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Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 14, 2023

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Transcript

Santiago Donato

Management

Good morning everyone. I'm Santiago Donato, Investor Relations Officer of Cresud, and I welcome you to the Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. First of all, I would like to remind you that both audio and slide show may be accessed through company's Investor Relations website at www.cresud.com.ar by clicking on the banner webcast link. The following presentation and the earnings release are also available for download on the company website. After management remarks there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts and investors. If you want to make a question, please click the button labeled to raise hand or use the chat. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded under information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's earnings release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Alejandro Elsztain, CEO. Please go ahead sir.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Good morning everybody. We are beginning today our second quarter 2023 results. We are going to begin in page number 2, talking about the main highlights for this -- for the half year. And we are achieving a record planted area in the region and we began to include in our performance the farms that we own and we are leasing to third parties. What does it mean? Some funds, own funds that we rent sometimes to generate a client to sell, sometimes directly to share the risk of production in the area. And that's the reason that in the next page we are going to see that we are achieving close to 290,000 hectares of total land in the combination of leasing and only plant. About the company progress, there are mixed conditions and we are going to see depending countries and crops. But in general there is a sustainability price and for this campaign, I think it’s very important growing crops, more affected in the case of Brazil, in Argentina has affected margins. So we are going to see good and sustained commodity prices. But these growing costs taking a big portion of those margins comparing to last year and that's why Matías later will explain some of the lower margins on the first semester that is the less important in a number of crops, majority counts in summer that will be reflected in the third and the fourth quarter. Our climate is affected mainly Argentina, we are going to see the effect of the drought in Argentina mainly, not affecting Brazil, or not importantly in Bolivia and Paraguay, but this is really changing in the case of Argentina. But we were lucky about some of the impact came to some regions that we have few fast, not…

A - Santiago Donato

Management

Thank you. Well, we conclude the presentation. And now it's time for the Q&A session. We're going to take the questions in the orders we receive them. First question, do you expect farmland sales in Argentina for the next semester of this year 2023 and also in the region?

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Yes, we are seeing some searches of farms neighbors or people trying to expand and not to -- probably they are not very happy putting their money in their banks or in other assets. So yes, some in Argentina, not of the liquidity of the rest of the region, but yes, some movement, so I'm optimistic in Argentina too, but much more optimistic in Brazil, where the benefit of -- instead of the human being, he is a farmer, not a society, instead of him being paying the taxes on gain, taxes on earnings, they directly buy new farm so they avoid directly to pay so the liquidity there is great. So I'm optimistic on the two, but much more in Brazil than in Argentina. And I expect the next semester activity in the two.

Santiago Donato

Management

Next question, do you think the drought in Argentina will have an impact in commodity prices?

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Sounds like, the effect of the drought made the prices to keep still that, if Argentina would have the normal 50 million tons or more, would be different. But the 35 more or less that the market is expecting, sounds like the market accepted, and because of volumes of Brazil the markets not to operate and we are not seeing the rebound – should rebound of the price. Like last year, we saw that when ARS 30 million disappeared in the region. Today they are not ARS 30 million disappearing, maybe it could be an effect on the mill because of Argentina industrialize majority of the soybean and Brazil not and sell directly as a mill. So maybe it could be deficit on that – in the flower of soybeans. And yes, that could be a positive price's on that, because of the low volume on the part for soybean. Yes. Here we have many questions from our investors, if we can explain the reasons for the significant tax credit in the P&L in the latest quarter results? Matías Gaivironsky: Yes. There is – we have been assessing our results, our tax results by inflation in the last quarters, and we took a very conservative approach in our balance sheet recognizing all the losses in the previous quarters. There was a new decision under the Supreme Court that allows the company's to by inflation in the tax balance sheet. So since that was exactly what we have been doing, we decided to reverse the effect of the tax in this semester that generated an important gain. And now we have support via Supreme Court decision. That is the reason why we had the loss in this semester.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Here – there is a question here regarding provision of the lawsuit that increase in the second quarter. What you expect of that ruling. And if there can be any other related lawsuits going forward? Matías Gaivironsky: Okay. This is related to is investment IRSA's investment in Israel. That was – that we explained that during the webcast of IRSA. There was – there is a new claim that IRSA received a couple of weeks ago. It is basically a plan for ILS 140 million. The company is decided to create a new provision no matter on all the legal defense that we believe that the chances are very high. But the company decided to be conservative, and create a provision of 50% of that. That is the – that provision in this semester. And going forward, no we don't expect more claims from our investment in Israel.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Related to the fair value losses on investment properties that jumping in the second quarter – we can discuss reasons for that and outlook going forward. I think some parts you explained Matías but -- I think giving in the next quarters, what do you expect for top line? Matías Gaivironsky: It's also related to investment in IRSA, it’s not directly from Cresud standalone. You need to understand, how is the procedure. We value the shopping malls with our DCF model and offices and land bank with comparables in the market. The comparables we are using the low chip swap to convert dollars to pesos and the DCF is a model that is created in using the official effects. When you measure the properties in dollar terms, valuations are the same, so it's not changing. What happened is that you -- when you have to convert that into pesos, you have to measure what happened with the inflation and what happened with the devaluation. And always, when you have an appreciation of the pesos you generate gains, that is what happened last year, that generated an important gain. And this year, it's not the same. So, when we analyze basically the new chip swap, there was an evaluation converting that into pesos is lower than the inflation. So, that you have to generate a loss in that line.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

To more financials for Matias, any guidance on dividend and share repurchase going forward? And also, your targets of labor have pursued going forward. Matías Gaivironsky: Well, regarding the buybacks, we have this program approved for ARS 4 billion. From that we executed ARS 1.3 billion. So we will continue to execute the plan in the future. Dividends, we prefer not to give guidance. We always approved in the shareholders meeting that. So there is no proposal yet to our shareholders' meeting. So, I don't know in the coming months decision. Regarding the leverage, we can see the deleverage on a consolidated basis that is very positive, because now is has much more free cash flow to this field or to use in future projects. In the case of CRESUD, the guidance is valid or the same on what we have. So we will -- I believe, maintain the same leverage for the year.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Question related to farm and real estate, what would be your average market price of agricultural land projectors, crops and Catlin Argentina and Brazil, outlook and bank prices going forward? And would you be looking to increase monetization of your agricultural land? There is an average for each region has a different price and Brazil is calling impact of soybeans in Argentina. The nomination is , there was a big rebound on the prices on the banks in Brazil mainly and that region followed the trend of United States, appreciation of the last not in the case of Argentina because of intervention of the government adding taxes on exports and because of the dollars that following the trade of U.S. didn't happen in Argentina. So there is a lot of liquidity in the farms in Brazil really an activity that I've never seen and a lot of businesses of other partners to increase their stake. So they like to be increasing their operations. And they do through buying and paying on installments. They don't buy and pay in cash, they normally do pay 20%, 35% and the rest is 23 years in many installments for the future in South Sweden. In the case of Argentina, land humidity was less this last year, because of the two effects that I said. And so today the prices of the land are much more, cheap and there is not this following American or Brazilian prices. And but I imagine the appreciation on the land of Argentina will come because of probably the next government reducing the cap on the dollar and reducing the taxes on exports. So I imagine more measures related to farmers. And we are seeing the existing government is improving the farmers' situation with giving some special dollars to farmers that is like enable taxes that they can fix their soils. So really I'm optimistic on the price of land of Argentina and the price of the Brazilian farms is made in the liquid and attractive comparing to the past. And a lot of realizations for the U.S. here for sure there is realizations and maybe this year are more realization where there is so much field price for the last and sometimes we bought that, I don't know 10 times lower than today's price or much more than that. And Brasilagro in Brazil, so this buying when no one is buying, I'm setting with everyone is fine and giving the community, to the farm, to the company who get to revise in another region, later with the opportunity up. Yes for sure this is what will happens.

Santiago Donato

Operator

I don't see more questions. I'll give one minute more for any additional questions. You can use chat to raise your hand. Yes, we will post a replay today afternoon in the website. So I'm going to be able to see it again. There is a question, if we're going to read it -- start again with the repurchase yes, we have started some -- yesterday with daily buybacks, as we have done and before we’ve been doing. So with this we conclude the presentation and the Q&A session. Thank you very much for participation. I will turn back now to Alejandro Elsztain, CEO for his closing remarks.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

I would like to finish, we are in the first half of the year. We talk about the grades coming in the second semester, in this case expecting the real estate much, more happy, in a few moment, and very deleveraged. And this – now, there are much better results, operational results in IRSA too, the rental property too. So in the case of services through feel, it's really a big engine for Cresud too and we are seeing big results and accepting the expansion of field Brazil, that will give us more and more EBITDA for the company too. So optimistic on the second semester. Thank you very much, and have a very good day.