Earnings Labs

Traeger, Inc. (COOK)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 16, 2023

$41.50

-4.49%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Traeger Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Megan and I'll be your moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to pass the conference over to Nick Bacchus with Traeger. Nick, please go ahead.

Nick Bacchus

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Traeger's call to discuss its fourth quarter 2022 results, which were released this afternoon and can be found on our website at investors.traeger.com. I'm Nick Bacchus, Vice President of Investor Relations at Traeger. With me on the call today are Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer; and Dom Blosil, our Chief Financial Officer. Before I get started, I want to remind everyone that management's remarks in this call may contain forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations and are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. We encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 once filed and our other SEC filings for a discussion of these factors and uncertainties, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website. You should not take undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise them for any new information. This call will also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful supplemental measures including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin. The most comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures contained herein to such GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investors.traeger.com. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andrus, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst

Thanks, Nick. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings call. Today, I will discuss our fourth quarter results and provide an update on our strategic priorities as well as our outlook for 2023. I will then turn the call over to Dom to discuss our quarterly financial performance and to provide further details on our fiscal 2023 guidance. 2022 was a challenging year for Traeger. After two years of outsized growth, the dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns away from big ticket grillable goods to travel and leisure, along with lower consumer confidence caused by inflation and geopolitical turmoil, led to unprecedented pressure on demand in the grill category. In the face of a deteriorating backdrop, we took swift and decisive action during the year to position Traeger for enhanced financial flexibility and to lower costs. I am pleased with our team's execution of our near-term tactical priorities and I believe we have made demonstrable progress, positioning us to successfully navigate what likely will be a continued volatile environment in 2023 and to emerge a more efficient company. It is important to note that we feel strongly that the current environment does not impact our long-term opportunity to significantly grow the Traeger brand globally. Our brand is healthier than ever and despite a tough backdrop in 2022, we successfully launched our new Timberline grill, drew up a brand awareness to an all-time high, saw meaningful growth in social media engagement, drove an industry-leading Net Promoter Score and realized strong growth in our MEATER business. We ended 2022 with fourth quarter results that were better than anticipated, which allowed us to exceed our annual guidance. Fourth quarter sales were $138 million, putting full year revenue $16 million higher than the upper end of our guidance range while fourth quarter adjusted…

Dom Blosil

Analyst

Thanks, Jeremy, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I will review our fourth quarter performance, before providing an update on our outlook for fiscal year 2023. Fourth quarter revenue declined 21% to $138 million. Grill revenue declined 52% to $48 million. Grill revenue was negatively impacted by lower unit volume as our retail partners destocked in an effort to lower end channel inventories. This decline was partially offset by higher average selling prices. Consumable revenues were $24 million, down 7% to prior year, due to lower pellet volumes offset by increased volume of food consumables. Accessories revenue increased 36% to $65 million driven by strong growth at MEATER. Fourth quarter revenues were ahead of our expectations, which allowed us to exceed the high end of our full year guidance range by $16 million. Upside was driven by better-than-expected revenue growth at MEATER, stronger replenishment sales in our grill business, as our holiday promotions drove improved sell-through, as well as better-than-expected sales in our digital channel. Geographically, North American revenues were down 22%, while Rest of World revenues were down 14%. Gross profit for the fourth quarter decreased to $48 million from $65 million in 2021. Gross profit margin was 34.5% down 250 basis points to 2021. Excluding $600,000 of costs related to restructuring actions, gross margin would have been 34.9%. The decline in gross margin was primarily driven by one, higher logistics costs, due to deleverage, and increased freight costs, which resulted in 530 basis points of margin pressure; two, a true-up related to our warranty reserve, which negatively impacted gross margin by 130 basis points; and three, restructuring costs of 40 basis points. These pressures were offset by: one, pricing and mix benefit of 230 basis points; two, 110 basis points of favorability related to MEATER, which generated a higher…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO. Your line is now open.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Thanks. Hey guys. Good afternoon. Jeremy, with Flatrock, you've now introduced a propane product, a pretty big deal. Any general thoughts on product expansion from here? And then Dom, can you just speak to the increased logistics and warehousing costs? How should we think about those going forward? And then maybe can you just remind us the margin differential between grills, consumables and accessories. Thanks guys.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst

Hey, Simeon. So I would start by saying, the wood pellet grill continues to be the center of our universe. That is -- we have a meaningful advantage there from both a brand and a product perspective and a product development capability perspective. As we look at the space and we think about what the Traeger cooking experience really might be we believe that not only we've seen a trend in Flatrock grill cooking, -- excuse me, but we think it's a great complement to a wood pellet grill. Wood pellet grill is low and slow, it is fired by wood pellets, it's convection cooking and a flat top or a griddle is -- it's hot and fast. And we believe cooking either the same meal across both products or cooking different types of foods just offers more brand flexibility -- cooking flexibility. And we did a lot of research before we got in the category on not only what that product might mean to a Traeger consumers cooking experience, but really what are the opportunities to innovate and bring a better experience to market. Interestingly, there really hasn't been any notable pushback on expanding not only to new category, but a new fuel source. My expectation is that we will be very focused going forward. Again, most of our innovation around wood pellet grills and the associated cooking experience, but the Flatrock really is a great accessory to a Traeger. I would just add, return from a trade show this week of one of our largest customers had hundreds, actually north of 1,000 retail managers in attendance. And the Flatrock has been very well received. We're early innings. We launched it a month ago. But we clearly -- we came at it from a constrained -- a channel constrained environment just wanted to ensure that as we launch something new outside of our core category that it turns and it's well received. And I think anecdotally that is certainly the case, although, it's too early to speak to sell through. The energy on social was high at launch and in talking to dozens of store managers who brought it in, they really like what they're seeing thus far.

Dom Blosil

Analyst

And I think jumping into your second question, I mean, it's really kind of a simple mix between what is largely -- what has largely been the biggest driver of gross margin erosion which is inbound transportation. There's still a long tail to that that we're working through as rates improve. So that was one key component. The other is just deleverage on the fixed cost structure within cost of sales, mainly warehousing that's largely fixed. And so when volumes come down that puts pressure on gross margin percentage. I would just note or add that, although, in 2022, and to a certain extent in the first half of 2023 inbound transportation will continue to be a driver of gross margin erosion. It's an improving picture over the course of 2023, as the capitalized higher costs baked into inventory for historical inbound transportation rates that we've paid for as procured by historical containers that bleeds through inventory will start to capture those improvements based on the improvements we're seeing in the spot prices in the back half of 2023.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Awesome. Thank you. And then, Dom, anything on just the mix generally margin differential between Grills Consumables and Accessories?

Dom Blosil

Analyst

In terms of margin nothing noteworthy. I mean, again, I think the biggest driver is -- stems from grill like the grill side of our category mix. Otherwise, I think, margin structure is fairly balanced and sort of consistent or stable within Consumables and Accessories and in particular MEATER has actually been a driver of expansion in gross margin and when you look at the fee, in Q4 part of that is a function of outperformance on the MEATER side specific to gross margin.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Great, sounds great. Guys, best of luck for the year.

Dom Blosil

Analyst

Thanks, Simeon

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird. Your line is now open.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

Hey. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, just I appreciate the thought on the year not expecting the macro to get you better. What is -- how do you think about the P&L if demand or sales through is actually tougher in the back half of the year than it is in the first half either because, the consumer gets a lot weaker you'll start to cycle some of the promo activity that maybe helped in the back part of this year. Just trying to think about how -- or your view on your ability to deliver the EBITDA in the event that maybe sales through is less than you think in the back half of the year? That's my first question.

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

Yeah. It's a great one. And it's something that we're definitely considering as we stress test our internal view of -- or forecast over the four quarters of 2023. And I think it's really a formula that we've applied to the last couple of years which is a real focus on leading indicators that could suggest a weakness of consumer or a shift in demand. And so, I think at the end of the day what we'll do is, we'll watch fairly closely, between now and the end of Q2. The way we built our operating plan for 2023 takes that into consideration as well. And so, effectively what we've done is we've said, let's be more conservative in how we pace certain critical initiatives and/or initiatives that will impact outer years and we want to make in this year but let's maybe hold on that until we have better line of sight into that specific picture around consumer health and any macro hiccups that may emerge as we track through the first half of this year. And so what that allows us to do is stay reactive and nimble to those trends before we get ahead of ourselves from a spend standpoint. And so that allows for some cushion and we'll roll that forward to the extent that there's a downward trend or a negative picture emerging, as we track through Q2 and when we see a disruption from a demand standpoint in Q2, in particular, which is a great leading indicator then for replenishment in the back half of the year. And so that's probably the biggest piece that I think we're managing and is top of mind for this team. But certainly to the extent that we need to react in other areas, we have levers to do that and constantly manage a dynamic sort of risk and opportunities component to how we forecast this business weekly and monthly. And we know exactly which levers we can pull if we need to manage that risk in the back half of the year.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

I would just add one quick thing to that Peter, which is we were more promotional last year than we typically are. And we use promotions thoughtfully both in terms of the level of promotional activity as well as where we promoted and which SKUs in an effort to really use them to drive inventory levels down. And our desire is to be less promotional. That's always our disposition from a brand perspective and we've built a plan that contemplates a more normal promotional cadence but it's something where we have flexibility to the extent that demand doesn't trend to plan. We certainly – we have experienced being opportunistic and working collaboratively with our retailers where necessary.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

No, that's helpful color. Thank. I guess related to that maybe thoughts on – I mean you mentioned the liquidity at the end of the quarter. Just how you're planning leverage liquidity your – not just any latest updates on covenants things like that. How does your plan envision those trending? And then my follow-up would be around real usage. You guys have the connected grills, a lot of data. What have you seen in terms of just the usage of grills that are out there in the marketplace? Thank you.

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

Yes. So I think we spoke to our list of priorities I don't know in Q3 Q4 last year, right? It all starts with liquidity. And we've been hyper focused on liquidity over the last 2.5 quarters and that will continue through the remainder of the year. And we're actually feeling much better about our liquidity position. And so I think from a liquidity standpoint Q1 will be the trough. We saw a nice improvement in liquidity from Q3 to Q4 based on active management of working capital, using promotion as a lever to clear inventory and draw down on inventory, just driving more efficiency top line as well as the promotion that drove out performance from a top line standpoint and that carries forward into this year, right? So we'll continue to actively manage working capital and we'll see a nice drawdown on inventory between now and let's say, Q3 which will be a nice a tailwind from a cash flow standpoint. We'll stay disciplined to OpEx. All of those different components of liquidity that are important and we'll continue to stay focused on those, but we're feeling better about the trend and believe that although Q1 is, sort of, the low watermark we'll stay above a healthy level through the remainder of the year. So we can in essence check that box. But obviously we're staying focused on it in the event that something changes. On leverage, I would say that as of today we do not -- we really don't anticipate having an issue with our ability to maintain compliance with our covenants. We're clearly trending in leverage levels that are uncomfortable, but manageable. I'll just highlight a few nuances there that I think are particularly important as you think about this dynamic and what it means…

Peter Benedict

Analyst · Baird. Your line is now open.

That’s very helpful. Thanks so much for the perspective.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Brian Harbour

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Yes, thank you. Good afternoon guys. Maybe just to follow-up on those comments you were just making and specific to the consumables segment I assume that there's kind of been growth on the food side. And so therefore probably the pellet side has been down a little bit more. And so could you address -- is that mainly driven by just the new private label pellets that are in the market or has there been a change in kind of attach of your customers buying those pellets. What's kind of driven that side of it? And how do you think that will trend in 2023?

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Yes. Great question. And as a caveat the way we measure attach outside of the connected grill data that we gather is a sell-in metric. So, it's not perfect. But I think it gives us good directionality in terms of consumption of these consumables. And so your first statement is accurate. We have seen growth in the food consumables side of consumables. And that's partly a function of what Jeremy spoke to in his opening remarks around some load-in in grocery and then some nice demand for sauces, rubs, et cetera. On the pellet side, what we did know and I think what we saw over the course of the pandemic was a fairly dramatic spike in attach. And we've talked in the past that that's partially a function likely of consumers stocking up in 2020 due to scarcity as well as being nested at home and probably cooking more than they normally would. And so we knew that at some point consumables attach in particular pellets would normalize likely back to pre-pandemic levels which we're seeing. And so I would say that in terms of the consistency and/or steadiness of demand and consumption of pellets, it's trending roughly in line with what we've seen pre-pandemic. Say there has been a little bit of incremental pressure on that given the fact that what you mentioned earlier this large customer offering private label, which is eating into some sell-through just based on the cannibalization of our current offering there. We don't believe that's necessarily permanent. And so we have some strategies in place to try to offset some of that cannibalization and kind of bring that attach rate back up to what we believe is a normal level. But otherwise it's holding pretty steady. We're happy with what the attach rate looks like and it's actually providing nice stability from a revenue standpoint given that it's just this predictable recurring revenue stream independent of the fact that grill sales have been down. I think the last point I would make there is there always is a component of correlation between pellet sales and grill sales. And so when grill sales are down, you do expect to see some impact to pellet sales, only because there's an initial purchase of pellets when they buy a grill, right? And so that component moves correspondingly, but the embedded component tied to our installed base is holding pretty steady relative to pre-pandemic levels. So no surprises there.

Brian Harbour

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Okay. Got it. Thanks. And then maybe could you talk about the Accessories side as well. It sounds like adding MEATER to Home Depot doors was a significant driver of that. Was there anything else in terms of products or any sort of promotions? And I guess the same question would you expect that segment to grow in 2023 or perhaps not?

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Yeah. So I guess I'll answer that second question. I'll let Jeremy hit the first. But I think ultimately, we're not guiding to category level growth in 2023. But from an Accessories standpoint, it's segmented obviously between Traeger Accessories and MEATER. And MEATER has been a nice grower in this business. And you'll -- if you look at Accessories growth in Q4 for example of 2022 relative to say 2019 pre the acquisition of MEATER there's been a substantial increase or the CAGR is fairly robust, right? But independent of that we've actually seen growth on the Traeger Accessory side as well. And so I think we're really happy with kind of the portfolio of Accessories and how those are performing. And I'm particularly excited about the addition of MEATER and what that could mean as part of kind of our long-term growth algorithm in the future.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Yeah. I would add, we've got a great business. It's a great product. It's a phenomenal team. I was in our UK office about a month ago and continue to believe more in that opportunity and really the thesis behind why we acquired it. MEATER is mostly -- most of their revenue is digital in nature of e-commerce. And that hasn't changed much since we bought it. We are undoubtedly -- given our capabilities in traditional retail managing accounts from specialty up through large accounts such as Ace and Home Depot, we have a capability there that we're beginning to bring to bear. But it's early. And so most of MEATER's growth is really driven by the channels that it has been in for a number of years. And it's not really -- it's not yet driven by the synergies that we have in our retail footprint, but those are coming. And we've got a lot of confidence in our ability to bring that product to retail, the same way that we did a wood pellet grill innovation which is, it's premium, it's innovative. It requires training at retail. It requires education from retail associate all the way to consumer. So we think there's a lot to unlock still in front of us, but that's -- it's really not what's been driving the growth.

Brian Harbour

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Randy Konik with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Randy Konik

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess first on back -- just quickly back to the balance sheet. Just can you just remind us any kind of payments or anything you need to kind of get done in 2023? And any kind of availability under the existing credit facility just curious there. And then, I guess on the – I remember, when you guys announced your postponing near-shoring with Mexico, how do you think about when to reconsider or potentially reconsider Mexico once again? Is that something a couple of years away? Just curious there. And then just finally, on inventory, do you anticipate inventory growth matching up with sales growth by the second half of the year or more like the end of 2023? Thanks for the help guys.

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Yeah. So, first question was around any obligations or payments. The only kind of meaningful one is the payment of MEATER earn-out, right? So that's structured in a way such that, there's a component of 2021 that they're able to catch up in 2022. So they were able to achieve that. So that's one component of the payment. And so we've drawn partially down on our delayed draw facility, and which has subsequently expired in order to fund that payment, which would probably happen in around April time frame. So that's one. And then to your last question on inventory growth, I mean, I think what we expect in ultimately over the course of 2023 is that, it's growing or declining relative to the base, right? So I'd say that, it's sort of a moderate percent decrease in Q1, and then it's a fairly sizable double-digit decrease between Q2 and Q4. So it wouldn't necessarily track with inventory that makes sense, because again we're still sort of cleaning up the balances and driving to what we look at internally, which is sort of a days in inventory on a forward kind of three-month basis to ensure that we're covered over say a 90-day period, which we feel comfortable with, but nothing more, right? And we're not there yet. But we think by the – by Q3, we'll be in kind of that position where our inventory levels are at a point where we're comfortable with both the composition and the quantum of inventory. But you'll see ultimately, a fairly decent sized decrease year-over-year on a quarterly basis between Q2 and Q4.

Randy Konik

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Great. And just on the near-shoring at the Mexico – yeah, the Mexico production, say you perform? Sorry.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Yeah. So, yeah, the answer is we think near-shoring is absolutely a strategy long term not just in Mexico, but as we see our base of business grow both here in Europe, we will evaluate opportunities for more efficient sourcing closer to consumer, but certainly with cost and margin in mind. So next is something that, we continue to evaluate we have a very good base of sourcing currently between China and Vietnam, and as you know, container rates have declined meaningfully. So it takes some pressure on time, but we do believe sort of medium to long term that Mexico is a viable opportunity for us and it's something we continue to evaluate.

Randy Konik

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Great. Thanks, guys.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Thanks, Randy.

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Good afternoon, guys. I appreciate taking the question. I wanted to explore the topic of the ocean freight costs. I actually can't think of anyone that I research has been more negatively impacted from ocean freight. So, I was wondering if you could frame up two things. Number one, when you look back over the last two years, what you think the impact has been, maybe on a dollar basis or a gross margin basis. And then looking forward, how much recovery do you have from lower ocean freight costs baked into the 2023 outlook?

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Yes, good questions. I'd say, on the first one, I don't have kind of orders of magnitude in front of me, the kind of the dollar amount that ultimately put pressure on our business. I think, we've referenced numbers in the past that we can certainly share offline, if need be. But it's been fairly substantial, right? And I guess, if I were to recall back to Q4, when this really kicked in, I mean I think we alluded to like 800 or 900 basis points of impact, right? So, it's been fairly -- it's been a fairly meaningful, if not the biggest driver of gross margin erosion, over the last 18 months as you mentioned. I'd say that, going forward, what we're seeing is, again kind of this tale of two halves around gross margin where we're still locked in and/or have higher inbound transportation costs capitalized in our inventory. And so, we're still carrying a higher basis from that standpoint in our inventory. But as we work through those heavier levels and that bleeds off, we'll begin to capture these fairly I would say, favorable spot rates that have emerged. And in certain cases we're seeing spot trend back to kind of pre-pandemic levels. A slightly more complicated picture, because we did lock in some fixed component of our allocation of containers. And that was in an effort to hedge risk against the unknown of, can we even access or procure containers. There's a small percentage, but we do factor that into the kind of run rate over the course of 2023. But based on that mix, we don't expect to be necessarily paying at spot markets at least based on what we're seeing today, but they'll be dramatically better than what we've experienced over the last 18 months or so. And on the gross margin front, I mean we're not going to share specific numbers especially around the quarters. But if you look at our guidance range of 36% to 37%, you can bet that a large majority -- a majority of the gross margin expansion year-over-year, is tied to inbound transportation improving.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Okay. Yes, fair enough. Maybe we could talk more offline, because it seems like -- I'm guessing you're probably going to see continued benefits in 2024, that we want to think about. Maybe a separate question for you, would be on -- you feel good about sell-through at retail. I guess, simplistically is sell-through up year-on-year? And how are we thinking about sell-through year-on-year, in the context of your full year guidance for 2023.

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Yes. Good question. So I'd say, that in 2022, we weren't -- we were definitely comping slightly down, relative to the prior year. That I think peaked in Q3, but sequentially improved in Q4 in part due to our promotion or extended promotion at quality promotion. And I guess the only other layer I would add to that is even though there was a negative comp year-over-year, it was really not that dramatic, especially as you compare it to the decline in grill sales on a sell-in basis, right? And you can also see it in the market share data where Traeger was certainly down in kind of conjunction with a decline in the market, but it's fairly disconnected from what you're seeing in sell-through which just reinforces the point that this is more of a destocking issue than it is a demand issue. And I think that because our market share effectively held steady, we're sort of moving in accordance with the market and there's still a healthy demand for our brand all things considered. In terms of moving -- shifting forward to our outlook for 2023, I think the first thing I would say is, we're not necessarily forecasting industry growth, we want to remain cautious there, but we do hope and sort of have a belief that there will be a rebound of growth in '24 and beyond. And I think from a sell-through standpoint, we're being conservative here, but it will still be disconnected from first half of year performance on grills, which will continue to be impacted by destocking even though we believe that sell-through trends will hold fairly steady and we'll continue to signal nice demand from the consumer at least at retail.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Okay. That's helpful. I guess just to just clarify the sell-through holding steady. Is that just kind of you thinking about it sort of flattish year-on-year for the better part of 2023?

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

We're not guiding to sell through. I think what I would just say there is that, yes, I think steady is probably the word we want to use.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Okay. Fair enough. Thanks so much for the insights.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

Joe Feldman

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

Great. Thanks for taking the question guys. So I apologize, if I missed it with all the information you've given tonight. But with regard to the cost savings you said you've identified for 2023, I'm wondering, if you could share a little more color on maybe where that would be? And would it be to the same magnitude that we saw in 2022, that $20 million or maybe a little lower than that?

Dom Blosil

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

I won't speak to the specific magnitude. But there are a variety of areas that we've evaluated as part of our budgeting process for '23. And I think I'll just say that if you recall back to some of our comments in kind of Q3, Q4, there was a moment in time in the back half of last year, where we made swift actions via restructuring and kind of rightsizing capacity, unwinding the Mexico relationship et cetera that are baked into that kind of run rate $20 million, as well as some incremental actions we took that are probably more temporary in nature with the second layer being okay this helps kind of bridge between now and when we start to plan for 2023, which will give us the opportunity to further explore areas in a more deliberate way versus a reactive way to drive efficiency across the P&L and really across the entire operation. And so, if I want to give you some examples of things that we've evaluated and that we define as sort of core principles for how we're budgeting and defining our operating plan for the year, it's everything from kind of tightening gross to net dilution to how we rebalance capacity across the supply chain to ensure that capacity, whether it be on the manufacturing side or in other areas of the business is balanced with kind of the demand that we're seeing and forecasting. Two, just continued efforts on the gross margin side with a task force that's hyper focused on driving expansion opportunities, both near-term, long-term reshaping OpEx to ensure that it's moving more closely in line with our long-term financial model and for principles there. There's some delayed initiatives, I mentioned earlier where -- to the extent that we unlock incremental SG&A…

Joe Feldman

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

That's really helpful. Thank you so much, Dom. And maybe just one more follow-up, I could ask. With regard to the consumer demand, which I know we all understand the environment, especially in big ticket. But I was just curious like as you talk to kind of some of your retail partners, maybe some of the more specialty oriented ones where -- are they seeing any kind of green shoots or maybe it's like a good response to some of the new grill lines that you've just put out, or anything that gets you a little excited about that maybe things could come back towards the second half of this year?

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

Yes, absolutely. I would say, first of all, the -- 12 months ago when we started to feel demand start to soften, it took a while to unpack what was driving that. There are a number of sort of negative forces. There were a number of negative forces on the consumer then as well as there are now. I think as the consumer weakens there is a bit of a tailwind in terms of consumers in pent-up travel needs, which we certainly felt last year. We feel that trend start to decline a little bit, but again in a tough environment. I think what we see that we like first of all is that, the sell-through is more predictable. First eight, nine months of last year, it bounced around a lot -- really, really hard to forecast the business. We feel better about the predictability of sell-through. We launched two new products last month and we were really excited about the Timberline that we launched 12 months ago last spring. But clearly we were launching something with a lot of energy, but at a very high price point. And so the ability to with the Ironwood cascade down some of those features technology sort of ID language to a more affordable price point down to $2,000, albeit accessible but still premium, the response has been very positive to that growth. Again we're four weeks into it. Flatrock, as I said in my prepared remarks, more social engagement, more energy around that launch than any launch that we've done. And again premium to the griddle category at $900, but certainly accessible from our consumer perspective. And so I would say that we like the energy we see there. Our retailers -- notably our specialty retailers are really excited about it. And…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A session. I will now pass the conference back over to the management team for closing remarks.

Jeremy Andrus

Analyst

Thanks so much. We appreciate your time and look forward to being in touch. Bye.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the Traeger fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. I hope you have a wonderful day.