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Cosan S.A. (CSAN)

Q2 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 14, 2014

$4.18

+4.76%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Cosan's Second Quarter of 2014 Results Conference Call. Today with us we have Mr. Marcos Lutz, CEO; Mr. Marcelo Martins, CFO and Investor Relations Officer; and Mr. Guilherme Machado, Investor Relations Manager. We would like to inform you that this event is recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the Company's presentation. After Cosan's remarks, there will be a question and answer session for industry analysts. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star zero to reach the operator. The audio and slideshow of this presentation are available through live webcast at www.cosan.com.br/ir. The slides can also be downloaded from the webcast platform. Before let me mention that forward-looking statements will be made under the Safe Harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Cosan's management, and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Cosan and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Martins, you may begin your conference.

Marcelo Eduardo Martins

Management

Good morning everyone. I like to start our earnings call today with the consolidated pro-forma figure for Cosan S.A. We saw a jump of 9% in net revenues in this quarter in relation to the second quarter of 2013 was the revenues of R$9.6 billion in this quarter. In terms of EBITDA, we saw an increase of 6% in EBITDA in comparison with the second quarter of 2013 with the margin of 9.2% compared to 9.4% last year. Net income, we have a net income of R$104 million in this quarter in comparison for the loss of R$2 million the second quarter of last year. I think it’s worth mentioning that in the equivalent quarter of 2013; we had a big impact driving from the FX variance, which basically was the main issue for the net loss in that quarter. We didn’t have that same effect this year and in addition to that we had an increase in the equity result of Raízen of R$197 million during this quarter. While moving to the business – different businesses. I like to start with Raízen fuels where we had a jump in the volumes out of 9% basically in every single business line. So we’re coming from 5.6 billion liters of fuel sold last year, 6.1 billion liters in this quarter. In terms of net revenues we saw an improvement of 16% resulting R$13.7 billion in comparison with the R$11.8 in the equivalent quarter of 2013. The EBITDA margin saw a reduction of 0.4% from 3.5% to 3.1% but we had a jump of 3% in EBITDA compared to R$470 million in the last quarter I am sorry in quarter in the equivalent quarter of last year for R$128 million in this quarter. We decided to breakdown the difference in the EBITDA…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Paula Kovarsky with Itau BBA. Paula Kovarsky – Itau BBA: Hi, I have two follow-up questions from the previous call. The first one is can you possibly share with us the impact of trading activities for Raizen Energia in this quarter? And the other question is understand that you guys do not intend to provide any guidance revision for Raizen Energia in terms of CapEx for now, but is there room for further reductions in the CapEx for that business unit this year and going forward?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

I think was the trading impact in the Raizen Energia was R$20 million roughly during this quarter. And then in terms of the CapEx, we’re obviously trying to reduce even further the CapEx for the company. As you mentioned to the market of few times, which is one of our biggest objectives moving forward. And we do what is possible, we know have anything to anticipate right now so it will continue to be the focus of the management of the company. In addition to that I think it’s fair to say that we’re seeing big improvement in terms of cost reduction, which was one of the main factors responsible for compensating a reduction in the sugarcane approximately the (indiscernible) of lower sugar and ethanol production as well. Paula Kovarsky – Itau BBA: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christian Audi with Santander. Christian Audi – Santander Investment Securities Inc: Thanks Marcos, Marcelo. I had two questions. The first one, Marcelo, touch on the last point you made during the presentation. I just wanted to make sure I understood it correctly. As you look at fuel distribution, you expect, for example, EBITDA per cubic meter to regain a higher level than what we saw this second quarter. And are you already seeing that type of improvement through the month of July? And then the second question was a broader one. Marcos, maybe if you could just do a general overview. When you look at your main businesses and we are faced with the second half of the year where economic activity will remain challenging. Where do you have higher conviction among your businesses that the fundamentals will really remain in place despite these weaker economic variables? And where do you think, when you have to be realistic, consider there are risks that fundamentals may be more negatively impacted as the economy slows down?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Christian, first we have not seen the gross margins of the fuel business shrink this last quarter. So, the EBITDA margin actually had a negative impact provided by those onetime events we mentioned. So, yes, we not only delivered, we already see and we already saw the maintenance of our margins and we expect a better – a lot better EBITDA margins than last quarter. In this quarter we are do now. So, this is quite straight forward and then actually starting to answer your second question. We see this business is a very resilient one. Despite having with a both adjacent and B2B diesel exposed to GDP, the bulk of the business I would say we’ll be let’s say Brazilians and will actually be on the same levels and with some growth, pretty much in scenario we foresee today. So this is a very resilient business. Comgas again is resilient too; we might see a lower volume on the industrial side that’s correct. We don’t see though a big impact on the negative side happening on the full year for Comgas. On Cosan moves is where I see again a better second half than the first half but this would not compensate the let’s say whole that the second quarter putting our budget for the Cosan lubs if I would put that in that – let’s say internal rate it’s probably the one business in the Cosan portfolio, that will won’t need the budget on the EBITDA side. We might have good surprises on the end of the year; the second half is normally the strongest half of the year. But again we actually missed big number on this last half EBITDA let say compensate for that on the second half. But the second half I would say will…

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

With the lack of our best estimates, we have our base case at the end of the year, okay. But again educated guess, but again, not that well educated, because those stuff because its happen we’re starting the process. And this will be lets say a process throughout election times I mean actually the timing for this you don’t anticipate problems but for us a big question mark is around timing. Christian Audi – Santander Investment Securities Inc: Okay thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ravi Jain of HSBC. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Hi, good morning. I had two quick questions. On the Rumo front, should we continue to expect the lower transported volumes for the balance of the year? And looking more into 2015 as to should this be normalized once the duplication between Campinas and the Port of Santos is completed? And my second question is on Comgas. When do you expect to finalize a new rack with the regulator? And do you expect the commercial and residential segments to pick up growth in the next 6 to 12 months, given that they have really strong potential?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Ravi, first a slight correction I must tell is a point around volume in fact we have transported all the volume that we will plan what happened was really on the revenue side where we unilaterally decided not to charge fees and things for now given that there is a – let’s say an armistice on the judicial issue against ALL, so that was the main thing and I would say you expect this for the remaining of the year. On the timings as I mentioned I mean on the lets say on the highly has 11 months to approve a deal okay so the worthy scenario for us will be 11 months we don’t see this happening from our brief discussion initial discussion with them we understand they are very focusing in judging this weekly I think quickly should mean three, four months. So the timing would be but again its tough for me to I mean we should not assume this in your decision because again it is just a guess even that the law will say that we have up to 11 months. We have many cases where CADE made this type of call in a month, but again given the size of this impact in Brazilian economy this might take a little longer. So that’s the – and what was your – about capacity I see probably in the next six months that application by the Brazilian run is paying for from the beginning the contract. This probably will be concluded so completed other way presented will be duplicated pretty much in six months from now, which will debottleneck a big chunk of capacity there. What is your other question? Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Yes, and once that is duplicated, do you expect that the margins and the pricing of the transportation business will get back a little more normalized? Or do you still expect to see these challenges?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

No, again I think this will probably get normalized the thing is – there is a very large effort and actually making those let’s those systems the real system all over the place to have the capacity and let’s say the reliability needed for the market. So if you ask me, let’s say short-term timing will be tough for us to answer, because we are still not with the information in detail that we will have after the CADE approval. After the CADE approval is when we actually can really start putting together, let’s say the management and let’s say, I’d say that the programming and let’s say the management structure that we believe is right will be done after that. So at this point we have very limited access and no influence in the company’s daily operation. So timing wise in four months if CADE approved as is when we will start to answer the questions as scheduled or how many months will it take to get to this level of capacity to this level of profitability and probably six months from that approval is when we will be able to come back to you and say you know what this is the plan, this is let’s say the expected returns on the plan and this is actually what we will do and this is the timing that those things will happen. So at this point we know the direction a very clear direction and the potential of other things. But it is tough to define the timing at this point. Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Sure, thank you so much. And on the Comgas just quickly as to when do you expect to finalize the new rack with the regulator?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Beginning of next year Ravi Jain – HSBC Securities: Okay. Thank you that’s helpful.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from (indiscernible).

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. Just going back to the issue of the nature of your business, as you say, there are a number of parts of your business which are fairly predictable and steady businesses. Yet overall as a Company, I find it very frustrating quarter by quarter the surprises that happen each quarter, the one-offs. The sort of known-unknowns. Do you think there's a time out there when the overall performance of the group becomes rather more steady and predictable? Or is it just the nature of the businesses that you're in that we have to live with these events quarter by quarter?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Mark, we believe we understand your point and obviously, if you look at this company since 2008, this was basically when we started this transformational movement to diversify our portfolio away from sugar and ethanol. And since then we’ve been making essential acquisition non-stop, I mean, if you look at Comgás three years ago. And then last year we had the consolidation of Comgás then we have the permission of Rumo and then we announced the merger with ALL and previously we had Raizen and then before Raizen we had the acquisition of ExxonMobil of assets. So, first, I think that there is last six years have been extremely active for us and it’s very hard to predict a business it gets involving like that. I think that we have reached the point right now. I think that the spin-off, the logistics business is going to help us tremendously because we’re basically separating a business that is much more volatile and we’re going to a transformational profit as well, from the business that is more stable. And there has a more predictable tax generation. Sugar and ethanol is commodity, I mean, it is a business I will keep with its volatility, because of the nature of that product results. If you look at Cosan, the Raizen Combustiveis, I mean, we’ve mainly have had in the past some volatility within the quarters, but the result of the year was pretty much inline with what we indicated to the market, maybe it’s harder for us to predict what’s going to happen within the quarters. And again even within the quarters, when you look at what happen with the fuels business, you’ll see that there is a pattern. I mean, the first quarter is better than second, the third is better than the second and then the fourth is the best quarter of the year, which is normally the way it works, I mean historically. I know it can’t be frustrating sometimes we’re trying to disclose as much as information as possible. So that you understand what are the factors that impact the business. I think that were the creation of the Cosan logistics with much easier to explain the business is – in the business is because they are completely different businesses impacted by completely different factors. And hopefully they will improve the way the market will read for the business, it’s going to have on immediate reflection in the stock price that’s what we expect. But, I understand what you’re saying and now we’re trying to do all we can to minimize this impact.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And the thinking behind the spinning off of the Logistics business. I mean it seems only a short while ago you were seeking to do deals in this area and build it up as a core business. So what has changed there?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Well, Rumo is a company was started (indiscernible) right, as you know in 2009, 2010. It I think 2012 we’ve been trying to acquire a relevant stake in ALL. We didn’t succeed after some ups and downs in our negotiations up until six months ago. When you basically managed you a lift recent agreement with some of the shareholders of the company. And now, we will waiting for the approval of the antitrust, I mean what happens is that and we started Rumo as I said with two terminals in an investment of R$100 million, and stay we have a business there is worth for R$1 billion. And now we’re trying to improve this business even further through this merger with the ALL. And again this is probably the biggest transformation of portfolio, but we haven’t concluded that yet, which we something we expect to happen until the end of this year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

But is it a recognition that the nature of this business is very capital intensive and very -- it takes a long, long time. Is that part of the issue here?

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Yes, it is. It’s a capital incentive business, because as you know this integration was Rumo and our willingness to expand the capacity in the railroad, we’re going to invest with some special amount of money. We’re doing that these are the assumption that money is going to come in this part from the NDS and will also be able to get an extension in the session agreement from the regulators, but it is certainly in nature a very different business from the energy business, because I mean, the cash flow generation in the business project sometime because of the investments we need to make throughout in the energy business, we have existing cash flow generation, which will keep improving overtime.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts. I would like to turn the floor over to Mr. Marcos to proceed with his closing segment.

Marcos Marinho Lutz

Analyst

Well, I like to thank you again for participating in our call, we are going to keep you updated with the further - move and especially related to Rumo ALL transaction and we hope to talk to you very soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude Cosan Limited second quarter results. Thank you very much for your participation.