Earnings Labs

CNA Financial Corporation (CNA)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Mon, May 2, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to CNA’s discussion of its 2022 First Quarter Financial Results. CNA’s first quarter earnings release, presentation and financial supplement were released this morning and are available via its website wwe.cna.com. Speaking today will be Dino Robusto, CNA’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Lindquist, CNA’s Chief Financial Officer. Following their prepared remarks we will be opening the line for questions. Today’s call may include forward looking statements and references to non-GAAP financial measures. Any forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made during the call. Information concerning those risks is contained in the earnings release and CNA’s most recent SEC filings. In addition, the forward looking statements speak only as of today, Monday, May 2, 2022. CNA expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements made during the call. Regarding non-GAAP measures reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and other information have been provided in the financial supplement. The call is being recorded on webcast during the next week. The call may be assessed on CNA’s website. If you’re reading a transcript of this call please note that the transcript may not be reviewed for accuracy. Thus it may contain transcription errors that could materially alter the intended meaning of the statements. With that I will now turn the conference over to CNA’s Chairman and CEO Dino Robusto. Please go ahead sir.

Dino Robusto

CEO

Thank you, Cecilia, and good morning all. We started off the year strong with increased underlying PNC profitability, lower catastrophe losses, and good production results. But before we begin with the details, I wanted to acknowledge the unconscionable loss of life and devastation in Ukraine. Our hearts reach out to the displaced and suffering. Turning back to the quarter. Core income was up 20%, the 316 million despite lower investment income from LPs and common stock. In the first quarter, the all combined ratio was 91.9%, 6.2 points lower in the first quarter of 2021 and our best quarterly all in combined ratio since the third quarter of 2016. Pre-tax catastrophe losses were only 19 million, or 1.0 of the combined ratio. The PNC underlying combined ratio was 91.4%, a 0.5 improvement over the first quarter of 2021. Expense ratio of 31% was lower by a 0.5 and the underlying loss ratio of 60.1% was the same as the prior year quarter. But as I mentioned in prior quarters, the property quarter share treaty that we purchased in June of last year lowered the premium mix between property business and our other classes. And since our property business has a lower underlying loss ratio its mixed effect increased overall PNC underlying loss ratio. In the first quarter this mixed effect on PNC overall was 0.3 points. So we actually recognize 0.3 points of margin improvement in the quarter after adjusting for the mix. There was margin improvement in specialty and international and accounting for the mix effect which for commercial is 0.7 points. The underlying loss ratio and commercial was consistent with the prior year’s quarter. Our PNC overall, prior period development was favorable by 0.5 points on the combined ratio similar to the first quarter of 2021. Now turning…

Scott Lindquist

Management

Thanks, Dino and good morning, everyone. Based on our 20% increase in core income, our core ROE of 10.3% is up from 8.8% in the first quarter a year ago. Our PNC operations produced a core income of $321 million, which is a 22% increase as compared to Q1, 2021. A key contributor to the strong result was our pre-tax underlying underwriting income of $165 million. In addition, our catastrophe losses were relatively modest at $19 million pre-tax compared to $125 million pre-tax last year first quarter. Our Q1 expense ratio of 31% is in line with expectations that were set out in last quarter’s call and is 1.5 point lower than Q1, 2021. While we continue to make investments in technology, analytics, and talent, and we are beginning to incur more TNE as we emerge from the pandemic, lower acquisition costs in commercial and the higher effect, the effect of higher net earned premiums have more than offset the effect of these higher costs. I will note there will be a certain amount of variability quarter-to-quarter however. However, we continue to believe an expense ratio of 31% is a reasonable run rate. For the first quarter overall PNC net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was 0.5 points favorable compared to 0.6 points favorable in the prior year quarter. Favorable development in our specialty segment was driven by surety and warranty for more recent accident years somewhat offset by medical malpractice. Our corporate and other segment produced the core loss of $28 million in the first quarter which compares to a $36 million core loss in Q1, 2021. Prior quarter results include $12 million after tax loss on a loss portfolio transfer of certain legacy excess workers compensation reserves. For licensed group, we had core income of…

Dino Robusto

CEO

Thanks Scott. Before opening the call to the Q&A session I have a few additional comments. We are bullish about 2022. The market conditions are excellent when you consider that rates are up plus 30% on a cumulative basis since the beginning of 2019 and we are benefiting from the compounding impacts of progressively better terms and conditions over that same time period from things like higher deductibles, coverage restrictions and limit re-profiling. And our new business pricing as well as terms and conditions track similar to renewals so our new business rates are up substantially on a cumulative basis as well. We believe these favorable conditions afforded us the opportunity to continue to grow our portfolio through new business and strong retention. A lot of the rate increases they hit their peak in the fourth quarter of 2020 and have moderated at a measured pace of about 1 point per quarter to 7% in the first quarter of 2022. With written rate increases still in excess of long run loss cost trends and earned rates at 9% this should portend positive margin persisting through 2022. Of course, there could be further upward pressure on loss cost trends. But the market has behaved rationally the prior increases in loss cost trends that have either accelerated precipitously or persisted at elevated levels for a protracted period of time and we would anticipate the market pricing behavior would continue to react accordingly if loss cost trends accelerate further and with that, we’ll be out happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take a first question from Joshua Shanker from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I appreciate the color on the alternative investment performance and about the hedge funds. A couple of questions. One is we break it up into limited partnerships and hedge funds and in limited partnerships for peers had a fairly good return 4Q. Does that pretend that the hedge fund performance in 1Q was often continues to be so? Do we need to be concerned? Because in 2Q we’re going to see obviously the 1Q marks for limited partnerships. Do you have any sort of color on how we should be anticipating that one quarter ahead?

Scott Lindquist

Management

Hey, Joshua its Scott. Thanks for the question. Yes, so if you take a look at our limited partnerships, again, 70% are private equity. This quarter results really reflected fourth quarter overall market performance. So yes, I would expect the second quarter private equity lag, limited partnerships to reflect the first quarter overall equity performance. And, of course, the hedge funds that those are real time flow right through earnings real time. And then I would note, a $200 million of common stock mark-to-market is within those results too, that of course is real time also.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Okay, and have you I mean, real time have you seen any recovery on the hedge fund side from the 1Q marks?

Dino Robusto

CEO

I don’t know if I can really comment on that right at this point in time.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Okay, it’s totally fair. I realized this had had a huge influence on combined ratios and the rate and loss cost trend don’t really explain the whole story. And you did explain that in the prepared remarks. But I don’t say that right next to loss cost I think has been the main story in PNC over last three years, right? Look at the commercial segments underlying 62 to loss ratio, it’s a it’s a very good number, but it’s also the highest since 2Q, 19. And it’s really higher than the annual averages from 2016 to 2020 and I’m scratching my head a little. I think about maybe it would be worthwhile, if you talk about when you came in 2015. What the business mix looks like in commercial, what it looks like today, and how that’s been affecting the loss ratio, despite the fact that you’ve been getting a lot of rate next loss costs.

Dino Robusto

CEO

Okay, Joshua, I mean, I think we’re comfortable today with the portfolio. We’ve made a lot of different with underwriting changes that we’ve talked about on many calls, whether it is some of our CAT exposure, some of our property exposure here in the United States, etc. So we’re comfortable with the portfolio, I think when you take a look at the calendar year, commercial loss ratio and combined ratio as indicated, I think it’s amongst the best that we’ve seen since 2008. The underlying commercial loss ratio is consistent with the fourth quarter when you adjust for the property mix. The property mix did have the effect from the reinsurance the foot pressure on the loss ratio, on the underlying loss ratio, because we seeded more property premium away, but again one of the reasons we purchased the reinsurance treaty, having also reduced a lot of our data exposure was to be able to balance the book a little bit going forward. It represented about 20% in commercial 20% property in our PNC overall 80% is all the other sort of casualty lines. And, in fact, it’s interesting, if you were to take a look at the first quarter property growth we still had some underwriting going on from CAT exposed property. But if you take that aside, which is coming to the tail end property was up, actually above most of the other lines from a growth standpoint. And so I think we start to take advantage of that reinsurance treaty that impacted it sort of adversely. So, look, at the end of the day we’re pleased with our commercial portfolio. We were pleased with how our PML to premium ratios have improved. And so we see it benefiting us both from an underlying standpoint and from a calendar standpoint, and then the margin conversation is what it is. We’re going to, we’ve been prudent and we’re going to stay that way. And if it’s been a little too prudent, then maybe we will benefit from it all else equal later on.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

I appreciate the points. It’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from Gary Ransom from Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead.

Gary Ransom

Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead

Yes, good morning. I wanted to ask a little bit more about inflation. And clearly, it’s affected many of the short tail lines, the economic inflation that we’ve seen over the last year. But how do you think about how that might seep into the social inflation that might affect long tail lines? Can you share your thoughts on that?

Dino Robusto

CEO

I mean, look, I think you could see it impact some of the social inflation correlation that we see from some of the inflationary pressures. I think, though, from honestly from a social inflation standpoint, what we’re looking at is as the courts open up, Gary and the dockets get cleared up a little bit, it’ll be interesting to see if that accelerates. I think our early read is we’re clearly starting to see a little bit more attorney representation on certain claims a little bit more pressure. But that’s really where we think social inflation. It’s got some pressure points and what we’re watching very closely.

Gary Ransom

Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead

Alright. Yes. Have the dockets actually cleared very much? I mean, is that I realize its opening.

Dino Robusto

CEO

No, it’s still early. It’s still early. It’s still early. So that’s why when we think about being prudent, we just need some additional time to really see what is going on with the sort of social, legal towards sort of inflation. And so still early, but like I’ve always contended it was just obfuscated by the pandemic, rather than extinguished.

Gary Ransom

Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead

Another thing you mentioned in the comments in the press release is that the rates remain robust where they’re needed the most. And so I assume there’s some pockets where there is still where profitability is not back to where it needs to be. Can you tell us what some of those places are? And maybe they’re the same as they’ve always been, but I just wanted to ask now.

Dino Robusto

CEO

Yes. Quite frankly, Gary, to a large extent, but look, I mean a commercial lotto we’re getting about nine points of rates. That’s good. It’s slightly above loss cost trend but it’s going to have to sustain itself at 9% for a longer period of time before we see that line of business getting into what we sort of consider of form of rate adequacy. On the healthcare, we’re still seeing imports of our healthcare portfolio. We got double digit rate increases and there too that’s required. International in the quarter still, UK, Europe double digit. Canada is a little bit less, but it’s a lot more profitable. And then obviously, comp is down slightly. Cyber it’s not a big portion of the overall portfolio, but it deteriorated quickly with ransom ware claims and we’re still in and around almost triple digit rate increases. So those are the lines that you would expect.

Gary Ransom

Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead

All right and then I just, you told that Ukraine was de minimis. But do you have, do you write any of those categories of lines that might be exposed over there and in the international book whether it’s credit risk, or, and I am just trying to get a sense of the mix over there.

Dino Robusto

CEO

That’s fine. You may recall, Gary, one of the lines several years back when we started to re underwrite our Lloyd’s syndicate was political risk and trade credit. And so that’s all run off, and we don’t anticipate whatever might be a tail on that is going to come to be any form of an issue. And it’s a small portion, very small portion, netted down on political violence that we all have through the syndicate, which we don’t expect is going to amount to anything based on all of our analysis. So no, we’re not a big writer of lines that are obviously getting affected many of the ways, many of which you and your, your analyst colleagues have all written about, and we don’t play in those lines.

Gary Ransom

Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you very much for that Dino.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take your next question from Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead.

Meyer Shields

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Dino can we get a little more color on the non-renewals in international in January? Is there a particular line of business that you’re finding less attractive?

Dino Robusto

CEO

]: And now in the last six months, both the economic inflation has increased. And, as I said, we’ll wait to see, right, as it’s court open up the dockets clear I think you’re still dealing with an inflationary pressure. So the way I think about it is, in terms of how to trigger what would be maybe a little bit more, it’s sort of a peaking margin. I think we need to see some stability in the rate of acceleration of those loss cost trends. And it could settle at a higher level, but like settle and be more stable and until we’re faced with that kind of a trigger we’re just going to remain prudent.

Meyer Shields

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead

Okay, that’s perfect. That makes a lot of sense. Final question, if I can. I’m asking this because we’ve gotten somewhat different descriptions of this. Are you planning workers compensation rate pressure to be a little worse in the first quarter of this year than the fourth quarter of last year?

Dino Robusto

CEO

Just to make sure I heard Meyer you are referring to the rates on work comp and how they moved from first quarter to the fourth quarter. Is that’s it? No, if you actually look at our rate movement on work comp over the course of the last four, five quarters. It’s been, there’s been a little bit of fluctuation up and down, but relatively the same at about low single digit. And we haven’t seen any sort of trend. Back then you recall Meyer, and I didn’t see an inflection point. And it’s just still playing out at the low single digit rate.

Meyer Shields

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead

Okay, fantastic. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will now take a follow up question from Joshua Shanker from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes, thank you. I’m just looking for a little education on the fronting business with I guess the cell phones. Obviously, growth continues to look good. Can you talk a little about I mean, about your arrangements there, the relationships you have, how sticky they are, and whether as the 5G revolution takes place, that you’re going to be there at the forefront of providing that service.

Dino Robusto

CEO

So on the warranty business, as you know Joshua, we have two components. We have the electronics and in particular the cell phones for which that is done through the captive and reinsured back 500% which is why we always give you the growth ex-captive and we do have a longer term arrangement. And it’s a function of how that sort of business grows. Then there’s a little bit of other electronics business that we also go after. And then of course, there’s our auto warranty and all in all the warranty business continues to be in all its aspects of focus for us. And on the issue of the 5G revolution, I’m going to leave it to those that are considerably more intelligent than I am on the technology.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. So the important thing is I want to clarify your relationships have are locked in for the next three years.

Dino Robusto

CEO

Yes. well, they’re they are longer term and I don’t know when the exact sort of is coming up but yes they’re multiyear deals and have been for a long time, and we have excellent relationships with them.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

That’s all I needed. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back to your speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

A - Dino Robusto

Analyst

That’s great. Thank you, Cecilia and thank you all. Talk to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That will continue today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.