Earnings Labs

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 24, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Comcast’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I would now turn the call over to Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Mr. Jason Armstrong. Please go ahead, Mr. Armstrong.

Jason Armstrong

Management

Thank you, operator and welcome everyone. Joining me on this morning’s call are Brian Roberts, Michael Angelakis, Steve Burke and Neil Smit. Brian and Michael will make formal remarks, and Steve and Neil will also be available for Q&A. As always, let me now refer you to Slide 2, which contains our Safe Harbor disclaimer, and remind you that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties. In addition, in this call we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our 8-K for the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP. With that, let me turn the call to Brian Roberts for his comments. Brian?

Brian Roberts

Management

Thanks Jason and thank you everyone for joining us today. It's an honor to lead this wonderful company and 2014 was no exception. As you'll see we made very strong progress, last year was a great year strategically, operationally and financially. As our history has shown we take prudent risk and invest for profitable growth. Overall we grew revenue 6.4% in 2014 and operating cash flow by 6.9%. We generated over $8 billion in free cash flow and increased cash returned to shareholders by 64% all-in-all a terrific year. As we review these results and outlook with our Board we made the decision to raise our dividend by 11% marking the seventh consecutive annual increase. We've also increased our stock repurchase authorization to $10 billion and we plan to repurchase $4.25 billion of stock in 2015. In addition following the close of the Time Warner Cable merger and related divesture transactions, we intend to add in excess of $5 billion an incremental buybacks to this share repurchase total. It’s an incredible time in media and technology and for Comcast in particular. There is no shortage of change occurring in the competitive landscape, the breakneck pace of innovation and shifts in the regulatory climate we must navigate. That’s why I keep coming back to how proud I am of the team’s focus and execution in 2014. So let's talk about some of their achievements. In Cable we had another strong year of profitable growth we increased revenue 5.5% and operating cash flow 5.3%. We added 358,000 customer relationships a 67% improvement compared to the prior year and product innovation continues at a very rapid pace. We believe we have the absolute best products on the market thanks to our X1 platform, our content line up, Cloud DVR, fastest in-home Wi-Fi, voice…

Michael Angelakis

Management

Thank you Brian and good morning everyone. As you can see form our results 2014 was a year of outstanding financial and strategic performance for the company and we are very pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results which demonstrate consistent execution, a focus on profitable growth and the fundamental strength of our businesses. Let's review our performance for 2014 in more detail and begin with our consolidated financial results on Slide 4. For the full year consolidated revenue increased 6.4% to 68.8 billion and operating cash flow increased 6.9% to 22.9 billion reflecting healthy organic growth in both our cable and NBCUniversal businesses. For comparison purposes when you exclude the 1.1 billion of revenue and 105 million of operating cash flow generated by the Sochi Olympics in the first quarter the 237 million of year-to-date transaction-related expenses and the pension termination cost in 2013 our consolidated revenue increased a healthy 4.7% and our consolidated operating cash flow grew 7.2%. For the full year our earnings per share increased 25% to $3.20 per share. However excluding adjustments our earnings per share increased 18.6% to $2.93 per share. Free cash flow for 2014 modestly decreased 3.8% to 8.2 billion and free cash flow per share decreased 2.2% to $3.12 per share. As our growth in consolidated operating cash flow was offset by increased capital investment and cash taxes as well as increased working capital related to additional spending for our film and TV production, now let's review the results of our individual businesses starting with Cable Communications on Slide 5. Cable Communications delivered another year of strong financial results in customer metrics. Revenue increased 6.1% in the fourth quarter and grew 5.5% for the full year to 44.1 billion reflecting solid growth in our Residential business driven by strong…

Jason Armstrong

Management

Thank you, Michael. Regina, let’s open up the call for Q&A please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jessica Reif Cohen of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Jessica Reif Cohen

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

I have two questions. The first is an NBCUniversal question. You've had such a stunning turnaround, as Brian mentioned. I was just wondering if Brian or Steve could talk about what some of the biggest levers are over the next three years and have you changed your views at all on cable network upside?

Brian Roberts

Management

So we are very diverse, NBCUniversal is a very diversified company. We are in really 15 different businesses and obviously some of the businesses will be running from a financial point of view and some of the businesses will be not running as much. Right now it's really running are the Theme Parks, broadcast, the movie businesses is on a roll and looks like that roll can continue with a very-very strong slate in 2015. We still think there is a lot of upside we're up our OCF is up something like 75% since we did the deal four years ago and we still believe that we have significant upside and that upside resides in a lot of our businesses. But right now I think one of the big drivers is Theme Parks and Films is a driver as well. In terms of the cable network business I think what we're finding is throughout the entire industry is that the ratings pressure is greater than it was a year or two ago which means it is going be a tougher business to grow we still think it is a growable business very healthy business. You've got a lot of different revenue streams you've got affiliate fees you've got SVOD, you have international, you have other digital businesses in addition to the advertising but whereas that was a double-digit growth business I think it's probably more as single-digit growth business in the future still a good business. But the growth prospects as we mentioned in the last call are unlikely to be as good in the next five years as they've been in the last five. But as a whole we feel very comfortable that NBCUniversal is a segment of Comcast that has tremendous growth potential in the future.

Jessica Reif Cohen

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

And my second question was just on the buyback. Can you maybe give us a little more color on why -- we understand that you're going to come back with an incremental buyback post the deal, but why no underling increase in 2015? Our estimate is that you will be levered at roughly 1.6 times with the new buyback adjusting for CapEx, the increased CapEx. So how should we think about your views on leverage and why hold back?

Brian Roberts

Management

Well I think our target leverage has not changed for a long time Jessica. We've said we would like our target leverage to be between 1.5 and 2 times and it would take us quite a few years to get to that range. When you look at 2014 we actually increased the buyback by 1.25 billion to deal with the Time Warner Cable side. As we look at '15 we're at 4.25 billion that does include the 1.25 billion. But what we're really looking forward to is getting Time Warner Cable closed and the divesture transactions and we think the buyback for the full year 2015 could come in at close to $10 billion. In addition if we do get Time Warner Cable closed our leverage will pop up it will probably -- because we said this will be leverage neutral transaction which will probably put us in the 2 to 2.1 range which is slightly above what our target has been. So we're really looking at this somewhat as a two staged process for us and that’s really what the focus of our buyback has been. In addition from a dividend perspective we looked at it both in terms of our company today and if we are able to get to the merger complete obviously we will issuing some shares and those will have dividends as well. So we feel very good about our return of capital we think it's pretty aggressive for 2015.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Phil Cusick

Analyst · Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead

So given the announcement from Cablevision on Freewheel and recent chatter about Google's plans, I wonder if you can give us updated thoughts on how you think about just Wi-Fi both on the existing business where you are ramping that out, where does that go and then the potential for mobility later over the next couple of years? Thanks.

Brian Roberts

Management

We think Wi-Fi is a great asset. We have 8.3 million hotspots now including the in-home and outdoors. We think we are working on how we monetize that asset and bring it to market. As you know we have MVNO relationships with Sprint and Verizon and the use of Wi-Fi continues to go up about 70% of in-home and office it goes over Wi-Fi. And I think given the recent spectrum auctions, it shows that wireless seeks wired and just from a cost perspective and should we do believe in the asset and we will be working on the ways to bring it to market over the coming months.

Phil Cusick

Analyst · Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Can you give us any idea what that might look like versus what is out there today?

Brian Roberts

Management

No, I think we are still assessing possibilities and we will announce when we have got the product well refined and developed.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Craig Moffett

Analyst · Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead

Two questions if I could. First, just in terms of timing on the transaction, can you just elaborate on whether you have entered the negotiation phase on conditions with either the DOJ or the FCC or that's just sort of an ongoing dialogue that happens all the time? And then second, if you could just talk about the capital intensity for a minute, Michael. Have you changed your view at all about the long-term capital intensity on the cable side of the business? Charter is moving to a much more set-top box-light model. It sounds like with your capital intensity still rising a little bit that that presumably is not part of your plan. So I just wondered if you could elaborate a little bit on that issue.

Brian Roberts

Management

Why don’t I take the CapEx side the reality is I know we call it capital intensity but all CapEx is actually bad CapEx. If you go back to 2012 and look at our capital investment plan compared to 2014 about 75% of that increase is gone into what we call growth capital and that growth capital has just terrific return on invested capital for us. We look at it on a risk adjusted basis, we look at it on CLV, we look at it on just pure cash-on-cash and we are investing pretty heavily in some offensive areas like expanding business services great returns, deploying X1 great returns, putting additional Wi-Fi and wireless gateways as Phil mentioned which have a great returns on their own and I think sees us for different businesses that are attractive going forward. So we really look at where is the capital going, is the capital going to areas that are defensive or are they going to areas that are offensive and have terrific cash-on-cash returns. That being said there are some trends in our favor, we don’t give guidance long-term where you could see equipment cost coming down, you could see how the household architecture becomes less expensive but what we are really focused on right now is business services and X1 and a variety of areas that we think have just great cash-on-cash and great growth areas for us going forward. So to go from 13.9% to 14.5% with the vast majority being success oriented and growth oriented, we are pretty excited about making those investments which also has similar aspects to NBC on the Theme Parks we are delighted to make the investments in Theme Parks and the results speak for themselves.

Michael Angelakis

Management

Let me just finish on that with one other thought that I think the hardware cost in household are coming down overtime, we are seeing terrific capability increases, we are putting very capable devices and what’s happening is then fantastic response from consumers. In fact when I go to New York and LA people say how fast can I get X1 I wish I had it and that takes me to your second question, your first question which was the regulatory process. And all we can say is pretty much as we have said all along which is they are shot clock at the FCCs due to expire at the end of March lots of information gathering has been taking place and we continue to believe this is an approvable transaction and this week they will be dealing on the open Internet order as everyone knows and hopefully they will be able to turn attention to our transaction right thereafter.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ben Swinburne

Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Brian, going back to your comments on Title II, I am curious, some of your telecom competitors have talked about the implications of this regulatory approach to the appetite to invest, how they think about the returns of the business. Maybe for you and Michael, do you see any major implications based on what we know today? I realize we will know more, in theory, in a few days, but based on what we know today, do you think -- does this change how you think about the broadband business return profile or your willingness to spend capital on that business?

Brian Roberts

Management

Look I think and then Michael can comment as well, my view is until we see the order it is premature to speculate obviously my comments I just made about our view that we don’t believe Title II was the right answer, but if that is indeed what happens we will have to appropriately adjust and reflect on what the words are, what the specific details are, we are here heartened that there is at least the desire to forbear from things that would be a disincentive to invest but until we see a fine print I think we have to reserve judgment.

Michael Angelakis

Management

The only thing I would add Ben is obviously the uncertainty that Title II may provide I think does provide us with the opportunity for a higher degree of scrutiny on capital and broadband we really as Brian said need to look at the details but there will be some internal scrutiny here in terms of what our investment plans look like with broadband.

Ben Swinburne

Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

And if I could ask just one follow-up, you mentioned customer service I think first as one of your key areas of focus for 2015. Maybe Neil, if you want to comment, what have you seen so far recently on your initiatives there and is that paying off in lower churn? What should we be looking for in the business results in 2015 to say that your investments are paying off?

Neil Smit

Analyst · Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Well Ben, we’re very much focused on the on boarding process where our churn is 2 to 3 times higher the first 90 days and we want to get that experience right for the customer. We’re making things more convenient for the customer so we recently announced the UPS deal and I think boxes have then returned now to 90% of their 4,400 stores so the consumers are using that convenience. And we’re improving the tools that our employees are using so we rolled out Tech Finder we’ve got a customer effort index where we can look at how many times customers called or had service calls so we have got a lot of efforts going. The good news was in Q3 that our video results were driven primarily by reduced retention and Q4 excuse me and so we’re seeing retention improving and we’re going to keep driving the customer experience as our top initiative and it will be our best product.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Vijay Jayant

Analyst · Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

Just continuing on the Title II front, obviously it appears that it is probably going to get challenged legally, so I think some investors are concerned that, as part of concessions on the merger, that you may give up your legal right to challenge that. Is that any risk at all in your thinking? Thank you.

Brian Roberts

Management

I would differ till we see the order but I think we do not want to be different than any other company in the industry and one of the things that we’ve said from the beginning is that the right place to have a review of broadband even if we don’t agree with the outcome of that review in all cases would be to effect all industries and all providers so that are on a level playing field as we go forward. So in our view our business is not in the same geography as Time Warner Cable we’re in different markets and the right way to look at the business I think is to look at the whole industry and look at all providers.

Vijay Jayant

Analyst · Vijay Jayant with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead

If I could add one more, please, which is with the new definition allegedly on broadband speeds of 25 by 3, and allegedly the concentration that Comcast pro forma for Time Warner Cable will have, can you talk about does that matter, especially in an environment where the regulators telling you how you are managing that, both at the interconnect and at the customer level. Does concentration matter, in your mind?

Brian Roberts

Management

That is in my understanding of 25 is an aspirational goal it’s something that we have been fortunate to be investing all these years to bring fantastic broadband I think our results today and for the last several years have shown that that investment pays off and we’re hoping that when it’s all said and done there is going to continue to be incentives to want to make new investments and I think our motive had never been for some aggregation benefit actually in the broadband business but rather to continue to give consumers more and better usage. So when you go to the Consumer Electronics Show what you see are Internet of Things, Internet of Devices, you hear all the consumer electronics companies that they make smart devices that attach to intelligence in the cloud and if we can continue to have more bits be demanded by consumers that’s a great thing for those of us who are in the business of trying to innovate and build more capacity. And I think that’s the aspiration and I think that’s what our company has done well and we’re going to continue investing in that way if we’re able to.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brett Feldman

Analyst · Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

I'm going to try to follow-up to what Phil was asking about earlier. I know you are not prepared to roll out what the big wireless strategy is, although it sounds like we will get more color on it later this year. But maybe just bigger picture, as you work on the strategy behind the scenes and assess what the opportunity is, are you ultimately looking at mobility as something that might end up being an attractive feature? Meaning it would be cool if you could mobilize products you already offer. Or are you looking at this more holistically to think that this could be a business and that investors should be thinking more about Comcast getting into a new business, potentially, through mobility?

Brian Roberts

Management

I think it could be either one or both we think it’s as I said a great asset, clearly the world is becoming more mobile. We have our apps our video apps out in the mobile space and they're getting a lot of usage our My Account app for customer services had 41% of our customer relationships visitors in December. So we view the mobile world expanding as well as we're assessing the business opportunity clearly Wi-Fi is a great asset it's got a lot of carrying capacity and that as Brian just said the more bits that are travelling over a network the more buyable that Wi-Fi network connected to a wired network becomes. So it could be both of what you stated.

Michael Angelakis

Management

The only thing I would add Brett is when you think about all the investment we've made in the Wi-Fi over the years and everything on our Cloud DVR and our TV Everywhere platform. The real goal has been that our customers can access their video any time anywhere whether in the home or outside the home. And we think Wi-Fi is a great delivery mechanism to expand that product. If Wi-Fi can also develop into a different type of service than that’s an added benefit to the Wi-Fi investment.

Brett Feldman

Analyst · Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

And just to clarify is it safe to assume that your CapEx guidance for the year incorporates whatever extent you are investing in the wireless business this year?

Brian Roberts

Management

That’s correct our CapEx guidance includes our Wi-Fi deployment.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead.

Jason Bazinet

Analyst · Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead

Just have a question for Mr. Burke. There is a view on the buy side that because of the measurement issues for cable networks that there may be sort of a catch-up trade in terms of ratings and ad growth. And I just wonder if you could comment on that in the context of your single digit revenue growth rate commentary.

Steve Burke

Analyst · Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please go ahead

I think there clearly is room for improvement in terms of measurement. As more and more people watch in more different areas online and often those areas are un-rated. There is also a catch up in terms of monetization to give you an example we think about 70% of the views of Jimmy Fallon and The Tonight Show occur online and that the majority of those views are un-monetized completely un-monetized. So here you have one of the hottest shows on television where 70% of the views are in an area that we don’t get credit for it. That’s not going last forever. So clearly there is going to be an improvement that having been said cable ratings are under pressure because there are so many new shows, so many people are watching SVOD, so many people have DVRs there are a whole variety of reasons why cable ratings are under pressure. But I do think at the same time there is reason for cautious optimism that both measurement and monetization is going to get better.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Marci Ryvicker

Analyst · Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

I have two. The first, it feels like Time Warner Cable is a lot stronger today than when you announced the transaction initially. Is that what you are seeing as you go through your integration process? And then the second question is really for Stephen or Brian. You mentioned a theme park in China. At what point do you start building that out and does that impact the financials?

Brian Roberts

Management

I'll take the Time Warner Cable one I mean I think that the team over there have a plan obviously we diligence that plan a while ago and it appears to us like they're trying to execute that plan. So obviously we don’t have as much insight as we would like. We hope they are successful in executing on their plan.

Steve Burke

Analyst · Marci Ryvicker with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

So in terms of Beijing we're talking many years out. We're talking after 20-20 a park that opens and we haven’t even completed the final design process and much of our arrangements with Beijing. So I think we're ways before capital becomes anything that you would call material.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Kannan Venkateshwar

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Just a couple from my side, the first is on the Wi-Fi side. You guys are in a unique position given that you have broadcast spectrum, especially with the intent to auction coming on next year. So when you look at your Wi-Fi deployment plans and the wireless plans that you have, how much does the spectrum that you own fit into that plan in addition to the MVNO agreement that you have with Verizon and Sprint? And then, secondly, on the dynamic ad insertion front, there has been a lot of conversations about how that will become more important over the course of the year, but is it fair to say that a big part of the back end is actually owned by the cable distributors when it comes to inserting these ads dynamically and how do the economics work for dynamic ad insertion in that case? Thanks.

Brian Roberts

Management

Why don’t I take the first one I know we've had a couple questions related to Wi-Fi or wireless and really I don’t think this is the point that we would want to be too open with what our wireless plans are going forward. We are investing in Wi-Fi, we think Wi-Fi has many benefits to our customers and we'll be pursuing that whether it can be mobile or how we think about the broadcast spectrum I think that’s still very much a work in process in our organization I think we have a lot of work internally to do to appropriately evaluate that. So I don’t want to spend too much time on it because from our standpoint we are working through all those issues and technologies internally.

Michael Angelakis

Management

And concerning DAI capabilities the back-end that inserts the ad dynamically was actually built by a cable consortium called Canoe the rates they charge are fairly immaterial because the primary objective was to get it to be used across all the networks. So we currently have the majority of the networks involved in it, and it’s gone very well and it is kind of found inventory where we can insert as pre post mid roll and we will continue to focus on improving DAI and getting more programming through it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike McCormack with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Mike McCormack with Jefferies. Please go ahead

You've talked about margin stability in the cable side as we go into 2015. I am assuming the programming expense offset would be some sort of rate adjustment. Just trying to get a sense for your thoughts on price elasticity, where you might be able to take some price. And then also maybe a comment about AT&T U-verse, it seems that they have been pulling back. Have you seen a change in the competitive landscape? Thanks.

Brian Roberts

Management

I will take those in reverse I think the competitive landscape remains generally the same. There is quite a bit of promotional activity going on but we feel we are very competitive and I think our results show it. And we are competitive in terms of product we are offering as well as the offer itself and we are very focused on the retention end. Concerning the price increases, I think there will be modest price increases in line with previous years. I think in terms of maintaining margin a bigger factor is the mix of products where we get higher mix of business services HSD and those are higher margin products. So we feel we can offset the programming increases by improved mix and modest rate adjustments.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Mike McCormack with Jefferies. Please go ahead

I guess, Neil, just thinking about subs in 2015 between DirecTV talking about going negative and maybe U-verse pulling back even though you say it's competitive, what is your view on sub counts as you look out on 2015 for video?

Neil Smit

Analyst · Mike McCormack with Jefferies. Please go ahead

I think we don’t put out numbers on what we project for itself but we will continue to try and balance the sub volume mixture with the rate increases and I think that’s the delicate balance we are always trying to maintain which is rate and volume. And we think we are doing a pretty job of it I mean video loss has decreased 27% this year and we are going to keep focusing on balancing rate and volume.

Operator

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of James Ratcliffe with Buckingham Research. Please go ahead.

James Ratcliffe

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Two if I could. First, can you just update us on thoughts on over-the-top video products and particularly out of your footprint? Even with TWC, you are only going to cover about half the country and if there's interest in potentially exploring the other offerings I think to the other half. And secondly, on Business Services, can you talk about how much of growth is footprint expansion at this point versus increased penetration of the footprint you already have and the customers you already have? Thanks.

Brian Roberts

Management

Neil you want to take or Mike business services for a second for a bit.

Neil Smit

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Business services, we don’t put out what the mix is of network expansion versus just growth on the network but about we are penetrated about 25% in SMB and 5% in mid market. Mid market growing at a increasing rate relative to SMB and we continue to expand the network as Michael said because it’s a great investment and then we try and put as many businesses on the network as we can, to get it denser. So overall we will continue investing in business services expansion and continue driving our mid market and SMB.

Michael Angelakis

Management

But as you can imagine it’s a combination of both James, just probably 18 month ago we had literally zero penetration in the mid sized sector, so we invested in that area. Now we are still pretty small at 5% but growing nicely, so it’s really a combination of both.

Brian Roberts

Management

On the OTT out of footprint, I think what we have said previously we don’t have any new news today which is our focus is in footprint investing in networks, having direct relationship with customers having tens of thousands of people in the field to come to your home and service you and then add devices in your house and grow that relationship over the years. And if you step back in the year 2014 I think we grew cash flow close to 7% as a full company, 18% is NBCUniversal outstanding year over 5%-5.5% at the cable division while as Neil just said increasing customer relationships by 358,000 which is the big increase over 2013. And then when you roll it up financially we have been able to have a 11% dividend increase, $10 billion authorization buyback from the Board, setting us up to continue to the momentum that I think this company has and investing in capital areas where we are excited by the opportunity led principally by business services and the X1 rollout and some of the Theme Parks activity. So all-in-all really pleased, we stay focused good solid strong year and a great beginning to 2015 and thank you all. Jason?

Jason Armstrong

Management

Thanks Brian, with that we will wrap-up today’s call. And I want to thank everybody for joining us and Regina back to you.