quality of our product is, how superior our product is compares not only with their in-house supplier, but with any pallet supplier in the world.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst · Nathan Littlewood from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Evan Kurtz from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Evan Kurtz

Analyst · Evan Kurtz from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Hey, good morning, guys.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Good morning.

Evan Kurtz

Analyst · Evan Kurtz from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

I just had a question, if you kind of look at a few years from now, it seems like Cliffs will be the U.S.-only business. It would be involved in one commodity and is much more simpler than the business that you have today and if you got SG&A of about 120 this year. Where do you think you could go if we kind of look at a few years? What do you think that are sustainable long-term SG&A cost will be for a USIO-only company?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Yes. They were 120 still has the influence of people and work that is done related to both, APIO that if you are probably to stay for the next three-and-a-half, four years and also North American coal, so we can further reduce these numbers going forward. How much? I do not know at this point, Evan. I do not have the number here from the top of my head. At the right time, we will inform. At the right time, you will be able to plug in your model and maybe at that time my numbers will look a little better, because you are the guy that has a low price stock price estimate, but you always have the higher estimate in terms of our profitability, so you challenge me a lot, but I got a modest beat, right? You said that I got a modest beat, modest beat in Q1 is a very good thing in our model like yours that is designed for me to lose, so as much as I permit to beat. I still beat, so that was not a bad thing.

Evan Kurtz

Analyst · Evan Kurtz from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Okay. We believe it or not I am actually waiting for you Lourenco, so hopefully you continue to do so. A similar question actually on the CapEx side, you have cut pretty significantly here. How sustainable is that if you go out three years again? Is there are some CapEx that has to come back into the equation to keep those four mines running optimally or some of the other businesses falloff. How do we think about where that number moves to?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, if we materialize and I fully believe that we will do materialize our production of DRI in Minnesota. If we do that, of course at DRI, a new DRI facility in Minnesota is not baked into our CapEx numbers. On the other hand, there is more investments that we need to deploy in order to give Northshore the capability to produces DR pallets are not only baked into their number, but they are also being authorized. They are in the process of being deployed, so it is a mix. At this point, we have our CapEx number that is limited to the footprint that we have and the short-term plan that we have ahead of us. Of course, as we go bigger into the side [ph] of the business, but I am fully confident that we are going to revise this CapEx numbers up, and all of these numbers will be calculated based on return on assets, return on an investment capital in the right metrics, will not be decision taken based on how our stocks price is doing. Actually, because if I used the stock price as a reference, I will be in trouble, I cannot buy lunch. I have to sell lunch to buy dinner, but I used the real metrics, we have got to really use the are real returns and the ones that pay off over time, there was that pay off to real investors and that is the way we do business here.

Evan Kurtz

Analyst · Evan Kurtz from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Great. Thanks a lot, Lourenco.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Yes, hey, good morning.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Good morning, Timna.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Gosh, every single question I was going to ask has been addressed and with great answer really thorough details, so I thought that I could just - the only thing I thought might be helpful is really to hear a little bit more on the really nice costs saving in USIO and just making sure we are confident or give them as much details as possible on the sustainability. If we do forecast longer-term price recovering, should we assume that this costs structure is permanent or there are variables that would have to go up over time? Thanks.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

All right, Timna, let me introduce you to a person that you do not know yet. That is Mr. Kelly Tompkins, my second in command. My most valuable player here at the company and I am extremely happy that I finally have my management team all placed with the players in the right spot, so Kelly, please? Timna Tanners is a research analyst from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Nice to meet you. Okay.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Likewise, but I think we have met on one of my other capacities, Timna.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Okay.

Kelly Tompkins

Chief Financial Officer

I think, Lourenco talks on some of these earlier. He talked about the maintenance practices that we are implementing and now there has been some question we are just simply deferring maintenance, no, we are improving our maintenance practices, so it is sustainable. We are continuing to rationalize solid workforce, for example, irrespective of what we might do to idle and taking out rank and file we have been equally disciplined with the management team. Lourenco talked about the aggressive work we have done on the energy side, so there is a constant pursuit of our operational improvements productivity initiatives and when we reaffirmed our cost guidance for USIO that was not Lourenco and I sitting in a room making that made up ourselves. This is the operating guys and completed buy end from the top-down to the bottom of the organization, so we feel very confident. As we mentioned before, we have got a very experienced team that knows exactly how to stay out there, so we are very confident. These are sustainable.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Okay. That is helpful. Then Lourenco I know when I saw you last time, you had just come from the conference in Australia and you are saying that the Australian seem to have a different view than the Chinese about steel production and they were targeting a higher number, but maybe your tone has changed a little bit and you sound a little bit more confident at least that maybe there is change in your view point are going to produce little less. Can you give us a little bit more color around your change in thinking?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Sure. I will be glad. In order to deploy massive amounts, billions of dollars of CapEx, you need two things. One is, return on invested capital. Two, our market to sell the products. If you have the return on invested capital, you have a chance. If you have a market for your product, then you will put one plus one together to get a two it will grow. In the case of the deployment of CapEx from Australia, it is a lot more of a lid [ph] services and empty threats and bad advertisement and they scare the shit out of everybody than anything else. Think about the port bottlenecking of BHP. They said that they could optimize without the bottlenecking without deploying the money, they said whatever they like to say, but at the end of the day they did only have up $600 million of investment just to go from $270 million for $290 million in 2017, so money talks and others stuff walks, so there is a lot of false story going on over there trying to take big one out of the picture, because he was not part of the original party. Remember through 2009, iron ore prices were negotiate with the Japanese and then with the Chinese and also with the Europeans. Based on the benchmark negotiations and the benchmark negotiations used to be more or less like a Vale speaking on behalf of the three with, Europeans and Rio Tinto is speaking on behalf of the three with the Japanese and then the Chinese became bigger and the Chinese said I am not going to fall to Japanese, I am I am going to do my own thing and then Vale Steel negotiated on behalf of the Chinese and then Stern Hu went to…

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Okay.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

No. I am okay yet. I am not done yet.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Thank you.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

My thesis is that they are strengthening capital expansion that they are not planning to deploy, because I cannot believe. I do believe in stupidity, but I do not believe in stupidity for a long period of time. Example, Cliffs Natural Resources, here in this company they buried close to $9 billion in debt investments and I am sure that during that time that the previous board was deploying billions and billions of dollars of capital here using as they the only metric the share prices, they were extremely happy and they were tapping each other on the back and telling each other how great they were until the outcome was a disaster, so I do not think that BHP and Rio Tinto or Vale will do the same thing. I believe that common sense will come back and we are going to start looking at the size of that things really have, so and the size that things really have is Rio Tinto is the bigger supplier of Australia with 200-something million tons and that is pretty it and Vale is the biggest one among all with close to 300 million tons and BHP is a 200 million tons supplier and Fortescue is 125 million tons and Roy Hill may come, may not, maybe be 55, they will come, but maybe 55 or 54 or 25 or and property [ph] will continuing to collect a lot of rights from Rio Tinto, that is good. They will naturally go to the direction, because IODEX is an index that can be moved by three companies Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto. If they do not move, the IODEX is because they do not want, but if these three companies do not want to move the IODEX, they are basically taking money away from their shareholders and their board members need to know that. Did I answer your question?

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Yes. I think so, I just was wondering incrementally it sounds like if things remain difficult you are more convinced that rational behavior given at some rationalized market will prevail. Is that what you are saying?

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

I am convinced that as soon as the board members of the Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale realize that they are enabling their management teams to do something that goes against their shareholders at least one or two or three or five, we will get scared, because their fiduciary doing is associated to that. That is what I believe. I also believe that ACCC, the antitrust authority is fair competition authority in Australia should be taking a serious look about their behavior already instead of looking about what Mr. A, or Mr. B, or Mr. C said on this or that circumstances, because what people say is not as important as what people do. I believe that what they are doing is on purpose and I believe that what they are doing is not right and I believe that they are generating a lot of unemployment in Australia and that should have serious consequence for the years to come.

Timna Tanners

Analyst · Timna Tanners of Bank of America. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you for sharing that. That is interesting.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Good. One more question then we are done Shannon.

Operator

Operator

Your final question then comes from the line of Gordon Johnson from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Gordon Johnson

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is now open

Lourenco, congratulations on the execution, thus far impressive execution.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thanks.

Gordon Johnson

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is now open

I guess the first question is on the rationality of the large iron ore producers. I remember back in 2012, when kind of some of these plans were announced we had heard a lot that a lot of the plans are going to be delayed and indeed these guys executed on the ramp plans. I guess just given where their cash costs and manufacturing costs are, at least that they are reporting, can you comment on how long you think it will take them to be more rational? Could it be a year? Could it be two years or do you think it will happen sooner? Then secondly, could you comment on your operating cash flow this quarter? It looks like it was the lowest it has ever been. Is that something that we should expect as a one-time kind of dynamic, was there something maybe that happened this quarter that caused it to be so low versus where your net income was? Thank you.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Everything is related to the cash flow is related to seasonality, Gordon. You have not been in this business long enough and there is lot of things that you do not know. I am looking forward to our deal tomorrow here in Cleveland, when then I really plan to spend time explaining you that Cliffs is not a high cost producer. We are actually a producer of value added products called pallets, pallets go into blast furnaces and not sinter feed slides that go into sinter plant, but we will talk about that tomorrow. About the cash flow thing, is all about the seasonality and the Q1 is completely different from Q2 and Q3 and Q4 and even Q2 and Q3 and Q4 are not exactly the same, but there is a lot of seasonality associated to our business. As far as rational behavior, I do not believe in rational behavior. I really believe in board members when they really it kind of a come to Jesus thing, you know, a moment of truth, when the board member say oh my god what have I been doing, because it has happened here at Cliffs, so it has happened here at Cliffs, but then the guys were so committed with their bad strategy they did not know how to get out of their hole, so I was the guy that helped them out at the end of the day and they went out a lot better than for example their former present CEO of Rio Tinto that was after January of 2013 that left with no [ph] after a write-off of $14 billion, so things in this business, Gordon, they are not exactly the way they look like. Of course they are big, of course, they have a lot of capacity,…

Gordon Johnson

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is now open

That does answer my question. That is very helpful. I guess, one more question if I could, and it goes to the rationality question somewhat. In Q1 if you look at the big four producers, Rio, Vale, BHP, SMG [ph], their overall production of iron ore was down I think more than a lot of people expected, I think it was down roughly 30 million metric tons, yet iron ore prices fell Q4 to Q1 roughly 12% on average. I think for the first time since, I think, 1990s in Q1 demand actually for iron ore in China was down, so could it possibly be if demand in China is down this year, which would mark the first time since the 80s that maybe demand is also having an effect on iron ore prices? Thanks again for the questions.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Look, Gordon that is actually my point. You nailed on this one, because demand is down. If demand is down, there is no point in announcing expansions even if you are doing. If you believe that with your expansions you are going to displace in the future, you are going displace while you call the higher costs producers when you compare bananas-with-banana of course you are not compared with the Cliffs USIO. We produce pallets here, we will address that tomorrow at dinner, but when you are talking about producers of sinter feed fines, displacing producers of sinter feed fine, and that is exactly what happens, so you are completely right. Demand is going down, so that is the wrong moment to be trying to create or trying to announces more capacity, because that would have a dilatory effect. On the other hand, it is very minimal announcement that or we are not doing. We are not deploying this cash flow, we are not doing this thing that was what happen when the BHP in a very sympathetically told everyone that they are not willing for deploy $600 million in CapEx, because that was not the right decision to make, so the only fact that the simple fact that they announced that and iron ore price went up despite of the Chinese demand that is going down, despite of everything that you said, so it is all about perception. It is not about reality, it is not about what Vale or Rio Tinto or BHP or Fortescue are producing now. The market is okay for what they are producing now. What the markets is not okay is for this things, you know what, and I am going to double this. I am going produce a lot more ore, but China…

Gordon Johnson

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is now open

Very helpful. Thank you.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you, Gordon.

Lourenco Goncalves

Chairman

Thank you very much for joining the call and to stay with me for so long. Kelly and I are looking forward to continue our conversation within each of you and we will speak again in three months. Thanks a lot. Bye now.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.