Andrew Littlefair
Analyst · Craig-Hallum
Eric, I want to be careful to air all the dirty laundry of my friends on truck pricing but I think I've said it before which is that as those early trucks, the X15N were launched into the market latter part of last year, we just -- it's no secret. The incremental price was just a bit too high. And by the time you move that from the engine cost and the -- and I think, frankly, in-line fuel system costs. And then you put the OEM mark-up on it and the dealer mark-up on it, I think people got a tad bit carried away. At one point, a very powerful dealer said, well, it's still half the price of the incremental cost of an electric truck. And I said, wait a minute, we don't compete with an electric truck. We compete with a diesel truck. So we work very hard with Cummins. We have a program with Cummins that was joined in by the fuel system folks. And frankly and with our friends at PACCAR to reduce that from as much as $110,000 incremental price to something that's on the way toward $80,000 incremental price or so. What we found, Eric, that an incremental price at around $75,000 to $80,000 with an aggressive but doable fuel price, certainly for us with our network and our ability to supply RNG, you can get the total cost of ownership for the fleet where it needs to be. That is, you can get a fleet somewhere around the 2- to 2.5-year payback. And that's enough to start the discussion of get them to then put in for ordering. Now there's some good news here. The Freightliner, as you mentioned, a product that's come to market, they have a little bit lower price point overall and I think competition is a good thing. So we have seen some initial orders go in for the Freightliner. That price is lower. So I think we're on our way toward where we want to be. I think over time, it's clear that if we can get to something closer to 6,000 units a year, you can drive somewhere between 15% to 20% out of the fuel system cost, too. So we're at early stages. Incremental has been a little high at the initial launch. It is coming down. And so I feel like it's headed in the right direction to get to where we need to be.