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Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 8, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Second Quarter 2017 Conference Call. At this time I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia, VP of IR. Please go ahead.

Randy Bhatia

Management

Good morning and welcome to Cheniere Energy's second quarter 2017 earnings conference call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call can be found on our website located at cheniere.com. Participating on today's call are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and Chief Executive Officer; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Michael Wortley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide two of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risk. In addition, we may include references to non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow and distributable cash flow per share. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix of the slide deck. As part of our discussion of Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P., or CQP, and Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings, or CQH. On this call, we do not intend to cover CQP or CQH's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. As shown on the agenda on slide three, Jack will begin with an overview of the quarter and give an update on construction and operating progress at our liquefaction projects. Following Jack's comments, we will hear from Anatol on our commercial activities; and then from Michael, who will review our financial results. I will now turn the call over to Jack.

Jack Fusco

Management

Thank you, Randy, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today for Cheniere's second quarter 2017 earnings call. We had a great quarter and our outlook on the full year has improved, so we have raised and tightened our full year guidance. Our LNG trains entering service earlier than expecting LNG production has ramped up faster than we forecast and our trains performance has been outstanding. Before we review the results and highlights I'd like to spend a minute looking back on the last year as the second quarter marks my first anniversary of joining Cheniere as President and CEO. And it was a year defined by unprecedented transition and achievement. In just one year's time, we have declared substantial completion on three LNG trains at Sabine Pass and we expect to do so on the fourth over the coming months. We have produced and we have exported approximately 150 cargos of LNG, we have raised over $10 billion of capital to strengthen our consolidated balance sheet and liquidity, achieved investment grade credit rating at SPL, became the largest physical consumer of natural gas in the United States on a daily basis, became one of the largest charters of LNG vessels in the world and have commenced 20 year contracts with three of our foundation customers. All while implementing significant organizational changes internally. In the last four quarters, we have generated over $1 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA. From the second quarter of 2016 through the second quarter of 2017 LNG shares are up approximately 30% and have outperformed energy industries, broad market industries and benchmark commodity prices over that period of time. We have turned into a proven LNG operator and have done so by and large without incident and have made it look easy. Certainly we…

Anatol Feygin

Management

Thanks, Jack and good morning, everyone. We're proud to start our full sale and purchase agreement tied to the substantial completion of our third train with KOGAS at the beginning of June. And as Jack mentioned subsequent to the end of the quarter, we commenced our SPAs from our second train with Gas Natural Fenosa and Shell. We look forward to a productive and mutually beneficial relationship with these foundation customers of Sabine Pass. Now please turn to slide nine, U.S. LNG continues to find buyers globally at a premium to European gas markets and they continues to demonstrate the value of its destination flexibility. By the end of the quarter, Sabine Pass volume had reached 24 countries, an increase of four since our last call, coming out of the peak demand months of the northern hemisphere winter, demand for U.S. LNG remain resilient and widespread with cargos from Sabine Pass sent to 16 countries in just the second quarter alone. Poland received its first cargo from our facility during the quarter, the delivery that came from our own asset optimization team based on Cheniere's equity and volumes. We're very pleased and honored to attend the ceremony with the Polish Prime Minister at the Swinoujscie Terminal in early June to mark the first arrival of U.S. LNG. The first cargo was also delivered to Taiwan during the quarter. There has been a slight uptick in the number of deliveries to Europe with the UK and Netherlands rounding up the list of new U.S. LNG importers. However deliveries to Europe remain less than 15% of overall deliveries from Sabine Pass. Cheniere's marketing group has continued to successfully place volumes from Sabine Pass benefiting from a rebound in Latin American demand. The team has also been able to capitalize on sales opportunity…

Michael Wortley

Management

Thank you, Anatol and good morning, everybody. I am pleased to announce our financial results for the second quarter 2017, a summary of which begins on slide 13. We continued to be pleased with the progress of our financial results as we ramp up operations at Sabine Pass and our result year-to-date have let us to increase and tighten the guidance range for adjusted EBITDA for full year 2017 from $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion up to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion. As Jack mentioned the guidance increase is driven primarily by trains entering service earlier than anticipated and LNG production levels ramping up faster than we forecast earlier this year. As a reminder, as we go through the financial results Cheniere Energy consolidates the results of CQP and CQH. For the second quarter 2017, we reported consolidated revenue of $1.2 billion, compared to $177 million in the second quarter 2016. We exported 48 cargos from Sabine Pass during the quarter, none of which were commissioning cargos. 23 of those 48 cargos were lifted by a third party SPA customers and 25 were lifted by our marketing function. On a volume basis, during the second quarter we recognized revenue on approximately 160 TBtu produced at Sabine Pass. The settle consist of 167 TBtu loaded during the current period less 14 TBtu sold on a delivered DES basis which were still in transit at the end of the period plus 7 TBtu loaded during the prior period, which was delivered and recognized during the current period. These volumes exclude any cargos sold by our marketing function that were sourced from third parties. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter 2017 was $371 million compared to a loss of $4 million in the second quarter of 2016, primarily driven by the continued…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Let's take our first question from the Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.

JeremyTonet

Analyst

Good morning.

JackFusco

Analyst

Good morning, Jeremy.

JeremyTonet

Analyst

There has been some news articles out there regarding GAIL and possibly looking to renegotiate some of their contracts with you and spend topical in the marketplace. So I was wondering if you could share your thoughts regarding this.

JackFusco

Analyst

Sure Jeremy. This is Jack. So, I will start and I will let Anatol if he has anything to add. First off I want all of our customers could be successful and especially want them to recognize that Cheniere delivers a product that is of high quality, it's affordable, it's reliable and it provides them with a lot of optionality to manage their portfolio by not having a destination cost. So, secondly I would say India and specifically GAIL are extremely to Cheniere, as you know India its appetite for LNG has been growing dramatically and we view GAIL as a long-term customer and that a 20 year SPA is just the beginning of our relationship. And then, thirdly I would say Cheniere intends to meet all of our contractual obligations, we intend to meet all of our commitments I have said that over the across of the year now that we intent to meet our commitments with our regulators, our stakeholders, our shareholders. And in return, we expect our customers to meet all of their obligations and their commitments to Cheniere. So that's I will let Anatol if you have anything more to add.

AnatolFeygin

Analyst

Jack, thank you. We do think that India is a rapidly growing market. It is making a lot of right decisions and investments to increase the gas portion of its energy mix. And they think that U.S. and Sabine Pass LNG will be a key contributor to balancing their market and provide as Jack said a very attractive components to GAIL and India's portfolio overall.

JeremyTonet

Analyst

Thanks for that. Second question, just want to touch on the marketing aspect of the business came in - had a quite nice quarter better than we expected and was wondering if you could talk more there maybe, we saw our cargos going to Mexico, South America if there is different opportunities that you see there? And do you have any ability to kind of hedge or lock-in on forward-basis any arms that you guys are seeing on the marketing side further in the year?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst

Yes Jeremy this is Anatol again. Yes, I would say to your point of overall the market has remained resilient again the statistics that we have now delivered to 24 countries. I will say that if somebody said to me a year ago that Latin America will be the plurality of our deliveries, I would not have guessed that especially the mix in Latin America. They just go to show the advantage and the flexibility of this business model and this product that it rapidly response to market conditions. As Jack said, we've talked about price elasticity of demand and how pleasantly surprised we have been with that globally. Latin America is one of those markets as constraints surface whether that is in LATAM, Asia and Europe. Our product is able to respond to that and capture those premium prices. We touched on that a little bit and saying that less than 15% of our volumes have gone to what the world looks at as the balancing market of Northern Europe. In terms of hedging and locking in spreads you know that we do look to short and medium term deals like the transactions we entered into in Asia that they do secure some level of margin once we are confident that we will have the cargos to deliver against those. So we do look to that and do take those opportunities off the table when we can.

JeremyTonet

Analyst

Great, thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Christine Cho with Barclays.

ChristineCho

Analyst · Barclays.

Good morning, everyone. We've seen one of your existing customers publically say that they'd like more LNG supply and are contemplating taking more capacity, but are also evaluating other projects. What do you sense is the most important factor in determining, which way they go, is it completely cost of the supply, execution track record, diversity of the gas? And do any of the customers you talk to want an equity stake in the Train and is it something that you're even open to?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Barclays.

Well, thanks Christine, this is Anatol I'll take the first part and ask Michael to help out on the second. Really all of the above it is a global market, it's becoming complex, liquid, it presents lots of opportunities but in a very dynamic fashion. So we are engage as you can imagine with all of the potential counter parties we think and they ask run the gamut. So it is unquestionably a response to the flexibility that our business and our business model has bought to a table there is no doubt that the destination flexibility something that our customers covered and the ability of Cheniere to perform. As Jack mentioned over last year given what the team has delivered that box has been checked in speed. So that security and supply, reliability, diversity and of course by sensitivity and contract structure are all key topics and are all addressed in our discussions. In terms of investment it is something that does come up from time to time. Michael, do you want to say a few words on that?

MichaelWortley

Analyst · Barclays.

Sure. Historically one of the key tenants of our business has been to not take partners out of the project although it's given us a whole lot of flexibility to run the business. With just people in this room, instead of having to deal with a bunch of partners like some of our competition I said to deal with. So I think our preference would be no, and especially now given the cash flow we're going to be generating, and really efficiently fund these things with on balance sheet debt and lots and lots of cash flow. And having said all of that a very, very large strategic customer came to us and was willing to underwrite off take very large quantities and wanted to look at on equity stage, of course we would consider it the numbers would have to make sense for us though.

ChristineCho

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. And then I don't know how easy this is to parse out, but can you give us an idea of how much of your marketing contribution year-to-date came from lifting third party volumes and doing displacement and things like that?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Barclays.

Thanks, Christine. It's not a number that we want to share clearly there is an optimization function that the team performs and that does capture some incremental value whether that is through diversions or shipping optimization. It is I would say at this point relative to our financials, it's not a huge number, but Michael do you want to add to that?

MichaelWortley

Analyst · Barclays.

Christine, I just point to the back of our Q, we have a volume table in there that shows how much volume is lifted by third party customers, how much was lifted by our marketing affiliate and then how much our marketing affiliate procured from third parties. So I would just look at that.

ChristineCho

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Alex Kania with Wolfe Research.

AlexKania

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Thanks, good morning. A couple of questions, first is just on the Qatar announcement about them really trying to ramp-up their capacity into the next decade is that a kind of changed discussions or impact to the discussions on long-term deals and are off takers still very focused on the kind of mid-'18 kind of trigger point how to make sure that supply comes online in the 2021-2022 timeframe?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Again this is Anatol, thanks for your question. The Qataris lifting the moratorium and reentering the market of course is a meaningful dynamic in the world of LNG they are very capable competitor, they're reliable supplier and as everyone knows their upstream economics are very attractive. So whatever it worth we think that of the roughly 23 million tones that they've talked about something in the 10 million to 15 million tones is relatively low hanging fruit and debottlenecking and that come online over the next three, four years any incremental capacity would be coming online beyond that. But one of the things that we've been discussing over last year is again the growth of the LNG market and the incremental demand for this product at a reasonable price, which Cheniere and Qatar can meet and can continue to deliver to the market. And the gap that opens up once you get into early next decade right because demand is much more difficult for handicap supply. These are large visible projects and what is absolute clear is that early next decade very, very little incremental liquefaction will be coming to market. The only companies and entities that will be able to respond to that in relatively rapid fashion are players like Qatar and like Cheniere with our brownfield expansion. So we think the market will continue to grow and as we roll out to the middle and the latter parts of next decade the incremental demand is 120 million, 130 million tones that we don't see being met other than by incremental volumes from Qatar and some of the other low cost suppliers. So we think they are incredible competitor and we think the market will have to absorb their volumes and ours as we continue to grow.

AlexKania

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Great, thanks. And just my other question is just on the Class B conversion at CQP last week just any latest thoughts on conversations or anything like that with Blackstone over potential plans that they might have?

JackFusco

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

With regard to Blackstone I mean you got to ask them what their plans are. We've said time and time again that we entertain structural simplification if it made sense for us, but I guess I would leave it at that.

AlexKania

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.

TedDurbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks. Maybe I can start with sort of the market again and there's a lot of chatter around lot of heads of agreements being signed included by some of your competitors. I guess, I wonder if you could just comment on those and how much of those might actually translated in SPAs.

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

It's Anatol again, we are as you can appreciate in discussions with related counterparties and to some extent as we navigate the world HOAs are kind of part and parcel of doing business and our steps that may reach to further discussions. And in some cases are almost required to advance those discussions. So we're not against entering into HOAs kind of as a concept whether they reach to contracts ultimately depends on all of the issues we've discussed on this call and others are you able to meet the requirements and compute effectively for that customer business. So we think we will be, we think we'll get more than our fair share of the market and in some cases HOAs will be part of those discussions. But ultimately it will come down to ability to execute and deliver on the dimensions that are critical for that term supply to the customer.

TedDurbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I guess have you entered any yet or is there a number that you could put on that or is it just something you're considering?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

To the extent, we will consider them to the extent that we need to enter them as a means to advance discussions again we would to the extent that they would be for a material volumes we will most likely let you know when that happens.

JackFusco

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Ted it's linked to what Anatol said I mean we tend to kind of approach the market quietly. So we would rather execute on our construction plans, build our trains, process the LNG, shift the LNG to variety of different countries and customers and get them comfortable with our product rather than have any type of ceremonies for HOAs or MOUs or anything of that nature. So I would rather go straight into negotiation on SPA than spend a lot of time with HOAs or MOUs that's just my own personal preference.

TedDurbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Understood. And then just on the contracting again at the Analyst Day you spoke about maybe taking on shorter tenure contracts call in the three, seven, ten year range is that still where the market is you think? And kind of where is the demand for that type of contracts versus the traditional 20 years deals?

JackFusco

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

We're fortunate that we have the flexibility of having volumes in the Cheniere marketing portfolio that we have great degree of freedom in. You've seen us entering shorter term contracts for those volumes, already we continue to entertain those and support our customers with their short and medium term needs. Just like for the long-term discussions, which I would put anything between 10 and 20 years just to calibrate in that long-term bucket. We do have good appetite from counter parties for medium-term three, five, seven year deals and we're in discussions on those as well. Whether those ultimately form part of the portfolio that underwrites incremental liquefaction again served out of the Cheniere marketing portfolio that depends on mirrored factories. So just with we are engaged kind of along the duration curve with our counter parties and have the flexibility to support them with short, medium and long-term deals.

TedDurbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. Great. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.

JackFusco

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.

CraigShere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Good morning.

JackFusco

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Good morning.

CraigShere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Are you still on pace for above nine delivered cargos a quarter for the legacy Asian pre-sold volumes through the next year?

MichaelWortley

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Yeah. Let me just give you this update. I figured somebody would ask that. So, we've always said we had 42 legacy cargos, we're about 60% through that program. So about 17 cargos left and about 80% of that 17 will be delivered over the second half of this year and then the balance in Q1 '18 and I think ratable probably as good as function as any.

CraigShere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Great. And appreciate that Michael and look forward to seeing you tomorrow. And Anatol I wonder if you could just comment about or maybe I don't know if Michael wants to. This discussion about three, five, seven year contracts maybe more off takers are interested in foreign benchmarks. Just wondering how this all translates into the ability to project finance new projects. Now, I know you guys are in the better position than a lot of your peers in terms of the cash flow and being the first mover. But maybe you could speak to what you see in the market in terms of the tugs between off taker interest and what it really takes to finance the new project?

MichaelWortley

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

I will start and then turn it over to Anatol. I mean we won't be constrained by the project finance market at all. We'll do the right deals for the company and we don't need the project finance market to finance them. Now we may go to that market, but it's not a constrained of ours anymore. So in terms of the deals, you want to cover that?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Sure. Again Craig, we - as Michael said we have flexibility to support the customers' requirements and as they deal through their evolving markets and uncertainty we bring a lot to the table. We bring destination flexibility, we bring the liquefaction from the upstream resource we at Cheniere have the capability to support them with those short and medium-term is again they work through there issues. We believe that to-date - year-to-date no contract that has been entered into support incremental liquefaction. So to the extent that as Michael said we have degrees of freedom that some other players do not have and need more term, and need more the right pricing structures. We have the capability to offer dimensions of support to our off takers that we believe some of the others could not.

CraigShere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Right. And last question and so I think on the first quarter call coming what was the some really robust margins are you somewhat sober about the outlook to the rest of the year and into '18 obviously with the fall off of the winter season and then a lot of supply coming on. We are seeing more and more projects including I believe competing U.S. project getting delayed the latest announcement I think was pushed out at least half a year. Are you getting in any respect more optimistic than how you felt with the first quarter comments?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Yes thanks Greg. I am the - uncharacteristically I would say the optimist in this shop and as you look at the forecast that the pundits put out a year ago, two years ago, '16 was supposed to be sloppy, '17 was supposed to be sloppy and I think as you and I discussed we got a sort of advanced peak at what the winter of '16-17 was going to look like when we participated in some market activity that crude much stronger than we expected. Now the winter went on to be even stronger than that and I think surprised a lot of new players in the market, but you had to - as you work through that you had to say that the shoulder period was going to have more supply coming on that we've seen this 15 million ton number in the first half and seasonally just less demand. That said we have been pleasantly surprised by the strength in the market, the kind of margins we are seeing, the optimization opportunities we are seeing. And as we set here today with Henry well under $3, we have six channels in Asia and the Contango in the market. So, yes we are clearly more optimistic than I would say even we were in Q1 and as Jack mentioned and we've talked about in the past demand is continues to surprise us with how price elastic it is given this $6 and $7 price signal.

CraigShere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers.

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And as a reminder, please limit your questions to one and one follow up. We will take our next questions from Michael Webber with Wells Fargo.

MichaelWebber

Analyst

Hey, good morning

JackFusco

Analyst

Good. Michael, how are you?

MichaelWebber

Analyst

Good. Jack first I wanted to circle back to incremental off take and kind of where the markets at, you guys already talked a bit about flexible destination causes and direct equity investments and lots of other I guess bells and vessels some of which are I guess the fact suspect and right now it's in the market but you have got a number of other competitors that are probably going to be more reliant on those when you guys would necessarily have to be I guess particularly kind of U.S. second wave projects. But if we going to push those to the side and just kind of look at kind of purely look at where the clearing prices right now for marginal off take. Do you think it's gotten more competitive quarter-on-quarter since some of those U.S. second wave projects have gotten more active? And are you saying more marketing done below where you're break even or your hurdle rate would be for something like Corpus 3?

JackFusco

Analyst

I have to tell you. We are working Corpus 3. First off there is only one thing on my white board in my office of things to do and that one thing is FIDCC 3. So, we are totally 100% focused on growing the business we think Corpus 3 should be the next logical train that gets built in the United States full stop for incremental LNG. I also think we are in the best position all the way around with all the existing infrastructure that we've invested in with our people, with our processes that we have and the fact that we can actually deliver DES. So, it's not a toll, I have said this before I'd like to touch every part of the LNG value chain and then we have pennies and nickels out of each part and when you added all up it's a pretty big number. And we have joke around here Michael that we feel like farmers, because we are in a volume business we are generating large quantities of volume, margins are good but not great and it's a good business but it's not a great business to fund new greenfield projects, but we don't need that. The customers have been very confused I would say over the last year that I have been around on who to believe? So there has been a lot of rhetoric especially from the U.S. greenfield LNG participants about how cheaply they can do it. It hasn't panned out. So, I think you're on starting to see I know I am starting to see our customers have much more thoughtful discussions with us about what's achievable for a reliable supply of LNG delivered to [indiscernible]. So I feel when I am like - I feel much more optimistic about our ability to grow this business than I was a year ago. In the conversations are much more relevant pointed about what they need to make a commitment to Cheniere.

MichaelWebber

Analyst

Right I guess the question would be what impact - what lasting impact if any have U.S. second wave projects had on that kind of the declaring price that announced sitting down to talk your customers about has that confusion led to any sort of degradation in pricing?

JackFusco

Analyst

No I would say we're not going to chase it down market, we're not going to make an investment that doesn't make sense for our shareholders. And I think it will move like - and we have the most competitive project from a capital perspective in U.S. right now with Corpus 3. So I think the market will rotate back to us. I don't know Anatol you have anything to add to that.

AnatolFeygin

Analyst

Yes thanks, Jack, thanks Michael. I think Jack said probably two years ago, there was a lot of activity that was based on kind of advertise numbers and presentations that as those customers that you mentioned dealt further into they figured out that those numbers were unachievable or at least unachievable reliably. And I would say, it's hard to answer your answer specifically because there has not been kind of market clearing activity that we can point to, but certainly there is a much more or much higher level of sophistication information. And I'd say that to the extent that we do take a guess at what the market is it has moved up pretty substantially from those kind of advertised numbers that the people were throwing around 18 months ago.

MichaelWebber

Analyst

Got you, that's helpful. Just as my second question, I wanted to loop back to I think actually in earlier question around sourcing third-party LNG volumes, but Mike I believe you called out the table in the back of the K in terms of the volumes going to be used I guess to cover CMI contracted volumes as oppose using excess being capacity. The 15 TBtu kind of listed there the pretty healthy jump quarter-on-quarter. So, I am just hoping can you put that figure in context for us, is that something you think you would sustain through the balance for the year and into 2018? And then you talked about a bit earlier just the thought process that goes into that whether it's primarily around to optimizing or is it you're obviously keeping cash upstairs by doing that. So curious how much that weighs on that decision?

MichaelWortley

Analyst

Yes, it's like Jack said it's really taking what the market gives you. So, it's really totally unpredictable, but the marketing folks have set up the short positions in Asia and occasionally you can source that cargo in Asia free up our cargo in the Atlantic Basin and fill it locally basically. And make good margin doing that, but it's really tough to predict. So, I can't answer your question now, but I think it's something we can think about going forward I think it's going to be quite unpredictable.

MichaelWebber

Analyst

Okay, thanks for the time guys.

MichaelWortley

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Matthew Phillips with Guggenheim.

MatthewPhillips

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Just circling back to GAIL for a second, have they approached you directly about renegotiations on the SPA or just all being done via media at this point?

JackFusco

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Yes, thank you, Mathew. I talk to all my customers all the time, earlier this summer I did a trip to Europe and met with most of the foundation customers, and I just think it's good business. So - but as I said before a contract is a contract and that's been our position with all of our customers.

MatthewPhillips

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Got it. When do you expect commercial data - first commercial delivery on trend for?

JackFusco

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Yes, March. Yes, March 1 is the DFCD date is what you mean for…

MatthewPhillips

Analyst · Guggenheim.

March 1. Okay, got it. And then big picture I mean, I think the Korean Energy reforms took the market by surprise I mean, is it way too early to tell if you have visibility to new off-take here I mean have there been reports of a tender coming at any point this year I mean what is kind of the general view there?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Thanks Matt this is Anatol and the rest of the team will pinch in. It is a pretty large seismic shift with one of the largest LNG buyers in the market today. The administration there as you know is new, the changes to policy are relatively new, they're very encouraging and the combination of the new administration and the commencement of ours happen to coincide. So we had a wonderful opportunity to host the delegations at Sabine Pass in the United States and we have very good relationship it's a start of a 20 year - at least 20 year marriage and we hope to continue to grow our opportunity to supply South Korea. So we're very optimistic and we think that this is one of the many tailwinds - policy tailwinds that Jack talked about in his opening remarks.

MatthewPhillips

Analyst · Guggenheim.

Okay, great. That's all from me.

Operator

Operator

Next we have James Carreker with U.S. Capital Advisors.

JamesCarreker

Analyst

Hi, thanks. I was wondering if you guys might be able to bridge the gap a little bit on Q1 versus Q2 EBITDA at CQP. You had an additional train in service, but EBITDA was down I was wondering if you might talk about what some of those offsets were?

MichaelWortley

Analyst

Yes sure this is Michael. I'll talk broadly maybe more about CEI and the same things are impacting CQP. But we had volume up substantially right quarter-on-quarter our marketing business basically had the volumes from Train 3 almost the entire quarter until KOGAS started there at the end. So volume was way up, but margin was way down we are talking about sort of mid-3 margins in Q1 and more like low dollar type margins in Q2. So that impacted it. Those are really the two main things, more volume, much less margins and that effect CEI and CQP.

JamesCarreker

Analyst

Okay. So it's really just a function of global prices?

MichaelWortley

Analyst

Absolutely.

AnatolFeygin

Analyst

Global price another fact that the term off-takes had not commenced. So we have CQP had a lot more exposure to that. As I said on the last call 2017 is the year of heightened exposure to the spot market just because our marketing teams have control over the trains when they start until DFCD have the contract. And so we just got through that on Train 3, we'll have it on Train 4 again through the winter similarly.

JamesCarreker

Analyst

So does that mean that when I guess Train 3 before it was substantially complete I guess or before DFCD does the economics belong to I guess CEI at that point?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst

Yes, marketing the volumes and sharing those margins with CQP.

JamesCarreker

Analyst

Okay. And then any update on remaining CapEx spend at Sabine Pass getting pretty close to commissioning Train 4? And any thoughts on what you do maybe with that kind of contingency CapEx that you've been holding back?

MichaelWortley

Analyst

No change in the contingency for now, the Train 5 is still 18 months out roughly. And so we'll let that progress more before we start making decisions on contingency. But we have about $3.1 billion of capital remaining. Again mostly associated with Train 5 and then Corpus is about $4 billion if you're wondering about that project.

JamesCarreker

Analyst

That's all from me, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Fotis Giannakoulis with Morgan Stanley.

FotisGiannakoulis

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes hi gentlemen. Anatol I want to ask you if you have any update about the modular LNG feed and if you can provide us with any update about the Chilean project?

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Thanks Fotis. Yes as you said we're continuing to work through the feed as we said before we are still cautiously optimistic our work there is not done yet, but we think it is a viable option and another arrow in Cheniere quiver that will allow us to continue to be the low cost and most responsive incremental liquefaction supplier in U.S. As Jack mentioned the branch of expansions of Corpus Train 3, Sabine Train 6 are the most attractive economics and we're going to work very hard to continue to maintain that kind of competitive posture. But we're not done yet we're not fully through the feed process there, yet but again optimistic there. Yes, in terms of Chile, yes we continue to work with our partners on our El Campesino. As you know the permitting process has resumed, we're working through the indigenous consultation, we have a very valuable power purchase agreement and a fully permitted power plant and we're going to work alongside our partners to capture that value and remain cautiously optimistic about that as well.

FotisGiannakoulis

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Thank you, Anatol. And to follow-up on the previous questions about incremental off-takes particularly from the U.S. and your comment about your demand elasticity the price elasticity of demand, how fast do you think that the demand can grow at LNG prices that are higher than today and they can support this new projects, this expansion projects?

JackFusco

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Great question Fotis. I wish we knew the answer to that, right. This is a period where the market is clearly demonstrating that between kind of $5.5 and $7. There is a tremendous amount of demand in the market depending where you get those kind of $7 or maybe $8 numbers, will determine whether that is sufficient at call $4 to $3 Henry Hub to underwrite more liquefaction or not. I think the market is positioning itself for more term off-take, but it is in the period of digesting a very substantial incremental wave of supply. And again since supply is a lot easier to handicap all of these buyers who listen to us, who listen to all of our extreme competitors and all of the consultants see this wave coming over the next couple of years. I would say, to your question and previous questions. I think by and large the market is surprised how quickly this incremental volume is being digested. So what was - whatever peoples' guess was for the point at which the market rebounces must have moved up relative to their initial expectations in 2015-16. And we think with that the buyer appetite and appetite for meaningful term commitments will come back and will come back soon rather the later. So whether that what the global growth rate for LNG is against the new policy backdrops that you're seeing as we discussed out of South Korea, out of China, out of Vietnam, out of other countries. And how does that respond to a price signal that's sufficient for incremental liquefaction projects. We are optimistic about that, but that point in the cycle is yet to come.

FotisGiannakoulis

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Thank you. Anatol will appreciate. Thank you, Jack.

JackFusco

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay, Fotis.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

PavelMolchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking the question guys. Just one question from me. You alluded to the recent decision to cancel one of the largest proposed projects in the United State or Canada rather. And yet there is still more than 60 Bcf a day of projects in the pipeline when we add up what's proposed in the U.S. as well as DC. So my question is, why do you think the pace of cancellation has been so slow bearing in mind all the contracting difficulties that you've been discussing?

JackFusco

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

I am not really sure for Pavel other than it just doesn't cost much to keep it alive, right. And hopefully there is a big part to go at the end if you are successful. So, why I drive that out and try to keep it alive for as long as you possibly can.

PavelMolchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Is the fact that there are all these projects that are kind of in limbo is that actually creating a worst supply demand balance? When there is the 60 Bcf a day potential supply overhang over the market.

JackFusco

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

No I don't think so, I mean it's not the sense that I get from our customers myself the customers want to deal with the reputable company that has proven execution that can deliver reliable supply at affordable price. And I don't sense that there is any concern there with them waiting to see what happens with other folks and I am looking at Anatol.

AnatolFeygin

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks Jack. I'll just add a couple of things to Jack's point. I think the market is starting to also understand the integrated business model that Cheniere brings to the table as oppose to the challenges inherent in the total construct for the capacity holders. And with that as the market becomes more sophisticated and keep in mind again the market did not have U.S. LNG before February 24th of last year. So this is kind of a new dynamic and everyone is getting smarter on what it means and what the challenges of supplying LNG from these projects means. In terms of buyer appetite again while those projects between the market digesting this incremental supply and in some cases projects advertising numbers that I think at this point the buyers are realizing unrealistic or at least include a lot more cost than just the advertise number. I think that that competition is going to fall by the way side closer than it has over the last year and half.

PavelMolchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Appreciate again.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein.

JeanAnnSalisbury

Analyst · Bernstein.

Good morning. Separately from the true supply demand balancing in the early 2020. There was the 90 MPA of recontracting demand from 2020 to '25 that you showed at your Analyst Day. Are buyers already in the market for resigning or replacing these volumes or will that be more like 2018, 2019?

JackFusco

Analyst · Bernstein.

Well they are absolutely the market, again these are 20 year deals in most cases that are rolling off and absolutely the discussions are well underway with that wedge of the market. I would say that that wedge you can prove the subdivide into suppliers that are less long than they were either that's because of indigenous demand growth or resource constraints. And suppliers that have those volumes to market obviously the first bucket is easier to address and compete than the second and we're in discussions with all of those off takers for that next term commitment.

JeanAnnSalisbury

Analyst · Bernstein.

Got it, thank you. And then as a follow-up Cheniere trade at a fairly correlation to oil price. How do you think about the fundamental betas to oil price that Cheniere should have?

JackFusco

Analyst · Bernstein.

We think it should be zero.

JeanAnnSalisbury

Analyst · Bernstein.

When oil price goes up it should be good for you to be able to summer volumes because they are competing price I guess has gone up as well, is that fair?

JackFusco

Analyst · Bernstein.

Well you are right, but in that you are making the assumption that going forward LNG prices will be oil linked and we think that that's a premise that's going to continue to be challenged going forward.

JeanAnnSalisbury

Analyst · Bernstein.

Okay, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's question-and-answer session, I would like to turn the conference back over to Jack Fusco for any additional or closing remarks.

Jack Fusco

Management

Yes I just want to say thank you everybody for your support of Cheniere and for what we are trying to do here and we really appreciated and talk to you soon.

Operator

Operator

And once again that concludes today's presentation. We thank you all for your participation and you may now disconnect.