Earnings Labs

Traeger, Inc. (COOK)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 6, 2025

$41.91

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending the Traeger, Inc. fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Cameron, and I will be your moderator for today. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please follow the instructions provided. I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Nick Bacchus, Vice President of Investor Relations with Traeger, Inc.

Nick Bacchus

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Traeger, Inc.'s call to discuss its fourth quarter 2024 results, which were released this afternoon and can be found on our website at investors.traeger.com. I am Nick Bacchus, Vice President of Investor Relations at Traeger, Inc. With me on the call today are Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer, and Dom Blosil, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations and views of future events, including, but not limited to, outlook as to our anticipated first quarter 2025 and full year 2025 results. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. I encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, once filed and our other filings for a discussion of these factors and uncertainties, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website. You should not take undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which we speak to only as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise them for any new information. This call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss, adjusted net income or loss per share, adjusted EBITDA margin and net debt, which we believe are useful supplemental measures. The most comparable GAAP financial measures, and reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures contained herein to such GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and investor presentation, which are available on the Investor Relations portions of our website at investors.traeger.com. Please note that our definition of these measures may differ from similarly titled metrics presented by other companies. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andrus, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger, Inc. Jeremy?

Jeremy Andrus

Management

Thanks, Nick, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start today's call with an overview of our fourth quarter and a recap of 2024, and then we will discuss our outlook for 2025 before turning the call over to Dom. I am pleased with our solid finish to the year in the fourth quarter. From a revenue perspective, we delivered 3% growth in the quarter with particular strength in our Grills business, which was up 30% as compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and our consumables business, which was up 25% compared to last year. We continue to see strong margin gains in the quarter with gross margin up 410 basis points compared to the prior year. This resulted in fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $18 million, up 41% from the fourth quarter of 2023, putting us above the high end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year. Our fourth quarter capped off a solid year for our company. Despite ongoing challenges in the macroeconomic backdrop, results for the year ended significantly better than we initially guided to. Importantly, we saw an inflection in our grill business in 2024 with grill revenues up 8% for the year, substantially better than our outlook coming into the year. This was driven by strong consumer reception, and our strategy to lean into promotions and peak selling periods contributed to market share gains. Notably, we were able to employ this strategy and drive sell-through while meaningfully growing our gross margin. Our initiatives to drive efficiencies in our supply chain and to improve our margin structure, in addition to lower transportation costs, drove a 540 basis point improvement in our gross margin for the year. This resulted in adjusted EBITDA growth of 34% in fiscal 2024. During the year, we also made significant…

Dom Blosil

Management

Thank you, Jeremy. I look forward to supporting a smooth transition. It has been a privilege to work alongside you and the incredible Traeger, Inc. team over the last eleven years. I am extremely proud of all we have accomplished together. Traeger, Inc. is a special brand with an exciting future ahead. Moving to our financial results for 2024, I am pleased with both our fourth quarter results and how Traeger, Inc. performed throughout 2024. We exceeded our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year despite persistent Meater challenges. In addition, our efforts over the past three years to improve profitability and strengthen the balance sheet have resulted in significant gross margin expansion, strong EBITDA growth, and sequentially lower balance sheet leverage as compared to 2023. I believe these efforts position the company to capitalize on an eventual industry recovery and unlock capacity to invest in initiatives that will catalyze future growth. For fiscal year 2024, gross margin expanded by 540 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 34% and ended 23% above the midpoint of our original guidance. Shifting to our fourth quarter results, fourth quarter revenues grew 3% to $169 million. Grill revenues were $78 million, up 30% year over year, driven by strong sell-through during the holiday promotional period, improved replenishment sales, and load-in of our new Woodridge series. Consumables revenues increased 25% to $31 million, supported by strong replenishment due to higher sell-through and new distribution at Walmart. Accessories revenues declined 24% to $60 million as negative sales growth at Meater was partially offset by increased sales of Traeger, Inc. branded accessories. By geography, North America revenues increased 11%, while rest of the world revenues declined by 39%. Fourth quarter gross margin was 40.9%, up 410 basis points year over year. The key drivers of margin expansion…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star followed by one. To remove your question, please press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, press star one. And as a reminder, if you are using your phone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking a question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. The first question is from the line of Anna Glaessgen with B. Riley. You may proceed.

Anna Glaessgen

Analyst

Hey. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I would like to start with the accessories business. I fully understand you guys are embedding a bit of softness here in 2025. I would like to expand a bit on whether you expect there to be an inflection at any point in the year, or would that be upside to guidance? Any thoughts there would be great.

Dom Blosil

Management

It's a good question. I mean, at this point, we are not providing detailed quarterly guidance, and certainly, we would not provide that on a category basis. I think the general theme is that we are conservatively forecasting Meater under the current circumstances and based on how the business performed in Q4 in particular, which is their biggest quarter. I think I would reaffirm our confidence in the brand and the disruptive product that they sell, as well as their leadership position in the space. This reinforces our conviction and our ability to pull levers over time and sort of course-correct on what we are seeing in the softness, in addition to the fact we have levers that currently remain to be either unlocked or exploited by way of retail expansion, for example, as we think about a growing opportunity to drive what is currently a highly B2C business into retail. So there are certainly opportunities ahead, but as of today, we believe it's prudent to manage our guidance with a degree of conservatism around the trends that we are seeing in Meater.

Anna Glaessgen

Analyst

Got it. And you noted, you know, one point of impact was elevated advertising spend around the election impact in Q4. Have you seen a normalization of return on ad spend as we've moved away from the election in Q1?

Dom Blosil

Management

I mean, I think at a macro level, that's right. Unfortunately, the proof points in Q1 for Meater are not indicative of the future in part because, as we've talked about in the past, they deliver 50% or more of their revenues in Q4. So any insights we may gather in Q1, especially around advertising spend and ROAS, may not be the best proxy for Q4. And so, certainly, we will take those learnings over the next couple of quarters to inform updates to how we think about the year for Meater. But as of right now, it's just a little bit early to suggest anything other than what we are planning in the business.

Anna Glaessgen

Analyst

Got it. And then just one more if I could. The commentary around Q1, is the decline largely related to expectations around Meater, or is that reflective of declines in the other segments as well?

Jeremy Andrus

Management

No. It's reflective of multiple segments. I think in part because as we consider the sort of impact on demand as a result of tariffs, the pacing related to that and the revenue recognition associated with that pacing is going to create some challenges in predicting quarter-to-quarter how the year sequences. And so what we are sort of sticking to right now from a guidance standpoint is we believe it's prudent to consider Q1 down on top line as well as EBITDA. And then we are just not in a position to share sequencing across quarters for the year just given the uncertainty in how tariffs will sort of influence the pacing between quarters.

Anna Glaessgen

Analyst

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity. You may proceed.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess first off, I'm curious about your view on the overall grill market in 2025. We've had three straight years of material decline. So what's your expectation for the industry overall? You've taken share the last couple of years. And, Jeremy, if you could just remind us where we are today, or I left it at 2019 levels. I think we're, like, 20% below, but just refresh my memory, please. Thank you.

Jeremy Andrus

Management

Yeah. Hey, Brian. So first of all, as we think about the last three years, the pace of decline from 2022 until last year, it certainly appears that we have found bottom. 2022 was an aggressive sort of mid-high teens decline, high single digits in 2023. And then last year, we believe that the industry was flat to slightly up. Our expectation for this year has been that grills will grow modestly flat to up 1% to 2%. Of course, that forecast is many days old now. And so there are... it's going to take some time to understand the impact of tariffs on this industry. Our expectation is that we will see price increases. And I think whereas we should be getting into a more normalized replacement cycle for grills, just given the massive pull of replacement since the pandemic and the units that were pulled forward, we would expect to see some modest growth. Well, of course, we are doing business in a highly dynamic environment. And we are tracking it. I think it's important to note that Traeger, Inc. did gain share in 2024. We had a nice acceleration, notably from a unit volume perspective. During the promotional period, but I'd say especially in the fourth quarter, I highlighted in my comments that Black Friday was one of the highest volume sales days in the Traeger, Inc. brand history. And so in terms of relative to 2019, we still believe we are down somewhat meaningfully from 2019. And we believe over the next 12 to 36 months that the industry grows, begins to catch up with pre-pandemic levels, and, of course, there's a macro backdrop that we are also being sensitive to as well.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. Secondly, you guys had a lot of success with the ProSeries 22 last year at that sub-$400 price point. It was on promotion. I'm curious. How are you going to attack that lower price point in 2025 that served you so well? I mean, I know the Woodridge looks like a great product, but it's definitely at that higher price point. So I'm curious about your thoughts there. Thanks.

Jeremy Andrus

Management

Yeah. So Woodridge certainly hits a price point, in a premium but accessible price point. We think it's very well positioned in the market from a value perspective. We did learn a lot about price point and access to a broader segment of consumers as we promoted the Pro 22 three times last year at $389. We had just an incredible response. It was a supply chain feat between our team and our retail partners to keep up with demand. But no question, the appetite for our brand beneath $500 was meaningful. And we have the ability to not only anniversary that this year but to ensure that we are fully in stock with our retailers. And we feel good about it. I think it really spoke to not only the demand for the brand but it spoke to the position of the brand. Where we promoted sub-$500, and there was a clear step function in volume in that price point. So we feel good about the learnings, and we expect to continue that this year. In the meantime, we also... I think if you compare the Pro 22 to the Woodridge, I think it allows us to access different customers. Very, very clear step up or trade-up story between the Pro 22 at $499 and the Woodridge, which is currently priced between $799 and $1599.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Great. And if I could just squeeze one last one in. Did you guys build any... I know inventories were up a decent amount in Q4. Did you build any inventory ahead of the inauguration in anticipation of tariffs given your China sourcing exposure?

Dom Blosil

Management

No. I mean, what I would say is in Q1, we've been focused on bringing in as much inventory as possible ahead of anticipatory tariffs. The increase in inventory at the end of the year is really tied more to the Woodridge launch and the fact that there's continued load-in taking place ahead of peak season, which is just normal seasonal inventory moves within this business as you think about launching new innovation. I think the overarching theme here is inventory levels on our balance sheet and in-channel continue to be well balanced, and we feel confident in those levels. And you also have to consider how much drawdown there's been over the last handful of years, and we're sort of back into a normal working capital cycle where you invest in sort of drawdown over the course of a season, but within a range we're now sort of comfortable with. So you look at DII's, for example, they fit within kind of our normal plan, and they're in a good spot.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird. You may proceed.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Hey, guys. This is Zach back on for Peter. Thanks for taking our question. Best wishes, Dom. Curious if you guys can quantify the benefit to Q4 grill revenue from the load-in of those Woodridge grills. And then just on the strength you guys are seeing during some of the holiday sale periods, it's been a couple of quarters now. Any changes to how you guys think about promotion either in 2025 or longer term?

Dom Blosil

Management

Yeah. So I don't know if we can quantify specifically what the load-in was. I think what I can say is that it's not just Woodridge load-in. We did build in some of this coming out of Q4 knowing that we would be delivering on our Woodridge load-in in Q4. It did exceed expectations, but some of that capacity was unlocked due to the fact that our core line of grills in the market exceeded expectations from a sell-through standpoint, on the back of what continues to be a very high-performing promotion. So again, I think there's a balance between the two. Certainly, there's an uplift because of load-in. That's just normal again as part of the ebbs and flows of innovation cycles. But I think the underlying theme and a key underpinning to the performance is certainly around sell-through as well, and the fact that also contributes to added replenishment.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Gotcha. That's helpful. And then you guys have made some nice progress on deleveraging the past couple of years. Curious if you've communicated a longer-term goal here, and then maybe how are you thinking about free cash flow this year relative to 2024 and maybe CapEx versus debt paydown within that? Thank you.

Dom Blosil

Management

Sure. On the leverage front, yeah, I think our long-term goal is to drive at or below three turns of leverage. I think we feel comfortable kind of within a range of two to three turns. You've clearly seen the progress we've made sequentially over the last couple of years, and that continues to be a main focus. We feel good with the progress we've made, but there's still some work to do to drive to those levels that we believe are appropriate and sustainable for our business. On the free cash flow side, I would say that one, we'd expect free cash flow in 2025 to be similar to, if not maybe slightly down compared to 2024. And that's really driven by the fact that there continues to be a need to invest in working capital. We're just in a new environment where, if you rewind to 2023, there was a massive drawdown in inventory that contributed meaningfully from a free cash flow standpoint in an abnormal way because we were cleaning up our balance sheet and in-channel inventory levels. Our working capital is now normalized, and so you'll see sort of investment/drawdown on a quarter-to-quarter basis. So I wouldn't expect anything out of the ordinary there in terms of a swing in one direction or another, save it's probably prudent to assume some degree of investment in working capital. That would be offset by CapEx. CapEx was sequentially down from 2023 to 2024. We think that it'll probably be flat to slightly down in 2025. We're sort of forecasting at the midpoint of our guidance similar profitability levers. So there really isn't a meaningful unlock there. So I think net-net, from a free cash flow standpoint, it should look similar to 2024, if not slightly down depending on where working capital lands for the year in your model. But, certainly, as we think about prioritization of excess free cash flow, we first and foremost consider debt paydown, in part in conjunction with the broader strategy of driving leverage down to that target goal in conjunction with EBITDA growth over time.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Dom. And then last one for Jeremy. You mentioned pursuing that large manufacturing partner in Vietnam as of last quarter. Just curious where those efforts stand today and maybe any insight into the timing there. Thanks, guys.

Jeremy Andrus

Management

Yeah. Sure. So I would say, first of all, we've been manufacturing... this is our second global manufacturing partner who has a footprint in Vietnam, going well. I was there about six weeks ago. And look, this is... fortunately, we have been working on some diversification of our sourcing base outside of China for a few years. We have some partners who have the ability to scale nicely. Supply chain doesn't move quickly, but we've been working on that, and we'll be in production, mass production with that partner in this quarter. And so, we have options, and we continue to develop those options. And I think we're trying to really balance a dynamic environment, ensuring that the sort of shifting sands have settled before we make reactive decisions. So we're sort of focused on both those things, but fortunately, we do have about 25% of our grill production has been in Vietnam, and we have the ability to scale that up.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Awesome. Thanks, all. Take care.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. You may proceed.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Hey. Thanks. Good afternoon. And, Dom, it's been great working with you. So wishing nothing but the best. I just think on Q1, I hate to ask a short-term question, but it seems like a super dynamic consumer environment right now. Maybe you could contextualize what you're seeing so far quarter-to-date with the negative revenue guide. Has there been, I guess, recent weakness in the last couple of weeks or anything that's more category-specific that you'd want to highlight?

Dom Blosil

Management

Yeah. I think what I would highlight is just pacing. Right? We've talked in the past about a shift to direct import, for example. When you think about the dynamics across the value chain, as a result of the tariff news, you're working with multiple parties along that value chain. It can dramatically influence the timing of revenue recognition. So this is really more information around the fact that we can't really forecast pacing from quarter to quarter. I think we have a good point of view, ex-tariffs, on how we think about the full year. That's what we've guided to. It's just hard right now to put a stake in the ground on a quarter knowing that there can be some fluidity in how orders are moved and recognized from a revenue standpoint. And that's really the main driver to the not guide, but kind of the qualitative points we made on the call around Q1 specifically.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay. I think that's an important distinction. So I guess interpreting that, have you seen any change in sell-through trends, or are those pretty steady and it's really just the timing issue?

Jeremy Andrus

Management

Yeah. Again, we don't speak intra-quarter to sell-through, even at a directional level. So I would just leave it at my previous comment. Appreciate the question, though.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. Let's talk about international. So rest of the world down 39%. I think last quarter, you called out Meater. I guess just get us up to speed on what's happening with international because I think that's a nice growth opportunity for you, but the numbers suggest otherwise.

Dom Blosil

Management

No. That's right. It really is a function of Meater. Meater does a significant portion of their business in the rest of the world. And so that just has an over-indexing influence on how we report the rest of the world. And so at the end of the day, it's just a function of the softness we're seeing in Meater, which is dragging the consolidated view on the rest of the world down.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay. Alright. Fair enough. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Megan Alexander

Analyst

Hi. Good evening. Thanks so much. Maybe just a couple of follow-ups from me. The first, Dom, I think you mentioned you're guiding to or in your guide is an expectation for low single-digit growth revenue, and I think you called out kind of some puts and takes. One of which was tough compares. And I was just wondering if you could elaborate on whether that's a shipment or POS comment. I understand the shipment compare is hard, but I thought that was kind of more related to lapping some dynamics in 2023. But at the same time, you did lean into promotions a bit more in 2024. So I just wanted to clarify kind of what exactly the tough compare is that you're referring to.

Dom Blosil

Management

In the guide. Correct?

Megan Alexander

Analyst

Yes. That was your question? Yes.

Dom Blosil

Management

Yeah. It's really two things. The first one is related to lapping what was an increased promotional approach to 2024. So we are lapping the promotions that benefited better growth specifically in grills over the course of 2024, especially in Q2 and Q4. So there is some lapping to that. We faced a slightly more challenging comp. And then the second element to that is just the Woodridge load-in. These are sort of one-time in nature before you enter into a more normal cycle of sell-through and replenishment. So that creates a slightly tougher comp in Q4 with respect to that load-in. So those are really the two main points.

Megan Alexander

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. And then on the direct import comment, I'm not... I won't ask about Q1 again, but I just want to make sure I understand exactly what you're seeing. Are you seeing less or fewer direct import orders from retailers than you have in previous years? I maybe would have thought you would be seeing more just given the fluidity of the tariff environment, and especially as we go into peak selling season. So is that kind of the read between the lines that retailers are pulling down direct import orders?

Dom Blosil

Management

No. I think, again, it's just a function of the timing of tariffs and how we think about what that means from a pricing dynamic and how you think about that within the context of the impact it could have on a direct import partner. And so, again, it's less about what we specifically know in the moment and more anticipatory in relation to what we don't know to ensure that we're not committing to something that could shift dramatically the next day because this is such a highly fluid environment, and the entire value chain and the associated partners we have across that value chain are reacting in kind as well. And so we just believe at the moment sharing full-year guidance is the right thing to do, and we believe we have good line of sight into the core business, ex-tariffs. Again, it's just very hard to establish precision quarter to quarter, DI being one component of that. Right? If you have DI orders at the end of the quarter, and there's something that dramatically shifts the timing of that order and the window shifts into the next quarter, the size of these orders can be very influential to a specific quarter. And that just exposes us to pacing that may or may not play out based on what we know today. So it's really not a comment on how we think about the full year ex-tariff and more the fact that there's just really a lack of certainty as to how these orders pace given the fact that we plan our business early in the year as we budget. And it's a combination of direct import and many other things. And as we strategize with our retail partners, it may dictate a different approach to how orders pace. Really, that's the main point that we're making here is it's an uncertainty surrounding revenue recognition or timing of orders as we work with our retail partners to strategize through this tariff uncertainty, and we can't really provide more certainty or precision than that.

Megan Alexander

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. That's clear and helpful.

Dom Blosil

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are currently no questions registered. So as a brief reminder, it is star one to ask a question. There are no additional questions waiting at this time. I would like to pass the conference back over to the management team for any closing remarks. Apologies, everyone. We have lost connection with the speaker line. Please stay on the line while we reconnect them. The call will resume shortly. Apologies, everyone. We have lost connection with the speaker line. Please stand by while I reconnect them. The call will resume shortly. Apologies, everyone. We have lost connection with the speaker line. Please stand by while we reconnect them. The call will resume shortly. Excuse me, everyone. Due to the disconnection, that will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation, and enjoy the rest of your day.