Earnings Labs

Campbell Soup Company (CPB)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Fri, Sep 2, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Campbell Soup's Fourth Quarter 2011 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jennifer Driscoll, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please begin.

Jennifer Driscoll

Analyst

Thank you, Mary. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Campbell Soup Co.'s fourth quarter earnings call and webcast. With me here in New Jersey today are Denise Morrison, President and CEO; Craig Owen, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer; and Anthony DiSilvestro, Senior Vice President of Finance. Today, Denise will give an overview of our strategies and comment on our performance for the fourth quarter, followed by a detailed discussion from Craig that also includes our expectations for fiscal 2012. Following the wrap-up from Denise, all of us will take questions from analysts and investors. As usual, we've created slides to accompany our presentation. You will find the slides posted on our website this morning at investor.campbellsoupcompany.com. Please keep in mind that this call is open to members of the media who are participating in listen-only mode. As a reminder, our presentation today includes certain forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current expectations about future plans and performance. These forward-looking statements rely on a number of assumptions and estimates, which could be inaccurate and which inherently are subject to risks. Please refer to Slide 4 in our presentation or to the company's most recent Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings for a list of the factors that could cause our actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in any forward-looking statement. The results presented today have been adjusted for items impacting comparability, including those that the company announced in June, comprised of a series of initiatives to improve supply chain efficiency and to reduce overhead costs across the organization, as well as the charges related to the decision to close the company's Moscow office and exit the Russian market. As a result of these initiatives in the fourth quarter, we recorded pretax restructuring costs of…

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Campbell's fourth quarter earnings conference call for fiscal 2011. This is my first call as Campbell's CEO, and it's an honor and a privilege for me to represent Campbell's here today. I look forward to having an ongoing candid dialogue with all of you about our company, our performance and our progress on the growth strategies we outlined in July at our Analyst Day. In fiscal 2011, after a very weak first half, our focus was on improving our bottom line performance in the back half, while developing a strategic framework for Campbell's future growth. I'll share my observations on our performance in a moment. As I stated in our Analyst Day in July, our primary goal is to create value by driving sustainable, profitable net sales growth. To achieve that goal, we are pursuing 3 growth strategies. First, we will stabilize then profitably grow North America Soup and Simple Meals. Second, we will invest to expand our international presence. And third, we will continue to drive growth in healthy beverages and baked snacks. We are confident in and committed to these new growth strategies. We're heartened by the constructive feedback we've received from many of you regarding our plans, yet we also recognize, as you do, that the key to success is our ability to execute these strategies. We enter fiscal 2012 energized with a renewed focus on the consumer. While the economies in our primary markets have generally improved since the lows of the economic crisis, many consumers remained cautious. The recovery has not progressed at the pace or intensity consumers had hoped for. As a result, consumers remain careful about their purchases and feel the need for resourcefulness and vigilance. In this environment, it is critical for us…

B. Owens

Analyst

Thanks, Denise. Good morning. I'll spend the next few minutes stepping through our fourth quarter results and segment highlights, followed by a recap of fiscal year results. I'll conclude with a brief discussion of our fiscal 2012 guidance. For the quarter, we reported net sales of $1.6 billion, a 6% increase versus the prior year. Organic net sales increased by 1%. Excluding items impacting comparability, EBIT increased 24% in the quarter to $232 million. Earnings per share was $0.43 this quarter, up 30% compared with EPS in the fourth quarter of 2010. The net sales increase of 6% reflected a 5-point increase due to the currency translation, as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and euro have all strengthened. Excluding the favorable impact of currency, organic net sales increased by 1%. Pricing added 2 points, reduced promotional spending added one point and volume and mix subtracted 2 points. The price increase is primarily in our Pepperidge Farm and Arnott's businesses in reaction to a significant inflation in grain-based commodities. The variance in promotional spending reflects our strategy to reduce promotional spending in U.S. Soup in the back half of the year. And as expected, this has had a negative impact on volume. Our gross margin declined by 60 basis points from 40.4% to 39.8%. This decline was primarily due to cost inflation, the rate of which increased in the quarter, partly offset by productivity improvements, higher selling prices and reduced promotional spending. In the fourth quarter, marketing and selling expenses decreased by 11% to $196 million compared to $221 million in the prior year, primarily due to lower out-of-season advertising spending in U.S. Soup; reductions in Australia to reallocate more spending to trade in a very competitive retailer environment; and lower spending in Russia, given our decision to exit the market.…

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Thanks, Craig. Before taking your questions, I want to make some closing remarks. We improved our EBIT performance in the back half and began to make the transition in U.S. Soup towards rebalanced marketing mix. We continue to believe that improved innovation and brand building is the right thing to do for all of our businesses. We're confident in our strategies and plans. It's early and we're just beginning to implement these plans, but the company is energized by the new course we've chartered. We also recognize that changing our growth trajectory will take time and solid execution. Fiscal 2012 will be a transition year, as we work to create a different company at Campbell. Our primary goal is to create value by driving sustainable, profitable net sales growth, and that is our focus going forward. With that, we'll open up the call to your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Terry Bivens from JPMorgan. Jessica Schmidt - JP Morgan Chase & Co: This is Jessica Schmidt on for Terry. So we understand that there's not been a significant change to the overall soup category shelf space at Wal-Mart. And our question is, have you either gained or lost any portion of that shelf space at Wal-Mart or any other retailers?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We don't really comment on particular situations with retailers, so we...

B. Owens

Analyst

I would say overall that our shelf space is about flat versus prior year in the total grocery and discount channel.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Right.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Growe from Stifel, Nicolaus. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: I just wanted to ask you in relation to the guidance for next year, just on the percentage rate being down a little more, the percentage point less than we thought, what is that driven by? Are you trying to do more in the form of marketing? Or I heard you say about $100 million increase to marketing, I thought that was pretty consistent with what you said before. So what is it that led the growth rate down a little bit more for next year?

B. Owens

Analyst

Chris, the only thing that changed is the base year. The base year was a little bit higher. Part of that, over-delivery was a little bit lower spend on marketing, and we're just hanging on to the absolute guidance, if you will. I know we gave it in percentages, but if you look at the absolute numbers, we'd come back to what we said in July.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We just thought it was really important to maintain the integrity of that spending plan as we make 2012 a year of investment. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then I just want to ask about in ready-to-serve soup, first of all you've got a new product launch with Slow Kettle. Is a lot of that baked in -- is a lot of those shipments in this quarter?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

No. No, most of the shipments will happen in the first quarter. It just started shipping.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays Capital.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital

Analyst

I think in your recent meeting in Camden, you talked about being able to hope to hold gross margins roughly flat year-over-year, given some of the incremental pricing to help with the productivity for the inflation rates. Is that still generally what you're thinking about?

B. Owens

Analyst

Yes.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay. And then just on the way we should think about earnings, that sort of -- the trajectory, if you will, through the year, obviously the EPS sort of results last year in your fiscal first half were lower year-over-year. So those comps a bit easier, but I know you'd be ramping up spending, I would assume, in the first half as well. But I'm just trying to get a sense of how some of things play out, and if there's any dramatic difference in the way earnings flow throughout the year even if it's just directional.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Yes. Well, Andrew, we don't give quarterly guidance, and we intend to start spending against the $100 million investment starting in quarter one. But the pacing will, of course, vary by business. That said, we're not expecting the first half to be easy. We've had a list price increase and competitors have delayed following suit. So we expect that competitive pressures will continue. So we have to watch this very carefully.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Judy Hong from Goldman Sachs.

Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst

Denise, just on the competitive environment heading into the soup season, you've talked about the competitors slowing -- slow to reacting to pricing actions. But just in terms of some of the promotional activity that you're expecting from your competitors in the soup season going forward, and then how that could potentially affect some of the merchandise and support that you could be getting that relates to some of your innovation and your product launches?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We have not seen our branded competition move up base price in the marketplace. And we believe that with the latest round of pricing, we have the opportunity to offer the best price value across the category while still covering our inflation in our marketing investments. Our intention is to be competitive. And I don't know if you have anything to add to that, Craig?

B. Owens

Analyst

No, I think -- I don't want to get into the business of trying to project what the competitor's going to do. As Denise says, we're going to be competitive. We're going to manage our way through the year. But directionally and strategically, what we've done in the second half is the way that we're going to approach the business coming into 2012, which is with more emphasis on brand building and less emphasis on trade discount.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Analyst

Yes. I think it's important to recognize that even though we're pulling back a little bit on trade, we are still spending a significant amount of funds on both promotional spending as well as advertising.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Absolutely. But we're applying a whole new level of discipline to that spending.

Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then, Craig, is there a way to quantify in the fourth quarter how much the Russian closure lowered your marketing and selling expenses?

B. Owens

Analyst

Russia was worth about $0.01 in terms of savings from the closures and reduction in marketing spend.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Palmer from UBS.

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst

Just a question on that competitive pricing and price gaps. I'm sure you look at the effective price gaps for soup categories in detail, and not just versus private label for the condensed category but maybe even versus ready-to-serve soup, which has become more promotional. And maybe effectively, their prices have been coming down to condensed. Do you feel comfortable with the price gaps, where they are today? Do you think that, that is a problem for condensed, or is that more or less where you think is a sustainable gap?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Actually, with the price discounting we did last year on ready-to-serve soup, David, we actually saw a compression in the retail prices of ready-to-serve and condensed. So we believe that by focusing on the pricing and promotion strategy we have going forward with the discipline we're exercising, the consumer will continue to see a good array of value from Campbell's with condensed and ready-to-serve soup.

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst

And effectively, you think that, that price gap will widen a little bit this year with some of the pricing actions that are being taken? Is that the thought?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

It's early to tell. The price realization is just coming through on shelf. So we'll see where that ends up.

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst

And basically you think that the price gap, if there's any sort of price gap widening that might be helpful, might be that those 2 categories versus some sort of private label problem for condensed?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

I think there'll be consumers that will continue to shop the category for price. And then there'll be consumers that continue to shop the category for the benefits offered for the price paid. And we intend, through our marketing, to communicate our value proposition to the consumer in a much bigger way. We believe that's a healthier way to drive the usage of our brands.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ed Aaron from RBC Capital Markets.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Analyst

I actually want to ask about the Snack business. You had a pretty good quarter there, and that business has a fair amount of Australia exposure. And we've just heard some pretty awful things recently about that market in particular. I was just hoping you could maybe give us a little bit of context on what you're seeing over there.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

The Australian market, from an economic standpoint, is starting to become more under pressure. However, we believe that with the size of the business we have over there in the categories that we play and the customer relationships that we have, we'll continue to be responsive and continue the momentum that we've built in that marketplace. We're very bullish on Australia.

Edward Aaron - RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Analyst

And then one follow-up, if I could, on the U.S. Soup side. You had an inventory drawdown at the retail level this quarter, which I think is kind of the second fourth quarter in a row where you've talked about that. As we think about kind of the first and second quarters of the year, should we expect an add-back there? In other words, should your shipment growth exceed your consumption growth in the first quarter, for example, just to replenish what you didn't get in the fourth quarter?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

It's actually a bit hard to predict, Ed, because heavy discounting was so severe last year that inventory didn't necessarily fall where consumption occurred. And so we are watching that relationship very closely as we go into the season. But suffice it to say that it was really the discounting we did last year that made the inventory situation course correct in the fourth quarter for us this year.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Analyst

And just to add to that point, because of the fourth quarter, the small quarter for soup, this small change in inventory does have a meaningful impact on fourth quarter volumes. But when you look at the first and second quarters, it won't be material.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Akshay Jagdale from KeyBanc.

Adam Josephson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst

This is Adam Josephson in for Akshay. At your Analyst Day, Sean mentioned 3 factors that have negatively affected your soup business: fewer stock-up trips by heavy users, sodium reductions and an overemphasis on promotions. Obviously, the latter 2 factors are within your control. And you stated your intention to add back sodium to your soups and to focus more on branding. But if stock-up trips remain low or even declined from where they are today given the state of the economy, how would that affect your ability to return to growth in your soup business?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

I think that the fact that stock-up trips are down are not an excuse. They're just a different dynamic that we have to deal with. And the way we promote the product, the fact that we're funneling more investment into advertising of the product to generate usage, will work more with the consumer's pattern for buying. We believe that's the right way to proceed at this point.

Adam Josephson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst

Okay, and just one other one. Sean also pointed out that over the past few decades, the number of items in grocery stores has skyrocketed, and the number of options available to consumers for lunch and dinner is much higher than it ever has been. How does that situation change the way you approach marketing soup to the extent it does so at all? In other words, do you market it differently than you did 5, 10 years ago? And if so, how?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We're still in the throes of developing our advertising campaign for next year. But I do believe that everything we do now will be in the lens of a broader competitive set within Simple Meals, and recognizing that the consumer does make those choices and we want to compel them to choose Campbell.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Driscoll from Citi.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc

Analyst

So 2 questions, but they're just related to one another. It's on the quarter and then on fiscal '12 guidance. So on July 13, it seems that you had the guidance for $2 -- sorry, you've exceeded the guidance by about $0.05 and that's all from the fourth quarter beat from lower marketing investments. When you say that marketing is going to be up $100 million in fiscal '12, that's been on slightly lower base than what you were talking about on July 13. So the first question is, do I have this right? And then I think that translates on an adjusted EPS basis, when I plug my numbers in the percentages that you've given, guidance for '12 was about $0.02 better on both ends than it was on Analyst Day. Is that -- Craig, do I have these numbers right?

B. Owens

Analyst

Well, first of all, David, the $100 million number that you have is not all going to appear in the selling and marketing line. We talked about $100 million as incremental investment in innovation and marketing. So some of it, yes, will appear in marketing, some of it will appear in R&D and some of it will actually appear in other SG&A lines to support the infrastructure that we put in against innovation. I think the best way to think about the guidance change is really that we over-delivered the quarter, part of that was because we had lower marketing spend. But we also delivered at the gross margin line a little bit more strongly in a couple of the divisions. And as Denise said earlier, we've just made sure that we've taken the approach that for 2012, we're going to hold the plan that we have in place, which implies a little bit lower lift at EBIT and EPS on a percentage basis. But it's the same plan.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc

Analyst

Okay. But sometimes the percentages get confusing. The EPS numbers, by my calculation, are up $0.02 on the low end and high end for the 2012 number. And then I suppose if that absolute calculation is correct, I just -- since Analyst Day, basically, the economic situation in the U.S. has worsened, and it just gets interesting -- and maybe these are slightly minor numbers in the margin. I mean, if that's the answer that's fine. I'm just curious that at this early juncture in the year, you'd even make any changes to the absolute EPS guidance.

B. Owens

Analyst

Yes, I would have $0.01 instead of $0.02, but I think we're slicing it pretty thin here for a forecast for the full year when we're talking about the difference in $0.01. And again, the approach was not so much to agonize over the pennies as to just say were going to hold our plan for 2012 and how does that work out in terms of percentages.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from Crédit Suisse. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG: I just had a question about the transition away from trade spending. You said you're walking away from some unprofitable spending that you did in the first half of '11. One of your competitors has actually made a lot of progress on their margins by reducing trade spending. And I'm just wondering in your guidance here, you're guiding margins down about 200 basis points despite shifting away from these unprofitable programs. I'm just wondering if you could help me understand how that is, maybe it's just inflation or being put in another bucket. And maybe a follow-up.

B. Owens

Analyst

We do have, as we talked about in July, Rob, a pretty significant inflationary pressure in the numbers and then the assumption for next year. I mean, of course, we haven't given guidance on the gross margin line per se. So I think we also talked about, in operating expenses, that we've got a headwind related to the incentive pay that we hope to get back to pay out at targeted levels. So I think there's some combination of maybe inflation, above gross profit and SG&A pressure related to benefit costs and incentive costs below the gross profit line. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG: I guess another way of asking it, Craig, is if those programs were really unprofitable programs, would eliminating them provide any kind of a benefit in your margin outlook, or you don't think of it that way?

Anthony DiSilvestro

Analyst

This is Anthony. That would certainly be true for U.S. Soup. But you were talking about a fraction of the entire portfolio. And as Craig mentioned earlier, we do expect gross margins to be about flat in F12. But it's not flat for each of the businesses underneath that. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG: And then just a quick follow-up. You're switching to a brokerage sales model in some of your channels. Can you give a little more specifics about where you're making those switches? And maybe Denise, tell us how that's going so far?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Yes, we have shifted our retail coverage to a broker sales model. And in doing so, first of all, we already had a fairly large portion of our business in the broker sales model, so this is not a new relationship. And what we did was add it on the retail store coverage. Because what we found in our evaluation of our own direct retail force versus the broker is that they've made significant advances in technology, and the ability to cover many more stores at a lower cost with quality. And so we thought that this was a good time for us to advance that relationship, and we're very excited about the early days.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Just a couple of follow-up questions. Just the guidance, Craig, I guess in terms of -- just to be clear, does not include any effect of foreign exchange on either the top line or the EPS line, is that right?

B. Owens

Analyst

That's correct.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And that's because you're just not going to forecast it at this point or at least for us? Or because there's some EPS, or there is some FX benefit in the base year and -- I don't understand that.

B. Owens

Analyst

Yes. I hate to get in the business of forecasting foreign exchange for obvious reasons. The planning assumption is that it should be approximately neutral to the current year.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And just looking at it the way it helped last year, it might help the first half but be a drag in the second half, I guess that's a way of looking at it.

B. Owens

Analyst

That's a reasonable -- yes, that's a reasonable assumption.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Okay, and then just on the trade inventories, to the extent that they were -- it was a little bit of a drag in the fourth quarter, is it normal now? Is there anything unusual that we should be thinking about in terms of trade inventories in the first quarter or the first half?

B. Owens

Analyst

The unusual activity is all in the prior year. That's true for this fourth quarter, it would be, to certain extent, true as we cycle the first half of next year. But I think Anthony made a good point earlier of the impact, as a percentage of total sales, is much more significant in the fourth quarter than it is in the heavier sales seasons in the first and second quarter.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

In particular on U.S. Soup, and quarter 4 is the smallest quarter of the year.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Okay, and then finally, I guess, Denise, at this point, is it fair to say that you've sold in -- and this is probably more specific to your soup and sauces business. But just you've gotten a new plan in terms of how you're approaching promotions and how you're approaching stimulating the consumer. And basically you've sold those pricing plans with some volume expectation attached to them into the trade, and so it's not so much going to be a matter -- we won't be surprised by what the trial of the trade reacts to it. Now it's just really a matter of how the consumer reacts to it, is that right?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

That's correct. The sell-in of this new plan has gone well. And again, we continue to be competitive in the marketplace. But the consumer will ultimately be the decision-maker in the first half.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And just when will we start to see more of the advertising or the -- I guess, the pull begin to show up in the marketplace? I'm assuming it'll be like now. Is that right?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Yes. The marketing actually will start a little bit later in the season to hit the high peak volume part of the season.

B. Owens

Analyst

One of the reasons that you saw our marketing spend down so much in the fourth quarter is that we were cycling some fairly heavy out-of-season advertising last year. And our analysis would say that, that just didn't have very good payback. So while we're lifting marketing spend for 2012, we're also concentrating it more to the season.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. So as we're watching and we're trying to make -- just kind of monitor progress, and again, I know it's very early. Early on in this season, you're going to have the effect of higher price, but not all of the marketing, the full effect of the marketing poll in the market yet. So it might like look worse before it gets better. Is that the right way to think about it?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

I think it will build steam as the half unfolds.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson from Consumer Edge.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst

First question is just more strategic. I know you went over a lot of your international growth plans at your Analyst Day in July. But just in general, I was curious, we could see in the fourth quarter that sales or overall sales from your new global snacking business is obviously a higher percentage of your total company sales. And if we just think that, that category over the next 5 years should continue to outpace what we're seeing in soup, and the second pillar of your 3-category or your 3-tier growth process is international growth, could it be fair to assume that kind of over the longer term that growth internationally may assume some non-organic growth in global snacking? I mean, would you potentially look to enter new markets to find that growth that we've seen out of a number of other snacking businesses?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We've applied a lot of rigor to the international expansion plan. And as I said in July, we had identified some key markets. And there is a very tailored approach to those markets, depending upon what the market conditions are. But we feel with the broader described categories of simple meals, baked snacks and healthy beverages, we have a lot to work with in terms of faster-growing categories and faster-growing markets.

B. Owens

Analyst

External development is clearly a tool. You've seen us use it in the China market and the joint venture with Swire, and I think we're prepared to use it in other markets. But the heart of the thing is the strategy and the targeting of markets and categories that we think offer good growth opportunity.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And then just a quick follow-up. You commented earlier that over the longer term that you should see elasticity in soup start to normalize. And I'm just curious, is that also based on the assumption that overall soup consumption, at least in the U.S., should stabilize over the next year or 2?

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Yes, that was the assumption, that it would be U.S.-based.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays Capital.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Just a quick one on productivity. Craig, if you could just update us on -- of the incremental productivity that you expect this coming fiscal year. I know a piece of it is obviously the $60 million from the restructuring, and then you've got the ongoing piece that's incremental as well. So you can just give us a sense of what that is, and then if you expect it to flow through in the year in any disproportionate way or fairly evenly.

B. Owens

Analyst

Well, I guess I'll take it in 2 pieces. One is at cost of sales where, as you know, we've had a pretty long-established target of trying to offset roughly 3% of cost pressure. And while cost pressure's going to be somewhat higher than 3% this year, we still believe that we should be able to deliver at around that level. And that'll be driven by a pipeline of activity that we've got going in annual projects. But also, as we've talked about, our soup common platform work to simplify the soup-making process will contribute to that number also this year. Within expenses, the force reduction -- some of the force reduction, of course, is relevant to cost of sales. But the force reduction that we had, particularly the piece that was relevant to the administrative and headquarters expense, will be one of the factors as we are really beginning to try to pursue the same thinking in the management of expenses, i.e. in the planning period, can we offset about 3% of normalized inflation to the expense categories. And the negative headwind there would be the incentive cost and pension expense.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Got you. Okay. And then just I was curious is if you think about the logic of last year when you put out some of those trade promotions, which as you mentioned were not particularly effective in driving volume, I mean one could argue there was not a lot of elasticity to the upside from some of the trade spend. Do you think the logic works the other way around or not? Meaning, now that you pulled back on some of the less effective trade, they wouldn't necessarily be negative to the downside.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

We sure hope so, but we don't know. And so we've planned pretty realistically, and we will watch that dynamic very carefully.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Driscoll from Citi.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc

Analyst

Just make sure I understand the cost inflation guidance. So on Analyst Day, it was 3 to 3.50. And I think you gave a percentage number of 8% to 10% on today's call. Again, if I'm doing my math right, I think you're basically giving a little bit of an increase on the absolute dollar number of expected inflation. Do I have that correct?

B. Owens

Analyst

So the 8% to 10% is input costs, materials and packaging. That's what we said in July and that's still about right. That gives us a total cost inflation expectation, before our enabler program, of around 6 to 8. And as I just said, I think we can offset around 3 of that. So our expectation for total inflation and cost of sales, same as it was at the time that we talked in July, 3% to 5%.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc

Analyst

That would then suggest to me, given the fact that we've seen crop prices rallying here since Analyst Day, that you have most of fiscal '12 covered. Is that a [indiscernible] statement?

B. Owens

Analyst

Yes, I think the way to think about the crop price decline -- actually rallying for us, I guess, not rallying for the market. But anyway, the commodity price decline has helped us de-risk that forecast a little bit. We've had, at the time that we were talking, of course, we had some forward buying done. We've taken advantage of the decreases to do some more forward buying. We're not completely covered for the year, but we feel like we're getting closer to being more certain of those inflation projections.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

From an input costs inflation perspective, we are expecting increases in flour, diesel, edible oils and dairy.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc

Analyst

Okay. And I think, Craig, perhaps what I'm saying differently was that the softs have been up since then, but petroleum and diesel are down since then, so I understand your points.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

I didn't know if you had disclosed earlier just how much foreign exchange contributed to your earnings EPS, both for the fourth quarter and for fiscal '11.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Analyst

Yes, for the quarter it was about $0.03. And for the year, it's $0.05.

Bryan Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And then just one follow-up. I think I caught this at the beginning of the call, but the restating the quarters in terms of the new segments, we're going to have quarters for 2011 after you've reported -- when you report the first quarter? Is that ...

B. Owens

Analyst

That's right. When we report the first quarter, we'll give you the full year of quarters for 2011.

Denise Morrison

Analyst

Right.

Jennifer Driscoll

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, for your participation in our fourth quarter earnings webcast. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available beginning in approximately 2 hours. If you are a reporter and have questions, please call Anthony Sanzio. He can be reached at (856) 968-4390. Investors and analysts should contact me, Jennifer Driscoll, at (856) 342-6081. This concludes today's program, and you may now disconnect.