Ronald F. Clarke
Analyst · Ken Suchoski with Autonomous
Yes, that's it's a good question. So the way, I mean, I say this all the time, if you like businesses, you can plan, you should like our business, it's the nature of the model. And so what we do is we -- which we're about halfway through, we build things off of run rate. So we're staring here at October volumes and revenues in all of our businesses. And I think what I said is, hey, when you post $3.52 or $3.50, we multiply it and we go, okay, that sounds like $14, and we guided to a number we don't have in front of me, Chuck, that's $3.50-something for Q4 is a track stuff. So there's another one.
So hey, we start with the company is running earning $14 on an annualized basis now. Then we sit there and say, "Okay, we had sales record levels this year, of which, call it, 2/3 of that will be realized in 2022 so we can see what that number is." Then we have a bigger sales plan for 2022, probably 20% higher, and we look at what's in here there. I'm like, "hey, that looks good".
And then we look at the deals that I mentioned that are kind of on top of that, which I think I called out together, call it, $0.50 would be kind of my commitment on the stuff that we use capital for. So that's how we build the math. We take the run rate, we take this year, next year sales. We take added things like the accretion of deals, and that helps us basically target a number that we can get to. And we haven't planned a heck of a lot of COVID recovery. Obviously, it's -- we're just obviously 12 months this year. And so we've been pretty conservative so far and getting some of that back. We still have probably $100 million, $150 million that could literally come back a different day potentially. And so those are the components.
And what I was trying to say -- and the other one is the macro. Obviously, fuel prices are higher here in November than they were in January and seem to be holding. And so when you roll all that up, my message is it looks super early, but it looks like a really good number. And the reason I go through all that math is to get people longer than us who are in the company some insight into how they ought to think about it. Things could happen, but the company is pretty well positioned to put up an attractive growth number for next year.