Earnings Labs

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2015

$47.18

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources Q2 2015 Conference Call. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, Thursday, August 6, 2015 at 9 o'clock a.m. Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Doug Proll, Executive Vice President of Canadian Natural Resources. Please go ahead, Mr. Proll.

Douglas A. Proll - Executive Vice-President

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining our second quarter 2015 conference call. Today, we will review the financial and operating results and including providing an update of our ongoing projects and operations. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our President; and Corey Bieber, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to refer you to the comments regarding forward-looking information contained in our press release, and also note that all amounts are in Canadian dollars, and production and reserves are expressed as before royalties unless otherwise stated. I would like to make a few comments before turning the call over to Steve and Corey. In response to volatile and sharply changing commodity prices, we have increased our focus on reducing our cost structures both operating and capital, while maintaining safety and environmental standards and ensuring that our ability to be nimble in allocating capital is enhanced. This focus includes not only immediate cost savings, but also implementing changes to our processes that will last through commodity price cycles. This strategy has resulted in significant savings to-date, which is apparent in our first half 2015 operating results. At Canadian Natural, we have a proven, effective, value-driven strategy. We delivered cash flow from operations of almost $2.9 billion or $2.63 per share in the first half of this year, albeit down from the first half of 2014 due to lower commodity prices. We continue to execute on our capital programs within our available cash flow. We focus on safe, effective, efficient, and environmentally-responsible operations resulting in reliable operating performance across our diverse asset base and providing strong cost control management. Canadian Natural is committed to new technology and development and sustainable environmentally-responsible operations. We have a large, well-balanced portfolio of assets with significant exposure to light and heavy…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Phil Gresh with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Hey. Good morning. The first question is just around the capital budget. Appreciate all the additional color on 2015. I guess I was hoping maybe you could give us perhaps some initial thoughts on what 2016 could look like given, number one, the projects that are underway, and number two, kind of the macro environment right now and maybe it's framing kind of a minimum or a maximum, or just some general thoughts. Thanks. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Thanks for that question and I'll give you the answer that we had said last call. As you know, here in Alberta, there is a royalty review that will be going on. There's also a greenhouse gas review going on. So for us, to make any kind of estimates on 2016 until that review is completed, we know what the royalty is going to be. And if there's going to be any greenhouse charters, if there are going to be any increases over the increase we have today, we can't make any kind of projection what 2016 will look like. That being said, I think we will still be committed to getting Horizon completed. And we are seeing significant cost reductions. And I think we'll be able to see when we go to 2016 that our capital costs to complete the remainder of the work at Horizon will be less than we originally anticipated. We're working through that right now, but I think there could be a drop in cost that way. Other than that, we really can't give you any other commitment. And I think you'll probably see more drilling in Côte d'Ivoire. But other than that, we have to wait and see how the world shakes out.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Yeah. Understood. Maybe just could you tell us what Horizon would be for next year at this point, given that it's locked in? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: It's not totally locked-in yet. So we're still working on the cost reduction. So we'll wait until we come with the budget. And at that time, we'll give you a better color.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. And on Horizon, a clarification question, the reduced operating cost guidance, is that factoring – is that on an adjusted basis or is that on an unadjusted basis? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: That's on an unadjusted basis.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Got it. Okay. And as we look at the long-term trajectory, you mentioned the $25 to $27 target. The performance has been very strong year-to-date. Would you say that, if there's an underlying base level, that could actually be lower than the $25 to $27? I realize it's early for that question, but the base levels continue to come in below. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah. I think that's a very good question and a little too early to commit. I think sort of the bias would be to be lower. We're seeing very good efficiencies, very good effectiveness. We're getting good utilization and run times. And we expect when we get on to Phase 2 and 3 that reliability will actually go up from where we are today. So, all those things are positive as you go forward. But we are bringing on new sets of equipment, and so we'll have to see how that all works as we get there. But right now, I'd say that bias would be to be lower rather than higher.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. Fair enough. Last one is just maybe you could talk about what the demand feels like out there for the royalty lands in light of the recent transaction that was done and your general degree of patience around this in terms of monetizing the opportunity. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Yeah. As you know, we're very patient. We're looking here to maximize value for shareholders. So, sometimes being patient pays off. And we're doing that. I would say my view is the demand is still very, very strong, if not stronger than it has been. And so there's lots of people knocking on our door. So demand is there.

Phil M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Neil S. Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Good morning. Neil S. Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co.: So, as we think about where you are in the capital spending cycle a couple of years from now, the company should be generating a sizable amount of free cash flow. So, with that in mind and framing that, just wanted your perspective on dividend growth and how you think about dividend growth over the next couple of years. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Thanks, Neil. That's a very good question. We get asked this quite a bit. And really what – the answer has been the same. We try to balance the utilization of that cash flow and how we allocate that cash flow. So we balance the cash flow between resource development, our returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, opportunistic acquisitions, and balance sheet strength. And we'll try to take a balanced approach, as we have always. So we'll look at that as we go forward. If you look at it, the one resource development, I think obviously, we think we have pretty optimal capital program concerning the commodity price we're in today. As commodity prices go up, we'll be able to allocate more capital, but we still have additional cash flow to allocate then. So we're not going to see that taking up a lot of the unutilized cash flow. We'll come back to dividends and share buybacks. But opportunistic acquisition is another use for that cash flow and we're not averse to doing acquisitions and we're good at it. That being said, we don't see any gaps…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. I mean, quick ones for me, but maybe just as a follow-up on Horizon costs. Steve, I think in the past you guys talked about 100,000 of flowing as a capital intensity. Would that still have been the baseline to which you're measuring the new costs you're seeing? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: The baseline is below 100,000 barrels a day, what we set. And we're seeing that we may be able to get a bit lower than that as we go forward.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. So, Steve, how much is it below 100,000? Is it a lot below 100,000 or is it? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: We're looking in sort of the – I'd say the 90,000 to 95,000 barrels.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Okay. So, that'll be the base. Okay. That's helpful. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: And remember, remember, Greg, we are building normally, we're building a mining operation, extraction operation and a fully upgraded thing. So, that's the 34-degree API oil.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right. Okay. Thanks for that. And the second question is just around the 4,000 barrels a day shut-in. We know it's primary heavy. Can you give us just an idea where that was? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: It's scattered throughout Northeastern Alberta, around the Lloydminster and Bonnyville area.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Okay. Got it. And the last question is just around your Western Canadian gas production. How should we think about that into next year? I mean, you obviously didn't drill a lot of wells in the second quarter period but you probably drilled more gas wells than I expected. But how should we think about decline rates and so on, and what the game plan is with gas into 2016? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think, Greg, we're going to wait until we see what the royalty system is going to be and what the greenhouse gas system will be before we set our budget for 2016.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Also, we have some great wells to drill in BC, Septimus, and other areas in BC that are liquids-rich that can add a lot of production at relatively low cost. I know you're not asking this question. I expect you might ask it. We're seeing significant cost reductions. At Septimus, our completion costs are actually down 40% from where we were in 2014. So we're driving innovation, cost reduction. So development of BC liquids-rich Montney gas looks pretty good.

Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Your line is open.

Menno Hulshof - TD Securities

Analyst · Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Your line is open

Thanks and good morning. Just to go back to the four year-to-date CapEx cuts. How much of the $3.1 billion would be related to improving capital efficiencies versus cuts to flexible capital? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: I think the way to look at it is, of the $3.1 billion, the first $2.4 billion was largely deferrals. And then the next, say, $300 million was about half deferrals and the rest have all been cost reductions, assets and productivity, and some reduction in the rates that contractors charge us and just better effectiveness and great scoping.

Menno Hulshof - TD Securities

Analyst · Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks. And then, just to follow-up on Greg's question on shut-ins. Do you have any other production shut-in outside of the heavies? And given pricing, can we expect that number to grow into the end of the year? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: On the heavy oil side, Menno, we don't have any more shut-in and I don't expect we'll have any more shut-in for the rest of the year at this price level. As far as other shut-ins, nothing really shut in other than the shut-in gas because of the transportation issues with TCPL with doing that outage work on the line, which has affected the whole industry in Northwestern Alberta and in BC.

Menno Hulshof - TD Securities

Analyst · Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks, Steve. That's it for me.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin with Société Générale. Your line is open.

John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Steve. Maybe you addressed this and I missed. But with Horizon, you extended the time that you were doing planned maintenance. What is necessary now? What did you find that caused you to make a more protracted turnaround there? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: Thanks, John. So what we did part of the turnaround was some of the – or the outage we moved into the spring from the fall. There's some work that has to be done, check pressure, vessel valves, stuff to make sure that they're compliant, you've got to do those on time. So we moved those ahead. We also took that opportunity to change the trays in the fractionator tower because by having more optimal trays, we expected to get better production, which we have. And we went in there because the fractionator tower, as you know, was designed for 250,000 barrels a day. We had to build up a coke in the bottom trays that we hadn't anticipated. It hasn't affected the production of the frac tower yet, but it would have if we hadn't gone in there. And that coke, as you can imagine, is fairly hard. And it took us a long time to get it out of there. Basically, we had to put guys in there with jackhammers to do it.

John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. I just had never seen the phrase before. I was wondering what it was. You're one of the few E&Ps that's generating free cash flow. What are your thoughts on the M&A now? Would you ever, as I've asked you before, go south of the 49th parallel or go to the U.S.? Steve W. Laut - President & Non-Independent Director: So, John, it's going to be the same answer. I know you asked the question. You're maybe hoping I'll answer it differently at least. But as you know, we don't have any gaps in our portfolio and we don't see any gaps. So what we're looking at is only the things that are very opportunistic, that fit with us that we can see that we can add value right away. So, right now, we don't see any of that and it's probably too early to be doing any of that anyway. So, at this point in time, we don't anticipate much out there.

John P. Herrlin - SG Americas Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would turn the call back over to our presenters.

Douglas A. Proll - Executive Vice-President

Management

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending our conference call. Canadian Natural has a very strong and diverse asset base, a complementary balance of production and a strong well-developed plan for the systematic development of this asset base. We do concentrate on safe, efficient, reliable operations and a strong financial position supported by readily available liquid resources. And finally, Canadian Natural is responding to lower commodity prices by focusing on reducing cost structures and implementing changes to process this to ensure these changes are long lasting. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you again and we look forward to our third quarter conference call in early November.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.