Andrew Asher
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question
Okay. Yes, two good questions. On the first one, yes, it's very customary as you pointed out, A.J., that the winning RFP PBM covers the transition costs. So there's a negotiated pool of cost coverage for the actual sort of operating and consulting cost and execution costs that will take during 2023 to convert as of 1/1/24. Quite frankly, similar concept we had back in 2015. And your second question, so yes, another 3 months go by, and we are targeting our construction of our forecast and our 2023 operating plan is assuming a 2/1 commencement of redeterminations, but that has moved since last quarter. So right now, if you look back at right before the pandemic, we've grown about 3 million members in Medicaid, a little over 3 million, so call it about $12.5 billion of revenue. And so the last time we talked, we were estimating $7 billion to $7.5 billion would be the amount that would be sort of given back due to redeterminations, bumped that up a little bit now to $7.5 billion to $8 billion. So it's about 62% of that revenue that we've gained. But as each quarter goes by, I think the long-term prognosis of the company, we benefit because we don't give back 100% of that incremental revenue we've grown, at least in our estimates. So the time has been really good to be able to work with the states to plan for not just ensuring that there's continuity of coverage for Medicaid recipients but also to make sure our marketplace business, which is well-positioned in '25 of our Medicaid markets to be the recipient of some of those members. Your question about '23 versus '24, based upon a 2/1 commencement date, the midpoint of that revenue is $7.75 billion, probably $4 billion to $4.5 billion of that would hit in '23 and then the balance largely in '24, but let's see what happens with the PHE date, and we'll have to update you if that moves.