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Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 9, 2024

$11.25

+0.00%

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Transcript

Santiago Donato

Management

Good morning, everyone. I'm Santiago Donato, Investor Relations Officer of Cresud, and I welcome you to the second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 Results Conference Call. First of all, I would like to remind you that both audio and slide show may be accessed through company's Investor Relations website at www.cresud.com.ar by clicking on the banner webcast link. The following presentation and the earnings release are also available for download on the company website. After management remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts and investors. If you want to make a question, please use the chat. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's earnings release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Alejandro Elsztain, CEO.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Good morning, everybody. Now we are beginning the main highlights for our second quarter 2024. And we can begin with the regional campaign progress. This is a campaign that is replicating the size of last year, but the commodities have dropped a lot, and we are going to see later in between the soybeans, the corn and the ethanol are affecting our results. But in the other side, we are expecting higher yields and margins mainly in Argentina because last year dropped because of the drought and this year, a normal or Nino campaign. Related to that, the better climate conditions were at the beginning of the campaign, there was a month with the lack of rains, but these days, yesterday, today is raining again. So this is recovering the moisture of the soil. So we are expecting -- we have a very normal and good winter campaign, and we are expecting a normal and better -- much better for last year, but more than normal year related to soybean and corn. About BrasilAgro, this year, we have lower productive results and the climate affecting them, it's decreasing some of the yields, not dramatically, but some of the yields, but mainly the effect is the lower valuation of the crops. And the combination of those -- that big drop of the prices and increase on the basis of the prices of Brazil related to Chicago. So this is a big discount this year is affecting really the margins of the main range of Brazil. Related to farm sales, we -- in these 6 months, we had 2 sales in Argentina. Still now not in the rest of the region, but we are optimistic on that too. And these 2 are Los Pozos and El Tigre. We sold 2 small pieces…

Diego Biaus

Management

Yes. Thanks, Alejandro. Good morning, everybody. Well, on Slide 2, you can see the evolution of commodity prices after the big bridge after pandemic soybean and corn international prices haven't experienced a correction that was accelerated in the last quarter due to the growth in supply from South America. The market is waiting for the demand to be reactivated. soybean increase approximately -- price of soybean decreased approximately 18% since July 2023, and corn is down 12%. Regarding input costs, they are still high levels but we expect that it's just in line with the [indiscernible] basis. Next page. On this page, we show the expected planted area in the region. We expect to plant 282,000 hectares. This is a bit less than we expected at the beginning of the campaign, where mainly in Brazil with the weather. But the size of the campaign will be similar to the previous campaign. Regarding crop breakdown, we have diversified crop mix, but we produce mainly soybean and corn that account from an approximately 17% of our plant and service. Next page. Here, in this page, we can see the climate conditions for the region showing progress. Regional weather conditions are better than the previous campaign mainly in Argentina. Remember the historical drought we had in the past. Our -- the expectation of the good or regular campaign despite the beginning of the campaign with a lack of rain with the impact on the winter crop production. And last week, we received a higher rain of [indiscernible]. BrasilAgro is being affected by the Nino with impact, mainly in MAPITOBA region. Regarding of the showing progress, it's almost completed in Argentina and advance in the other region, soybean 97% progress and the corn 74%, Wheat 100% the winter crop. For Argentina corn too close to 90%. Now Alejandro, we want to continue with the real estate business.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Related to the fraction of the Los Pozos farm, we have the chance of selling a small portion of 4,200 hectares of land. That was done at $540 per hectare what we paid in 1995, $10. So -- and the CapEx invested on that was $25. So the profit in the investment, it's 14x. That represents an internal rate of return of dollars of 14% from 1995 to now to 2024. So this is this a small portion, we have a remaining surface of 235,000 hectares, and we made an accounting gain of ARS 722 million in this quarter. So this is the kind of transformation from $10 to $500, $1,000 and we expect the developed to be at thousands, the agriculture and the cattle area. So imagine what is the kind of transformation from $10 to $1,000 or a few thousand dollars per hectare. This is a not developed area where we decided to sell directly to other people that they are ready to do -- they are going to probably to develop it. This is an area that is permitted to develop. And if we move to next page, here, we did, I think, one of the best transactions on Cresud story. We bought a long time ago, I think 2006, so I don't remember it exactly, but 2003. 20 years ago, we bought a piece of land of 8,400 hectares, and we began to sell -- and this is the first small sell on that big transaction. So we have a big remaining 7,800 hectares. The 500 hectares we sold for $7,500 per hectare. We bought in 2003 in $1,000, $1,100 per hectare, and we invested throughout the history $350. Again, a profit of 5x to investment accounting gain of ARS 2,600 million, an internal rate of…

Matias Gaivironsky

Management

Thank you, Alejandro. Good morning, everybody. So analyzing the results of IRSA during the first half of the year were very good results both on an operational and financial. Tenant sales keep growing at a base higher than inflation. EBITDA of the hotels remain very strong with very high occupancy. About our offices, there was a slight improvement in occupancy. This segment will have a benefit of the revaluation. Remember that here we collect revenues tied to the official exchange rate. So after the revaluation in pesos term, we will improve significantly our collection. And also during the quarter, there was a very strong real estate activity selling 2 floors of Della Paolera building. We did a barter agreement on important plot of land in Del Plata, where we put the land and we will receive units from a closed community that will be developed there. And also with the new project is the Della Paolera building Trust. This is a building very close to the obelisk in Argentina and downtown Buenos Aires. It's an important building that IRSA will be the developer and also an investor. We did the Trust, and we sold 100% of the project in less than a month. So about the evolution of the rental EBITDA, you can see on the right side, the dollar terms still strong, $166 million remained stable against the last year. So probably we expect because of the new rules of the new administration, there will be probably a slowdown in consumption in the coming months. So probably in pesos term, our tenant sales will grow lower than the inflation. So we will see that in the coming quarters. In dollar terms, maybe we will keep growing because the pace of the official exchange rate, they are evaluating the currency…

Santiago Donato

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Well, the first question is related to the campaign, which are the perspective for the campaign, if you can give a little bit more color on that. And the recent measures of Milei, and the one that he plans to take, how that could affect or impact in the agri business in general and particularly in Argentina.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

Related to the campaign, I think we can speak about a good, very good campaign in Argentina. In volumes, the conditions comparing year-to-year is busy because last year was one of the worst in the history of Argentina. But related to average, we expect a better than average year, and this is what the USDA is forecasting. And so the combination of the measures of the government, the government was trying to change the taxes on export. Finally, didn't approve it and took it from the measures of the government, but up to now, the condition of the valuation in the farmers with the combination of the yields that is more than normal or better, really, it's -- last year was a very negative campaign and the humid pump has suffered a lot. Farmers lost money per hectare, but we didn't see any bankruptcy on the country, really was amazing in a big, very big, strong situation with the big taxes on exports, big gap in the dollars and big drop on the deals no one disappeared. So the situation for this year is much better comparing much, much better. We are all expecting good margins, dilution on cost because of FX and with a better yields. So situation and probably giving more liquidity to the real estate to Argentina. Argentina was close to disconnected to the world. There was a big valuation of the land of the world, but Argentina was close to be disconnected. Now with this environment, we think it's going to be more liquid and stronger the farms in Argentina, and we began to see 2 examples on this year. And related to the rest of the region, I imagine close to normal conditions, a little lower yields, but a lot of more liquidity in the rest of the farmers. So the average of the yield for the region is, there is a reduction for margins, for sure, when you see the drop on prices, margins for farmers are reducing. In the case of Argentina, we are [indiscernible] because of the Argentine measures. But in the farmers industry, this is now affecting the margins. So probably is helping us to be, again, buying after the disappearance of the sales probably will come a time of buying for the region, for Cresud and BrasilAgro.

Santiago Donato

Operator

Well, there is a question here related to a little bit what we have already talked Alejandro, the impact of the rejected of reform bill on Cresud and IRSA, the 2 companies I don't know if that's something to add or...

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

We're affecting was an increase in taxes on exports. So that is -- it was a small negative, small because we're at 1 to 3 points increasing the taxes on exports in some of them, not all. So it wasn't some impact, but was not so negative. But what Milei is trying to change is many pockets of the country. So he's talking about fiscal deficit and these all kind of distortions of the market, we think for farmers are going to be much better than worse because if Argentina is going to be allowing foreigners to buy more land. Today, they can but small pieces. So he was thinking on changing that and allowing foreigners to buy the size they want. That will be a connection of the price of the farm of Argentina. Argentine corn today is at $15,000, I would say, comparing to a 40-50 in U.S. That was very close relation. And now that gap is huge. It's one of the largest history. So everything that Argentina will go in the trend of connected to the world. It will be in the holding of the cattle, the holding of the land and probably -- and he was thinking on reduction on taxes in the long term. He said that. In the middle, he is showing serious measures to have surplus, not on deficit. And that was his measure, and he's thinking doing that, too. So the law didn't work, but now he is going to probably present something else. We don't know what it's going to be, but we are waiting for that. So we are thinking that Milei effect on Argentine farmers and the urban story, too will come credit probably to Argentina, capital international market. So we are optimistic on the kind of measures Milei is bringing to the economy. And now we are on that uncertainty of what are the next steps he's going to bring.

Santiago Donato

Operator

Yes. Additional question regarding the FX. How do you think it will affect or at the end, if they liberate all the gap between the FX and there's a new FV ffect and only one for Cresud.

Matias Gaivironsky

Management

I think Alejandro mentioned at the beginning when he described the valuation. At the end of the day, farmers are receiving pesos according to the official exchange rate. So if there is only one FX, then farmers can convert those pesos into dollars so they will receive the same one amount of dollar, not [indiscernible] amount of dollars. So that is definitely positive for farmers. I don't know what will be the level of the FX if there will be one FX on the current value or the blue chip swap value or higher value, we don't know. But definitely having only one exchange rate for farmers is something very positive. About our debt, we pay everything at the official exchange rate. So at the end of the day, if there is an evaluation, we will pay a higher cost in pesos term. But since our farms, our value in dollars and the productions are value in dollars, then we are hedged against that. So I believe that the normalization is very positive for the farming industry.

Santiago Donato

Operator

Well, we give 2 minutes more if there is any additional question. You can use the chat. Okay. If there are no more questions, we conclude the presentation, the Q&A session, and I turn back to Alejandro, CEO of Cresud, for his closing remarks.

Alejandro Elsztain

CEO

As you know in our long history, half of the year, it's the beginning of the campaign. So let's see, the second half, probably more real estate transactions let's see what is there with summer crop that is the main activity for Cresud. And the macro of Argentina that probably will affect and the new measures are going to be the main issue for Argentina for the next 6 months. So happy to be reducing the debt on the company on Cresud comparing Cresud and IRSA and BrasilAgro everything today, the financial situation of the company is strong, very, very, very strong related to the assets and maybe next presentation, we can show the holding of everything that shows that we're really very conservative position and assets that they are working much better than in the past and now with a very being operational, commercial and real estate activity. Thank you very much, and we see you next quarter. Have a very good day.