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Core & Main, Inc. (CNM)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Jun 14, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello everyone and warm welcome to the Core & Main Q1 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be operator. [Operator Instructions]. I now have the pleasure of handing over to your host, Robyn Bradbury to begin. Robyn, over to you.

Robyn Bradbury

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the Core & Main fiscal 2022 first quarter earnings call. This is Robyn Bradbury, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A for Core & Main. I am joined today by Steve LeClair, our Chief Executive Officer and Mark Witkowski, our Chief Financial Officer. Steve will lead today's call with a brief business update followed by a review of our growth strategy and an example of how we are targeting growth in under penetrated products categories. Mark will then discuss our first quarter financial results and our full year outlook followed by a Q&A session. We will conclude the call with Steve's closing remarks. We issued our fiscal 2022 first quarter earnings release this morning and posted a presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website. As a reminder our earnings press release, presentation, and the statements made during this call include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those expectations and projections. Such risks and uncertainties include the factors set forth in the earnings press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during today’s call which we believe are useful to assess the operating results and efficiency of our business. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in our earnings press release and in the appendix of our fiscal 2022 first quarter earnings presentation. Thank you for your interest in Core & Main. I will now turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Steve LeClair.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thanks Robyn, good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today and welcome to our fiscal 2022 first quarter earnings call. Starting on Page 5, I will begin with a brief business update. We delivered an extraordinary start to fiscal 2022 as we achieved strong growth in both net sales and adjusted EBITDA. This marks our 25th consecutive quarter of average daily sales growth. Growth in the quarter was driven by strong demand across each of our end markets, higher average selling prices as we passed along rising material costs, execution across our sales initiatives to drive market share gains, and acquisitions. Inflation remained elevated and supply chain challenges persisted through the first quarter but our resilience and execution delivered remarkable results. We achieved another quarter of solid gross margin rate expansion relative to the prior year. When combined with a 52% net sales growth and cost leverage, we delivered over 101% adjusted EBITDA growth for the quarter. Market demand continues to be strong and broad based across the country. We are encouraged by the strength in residential land and lot development despite rising interest rates and inflationary pressures across the residential building sector. We saw nonresidential construction activity accelerate through the first quarter and municipal repair and replacement activity remained very strong. Bidding activity, backlog, and pace of orders all trended favorably through the first quarter giving us confidence in demand through the end of the fiscal year. Product shortages persisted through the first quarter continue to impact lead times and material costs. We continue to benefit from our size and scale by maintaining industry leading product availability, a testament to our value proposition. We are focused on maintaining the right inventory to stay efficient while also ensuring we have access to products to support our customers and their…

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Turning to Page 9, I'll begin by covering our first quarter operating results. Net sales in the first quarter were nearly $1.6 billion, an increase of approximately 52% over the prior year. The increase was driven by higher average selling prices as we passed along rising material costs, strong volume growth, and acquisitions. Our sales benefited from volume growth across each of our end markets. We've continued to see strength in residential land and lot development, non-residential construction activity continues to accelerate, and municipal repair and replacement activity has remained strong. Net sales for pipe, valves, fittings and storm drainage products benefited from strong end market growth, acquisitions, and higher average selling prices across most product lines. Our fire protection products benefited from a strong commercial construction market and higher average selling prices. Our meter products grew at a slower pace primarily due to shortage of semiconductor chips, which are components of certain smart meter products. We've seen sequential improvement in meter volume since last quarter and expect that trend to continue for the remainder of the year. We outperformed our end markets and drove above-market growth in the first quarter due to our industry-leading product availability and the execution of our product, customer, and geographic expansion initiatives. Roughly three fourth of our net sales was due to higher average selling prices driven by our team's ability to pass along rising material costs. We continue to experience inflationary costs from our suppliers, and the conflict in Ukraine has further challenged our supply chain in recent months. Nearly two thirds of the pick iron imported by the U.S. last year came from Russia and Ukraine, but the conflict has reduced shipments and created a global shortage of steel and iron. When coupled with rising fuel…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today comes from Matthew Bouley of Barclays. Matthew, over to you.

Elizabeth Langan

Analyst

Hi, this is Elizabeth Langan on for Matt today. Congratulations on the results. I was wondering if you could touch on -- could you give us an idea of where you're seeing notable strength within your respective end markets and what's kind of driving those expectations higher? And if you have seen a change within any of those markets given the uncertainty in the macro?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Elizabeth, this is Steve. So thanks for your question. What we've seen through first quarter have really been robust demand across all of these end markets. Municipal has continued to be very strong. I think we look at the demand in that area, it has continued to build for the last several quarters and is continuing to build. The bid activity looks very strong as well too in municipal. Non-residential has been strong, continues to really drive a lot of our fire protection sales. And then residential, we've been watching it closely. Obviously, we're concerned about what happens with interest rates and all the other dynamics that seem to be impacting residential. But land development continues to be really, really strong through the quarter and continues to be as we look forward. So I would say that we just saw all three end markets really performing extremely well as we got through first quarter and continue to see a lot of bid activity across all of them at this point.

Elizabeth Langan

Analyst

Thank you. That's really helpful. I was also hoping you could touch on how you're thinking about maintaining your market share gains that have been driven by your access to products? And do you expect those to be sticky or do you think that you'll see some reversion with the loosening of the supply chain?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes, what we're seeing right now is supply chain just continues to be tight, tighter than we anticipated. The capacity for a lot of our manufacturers, they've been challenged to try and increase it in any type of short or medium-term time frame. So as that continues to be tight, we continue to get preferred access to product that many of our smaller competitors aren't able to get. We continue to serve them at a high level. And I think that's been the important part as long as we can continue to get that opportunity to serve some of these newer customers that we've gained by getting access to product, we'll continue to support them when supply chains ease. So we're hopeful that we'll be able to continue that momentum even after the supply chain starts to ease at some point in the future.

Operator

Operator

Okay, does that answer your question.

Elizabeth Langan

Analyst

Yes, thank you.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thanks Elizabeth.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research. Nigel, over to you.

William Vranka

Analyst

This is Will Vranka on for Nigel.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Good morning Will.

William Vranka

Analyst

I was just wondering -- good morning. I was just wondering if you could talk about the price cost contribution of the quarter and how you see it rolling through the rest of the year?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Will. Thanks for the question. As you saw, gross margins for the quarter were strong, up about 200 basis points, really benefiting mostly from price cost spread. I'd say that's about, call it, 170 so basis points of that with another 30 basis points being contributed from accretive acquisitions and synergies there. So we continue to benefit both with this favorable pricing environment, buying ahead of inventory, and then the gross margin initiatives that we've had in place and continue to see good results there.

William Vranka

Analyst

Got it. And I was also wondering if you could provide any color on how you're thinking about the seasonality of earnings this year and maybe any color on the second quarter setup?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes. Well, typically, what we see going into the second quarter would be a nice ramp up sequentially due to volume. I'd say we also continue to see pricing accelerate. So I would expect sequential growth at the top line in Q2. Typically, we'd see that kind of level off in Q3 and then Q4 typically sequentially would be down from those Q2 and Q3 levels primarily due to the colder regions that we have slowing down their construction season. So expect, I'd say, a return to kind of normal seasonality levels here through the remainder of 2022.

William Vranka

Analyst

Got it, that’s very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Will. Our next question today comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Joe, over to you.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

Thanks, good morning everybody and congrats to a nice start to the year.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thanks. Appreciate that Joe.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

I guess my first question is just around -- I don't think I heard you guys say it, but the pricing commentary, what are you guys expecting for pricing as part of like your growth equation for the year? And then my follow-on to that is how can we be thinking about pricing in the second half of the year because, obviously, the comps get a lot tougher?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Yes, on the pricing, I'd say within our guide, we were anticipating in our previous range that we gave pricing in kind of the mid-single-digit range. We've increased that now to I'd say mid-teens for the full year, which as you look at the back half, assumes I'd say kind of low to mid-single-digit pricing in the back half. So we've got a, I'd say, starting to stabilize and then potentially some of the commodities coming back later in the year and just trying to reflect some of the uncertainty on the commodity side potentially later this year.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

Got it. And then, Mark, I guess what does that kind of mean for the gross margin equation then for the year because obviously, you guys are forecasting or embedding in the guide flat gross margin, but obviously, a great start to the first quarter, so is there -- does that necessarily mean some pressure to gross margins naturally from those dynamics?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes, Joe, as we've talked about, we do expect that we're benefiting from about 50 to 100 basis points of some temporary margin benefit just given the environment we're in. Nothing really changing there in terms of our expectation. We've had now, I'd say, several quarters in kind of this 26%, north of 26% margin. So I think that 50 to 100 kind of coming off this run rate is -- that's how we're thinking about it. So if those prices potentially stabilize in the remainder of the year, I expect that temporary benefit to subside and then really seeing that kind of back into that level that we were at in the prior year as we finish off 2022 [ph].

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And if I could sneak one more in here, Steve, for you, just the -- you mentioned that the infra bill, you're not expecting to see much of a benefit from that until 2023, some of it being supply chain oriented. Can you just maybe provide a little bit more color on what's maybe holding up some of the spending and then also is there a risk at all that doesn't get spent or this is really truly just deferral into 2023?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Joe, it's really looking right now that some of these projects are being tabled that would utilize these funds just simply because of the time constraints and the limited availability of product. So in the municipal world, some of the larger diameter projects that are out there, the lead time for some of these pipe -- the pipe products and things like that can go out, in some cases, almost 52 weeks. So we believe until that capacity starts freeing up a little bit that we're just not going to see a whole lot of these funds being applied. Now if things do change, if we start seeing maybe some residential start to soften in the back half of the year, I think that may be able to pull in some of this municipal demand and offset some of that. That's kind of how we're looking at it right now. But we're just seeing very robust pipelines today for our backlog and everything in municipal that these funds are just not needed at this point to continue the momentum that we've been seeing for the last several quarters.

Joseph Ritchie

Analyst

Okay, that’s great to hear. Thank you both.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thanks Joe.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Joe. We'll now move on to our next question, which comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Jamie, over to you.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Nice quarter. I guess a couple of questions. One, just the operating cash flow. You lowered your conversion rate to 65% to 85% -- sorry, to 65% to 80% of adjusted EBITDA versus I think last quarter, you were talking about 85% to 100%. So if you could give some color there, is it just inventory? And then my second question, back to pricing again. Can you just talk to what you expect or what you're seeing on pricing on PVC or other commodities and whether these moderate in the back half of the year and just pricing on non-commodities as well? Thanks.

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Thanks, Jamie. On operating cash flow, it's really more of a factor on our growth that we expect now for the full year. We were expecting growth in the higher single-digit. We've raised that now for the full year up into the high teens. So to support that kind of growth rate, we think the working capital need is higher. So that's what we have reduced our guide for on the operating cash flow. I'd say our investments in inventory, we expect we'll maybe hold on to those a little bit longer, but more of it is really related to the growth that we anticipate. On the pricing side, really, we've continued to see accelerating pricing across the commodities through the first quarter. Non-commodities as well, we've seen price increases there. In our guide, we're assuming those prices kind of hold for the non-commodities and commodities, we do have those coming back a little bit as we get through the end of the year. And again, that's primarily reflecting some of the uncertainty in the macroeconomic backdrop if we do see some demand slowdown, which we haven't seen. But if we do see that, we've got that kind of reflected on the pricing through the remainder of the year.

Jamie Cook

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Jamie. We'll take our next question today from Mike Dahl of RBC Capital Markets. Mike, over to you.

Michael Dahl

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just on -- a couple on the M&A side. I think you framed out M&A as contributing 5% to sales for the first quarter. Can you kind of give us a thought on just given what you've already closed or signed year-to-date, what's embedded in the full year contribution for that?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yeah, hey Mike. Yes, about 5% for the quarter, priced similar in the second quarter. We'll start to anniversary some of our larger acquisitions that we did last year, primarily the Pacific Pipe and L&M Bag and Supply. So with the new ones that we've closed, we've got, I'd say, in the low to mid-single-digit range in the back half of the year. And that doesn't include Earthsavers that is not closed at this point.

Michael Dahl

Analyst

And just quickly on that, is there any parameters you can give us to think about on -- I know you said three branches and full service, but relative sizing of Earthsavers?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes, I'd say we've provided in the past the average size branch kind of in the $8 million to $10 million range. So with three branches, you're probably looking somewhere in that area.

Michael Dahl

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And my follow-up question, sticking on M&A. Obviously, there's been a lot of capital markets disruption in the public markets. You're seeing rising funding costs and things like that. But just wondering what you're seeing in terms of M&A, whether some of this disruption has either shake and loose some assets, is it affecting competition for assets, how are you seeing incremental changes in your M&A pipeline today?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes. Mike, what I'd share with you is that our pipeline has been pretty robust, certainly going into the first part of this year and continues to be so. When we've seen this economic disruption and some of the uncertainty that's happened in the past, that really lends itself very well to the type of acquisition targets that we would typically be targeting in this and bring some of them to the table. So we look at it as almost a favorable situation in our industry that when you start getting a lot of uncertainty along those lines, it does really help aid the addition into the pipeline of some different assets in that area. But if you look at where we're -- the acquisitions that we've done, they've been just really good bolt-on acquisitions whether they've been a Waterworks branch in New York or in Colorado. You couple that with the consolidation we have underway in the erosion control and geosynthetics, just a very robust pipeline right now of opportunities out there for us to continue to consolidate. And we think any type of economic disruption probably helps us in some regard along those lines.

Michael Dahl

Analyst

Okay, that’s helpful. Thanks Steve, thanks Mark.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Mike. Our next question today comes from Patrick Baumann of J.P. Morgan. Patrick, please go ahead.

Patrick Baumann

Analyst

Alright, good morning. Can you give a little more granularity on the type of pricing you expect for commodity pipe this year that's embedded within that mid-teens pricing we expect for the total company? And then along those lines, in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, what stepped up incrementally in price because the price contribution, it seems like improved a bit sequentially. Just curious, is that the commodity pipe or is that the other products that you sell that's other than the commodity pipe, any color on that would be helpful?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes, Patrick. First, I guess on the Q4 to Q1. We did see an acceleration of pricing sequentially. I would say PVC was a factor there. I wouldn’t say it is rising as fast as some of the other product lines that we have had. PVC has had a good run. So, I wouldn’t say that was necessarily the largest contributor in terms of the level of the increase. But we have seen it really across a lot of the other non-commodities, which have taken maybe a little bit longer to get price than the commodities. So we have started to see a benefit coming out of there. In terms of the guide going forward on commodity versus non-commodity, I'd say we haven't really broken it out that way. But embedded in our guide for the kind of full year, mid-teens pricing does assume some of those commodities come back down. I think the non-commodities we really view as much stickier for the long term and continue to believe there's probably even some more opportunity there with some of those products as those suppliers look to try to recoup some of their costs that they've incurred. So that's probably the best way to think about that right now.

Patrick Baumann

Analyst

Okay. And then on the comments you made around no benefits from infrastructure yet in kind of demand that you're seeing, and then subsequent comments that if there was moderation in project activity in your other markets, non-res or resi that you could maybe see a step-up in the ability to serve that. I'm just curious, has there been demand you're seeing from a muni perspective so far that you haven't been able to serve because it's like you're just too busy with private -- like the resi and the non-res stuff, is that why you're making that comment, I'm just curious if you could give more color around that comment?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes. More of the comment is really geared towards municipal projects that are out there where a lot of the municipalities are just holding off at this point from further rehabilitation of their lines, just given the challenges associated with getting access to product, pipes, not pipes. So there's a lot of different diameters of pipe that have different characteristics that some may be more available than others. And for some of these projects, particularly projects with larger diameter pipe, the lead times right now are prohibited from a lot of these municipalities from really aggressively pursuing some of these projects at this point. So we are seeing some of that happen. But for the most part, it's not a trade-off of which end market are we serving in this more so than are we seeing some delay in some of these projects pending better availability of product and shorter lead times so they can execute them in a more consistent, predictable manner with more predictable pricing.

Patrick Baumann

Analyst

Understood, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Patrick. We'll now move on to our question from Keith Hughes of Truist. Keith, the floor is yours.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Thank you. Most of my questions have been answered. But I guess you've talked about product availability issues continuing. Can you list off the top couple of problem trials in terms of getting supply for your customers?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Well, there's -- I want to give strong specific product detail or supplier details. But I think when you're looking at some of the demand that's out there, particularly for some of the basics like pipe, the lead times have extended out. Fittings have extended out. Those are obviously critical to being able to complete a lot of these projects. You get into some smaller components that may be out there in terms of restraints and gaskets and things like that, that can sometimes slow a project down. Those are primarily what we're seeing, and we're trying to balance a lot of that across all the country right now to fulfill projects along those lines. Meters have been a big one as well, too. So we're still continuing to be challenged with getting access to all of the meters that we need for a lot of the smart meter installations that we have where they're still struggling to get the proper chips and everything they need to produce at the quantity that we need. So those are a couple of the areas, Keith, that we're seeing some of those constraints still.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

It was not just commodity areas you're seeing in some of the more engineered products, there's problems there as well?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes, correct. Yes, correct. Yes, absolutely.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Keith. Our next question comes from David Manthey of Baird. David, over to you.

David Manthey

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and Steve, you mentioned land development trends. What are the other key data sets that are on your dashboard today?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

We're watching that closely. We're obviously watching our bid activity in a lot of these areas, David. So when we're looking at whether it's a municipal bid or a residential land development, we watch and the pace at which these are happening, we're watching the execution of these projects. Obviously, time to execute a lot of these projects has been prolonged in some cases, given labor shortages and supply constraints. So we watch a lot of those aspects to make sure that projects are moving along. We've seen our backlog age a little bit as we try and fulfill and execute the fulfillment through these. So those are a couple of the key things that are on my daily and weekly look at and how I assess what's happening out there. And as we've gone through that, we've been able to relook at how we're looking at the rest of the year, how we're looking at pricing. And I think you've seen that reflected in the guidance that we have provided and the confidence that we have and what we're seeing in our end markets at this point.

David Manthey

Analyst

Okay. And I'm not a big fan of comparing every cycle to the GFC. But HTS Waterworks was down in 2007, 2008 and 2009 more than 50% peak to trough. And that may have been tax rolls and unstable muni market and things like that. But can you discuss the mix of the business and the overall economic environment today versus the predecessor company in that environment, which was clearly unusual?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes. Certainly, if we go back to the Great Recession and what happened back in that time frame, our business was nearly 50% residential at that time. We focused a lot of our effort and resources on that. Since that time frame, one of the things that we were challenged with, it's about the time when Mark and I came on board to really try and reposition the business for long-term sustainable growth. And we built out a number of new opportunities within municipal. We started aggressively going after smart meters, going after other products to better serve that municipal sector. And now you're seeing a much different shift with the way our business is positioned on how residential plays into it. So in addition, what I would say is back then as well, too, we were also going through an integration of two different sizable integrations of two players, National Waterworks and Hugh Supply Waterworks. So there was a lot -- there was some internal consolidation that was happening as well, which just lent itself to some of the challenges that we faced. Now what we have seen is we've really positioned ourselves in so many different ways from a product standpoint, from a market standpoint, from a sales standpoint to better drive a lot of the adoption on that -- of those and to continue that sustainable growth. Secondly, even during that downturn, we generated an immense amount of cash that we were able to use to reinvest back in the business. And that's been one of the cornerstones of how we've really endured through a lot of these different economic cycles as between our ability to adjust our SG&A and adjust our investments and how cash thins off, and we look at some type of downturn. Does that help at all, David?

David Manthey

Analyst

It does. Yes, it's very good. Thanks a lot Steve.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you David. We'll take our next question from Anthony Pettinari of Citigroup. Anthony, please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, this is Ashher [ph] coming on for Anthony. I think you pointed to strong demand in residential, but I think on your last call, you talked expecting about demand from residential end markets to sort of decelerate from low double-digit growth to sort of mid-single digit, high single-digit growth in 2022, is that still the case?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes, Ashher, the way to think about it is we have really strong demand last year so especially as we got later into the Q3 and Q4. So going up against those comps, I'd say we expected a lower growth rate in terms of residential demand, but we're still seeing the strength there and lot of development, just not at the rate coming off of kind of double-digit increases that we saw last year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great, thanks. And then just as a quick follow-up, just on your comments around product availability. With some of these projects, these municipal projects on hold as product availability remains tight, is there a risk that the sort of IIJA funds don't even flow through meaningfully in 2023 as sort of like product availability challenges persist throughout the year?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

There's a chance, I guess, that could happen. But I would say, given the demand that we've seen and the desire to be able to do a lot of these projects, I think you're going to see those funds start flowing through in 2023. I think it will replace a lot of the self-funding that's happened with a lot of the municipals, a lot of the bond markets, and the bond funding that has happened with some of the existing projects. So we anticipate it will be utilized, and that demand and momentum will continue into 2023.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great, that’s very helpful. I will turn it over.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Ashher. We'll take our next question today from Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research Group. Kathryn, over to you.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst

Hi, thank you for taking my questions today. Focusing on inflation outlook and on inventory; first, how much of the raised outlook is driven by volumes versus pricing and putting some year-over-year perspective on both of those metrics? And then the second on really more on the inventory side. Given the shift from a just-in-time suggesting Keith’s strategy in a post-COVID world. How are you managing inventories going forward, some more color on fill rates today versus year-ago period would be helpful? And why bring this up is simply because even though inventories carry a greater value overall in a post-COVID world, we're starting to see some companies that are getting a little over their skews in terms of inventory. So any color in terms of how you plan on managing inventories effectively, so you also don't get over your skews? Thank you.

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Alright, thanks Kathryn, it's Mark. I'll take the inflation question first. On the -- in terms of the raise on the guidance, I would tell you most of that is pricing. Like we said, we saw a lot of that accelerate and continue to accelerate through Q1. So that top line raise, I'd say, is primarily pricing. And in terms of the full year on that, I'd say it's in kind of the mid-teens that we expect, and that's at a lower rate than what we had in the first quarter, obviously, as we continue to anniversary some of those inflationary metrics that we had in 2021. So we expect that rate of acceleration would slow down throughout 2022. Steve, do you want to take the inventory?

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Sure. So Kathryn, you talked a little bit about just-in-time and just-in-case inventory. One of the things I'd share with you that we watch closely is so much of our business is project-based. And so we're looking at bringing in inventory. The majority of that inventory is essentially allocated to a specific project for the most part. We do, do some speculative buy and some items that obviously would be stocked for ready-to-serve type inventory. Those tend to be very transferable across our network in different branches. So now it is something, obviously, we watch and watch closely to make sure that our inventory doesn't get out of balance with what we're seeing, both with our backlog and our bidding activity. So we're very conscientious of that. As you saw in the last several quarters, we've been able to invest in inventory and show a real strong return. And we predicate a lot of that based on being able to understand what's coming at us in terms of these projects that we're yet to fulfill that are in our backlog and what the bidding activity looks like in these end markets. So we do watch it closely. We're obviously very aware of some of the challenges that particularly some of the retailers have gone through with writing down inventory, etcetera. But all of our inventory is either allocated or fungible to other projects across our network to be able to be utilized along those lines.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then in terms of what visibility you have for volumes, which is really more, say, backlogs, but the projects that are upcoming, what type of -- or what types of changes are you seeing in terms of type of projects, how has that changed today versus a year ago and even from the start of this year? Thank you.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

From a year ago, I think probably the one area we're seeing some continued growth in is certainly in non-residential construction and commercial construction. So we're seeing our fire protection product pull-through have been a lot stronger as we started this year. That was an area that was recovering after COVID, and we're starting to see some strength in that area, which has been encouraging. Residential and municipal have just been pretty steady and stable for the most part from what we've seen compared to last year.

Kathryn Thompson

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thank you Kathryn.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Kathryn. We have our last question today from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Andrew, please go ahead.

David Ridley-Lane

Analyst

Thank you. I think -- this is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. Mark, I just wanted to clarify something that you said earlier. So last year, you got a 50 to 100 basis points gross margin benefit from sell-through of lower cost inventory. Is your expectation that, that is flat for this full fiscal year?

Mark Witkowski

Analyst

Yes. So the way I would think about that is that 50 to 100 basis points would be off of what our margin rate has been over the last, I'd say, three quarters, which has been in the kind of low 26% range. And when you apply that for the remainder of the year, you end up with gross margin rates that are about flat with 2021.

David Ridley-Lane

Analyst

Got it. And then the other question, have you seen -- I absolutely hear you on the strength of the pipeline and so forth. Have you seen any indicator weakening, like maybe the time from bidding to project start or anything happening? Thank you.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Yes, no, thanks for the question. Really, we have not seen any indicators at this point that there's any softness. And we continue to talk to our suppliers, our customers, look at all of our internal data that we've seen. And really nothing at this point that points to any kind of a slowdown in those times.

David Ridley-Lane

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Andrew. That was our final question today. So I'd like to hand back to Steve for any closing remarks.

Steve LeClair

Analyst

Thank you all again for joining us today. It's a pleasure to have you on, and we hope you're doing well. We are extremely pleased with our first quarter performance, continue to focus on the controllable areas of our business. While there are many external factors that continue to impact the global economic backdrop, we remain confident in our ability to deliver strong results to our stakeholders in 2022 and beyond. We are committed to providing our customers with local knowledge, local experience, and local service nationwide. Thank you for your interest in Core & Main. Operator, that concludes our call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Steve. This concludes the call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.