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CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 30, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to today's CNH Industrial Third Quarter and September year-to-date 2014 results conference call. (Operator Instructions). At this time I would like to turn the call over to your host today, Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Federico Donati

Management

Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon, everyone. We would like to welcome you to the CNH Industrial third quarter and September year-to-date 2014 results webcast conference call. CNH Industrial Group CEO, Rich Tobin and Max Chiara, Group CFO, will host today's call. They will use the material you should have downloaded from our website, www.cnhindustrial.com. After introductory remarks we will be available to answer the questions you may have. Before moving ahead, let me just remind you that any forward-looking statements we might be making during today's call, are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the Safe Harbor statement included in the presentation material. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rich Tobin.

Rich Tobin

Management

Thank you. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. Overall, we have had a satisfactory performance for the quarter, notwithstanding the challenging trading conditions in the agricultural row crop segment, particularly NAFTA's result, with commodity price declines negatively affecting projected farm income levels, tax incentives uncertainty and installed fleet age and in LATAM, as a result of commodity prices and negative regional sentiment in Brazil and Argentina which impacted both agricultural and commercial vehicle revenues and profits. Operating profit improved in commercial vehicles, construction equipment and powertrain segments as a result of increased demand in construction and powertrain and the beginning of the cost control actions as part of the Group's announced efficiency plan for which we'll give you an update in the presentation. In summary, we achieved net sales of industrial activities at $7.4 billion for the quarter [Technical Difficulty] activities at 7.1%. Under these conditions, we’re confirming our full year 2014 guidance, as you've seen from the press release and we've taken the opportunity to provide an early view of our expectations for 2015 industry volumes by segment and our expectation for industrial operating performance under forecasted demand conditions which we'll cover at the end of the presentation. At this point I'll turn it over to Max to give you an overview of the financial performance for the quarter, then I'll come back with the performance of the businesses and the overview for 2015.

Max Chiara

Management

Thank you, Rich. Good morning or afternoon. I'm on slide 5. In summary, for the quarter, consolidated revenues at $7.7 billion, consolidated net income of $162 million for the third quarter. Net income before restructuring and other exceptional items was $240 million for the quarter and $773 million at September year-to-date. EPS before restructuring and other exceptional items was $0.16 per share for the quarter and $0.57 share for the September year-to-date period, up roughly 4% versus prior year. Available liquidity at September end was $7.9 billion inclusive of $2.5 billion in undrawn committed facilities compared to $7.7 billion at June end. The company posted net sales of industrial activities of $7.4 billion for the quarter and of $23.2 billion for the first nine months. In the quarter, net sales increases in construction equipment and powertrain were more than offset by declines in agricultural equipment and commercial vehicles. Operating profit of industrial activities was $522 million in Q3 2014 with an operating margin of 7.1%. The first nine months, operating profit stood at $1.6 billion with margin of 7%. Net industrial debt at September 30, 2014 of $3.9 billion was $0.2 billion higher than at June end, with net industrial cash flow negative $700 million, affected by lower payables in the quarter due to seasonal slowdown of activity. On slide 6 we’ve the reconciliation from consolidated operating profit to net income for the quarter. Consolidated operating profit stood at $562 million, down $69 million to prior year. Restructuring expenses totaled $56 million compared to $3 million for Q3, 2013 as part of the efficiency program announced in July 2014. I will talk about it in more detail on the next slide. Interest expense net totaled $150 million for the quarter, $22 million higher than Q3 of last year, primarily due…

Rich Tobin

Management

Thanks, Max. I'm on slide 15, I think Max covered the operating performance for the quarter. Substantially, all the volume and mix of $176 million is in NAFTA and LATAM, because of the conditions I expressed earlier. Pricing has continued to hold up, so we are trying to remain disciplined in pricing and that's been able to offset both Tier 4 content added during the quarter and some costs related to the slowdown in the production activity. And then you see all the other categories are positive year-over-year. Slide 16, worldwide industry down for the quarter specifically in combines, down 22%, market share was flat for tractors while decreased for combines in all markets except for LATAM. I think in terms of the industry and the full year outlook, there is not a lot of changes here with the exception of LATAM from the previous quarter and we've brought down the combine number, but I think by another 500 basis points. Next slide, notwithstanding the anticipated production cuts in Q3, worldwide production of agricultural equipment was 10% above retail sales for the quarter, mainly the result of season stocking actions primarily in Asia-Pac and in LATAM. Production has decreased 6% versus the period of last year, more specifically in high-horsepower equipment, down 22% in NAFTA and in combines down 38% in NAFTA reaching the lowest quarterly production volume since Q3 of 2011. We are expecting the significantly under-produced retail demand in Q4 2014 to realign inventories to the expected market conditions. This is a slide that we’ve added just because of – which really dovetails what I'll show you later in the presentation about the expectations for 2015. What we're doing right now under the conditions to align the cost structure of the Group with the decrease in demand, especially…

Federico Donati

Management

Thank you, Mr. Tobin. Now we are ready to start the Q&A session. Sarah, please take the first question please.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). We will now take our first question from Ross Gilardi of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Ross Gilardi – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I was just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the drivers of the sequential margin improvement for Iveco in construction and certainly in the past few years, you've seen these businesses bounce around between sort of a modest margin and modest loss position from quarter to quarter. So just wondering, how sustainable is the profitability in these two segments? Clearly, you're expecting some improvement into 2015 to offset the agricultural weakness. But any more thoughts you can give there on the drivers of savings and improved earnings?

Rich Tobin

Management

Yes. I mean, I think that if you look on at least the quarterly chart in commercial vehicles, I think that what you see in terms of structural savings are really the beginning of the actions that we took at the end of Q2. So our expectation is that those savings hold and then flow through to an annualized basis in terms of next year. We are calling the bottom in LATAM. And LATAM significantly or – it offset all of the improvement that we'd made in Europe. I think that we've actually begun to improve our performance in Europe. Unfortunately, it was not forecasted when we started out the year. I don't think that anybody thought that the commercial vehicle market of LATAM was going to be what it is. So without getting into the granularity of the numbers, significant – year-over-year we've had a material change between 2013 and 2014 in commercial vehicle profitability on the swing of LATAM. Now we've taken actions to reduce our costs in LATAM for that new reality. So we're not going to have the downward trend where we're bleeding costs as we made those cuts into production. It's very early to tell in terms of what's going to happen overall. I think that we've taken a pretty conservative view. I think, overall in terms of calling the market flat I mean, the EMEA markets wasn't exactly the most buoyant market in 2013 and we're calling that flat for 2014. LATAM has been down significantly and we're calling it the bottom. I mean, I would assume or – that there is some improvement there in terms of market demand, because it's been pretty grim and you can see in terms of the order books and everything else. Now that we're on the other side of the election cycle hopefully sentiment will improve which will allow us to improve performance. But right now, what we are forecasting for 2015 is self-help in terms of structural cost and the reduction of launch cost that we've had on Euro VI and the new Daily launch that we incurred this year and the Euro VI conversion that we're still going through on the bus portion of the business. That alone is going to allow us even in a flattened market to improve performance for 2015. Ross Gilardi – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: And then, could you comment maybe a bit about Ag equipment dealer inventories and maybe through the key regions, do you feel like your dealers are getting things under control or has the dealer inventory situation gotten worse through the last quarter particularly with the additional dip in commodity prices?

Rich Tobin

Management

Look, it's higher than we would like in NAFTA for sure and that's why you've got some pretty significant cuts in production that I mentioned before in the row crop segment. So I think that we're working with the dealers. I wouldn't describe it as too much inventory. It's the total inventory; I think that's more of a problem between new and used. I don't – that's going to take some time to unwind. I think it's going to take through the first half of the year before we can get those positions stabilized I guess is the best way we can say it, in terms of an FMS point of view. And at the end of the day we're working with all the dealers. It's not a matter of – let's maximize 2014 and then fall off a cliff in 2015. So I think we are working with them in terms of making the new product that has been presold, available for the balance of the year. But in terms of what we see in terms of dealer inventory overall, I think that we're going to have the new reality – if we're calling the market correctly, if you look just at the NAFTA numbers then those dealer inventories are going to have to correct by that quantum overall. In Europe, we're actually up for the year versus previous year in Europe, in terms of revenues and profits. So right now, based on what we can see there is – European dealer inventories are okay. And LATAM, we've been adjusting all year, that tends to be a more volatile market, so dealer inventory tends to swing a little bit more violently than we see in NAFTA or the European inventories. We've been bringing them down. It's the buying season in LATAM now. So, we're going to be bringing – we've actually – what you can see in terms of production for retail in Q3 – part of that is us bringing up LATAM in preparation for the buying season. So we did a lot of the heavy lifting in LATAM at mid-year, I guess is the best way to put it. But clearly, NAFTA is the challenge and based on what we can see here. You're going to have to see total inventories drop by the same percentage points that I showed you for expectation for 2015. Ross Gilardi – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: And could you just elaborate a little bit on what you just said about European Ag and being up in terms of revenue and profit? Do you feel like that could be the next shoe to drop for Ag or does that – just feel like a more resilient market maybe just because you didn't have the same degree of up cycle over the last few years? And I'm talk specifically about Ag.

Rich Tobin

Management

Yes. I think the latter. I think that we never saw the big, tremendous upswing. I think that it's not as if there's no pressure in Europe. I think that it's a more disparate market than NAFTA is. So, it's not as heavily weighted on row crop as the – you see in NAFTA, so significantly less so. I think that we performed very well. I mean, I think that overall if we were to take at least a year-to-date performance for the Group in Ag, the best performance that we've had, just in terms of how we performed for the year so far, in terms of market share performance, in terms of increases in profitability year-over-year, it's been in the European business. And I think that we expect that to continue through 2015.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question from Rob Wertheimer of Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: So construction margins were good, pricing was good. I'm wondering if you're able to address whether that was a little bit idiosyncratic and that you were able to whether through product quality or otherwise, take pricing up? Or the industry data also had slightly better pricing today – whether you see industry pricing getting a little bit more healthy there?

Rich Tobin

Management

Well we are by no means the price leader. We're a follower in construction equipment. So, I would categorize it as overall market conditions for pricing improving. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: I guess you just kind of did this in detail, Rich, but it seems to me as though you'll end the year with dealer inventory on the Ag side and NAFTA up in an absolute sense in a down market. Am I incorrect in that? And therefore you'll have a few more quarters trying to work the dealer inventory down unless the market recovers?

Rich Tobin

Management

Well, Rob, I think everybody looks at those charts in terms of Ag inventory and writes NAFTA over the top of it. First of all, it's in units and it's global. So I think that our expectation is to lower dealer and company inventory at a minimum in NAFTA by the end of the year. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: If I can sneak in one more – I don't know if you'll answer this, but is your implied – there is a lot of ways to back into it. Is your implied 4Q Ag margin up year-over-year?

Rich Tobin

Management

I'm not going to give you a segmental Q4, right? I've given you a full year outlook confirmation and I've actually given you a projected 2015. I think that's enough.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question from Kwame Webb of Morningstar. Please go ahead. Kwame Webb – Morningstar: If I could just touch on the commercial vehicle segment – if I look at commercial vehicle sales in Europe pre-2008 versus today, it just seems like the run rates are dramatically lower. So, in terms of restructuring the business could you help us think about, secularly, how many units you think the European market can support? And then also, any comments on what you're doing to structure the business – the deal with the business cycle there?

Rich Tobin

Management

Okay. I don't think going back to 2008 would be entirely helpful. I think that we are just dealing with where we’re today and what our expectation is for next year, because we get into a long conversation about geographic and product mix. We're aligning our structural costs the best we can for 2015 future demand. Kwame Webb – Morningstar: Okay. And maybe just slip over to the powertrain business before we go. You guys have made some nice gains with external customer sales. If you could maybe talk about which product categories those gains have been in and why you think you're winning that business.

Rich Tobin

Management

I can't talk about the products themselves, nor the individual customers. I think that the gains are just a lot reflected by the acceptance of the SCR technology out of FPT.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question which comes from (indiscernible) of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

It's a couple of questions on the balance sheet, please. So at the Investor Day in the financial presentation, you outlined an intention to move towards investment grade ratings and I was wondering whether this had changed at all in light of the more challenging market conditions you're currently experiencing. And then secondly, I was trying to look at really Q4 cash flow and in particular on the working capital and whether we should expect a normal seasonal swing in Q4 or whether you thought that there could be anything unusual, given the more challenging market conditions that you're currently experiencing. Thank you.

Max Chiara

Management

Let me start from the second – to answer the second question. So, we expect Q4 to be positive in cash generation and basically most of the positive improvement will come from the liquidation of the inventory across the board on each segment including also the manufacturing inventory associated obviously, with the production cuts that we have already announced.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question from Mike Shlisky of Global Hunter. Please go ahead. Mike Shlisky – Global Hunter: A quick question for you on conditions in Ag in Brazil, could you maybe contrast for us the row crop business versus sugarcane business both currently and in 2015?

Rich Tobin

Management

I'm not going to give you the revenue split in Brazil between sugarcane and row crop. They're both under pressure this year both because of sugarcane mill profitability and then row crop on just general commodities. So I mean, right now the decline is relatively equal between the two. Mike Shlisky – Global Hunter: Okay. And then, secondly, I just wanted to get a little more clarity on your tax rate in 2015. I know that a big portion of your long term goals is to get that tax rate down. Can you maybe give some kind of color as to how that might be versus 2014?

Max Chiara

Management

I'll pick up the question here. So, we will continue on the trajectory to gear towards our natural rate which is, as we said, in the mid-30%s. So moving off the 40% to 44% guidance this year, we expect to improve the rate slightly towards our goal.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question from Ashik Kurian of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Ashik Kurian – Goldman Sachs: Just a quick question on Ag. Could you just help us try to get some comfort on your guidance for Ag next year, especially when we look at the used equipment values declining. When you say you're going to try to limit the impact of the decline on the gross margin level, why do you think that – or why would the pricing not come under pressure next year?

Rich Tobin

Management

The used equipment values may come under pressure, but in terms – as that inventory is liquidated. But in terms of our own earnings for 2015, if we take used aside for a moment you see we've basically given you by a granular portion of the businesses by category between tractors combines and horsepower segments of the tractors. If I take that volume decline that we're forecasting for 2015 and limit that decline just to the gross margin – we'll have to make up the best – the rest of it with structural cost reduction – that's what we're expecting for 2015. So profits will be down in Ag in 2015 but we're trying to limit that to just the average gross margin based – adjusted for mix.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we will now take our final question today from Michael Tyndall of Barclays. Please go ahead. Michael Tyndall – Barclays: Two quick ones if I may. And apologies if you've already said this, but have you given any figures in terms of what you think production will be down in Q4? I know one of your competitors is talking kind of 15% to 20% decline in production and when I look at the inventory and your objective it feels like you're going to have to make a pretty sizeable cut in Q4. And then the second question – back to 2015, I guess the implication is that things in CV and C will improve considerably. Can you give us I guess, any order of magnitude in terms of what you're thinking? It feels like it's going to be something like $0.5 billion.

Rich Tobin

Management

I'm not going to quantify it at this juncture. They're both going to improve. In terms of production cuts, let's limit it to NAFTA. Combine productions are going to be cut 42% in the fourth quarter and high-horsepower tractors 27%.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That will conclude the Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Federico Donati for any additional or closing remarks.

Federico Donati

Management

Thank you, Sarah. We would like to thank everyone for attending today's call with us. Have a good evening.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.