Michael J. Angelakis
Analyst · Citi
Thank you, Brian. We are very pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results for 2011, which reflect profitable growth and the fundamental strength of our businesses. Based on our confidence in the ongoing performance of the company and as Brian just mentioned, we are increasing our total return of capital to shareholders in 2012 by 45%. We'll address our financial strategy a bit later, but now let's discuss our business performance for 2011 in more detail. For the full year of 2011, consolidated revenue increased 47.2% to $55.8 billion, and operating cash flow increased 25.8% to $18.4 billion, reflecting strong organic growth in the Cable business as well as consolidating the acquisitions of NBCUniversal on January 28 and the remaining 50% of Universal Orlando on July 1. Free cash flow for the full year, which excludes the impact of the economic stimulus, increased 30.1% to $7 billion, primarily reflecting growth in operating cash flow, which includes NBCUniversal, and partially offset by increases in working capital, higher cash-paid interest, capital expenditures and intangible asset expenditures. Free cash flow per share increased 31.9% to $2.52 per share in 2011. For the year, our Cable free cash flow accounted for $5.2 billion or 75% of the total, while NBCUniversal contributed $1.8 billion or 25% of consolidated free cash flow. Earnings per share for the full year grew 16.3% to $1.50 per share from $1.29 per share in 2010. Excluding NBCUniversal transaction-related costs and other nonrecurring items, our EPS increased 20.6% to $1.58 compared to $1.31 in 2010. Please refer to Slide 5. Let's take a look at the pro forma results of our Cable and NBCUniversal businesses. Pro forma results are presented as if the NBCUniversal and the Universal Orlando transactions were both effective on January 1, 2010. We believe the pro forma presentation provides a more meaningful comparison of the operating performance of the businesses. In addition, we adjust operating cash flow to incorporate the effects of acquisition accounting and eliminate the costs and expenses directly related to the NBCUniversal transaction. In total, during 2011, these adjustments, which are detailed on Table 6 of our press release, impacted NBCUniversal operating cash flow by $340 million. Our purchase accounting adjustments are now complete, so year-over-year comparisons should be a bit easier going forward. In 2011, Cable Communications revenue increased 5.3% to $37.2 billion and represented 65% of our consolidated revenue, while Cable operating cash flow grew 6.9% to $15.3 billion and represented 82% of our consolidated operating cash flow. For the full year, NBCUniversal generated revenue of $21.1 billion, an increase of 3.7%. This growth reflects the inclusion of $782 million of revenue from the Olympics in 2010. So on an apples-to-apples basis, revenue increased 7.8%. Operating cash flow increased 2.3% to $3.8 billion. Again, excluding the Olympics in 2010 and the acquisition-related accounting revisions in cost in 2011, NBCUniversal's operating cash flow increased 5.2%. These results reflect strong performance at the Cable Networks and Theme Parks, which are offset by weaker performance at Broadcast and Film. For the full year, consolidated revenue increased 4.7% to $57.7 billion. Again, excluding the impact of the Olympics in 2010, pro forma consolidated revenue increased 6.2%. Consolidated pro forma operating cash flow increased 6.2% to $18.7 billion, and excluding the Olympics and the acquisition-related accounting revisions in cost that I just described, full year operating cash flow increased 6.8%. Please refer to the next slide, and let's review Cable Communications results in more detail. In 2011, our Cable segment reported strong financial results and customer growth with substantial year-over-year improvements. For the full year of 2011, Cable Communications revenue increased 5.3% to $37.2 billion, reflecting growth in our recurring residential business and continued strength in Business Services, partially offset by lower political advertising. The Cable business has performed well and has had consistent results. Excluding advertising, Cable revenue increased 5.6% for the full year, which is consistent with the growth rate in each of the last 4 quarters. In 2010, we generated $180 million of political ad revenue, making 2011 comparisons a bit challenging. As a result, Cable advertising declined by 1% for the full year and by 9% or $56 million for the fourth quarter. However, excluding the political ad revenue, cable advertising increased 7% for the full year and 5% in the fourth quarter. We are managing the business for sustainable and profitable growth, and our total revenue per Video customer reached $141 per month in the fourth quarter, a 7% increase. That reflects our growing customer base, a higher contribution from Business Services and an increasing number of residential customers taking multiple products. At year end, 71% of our Video customers took at least 2 products, and 37% took all 3 services versus 33% in 2010. We continued to experience real strength in our customer metrics. We ended the year with improved year-over-year customer growth. For the year, we added 1.4 million total Video, High-Speed Internet and Voice customers, an 11% increase in net customer additions compared to 2010. As Brian mentioned, in the fourth quarter, we lost 17,000 Video customers, a significant improvement over the 135,000 Video subscriber losses in last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, we reduced Video losses by nearly 300,000, approximately a 40% improvement over 2010. In addition, we added 1.2 million new High-Speed Internet customers in 2011, a 10% increase over last year's new customer additions. We have improved products, we are competing better, and our focus on retention and customer service has resulted in lower churn year-over-year and each quarter across all of our services. In addition to our strong customer metrics, rate adjustments, and an increasing number of customers taking higher levels of digital and advanced services contributed to a 1.3% increase in video revenue. We added 743,000 high def and/or DVR customers in 2011 and now have 10.9 million high def and/or DVR customers, equal to 53% of our 20.6 million digital customers. High-Speed Internet revenue was the largest contributor to Cable revenue growth in 2011. High-Speed Internet revenue increased 9.8%, reflecting rate adjustments, continued growth in our customer base and an increasing number of customers taking higher-speed services. Today, over 25% of our residential High-Speed Internet customers take a higher-speed tier than our primary service. Our HSI service is clearly capturing more market share as we continue to differentiate our product through service and speed enhancements. With regards to Voice, our Voice revenue increased 6.2% for the full year, reflecting continued growth in our customer base. In 2011, we added 732,000 voice customers, and our penetration is now 18% of our homes passed. Business Services were the second largest contributor to Cable revenue growth in 2011, with revenue increasing 41.4% to $1.8 billion. Virtually all of our growth is from the small end of the market or businesses with less than 20 employees, and we continue to experience strong momentum. In addition, we now have Metro E and PRI trunked voice available in all of our markets. In total, Business Services represents a $20 billion to $30 billion opportunity in our markets, and our penetration is only 10%. So we are enthusiastic about the growth opportunities in this segment. Please refer to Slide 7. In addition to revenue growth, we remain very focused on expense management in driving greater efficiencies and effectiveness through the organization. As a result, full year Cable Communications operating cash flow increased 6.9% to $15.3 billion, resulting in a margin of 41.1%, a 70 basis point improvement compared to 2010. We had several positives contributed to our margin improvement. First is our improving product mix. We are adding more High-Speed Internet, Voice and Business Services customers, and an increasing number of our residential customers subscribed to multiple products and upgrade to higher tiers of service, such as HD DVRs or faster Internet speeds. These products are clearly accretive to our margins. Second, we've had improved efficiencies in our operations as we then focus on improving service, reducing churn and increasing customer satisfaction. As a result, customer service and technical operation expenses were relatively flat during the year. In addition, bad debt expense improved as we continued to improve our retention, collection and screening processes. Partially offsetting these positives are 3 pressures, 2 of which we control and have positive ROIs. We are making important investments in new products to expand business services and to offer new products like XFINITY Home and Signature Support. In addition, in 2011, sales and marketing expenses increased 11.8% for the full year as a result of higher overall media spend and a continued investment in direct sales to more effectively target customers and enhance our competitive position. These increased marketing efforts have had a positive impact on our customer metrics. Our XFINITY brand is now launched in 100% of our footprint and represents a more technology- and customer-focused brand that is making a positive impact on both our customers and those considering our services for purchase. Finally, programming expense remains a challenge. In 2011, programming expenses increased 5.8% as we continue to increase the amount of content we provide consumers across multiple platforms. As we have mentioned previously, we expect programming expenses to grow at the mid- to high-single-digit rates, and in 2012, we expect programming expenses to grow at the higher end of that range. Please refer to Slide 8 so we can review our Cable Communications capital expenditures. As indicated on the slide, we continue to reduce the capital intensity of our Cable business. For 2011, total Cable capital expenditures decreased 1% to $4.8 billion, equal to 12.9% of revenue versus 13.7% in 2010. This reduction reflects scale efficiencies, including improved equipment pricing, partially offset by continued investments in network infrastructure and the expansion of Business Services. Our full year CPE expenditures declined even as we deployed 2.4 million advanced HD and/or DVR set-tops and deployed 6.4 million digital adapters. In total, we have deployed over 23 million digital adapters since the inception of the All-Digital project, which is now complete. All-Digital has been a terrific initiative that has provided significant operational benefits and product enhancements as well as generating strong financial returns. Over the past year, we have begun to recapture the remaining analog bandwidth in a number of our markets, and we plan to continue this effort as we anticipate additional operating efficiencies and strategic benefits from fully digitizing our systems. Full year 2011 CapEx also reflects meaningful investments to support the continued growth in Business Services and to expand our efforts in the midsized business area. Our investment in Business Services increased 22% to $607 million in 2011. We've also increased our investment in network infrastructure to enable product enhancements, including increasing Internet speeds to our customers to reinforce our product leadership and High-Speed Internet. We successfully raised speeds on our flagship product from 12 to 15 megabits and raised speeds on our Blast! product from 20 to 25 megabits. In addition, we introduced our 50-megabit service and our extreme 105-megabit service to virtually all of our markets. With regards to 2012, we anticipate our capital intensity to moderate further as Cable capital expenditures are expected to be lower as a percentage of Cable revenue when compared to 2011, even as we continue to invest capital in our network and fund the expansion of new service offerings like XFINITY Home, Wi-Fi and Xcalibur. These projects provide attractive returns, expand our service and product offerings and drive future organic growth. Please refer to Slide 9 so we can take a closer look at the pro forma results of NBCUniversal segments. For the full year, Cable Networks generated revenue of $8.5 billion, an increase of 10.6%, driven by a 10.9% increase in distribution revenue, an 8.7% increase in advertising revenue and an 18.7% increase in other revenue, primarily due to increases in the licensing of content from the Cable production studio. Cable Networks' adjusted operating cash flow increased 9.8% as we reinvested some of the top line growth in original programming and incurred higher marketing expenses to support launches of new series and other new programming across a number of our Cable Networks. With regards to our Broadcast segment, full year Broadcast Television revenue decreased 7.1% to $6.4 billion, reflecting the inclusion of $782 million of revenue from the Olympics in 2010's results. Excluding the impact of the Olympics, Broadcast revenue increased 4.8%. Advertising revenue, excluding the impact of the Olympics, increased 1% in 2011, primarily reflecting ratings pressure at the NBC Broadcast network and lower political advertising at NBC-owned local stations. Content licensing revenue increased 23.3%, primarily the result of a licensing agreement for prior season and library content in the second and fourth quarters. Full year 2011 Broadcast adjusted operating cash flow, which excludes the Olympics in 2010 as well as acquisition-related accounting revisions in '11, decreased to $231 million, reflecting lower ratings, increased programming and marketing costs associated with NBC primetime schedule and higher news coverage. As we look at advertising revenue at Cable Networks and Broadcast, both had unusual items that impacted advertising growth in the fourth quarter, including 4 fewer days in our advertising calendar, fewer NBA games due to the lockout and lower political advertising revenue at the NBC-owned local stations. If we adjust advertising growth to exclude these items in the fourth quarter, Cable Networks advertising revenue increased 7% versus the reported 2% growth, and Broadcast advertising revenue was flat versus a reported decrease of 6.5%. Moving on to Filmed Entertainment. 2011 revenue was flat at $4.6 billion, reflecting higher theatrical revenue from the strong box-office performance of Fast Five and Bridesmaids as well as higher content licensing revenue offset by lower home entertainment revenue and a decrease in other revenue due to fewer stage plays. Film adjusted operating cash flow declined $220 million to $10 million in 2011, reflecting the underperformance of the 2011 film slate, higher marketing costs and a tough comparison to the 2010 performance of Despicable Me. Switching to our Theme Parks, this segment had a terrific year. Theme Parks generated revenue of $2 billion in 2011, a 24.3% increase that was driven by strong attendance in per capita spending at both parks, which are benefiting from the success of The Wizarding World of Harry Potter attraction in Orlando and the King Kong attraction in Hollywood. Full year adjusted operating cash flow increased 41.2% to $835 million. We are pleased that the integration and transition of 2011 is behind us at NBCUniversal and look forward to 2012, which will be more execution-focused. Please refer to Slide 10 to review our consolidated financial strategy. We believe that operational excellence and strategic differentiation drive shareholder value, so we have an operating strategy that is execution-focused and a financial strategy that is returns-focused and supports the strategy by reinvesting in our business while maintaining a strong balance sheet and providing a consistent and sustainable return of capital to shareholders. Our strong free cash flow generation means we can balance and achieve our growth in capital allocation priorities. It's not an either/or choice. So let me once again quickly review our priorities. Our first priority is to generate strong returns by reinvesting in our businesses. In both Cable and NBCUniversal, we are reinvesting to strengthen our competitive positions and to support attractive internal growth opportunities. In regards to acquisitions and investments, we have a very disciplined approach, focused on opportunities that generate strong risk-adjusted returns and combined with strategic importance that generate long-term value. We view our strong balance sheet as a strategic asset and are committed to remaining a strong investment-grade issuer. At the end of 2011, we had $39.3 billion of debt on our consolidated balance sheet and had gross debt to operating cash flow leverage of 2.1x. We are comfortable with a gross debt to operating cash flow leverage target of 2 to 2.5x and expect to remain at the low end of that range, which we believe provides appropriate financial flexibility and liquidity to execute our operating and strategic plans. We also have a strong commitment to deliver consistent and sustainable return of capital to shareholders within a disciplined capital structure and through a combination of dividends and buybacks, which we think enhances shareholder returns while maintaining adequate liquidity to execute our plans. To achieve that, we currently view Comcast and NBCUniversal as 2 distinct pools of cash flow generation and funding capacity. NBCUniversal retains its free cash flow, which amounted to $1.8 billion in 2011, to build capacity to fund future equity redemptions by GE while Comcast Cable allocates its free cash flow to consistently return capital to shareholders. As we move to the next slide, you can see a consistent and growing return of capital over the last 3 years and for 2012, reflecting today's announcements. Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, we have steadily increased our total return of capital through a combination of increasing dividends and buybacks. We instituted an annual dividend in 2008 at $0.25 per share and have consistently increased it to the current announced level of $0.65 per share. The newly announced dividend represents 43% of our last 12 months of net income and raises our current dividend yield to approximately 2.4%, which is above the S&P 500. In combination with the planned stock repurchases in 2012, our combined yield is approximately 6.5%. As a percentage of free cash flow, our total payout has steadily increased from 35% in 2009 to 63% in 2011. With today's announcement, our total return of capital in 2012 is increasing approximately 45% to $4.8 billion, incorporating a 44% increase in the dividend and a plan to repurchase $3 billion of stock in 2012 under our new repurchase authorization of $6.5 billion. This total return represents a payout of 90% of our last 12 months' Cable free cash flow and approximately 115% of our last 12 months' net income. So as we conclude 2011 and begin 2012, the company is performing well, with a real focus on innovation and execution. In addition, we are pleased with the start in 2012 and hope to build on Cable Communications and NBCUniversal's momentum. We also are very pleased at this momentum, and our financial strength is allowing us to invest for profitable growth and to accelerate our return of capital to shareholders. Now let me turn the call to Marlene for Q&A.