Earnings Labs

Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 6, 2023

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Transcript

Rob Fink

Management

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Hosting today’s call is Doron Arazi, Ceragon’s Chief Executive Officer and Ronen Stein, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on this call, including projected financial results and the company’s future initiatives, future events, business outlook, development efforts and their potential outcome, anticipated progress and plans and results and timelines and other matters, constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and as amended the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Ceragon intends forward-looking terminology, such as believes, expects, may, will, should, anticipates, plans or similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions of Ceragon’s management, actual results or achievements may differ materially, as they are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties as the occurrence and timing of the consummation of the transaction with Siklu and the potential failure to satisfy the conditions of closing of such transaction, the effects of the evolving nature of the recent war in Gaza, as well as other risks and uncertainties that are described in Ceragon’s most recent annual report on Form 20-F and is updated from time to time in Ceragon other filings with the SEC, including today's filing of the earnings press release, all of which are expressly incorporated here on in by reference. Forward-looking statements relate to the date additionally made and are not intended to be predictions of future events or results. There could be no assurance that they will prove to be accurate and Ceragon takes no obligation to update them. Ceragon's public filings are available on the Securities and Exchange Commission's website at sec.gov and may also be obtained from Ceragon's website at ceragon.com. Also, today's call will include certain non-GAAP financial measures. For reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results, please see the table attached to the press release that was issued earlier today, which is posted on the investor relations section of Ceragon's website. With all that said, I can now turn the call over to Doron. Doron, the call is yours.

Doron Arazi

Management

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Ceragon Networks delivered another strong quarter, our third solid quarter in what is expected to be the strongest year of non-GAAP operating and net profit since 2018. Our strategy to increase market share within the private networks and with smaller service providers is bearing fruit. Since the start of this year, we have received initial orders from 20 new customers in these categories, and we expect our performance in this growth market will be reinforced by the pending acquisition of Siklu. Siklu’s strengths align well with our strategy to diversify our business beyond our core of T1 and T2 service providers with a broader range of solutions that can help us expand our addressable market, further pursuing private networks and small service provider’s opportunities to accelerate revenue growth and expand margin. Ceragon continues to successfully navigate macroeconomic challenges affecting our industry, demonstrating the durable demand for our solutions, primarily in North America and India. Similarly, the ongoing hostilities in the Gaza Strip have not had any material impact on our business to date. While we are proud to be a company headquartered in Israel, the majority of Ceragon employees are based outside of Israel, close to the customers and partners. The vast majority of our manufacturing and our suppliers are also located outside of Israel. We have a detailed contingency plan which anticipates conflicts in the region, and this planning has enabled us to minimize the impact of the current events. Following the horrific terrorist attacks of October 7th, approximately 3.5% of our total employee base has been called up to active duty in the Israeli Defense Force. Based on our analysis, we don't anticipate this level to materially change and don't expect it to disrupt our operations in any meaningful way. For…

Ronen Stein

Management

Thank you, Doron, and good morning, everyone. As Doron outlined, this was another strong quarter for Ceragon. So, it is important to keep in mind that we are a project-driven business, and as such, there is inherent variability in results from quarter-to-quarter. Because of this, we analyze our bookings, revenue, and gross margins, as well as other key performance indicators over a 12-month period, a duration which we believe better reflects the underlying business trends. In addition, to help you understand the results, I will be referring primarily to non-GAAP financials. For more information regarding our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations of these measures, we refer you to today's press release. Let me now review the actual results. Revenues were $87.3 million, up 10.9% from $78.6 million in Q3 2022, and 1.3% compared to $86.2 million in Q2 2023. When we take the trailing 12-month view, our revenue was $332.4 million, an increase compared to last quarter's trailing 12-month revenue of $323.7 million. Our strongest regions in terms of revenues for the quarter were India and North America, with $29.9 million and $22.5 million, respectively, in line with the continuous strong demand we see in these regions. Our third strongest region in terms of revenues was Latin America, with $12.9 million. We had two customers in the third quarter that contributed more than 10% of our revenues. Gross profit for the third quarter on a non-GAAP basis was $30.4 million, an increase of 8.8% compared to $28 million in Q3 2022, and essentially unchanged compared to $30.4 million in Q2 2023. Our non-GAAP gross margin was 34.9% compared to 35.5% in Q3 2022 and 35.3% in Q2 2023. We continue to achieve high gross margins, mainly as revenues from North America continue to maintain its high level and…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from the line of Alex Henderson from Needham. Please go ahead.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Great, thank you so much for letting me ask the question here and my thoughts are with you guys given the horrible terrorist attack that's turned [Ph] you guys into war. Hope everybody's safe and your families are okay. I wanted to hit a couple of quick questions. The first one is, can you give us some sense of the size of the inventory write-down in the quarter? And is that now completed or do you expect a similar kind of write-down in the fourth quarter as you anticipate launching the products in the first quarter of next year?

Doron Arazi

Management

Regarding the level of write-offs, I would say that there was approximately $1.6 million of write-off that is beyond the regular write-offs. So it's in total, it's around $2 million. We do not anticipate any additional write-offs but this is being monitored every quarter. So I cannot say that we know now about any expected write-offs expect from the regular model that we have.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

So if I adjust for that write-off here, gross margins would have come in at 36.7%. Can you talk about why that would not be the case again in the December quarter?

Doron Arazi

Management

Well, the impact of the inventory is just something that we cannot anticipate exactly the mixture in the next quarter. There could be different paths to achieve our targets for the next quarter. And as you see, we still have some room of change in the revenues. So it can be higher, it can be a little bit lower. We cannot anticipate that exactly and provide guidance on that.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Again, if I back out the $1.6 million, you're 36.7, is it reasonable to think that you're in the 35% plus range, not only in the fourth quarter, but for that matter with these new products launching, having higher margins in 2024, shouldn't your margins be of 35% plus going forward?

Doron Arazi

Management

So we have shown that we can reach a higher numbers of higher percentage of margins, even to 35.5. And we even discussed that we can reach even 36%. But this is something that we have to make some room also for any other changes in mixture, in a mixture of products, software, yes or no, and other mixture of revenues from different regions. So as long as we don't know exactly the final revenues mixture, it's very difficult to predict it. Usually there are some something that can take us down, as you can see to the level of 35, 36. But yes, in the last few quarters, we have been in the high 34 to the high 35.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Okay, so looking out into the 2024 timeframe and just looking back at the 2023 window, just to be clear, the supply chain problems did not cause a boom bust in your revenue recognition and the timing of your revenue. So we're not looking at an overage on 2023 that's then setting up a tougher comp in 2024, which has been expressed by some of the companies that are in the same category. Is that a fair statement?

Doron Arazi

Management

I'm sorry, I couldn't hear you well. Can you repeat the question please?

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Sure, so a number of companies have understated revenues in prior periods because they couldn't get parts. Then when the supply chain improved, they over shipped relative to demand and have very tough comps. I don't believe that that happened with the Cerragon. Is Cerragon's 2023 numbers are normal demand numbers, correct? There is no boom bust in the, or bust boom in the shipments because of supply chain. Is that a fair statement?

Ronen Stein

Management

Let me take this, Alex. If you are talking business-wise, as I said, we expect book-to-bill ratio in this year to be above one. And that means that probably the short answer is that we don't feel that we over shipped or over delivered this year relative to the true demand that we are seeing now from the market.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Perfect, so you've made the comment in the prepared remarks that you expect similar levels of growth. You're growing at about a 10% clip now. Is it fair for us to think of 2024 as a 10% growth year?

Ronen Stein

Management

I think, I did not make the exact comment like you got it. I think that we do expect to grow next year as well, organically setting aside Siklu’s contribution. I think we can get to high single digit, maybe touch 10%, but let's not forget that this year is a year of very, very strong demand where we started with a relatively low baseline in 2023. So all-in-all, I think we can be in high single digit growth touching 10%, maybe slightly below. And that's in terms of organic growth.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

Looking at the fourth quarter, just to nail it down a little bit, you talk about $23 million in OpEx, which is a pretty good increase sequentially and year-over-year, quite a substantial increase. I assume that some of that's in the sales and marketing. I assume some of it's in the R&D line for the new products. Is it reasonable to think that the gross margins can be robust enough in 4Q to allow you to produce close to that 10% operating margin again in the quarter, or is that stretching?

Doron Arazi

Management

You want to take it, Ronen? Please go ahead.

Ronen Stein

Management

Yes, we do believe that this investment is important. And as I mentioned, primarily in the sales and marketing, we feel that in order to achieve our target in growing in the specific segments of private networks and small to medium service providers, we have to invest and to use our profitability right now in these quarters for some investment to the future. So there may be some fluctuation in the profitability in the operating profit percentage from revenues, but as we don't know exactly the gross margin that is expected, hopefully we will not be much less than the current operating profit.

Alex Henderson

Analyst

All right, I'll see the floor and go back into the queue.

Doron Arazi

Management

Thank you, Alex.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question today comes from the line of [Indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning, thank you. And I just want to echo Alex's sentiments as well, and wishing you and your families all the best in safety. I wonder if he, thanks. You guys talked about the marketing efforts on, to reach out to expand your business with private networks and smaller customers. Could you talk about, are you adding personnel there? Are there other sort of more temporary expenses that you'll be incurring in the near term, or it would be additional personnel and thus therefore more permanent addition to the sales and marketing level? Thank you.

Doron Arazi

Management

Yes, Roman [Ph], thanks for this question. It's basically the combination. First of all, we have kind of beefed up our sales force in North America primarily, that is focusing on this private network segment. So that's one thing for us to stay. And obviously, as these guys start bringing business, it will also help us to grow our booking and obviously the revenue. The second part is more of a variable part. It's an investment in marketing. Let's not forget that Ceragon is very, very well-known brand in the T1, T2 operators across the world. We are just building the brand in the private networks and the smaller players. And that requires certain marketing investments. Now, this could be up and down depending on campaigns, depending on the marketing strategy. So that is the part that is more of a variable expenditure.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, and just on the geographic focus standpoint, you've obviously made some penetration in North America with the private networks. Looking forward, do you perceive continued penetration in North America, expansion into Europe potentially? What are some of the geographic regions you want to target there? Thanks, Doron.

Doron Arazi

Management

So generally speaking, first of all, I mentioned 20 new customers in the domain of private networks and small operators. One thing is that this is widespread, but definitely North America has a very significant portion in this success. And just for you to understand, we are not counting every $5,000 new customer. The aggregate amount of this 20 new customers, initial orders is amounting to eight digit booking. So it's not an insignificant amount. We see the opportunity in many regions and we are actually changing the structure of our sales force to be led by segment rather than by geography in each and every region. So for example, in Europe, now we have three categories. One is chasing T1 big operators, one is chasing private networks and one is chasing smaller transactions via channels. So the focus on private networks is increasing. And as I said, the wins are not just in North America, although in North America, we are very, so to speak, pleased with the progress, but this is meant to be a global effort, not just in North America.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great, thank you very much, Doron.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] You have no further questions. Please proceed to closing statement.

Doron Arazi

Management

To close, we are encouraged by our year-to-date results and we believe that we are well positioned to achieve self-sustaining cash flows as we execute our growth strategy. We're excited about the opportunities in front of Ceragon. We have commenced our strategic planning and budgeting process for 2024 and we anticipate achieving organic growth business next year. We announced a pending closing strategic acquisition that we believe will accelerate Ceragon’s strategy execution and can provide incremental growth opportunities and extend our margin expansion efforts. We expect to communicate our guidance for 2024 when we announce Q4 2023 results. I look forward to updating you further on our next quarterly call. Have a good day, everyone.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Goodbye.