Earnings Labs

Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 10, 2022

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Transcript

Brandi Kendall

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining Crescent’s third quarter 2022 earnings call. Our prepared remarks today will come from our CEO, David Rockecharlie, and myself, Todd Falk, Chief Accounting Officer and Ben Connor and Clay Rynd both Executive Vice Presidents are also here today and available during Q&A. Today’s call may contain projections and other forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities law. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including commodity price volatility, the continued impact of Covid 19, geopolitical conflict, including in Russia and Ukraine, our business strategies and other factors that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in these statements and our other disclosures. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward looking statements after today’s call. In addition, today’s discussion may include disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures. For reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure please reference our 10-Q and earnings press release available on our website. With that, I will turn it over to David.

David Rockecharlie

Management

Great. Thank you, Brandi, and good morning. Next month we will mark our first anniversary of becoming a public company. A lot has changed in the market environment over the last year, but at Crescent, we continue to execute the same strategy that we have used successfully over the last decade through market cycles and volatility. Number one, generating significant free cash flow. Number two, exercising prudent risk management, and number three, producing outsized returns on investment and thanks to the dedication, expertise and hard work of everyone of the members of our team, we are pleased to discuss yet another strong quarter and exceptional progress on our value creation goals. Before moving to this quarter’s results, I would like to highlight some of the significant achievements from this past year, both operationally and financially, which add value to the company and keep us well positioned for continued long-term value creation for our shareholders. To begin, we continued our successful acquisition track record with the highly accretive $690 million Uinta Basin acquisition closed earlier this year. We believe these assets add meaningful value for shareholders significantly increasing the scale of our production base with approximately $1 billion approved, developed PV-10, while also enhancing our margins and adding attractive oil weighted inventory. The transaction exemplifies the power of our acquisition platform and we expect our deeply experienced team of investment and operational professionals will continue to deliver value through our acquisition strategy in what remains a capital constrained sector. Next, we continue to demonstrate our commitment to balance sheet strength, free cash flow, and returns to investors. Our cash flow generation allowed us to achieve over $250 million of debt reduction post acquisition, and our leverage at 9/30 is in-line with our long-term target of one times debt to EBITDA. We…

Brandi Kendall

Management

Thanks, David. Our third quarter results reflect yet another solid quarter for our business as we continue to prioritize shareholder returns in the balance sheets. To recap, we produce 150,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day and 69,000 net barrels of oil per day, which reflected 6% and 8% increased quarter-over-quarter respectively, primarily due to a higher plane completion activity. Additionally, we generated 359 million of adjusted EBITDA and 144 million of lever free cash flow maintaining consistent cash flow generation despite the fall off in commodity prices. Alongside earnings, we announced a quarterly dividend payment of $0.17 per share consistent with the previous quarter. Part of our forthcoming 2023 guidance we intend to re-evaluate our base dividend within the confines of our 10% of adjusted EBITDAs framework and subject to Board approval look forward to declaring our 2023 dividend as part of our forward outlook early next year. Diving into specifics, our oil differentials increased modestly quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to growing production from our Uinta Basin asset, which has been more than offset by the higher oil weighting of our production this quarter. Operating costs excluding production and other taxes for the quarter were $15.33 per BOE, a 4% increase quarter-over-quarter. As David briefly mentioned, this increase is partially driven by inflationary pressures in certain commodity linked costs, but a meaningful piece of our overall increase was driven by increased maintenance activity and high return elective work over projects. Additionally, we incurred certain non-recurring operating expenses over the course of the third quarter, primarily due to the expenses stemming from our first year as a public company as well as our most recent acquisition. Excluding those non-recurring expenses, our operating costs excluded production and other taxes would decrease to 14.87 on a per unit basis outside the high…

David Rockecharlie

Management

Thanks, Brandi. Before moving on to Q&A, I want to reiterate some of our year-to-date highlights, which we believe provide the foundation for sustained value and success. First, we completed the Uinta Basin acquisition, adding significant scale to the business and increasing our runway of high margin oil weighted inventory. Second, we increased our dividend by 40%, passing through the accretive nature of the Uinta transaction while continuing to delever the business having repaid over 250 million of debt over the past six-months. Third, we continue to post strong quarterly results while successfully integrating a number of new assets into our business, creating a business of scale with approximately 2.3 billion in unhedged, annualized adjusted EBITDA and approximately 6.3 billion improved developed PV-10 at 9/30 strip pricing. Fourth, we have continued to create organic value across our 600 million to 700 million capital program, developing high returning locations and managing an inflationary environment with repeatable operational efficiencies. We have continued to prioritize our role as stewards of the environment, publishing our second ESG report, and committing to reduce absolute emissions by 50% by 2027. And finally, we have continued to prioritize capital markets activities, raising incremental bank and high yield debt, completing the year’s first marketed EMP equity issuance, which increased our public float by 15% and adding research coverage from four analysts over the course of the year. The achievements we have had in our first year as a public company continue to demonstrate Crescent’s differentiated business model is working and will continue to position the company for success into what remains an attractive market backdrop for our sector. Thanks again for joining us today, and with that we will now be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have a first question from the line of Neil Dingman with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Neil Dingmann

Analyst

Thanks for the details. Could you talk maybe just a bit about more of your maintenance plan? I know you don’t have specific 2023, but just talk thinking about, you know, around maybe flat production, how you might think about cost -- and everything as it affect next year?

Benjamin Connor

Analyst

Yes, Happy to take that, Neil. It has been - what I would say is, as David and Brandi noted in their opening remarks, we expect to kind of be in maintenance mode next year and kind of thinking about running kind of the two rig program that we have been running more recently into next year. We have talked about that in the past to maintain, to slightly grow our production, that is a two to three rig program. So I think that is what you should continue to see from us from an activity level. But we will be obviously coming out with guidance here on the near-term. As it relates to cost inflation, look, we are seeing the same trends that everybody else in the sector is seeing, which is expected given the move and the commodity price and increased activity. And we noted that when we came out with our guidance coupled with the unit basin transaction of an increase of 10% to 15%. We have done a good job combating that. Both through, enhancing laterals, links in the Eagle Ford and then also changing our completion design in theta, which is meaningfully below where the prior operator’s costs was before you take into account the inflation. But on the outlook, our view from here is that inflation’s really going to be tied to activity and continued activity in the sector. And so, while we still see pressure, we certainly have seen the pace of increase in costs, moderate, and we think that our low decline asset base will continue to advantage us in an inflationary environment just given the relatively low amount of capital, that is required for us to invest back in our assets to maintain our production. So hopefully that answers your questions, but happy to expand upon that.

Neil Dingmann

Analyst

I’m sorry. I was just wondering about the, if you are restimulating, what you are doing there to sort of revitalize that. Thank you.

David Rockecharlie

Management

Yes, really, and it is in our investor presentation, I don’t have in front of me in terms of the exact page, but really what we have done in - is twofold. One, we have widened out spacing, which you would expect to deliver better results. And then coupled with that, we have increased the completion intensity, both in terms of the amount of prop and fluid that we are pumping in the reservoir. And we have changed that in terms of the types of things that we are pumping into the ground, which ultimately is lowering the cost of, of that completion.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We take the next question from lineup Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Lloyd Byrne

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

You talked about the A&B market and how you have scrutinized 150 transactions and the market might be getting better as you look out, so maybe you could address that. And then also you talked about when you sold Hector scale, and does that mean that you’d rather scale up, you went to the Eagle Ford, or it doesn’t really matter as long as the value is there?

David Rockecharlie

Management

Yes, we can start on actor quickly. I think as we looked at the portfolio that was just an asset that it was going to be difficult to scale around, given where it was in the basin. And frankly, wasn’t going to be a place we were going to be committed to spending capital on. The process and felt like we got good value. So I don’t think it is a direct statement on the broader Permian or anything like that. I think it was just that asset footprint and kind of how we felt about the capital opportunity relative to the portfolio. In terms of the broader market, you know, obviously, you know, David hit a bunch of this, but you know, we were really active post the signing of the Contango merger, did over a billion dollars of transactions through Q1. And then in Q2 and Q3, a lot of commodity volatility. It was a tough time to kind of be a buyer at value. I think what we are, you know, as we look out from here, we kind of remain in active dialogue on a number of conversations, see kind of the stability in the market a bit, although it continues to be volatile, providing an outlook where, we think we will be able to transact value as we look over the next six, six to nine-months.

Todd Falk

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yes, and the other thing I would just say is like, we are even better positioned today, really coming out of all the accomplishments that, you know, we have completed over the last couple of quarters, we have successfully integrated Uinta acquisition that is going well. We have continued to pay down debt on the balance sheet and completed, you know, an equity offering that was really well received. So just as a business, we feel really very well positioned going into next year where we do expect to see continued activity in the A&D market and the things that have gotten done have gotten done at very attractive values, we think.

Lloyd Byrne

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. And let me ask on the back of that, you talk about paying down debt and your balance sheet’s in great shape. What are the priorities for your levered free cash going forward? It is just building cash at this point, waiting for the right opportunity. How do you think about that?

Brandi Kendall

Management

Hey Lloyd, it is Brandi. Good, good question. So cash flow priorities one A and one B continue to be the dividend and the balance sheet. So alongside earnings last night we announced another $0.17 per share for quarter dividend, which is in-line with our last quarter dividend equates to roughly a 5% yield. We expect to continue to keep the dividend framework consistent in the near-term of paying out 10% of our adjusted EBITDA would expect next quarter’s dividend to be in the same range, the roughly $0.17 a share. And then we will look to reset it alongside guidance in 2023. So it is really, you know, balance sheet strength, long term target of return, which we are at now, that the dividend will look, you know, organically into our capital program right where we are spending capital. And as Ben mentioned this earlier, we are spending capital in the Uinta and the Eagle Ford today. And then if there is excess cash, you know, we will continue to focus on debt repayment.

Lloyd Byrne

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

That is great. Thank you, guys. If I could squeeze one more in on the drilling efficiency side you guys did a pretty good job, obviously with the longer laterals and helping offset inflation. Is there more there going forward? I know Neil touched on it a little bit in the Uinta but just in general, how do you see efficiencies and maybe offsetting some of the inflation the industry is seeing?

David Rockecharlie

Management

Yes, I mean, look, I think our teams have done a really good job today and we have done a good job combating it this year. There is always room for continued improvement. So don’t want to overpromise there, but you know, we are driving every day to reduce our cycle times and to, you know, do the things that we have done this year to reduce costs. So I think you will see continued, you know, efforts on that. And then really, you know, it is I think as we noted earlier, it is really just how active is the sector going to be and ultimately where do we land there in terms of some of the supply chain constraints that we have seen. But again, like I said, it has moderated, but we do see continued pressure. So, hopefully not to the same extent that we have seen over rate of change this year, but we are seeing pressure and we are constantly pushing back, trying to be creative to continue to lower our cost structure.

Lloyd Byrne

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Tarek Hamid with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

HI this is [indiscernible] for Tarek. Thanks for taking our questions. So first you mentioned that you are planning to increase completion activity in the first half of 2023. Just wanted to see or get your thoughts on what you are expecting for production cadence entering 4Q but also through 2023 for any high level commentary you could provide.

Brandi Kendall

Management

Hey, Evan, it is brandy. So as we hit on in the prepared remarks, we do expect production to decline slightly quarter on quarter, and that is just really driven by till activity. As we don’t provide quarterly guidance but would want you to what Ben mentioned earlier, just as we are thinking about 2023 and that is going to be more of a maintenance level. So would expect on an average for the year, we would be plus or minus 140,000 a day.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

And then also I was wonder if you could provide a little bit more color on working capital in the third quarter, if there is any kind of carry forward into the fourth quarter.

Brandi Kendall

Management

Good question. Again, it is Brandi. We would expect that to, to normalize into the fourth quarter. There is a little bit of noise just related to the Uinta transaction but would expect that to normalize going forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Great, thanks. That is all from us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I would like to turn the call back over to David Rockecharlie, CEO for closing remarks. Over to you, sir.

David Rockecharlie

Management

Great. Thank you all again for your time and your support of the business. As you hopefully heard today, I think that the business is doing really well and we look forward to keeping you updated as we move forward. Thank you very much.