Albert White
Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is now open.
Yes, I think one of the problems -- the biggest problem with the U.S. market has been the rebate activity. When rebates really shot up by all of us, you had people buying a year's supply of lenses in order to get those big rebates. And a year's supply of lenses could be 15 months' or 16 months' worth of actual wearing, right, because people don't necessarily wear their lenses every single day. So, you had a lot of lenses kind of move into the market, move on people's shelves and so forth. So, I think that's part of it. The other thing about the U.S. market is you don't get really wear growth. I mean -- and I'm talking about the number of people in contact lenses. So, we are seeing wearer growth around the world. There is -- there are new wearers coming into contact lenses, and that's fantastic. But that's not part of the U.S. market. So, I kind of agree with you. Like, I've been a little disappointed in the U.S. market growth or the Americas, hoping it would have been a little bit stronger. I think personally, CooperVision will do a little bit better in the back half of the year, so I feel good about that. But I think the U.S. market may end up at the end of the day being more of a 4% or 5% kind of grower than what you're going to see Asia-Pac and some regions that are stronger. If you look historically, if you kind of go back a little bit, you talk about recessions and market softness, I mean, the market's been growing north of 5% for a while, but if you go back to like -- I mean 2008 -- I've pulled some stats, as a matter fact, so I happen to have them handy. 2008, the contact lens market grew 6%, and then we move kind of into the recession. In 2009, the market overall grew 3%. And then in 2010, it bounced back up to 6%. So we're pretty recessionary-resistant. A lot of that is because of the trade-up and so forth you see, but it's also tied to the fact that there's global growth. So we're seeing wearers come into the market around the world. Outside of the U.S., you're seeing good growth in torics and multifocals as people are "fit" more correctly. The conversion to dailies and daily silicone hydrogel helps and so forth. So, we're pretty recession-resistant. And I mean even if you look at 2009, again, it's a pretty bad market back then. The contact lens market grew 3%, and we grew 5%.