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Commercial Metals Company (CMC)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 12, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

[Call Starts Abruptly] Today's materials, including the press release and supplemental slides that accompany this call, can be found on CMC's Investor Relations website. Today's call is being recorded. After the Company's remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session and will have a few instructions at that time. I would like to remind all participants that during the course of this conference call, the Company will make statements that provide information other than historical information and will include expectations regarding economic conditions, effects of legislation, U.S. steel import levels, construction activity, demand for finished steel products, the expected capabilities, benefits and timeline for construction of new facilities, the Company's future operations, the timeline for execution of the Company's growth plan; the Company's future results of operations, financial measures and capital spending. These and other similar statements are considered forward-looking and may involve certain assumptions and speculation and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations. These statements reflect the Company's beliefs based on current conditions, but are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including those that are described in the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements section of the Company's latest filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's latest annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Although these statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, CMC offers no assurance that these expectations or beliefs will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially. All statements are made only as of this date. Except as required by law, CMC does not assume any obligation to update, amend or clarify these statements in connection with future events, changes in assumptions, the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events, new information or circumstances or otherwise. Some numbers presented will be non-GAAP financial measures, and reconciliations for such numbers can be found in the Company's earnings release, supplemental slide presentation or on the Company's website. Unless stated otherwise, all references made to year or quarter-end are references to the Company's fiscal year or fiscal quarter. And now for opening remarks and introductions, I will turn the call over to the Executive Chairman of the Board of CMC, Ms. Barbara Smith.

Barbara Smith

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending CMC's fourth quarter earnings conference call. As we reported in our press release this morning, it was another period of historically strong financial results. I would like to thank CMC's 13,000 employees who made these results possible. Your hard work and focused efforts are driving our success. I'm joined this morning's call by CMC's President and Chief Executive Officer, Peter Matt; and our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Paul Lawrence. We will start today's discussion with comments on CMC's fiscal 2023 results and accomplishments during the year. Peter will then discuss fourth quarter performance, provide commentary on current market conditions, and offer an update on CMC's strategic growth projects. Paul will cover the fourth quarter's financial information in more detail and Peter will conclude with our outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, after which we will open the call to questions. Fiscal 2023 was an another exceptional year for CMC, one that included record employee safety performance, historically strong financial results and solid progress on our announced growth initiatives, including several strategic bolt-on acquisitions. As you know, the company and its Board of Directors began implementing a CEO succession plan this year. I announced my retirement as CEO in July and our Board unanimously voted to appoint Peter Matt as CMC's new Chief Executive, effective September 1st. My fellow directors and I are extremely confident in Peter's ability to lead CMC through this next chapter, and I look forward to continuing to support the company as Executive Chairman of the Board. Turning now to our financial results. CMC generated core EBITDA of $1.46 billion in fiscal 2023, down only modestly from the record of $1.55 billion set in fiscal 2022. Without proper context, it's easy to lose…

Peter Matt

Management

Thank you, Barbara. It's an honor to take the helm of a company so masterfully led for much of the last decade, and good morning to everyone on the call. CMC's fourth quarter financial results were among the strongest in our company's history, though down slightly from recent record levels. CMC generated net earnings of $184.2 million or $1.56 per diluted share on net sales of $2.2 billion. Including the impact of non-operational items, which Paul will cover in detail, adjusted earnings were $200 million or $1.69 per diluted share. CMC generated consolidated core EBITDA for the quarter of $340 million, producing an annualized return on invested capital of 15.2%. Once again, our North American segment demonstrated remarkable resilience, posting its 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, excluding the gain on the sale of land recognized during the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Even more impressive, excluding the land sale, our North American segment has increased EBITDA on a year-over-year basis in 21 of the last 22 quarters. Turning now to CMC's markets in North America. Rebar shipments remained healthy during the fourth quarter, and total finished steel volumes increased on a year-over-year basis. Activity levels across our geographies and into our various customer groups were consistent with the prior quarter. Overall, the seasonal volume pattern was very normal. The data we track indicates that annualized rebar consumption remained between 9 million tons and 9.5 million tons during the third and fourth quarters. This level is consistent with the rate that has prevailed since early calendar 2021, which is a 5% to 10% increase compared to the pre-pandemic average. Strong pricing and demand conditions for domestic rebar have started to diverge from the weaker global environment and growth within the U.S. construction sector similarly stands in contrast to…

Paul Lawrence

Management

Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone on the call. As noted earlier, we reported fiscal fourth quarter 2023 net earnings of $184.2 million or $1.56 per diluted share compared to prior year levels of $288.6 million and $2.40, respectively. Results this quarter include net after-tax charges of $15.7 million, related to the ongoing commissioning efforts of Arizona 2 and the impairment of a downstream asset. Excluding these items, adjusted earnings were $199.9 million or $1.69 per diluted share in comparison to adjusted earnings of $294.9 million or $2.45 per diluted share during the prior year period. Core EBITDA was $340 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a decline from the $419 million generated during the prior year period, but still among the five most profitable quarters in CMC history. Slide 13 of the supplemental presentation illustrates the year-to-year changes in CMC's quarterly results. Our North America segment achieved earnings growth, while Europe experienced a significant reduction from the strong results posted in the prior year quarter. Consolidated core EBITDA per ton of finished steel was $221, which remained well above historical levels and compared to $269 per ton a year ago. CMC's North American segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $375.3 million for the quarter, equal to $327 per ton of finished steel shipped. Segment adjusted EBITDA improved 1% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was primarily the result of an expansion in the margin of average downstream selling price over scrap costs as well as lower controllable costs per ton. Improvement in controllable costs occurred despite additional expenses related to the start-up of Arizona 2 and a major planned upgrade outage at one of our merchant rebar mills. Turning to Slide 15 of the supplemental deck. Our Europe segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25.7…

Peter Matt

Management

Thank you, Paul. We expect first quarter financial performance to remain strong by historical standards, but declined from the fourth quarter as a result of seasonally slower shipments, steel product margin compression in North America and the continuation of challenging market conditions in Europe. During the first quarter, we anticipate that our Europe operations will receive approximately $60 million from two large government rebate programs. The first is an annual CO2 credit estimated at $25 million, up from $9.5 million received last year. The second is structured as a reimbursement by the Polish government for elevated energy costs incurred during the European energy crisis. Proceeds from this program are expected to be $35 million and are calculated based on the magnitude of energy cost inflation in calendar year 2023 relative to the 2021 baseline. These rebates are expected to drive a sequential improvement in Europe segment adjusted EBITDA. Looking at the longer term, we remain very confident regarding the outlook for CMC in the markets we serve. The United States is in the early stages of massive investment trends that are intended to remake large portions of our economy by extensively upgrading infrastructure realigning global trade patterns and reorienting automotive production to electric vehicles and transitioning the electricity grid to greener sources of energy. Construction makes all this possible, and we have positioned CMC to be both a primary beneficiary of the expected growth and a key solution provider to our customers. Once again, I would like to thank our customers for their trust and confidence in CMC and to thank all of the CMC employees for delivering yet another quarter of solid performance. And with that, we'll take questions, operator.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, we'll now open the call to questions. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP. Please go ahead.

Tristan Gresser

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the Q1 guidance. I wanted to ask you a little bit more about the moving pieces there. If I look at spot rebar metal spread in the U.S., they have fallen about by $100 in Q3. Is that the level of metal spread compression you expect to be reflected in Q1? Or is it something closer to $50 a ton maybe – also in terms of timing, given the short lag for rebar, is it fair to assume that most of the weakness we've seen in rebar metal spread will flow into that Q1? Thank you. That's my first question.

Paul Lawrence

Management

Yes. I think just in terms of the metal spread compression, the number that you're citing is seems high to us. And in terms of timing, what we expect is that you will see the impact flow into Q1 as you indicated.

Tristan Gresser

Analyst

All right. That's really helpful. So I guess my follow-up is having a little bit of hard time getting to a lower EBITDA quarter-on-quarter, if I get metal spread compression there, some more stability on the fab business and a $60 million uplift then on Europe, I guess something close to something basically stable quarter-on-quarter. So I'm just going to ask what kind of volume decline do you expect in North America, Europe in Q1? And also without the $60 million uplift in Europe, would you have seen underlying margins decrease further?

Paul Lawrence

Management

So in terms of the volume decline in North America, we expect there to be kind of normal seasonality. So we're talking about up to a 10% change. And I think what you should assume in Poland is that absent this – these rebates, Q1 looks a lot like Q4. So we're not calling for a meaningful recovery in Poland in Q1.

Tristan Gresser

Analyst

Okay. That's really helpful. And maybe the last one, and I know it's a little bit of a tricky one, but on the timing on the infrastructure plan, I mean the rebar demand chart you showed in your presentation looks flat year-to-date. Is that fair to imply that we have yet to see most of this kind of infra boost. And if you were to put a number, and I know it's difficult, how much of this 1.5 million ton demand uplift do you believe is already out there being reflected in rebar prices? Is that 50%, 20% or even lower? And lastly, I think on your opening remarks, I think it feels to me that basically saying the quarter to watch for any meaningful uptick there is potentially calendar Q2. Is that fair?

Paul Lawrence

Management

Yes. So okay, a lot of questions there, but we'll try to cycle through them. So first, in terms of the amount of infrastructure spend that we're seeing, so far, it's been very limited. What we can see is that it's working through the design and the predesign phases of the process, but we don't believe that we've seen much of the spend yet. And to your second question on rebar pricing, we do not believe that the kind of infrastructure spend bubble is baked into the current rebar prices, right? So once that demand starts to materialize, we expect we'll see more of that. And if you talk about when the inflection is going to occur, again, it's hard for us to give too precise a number, but – or too precise a date. But I guess what we do is if we think about North America, again, we do see the kind of bidding activity very high. We do see some short-term constraints in terms of kind of getting projects built out just given some of the labor constraints. But we expect this is coming and we expect it's coming in 2024. And so that should give some help to 2024. The other thing that I would say we're seeing is two factors, that I think are important here. One is we've seen scrap stabilize. And usually, that's a harbinger for kind of better pricing on the rebar side. And the other thing that I would say is that imports have remained at relatively manageable levels relative to kind of where they've been historically. And we believe that's because of the kind of the economics of bringing steel to the U.S. are not as compelling. And that's why we're not seeing the – despite the fact that it's better than other markets, it's not so much better that people are going to bring higher levels of imports. So that also should be a positive for ultimately pricing. In Poland, if I can just comment on Poland a bit. So what we see in Poland is pricing has stabilized. We've seen a lot of capacity taken out of the market. There's an election on October 15, so just a couple of days from now. And we believe that coming out of that election, there's a very good chance that this $32 billion of recovery and resilience fund that's being held by the EU will come into the market. And so that's another potential positive for us in Poland. The government's program to buy down interest rates on first-time buyer mortgages has been very well received. So that's potentially another green shoot. So there are some reasons for optimism in Poland, but it's hard to call the inflection point just given what we've seen.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Yes. Hey, good morning, everyone.

Paul Lawrence

Management

Hi, Timna.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Hello. I wanted to dig down a little bit on Arizona 2. So just a little bit tough to reconcile for me the guidance of lower sequential volumes in November. And then in February, it's seasonally a little lighter even – but yet, Arizona is supposed to be ramping up. So is it displacing other tons? Or are there net additional tons to the tune of that 400,000, I think, that you guided to for fiscal year production? And then along those same lines, if I could. Can you clarify, I think, you had said in the past – it’s a little earlier time frame for breakeven, maybe Q1 and now you're saying first half. So if you could just provide some color on that as well.

Paul Lawrence

Management

I'll start with the EBITDA breakeven, Timna. In terms of our change in the guidance is simply reflecting the margin erosion that we've seen – the production startup started in June and has continued to improve each quarter. But simply the margin erosion that has occurred, and we anticipate to occur in our first quarter, we expect that the breakeven point will take place in some time during the second quarter.

Peter Matt

Management

And in terms of the tonnages, Timna, so we are – it is the case that we have been supplying kind of tons to some of our customers in the West from some of our other mills. But as we bring up the Arizona plant, we will be not only replacing those tons but we will be producing some incremental tons.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. But if you were on our shoes, you wouldn't necessarily plug in an additional 400,000 tons? Or do you think the market can bear that, I guess, is the challenge?

Peter Matt

Management

Yes. No, it's not an additional 400,000 tons. It's a little bit less than that.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then if I could, just one more. On that CapEx color, Well, one is that you raised the CapEx guidance $50 million, sorry if I missed any explanation for that for 2024. And then I know it's a little further out, but we see some pretty strong cash flows in 2025, if we reverse to kind of your more baseline CapEx or maintenance CapEx. I'm just wondering if there's more on the come after that, that we should be modeling as well? Thanks.

Paul Lawrence

Management

Timna, I think Steel West Virginia is likely to continue to have spend in 2025. So our overall 2025 will likely continue to be an elevated CapEx as we invest in that organic growth. I will remind you though that over the last three years, despite the release of working capital that we saw in the fourth quarter of around $125 million we've still invested over $700 million in working capital. So we do anticipate that our cash flow will be very strong as we look forward, certainly, if there is any continued softness on the pricing front.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. And then so the $50 million, sorry, the additional CapEx guidance that you had for 2024, if you could just let us know what that was about?

Paul Lawrence

Management

Yes. That's just simply as we get more evolved into the timing of our planning process for the year and look at projects that can drive value to the organization. We're now complete our planning process, whereas before it was more of an estimate based on where we were.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Paul Lawrence

Management

Thank you, Timna.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Alex Hacking of Citi. Please go ahead.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. Good morning everyone. Let me…

Paul Lawrence

Management

Hey, Alex.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

[Indiscernible] time to Barbara for a tenured CEO, truly transformational. Not many people can say that. In terms of questions, I guess the first question, just following up on the infrastructure bill. I think you highlighted there the big ramp-up in design phase activity. How should we think about the lag there for steel going into the ground, right? That suggests to me probably we're still maybe two or three years away. But any color there would be helpful? Thanks.

Paul Lawrence

Management

No, I think – I don't think it's that long. I think we see – we believe that by the middle of next calendar year, we should start to feel some of that infrastructure spending coming through.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then I guess a follow-up on merchant bar. Volumes down something like 10% year-over-year. Is that still decelerating in your view? Or has it kind of stabilized? And are there specific end markets within that at a particularly weak? Thanks.

Paul Lawrence

Management

Alex, no, if you'll recall in my comments, I made reference to a major planned outage that we had at one of our merchant mills. So we were within the quarter essentially constrained on production at our Alabama facility that is our flagship in terms of merchant bar. So it's simply our capacity during the quarter. Underlying market conditions continue to be relatively strong in the merchant bar space.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Barbara Smith

Management

Thank you, Alex for your kind remarks.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there appears to be no further questions. Mr. Matt, I'll now turn the call back over to you.

Peter Matt

Management

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. CMC is a great platform to take advantage of the wave of construction, the spending that's coming our way. And there's clearly some short-term headwinds, but these will pass, and we expect materially higher through-the-cycle margins and significant value creation and demonstrating that we can achieve them. CMC is well positioned to capitalize on this performance and to strengthen and grow our business. Thank you very much for joining.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's CMC conference call. You may now disconnect.