Earnings Labs

CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 30, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CoStar Group Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, the conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Richard Simonelli. Please go ahead, sir.

Richard Simonelli

Analyst

Thank you, very much operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CoStar Group's Third Quarter 2014 Conference Call. Thanks for joining us. Before I turn the call over to Andy, I have some really important facts for you that I believe you'll find quite informative. First, certain portions of this discussion contain forward-looking statements, which involve many risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, those stated in our October 29, 2014, press release on third quarter results and our filings with the SEC, including our Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2014, under the heading Risk Factors. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to CoStar at the time of this call, and we assume no obligation to update these statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As a reminder, today's call is being broadcast live and in color over the Internet at www.costargroup.com, where you can also find CoStar's Investor Relations page. A replay will be available approximately 1 hour after this call concludes and will be available for approximately 30 days. To listen to the replay, call (800) 475-6701 within the U.S. or Canada or (320) 365-3844 outside the United States. The access code is 338195, and a replay will be available on our website soon after the call concludes. [Operator Instructions]. I'll now turn the call over to Andy Florance. Andy?

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Richard, I can't thank you enough. Welcome, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to report strong financial results in the third quarter of 2014. The investments we are making in our business are paying off, and I believe that they will continue to drive top and bottom line growth for many years to come. Our revenue exceeded $153 million compared to $112 million in the third quarter of 2013, up 36% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA reached $51.8 million for the quarter. We have communicated that one of our primary intermediate goals is to reach $1 billion in revenue with a 40% margin by 2018. So we feel that crossing a $600 million revenue run rate along with a $200 million adjusted EBITDA run rate is encouraging process towards that important goal. EBITDA grew to $44 million in the third quarter of 2014 compared to $30 million in the third quarter of 2013, and non-GAAP earnings per share grew to $0.87 per share in the same period. Our annual subscription business continues to enjoy a high trailing 12-month renewal rate of 92% with 98% renewal for those customers with us 5 years or longer. Before we get into the main part of the call, I just want to give you an update on what we see out in the commercial real estate markets right now. Market fundamentals continue to improve as a new peak in total employment fuels a real need for space. The recovery in the office, industrial and retail property types has broadly supported growth in occupancy, rents and values. Capital continues to be very attracted to real estate with sales up to 8% above last year's elevated levels. Plus, additional capital is now driving ramped-up office, industrial and multifamily construction. Demand for U.S. real estate remains…

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Tomorrow.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Tomorrow. So I'd ask the Apartments.com salespeople not to get involved in any Halloween parties, just hit a new record. Many of these properties we're signing up were advertising on competing sites before signing on to Apartments.com. Sylvan Gardens in Philadelphia, River Bluff in Lexington and Marchmont [ph] Terrace in Cleveland, were all advertising on ApartmentGuide, and they're now advertising on Apartments.com. We are taking advantage of our superior site traffic and dramatic lead growth and seizing the green. In April of this year when we acquired Apartments.com, their revenues had grown 9.6% year-over-year in the prior year. That growth has now almost doubled to 18% year-over-year. The Apartments.com sales force is delivering very solid results. Congratulations to Brad and his team. We are very satisfied with the progress we have made. And similar to our experience with LoopNet, we believe we will continue to drive markedly improved postacquisition results. In just 30 months since the close of the LoopNet acquisition, we have achieved nearly $80 million of cross-selling revenue. When added to the over $20 million in cost synergies, we have moved above the $100 million mark in total synergies. We believe we'll continue to have significant upside for the LoopNet cross-selling opportunity for many years to come. I think it is worth noting over the past 6 consecutive quarters, we've experienced double-digit year-over-year increases in the average revenue per user for the LoopNet Premium membership while also dramatically increasing the number of paid listings by 67% since the close of the acquisition to -- we're now running over 50% of all the listings being paid. When added to successfully signing annual subscription contracts and dramatically increasing unique monthly visitors, we are very pleased with our success in the online marketplace space. The LoopNet Marketplace had 45.3 million profile…

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Wow. Hold on, you guys, I need to help Andy get the oxygen tank turned on. Hold on. Hear, Andy. Here you go.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

I'm only 92.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

So I have a stopwatch in front of me from Rich, so I have to go fast. But the problem is, is that legal keeps extending my script. So if I read fast through parts of it, those are the parts that are very repetitive but, apparently, very necessary. As Andy mentioned, we're very pleased with our performance in the third quarter of 2014. CoStar Group's organic business continues to show solid top line growth, and EBITDA margins continue to expand while making great progress integrating Apartments.com. The strong year-to-date performance has created an opportunity for us to further invest in our core proprietary data and information assets. We have begun to do so, and we will continue through to 2015 to accelerate future revenue growth. Starting with CoStar's results for the third quarter 2014, the company reported $153.1 million of revenue, an increase of 36% compared to the third quarter of 2013. On a pro forma basis, our year-over-year revenue growth accelerated to 13.9% for the third quarter of 2014 versus the pro forma third quarter of 2013 adjusted to include Apartments.com revenue. EBITDA increased to -- $13.9 million to $43.7 million in the third quarter of 2014, up from $29.8 million, or 47%, for Q3 last year. We reported adjusted EBITDA of over $50 million, $51.8 million to be exact, for the third quarter of 2014, which is an increase of $14.1 million, or approximately 37%, compared to the third quarter of last year. Non-GAAP net income for Q3 of 2014 was $27.9 million, or $0.87 per diluted share, which is a 38% increase in the -- from the third quarter of 2013. Gross margin was $112.1 million for the quarter or 73.3% of revenue. This is an increase from 71.8% of revenue in Q3 of 2013 reflecting the continued strength of the business model. Reconciliations of non-GAAP net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and all other financial measures discussed in this call under GAAP basis results shown in detail along with definitions for those terms in our press release issued yesterday are available on our website at www.costar.com (sic) [www.costargroup.com]. And if you have any questions, just email jcoleman@costar.com.

Jonathan M. Coleman

Analyst

I see some real love here.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Jon is sitting right next to me if you guys can't figure that out. We had words this morning. Cash investments of $507.3 million as of September 30, 2014, an increase of $40.8 million since June of 2014, which -- was driven by the largest quarterly cash flow from operations in our history. Short and long-term debt totaled $390 million. Cash investments, along with the undrawn $225 million revolving credit facility, remains available. Now I'll give some additional color on a few metrics to highlight our strong performance in the third quarter of 2014. As Andy mentioned, we achieved $15.4 million in net new sales of subscription services and annual contracts in the third quarter, an increase of 12.1% over the third quarter of 2013. We're really pleased to be driving double-digit growth in net new sales again in light of the significant changes we made and initiated in late 2013 and the first half of 2014. We expect to carry good sales momentum into the fourth quarter this year and beyond throughout next year, but I should note that we recorded $15.8 million in net new sales and renewal contracts in the fourth quarter of last year. This is a strong performance, and it did include 1 large deal for approximately $1 million of annual contract value. We don't guide or project sales numbers, but internally, we plan to evaluate the sales growth in the fourth quarter not including the large deal. We have approximately 516 salespeople across the company, of that, 220 are U.S. CoStar field reps, which is up from 172 1 year ago, and 128 are Apartment.com field sellers, up from 80 at the same time as the acquisition. Additionally, we have 108 inside sales reps across CoStar, Loop and Apartments, 20 field reps in the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question from the line of Andre Benjamin with Goldman Sachs.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

First question is regarding the organic growth. Is there a way that you can potentially break that out versus the acquisitions growth for Apartments this quarter and similarly, if you could slice it one more way, maybe the growth for the entire core platform, excluding both LoopNet and Apartment, just so we can understand how those 3 buckets are growing?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think, I basically gave people the exact number. If you included a pro forma of Apartments, year-over-year was 13.9%. Apartments was growing last -- when we bought them at about 10%. Now it's growing at 18%. That's probably higher than normal because some of the conversions that we talked about. But I think in general the entire business is sort of growing in that 12%, 13%, 14%, 15% range with some pieces growing higher and some pieces growing lower than others.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And on the incremental investment spending that you talked about, I know you don't have guidance yet, but how should we think about that spend plus the existing costs both fixed and variable in terms of margins? Again, I know you called out a couple individual line items but just directionally, should we be thinking flattish margins, up or down, just directionally?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Sir, yes, I mean, I think you can calculate it. I mean, essentially the $20 million to $25 million is all going to be your cost of sales. So, obviously, you can look at sort of what run rate -- where we're at this year. And if you add that for next year, I didn't calculate it, but it's probably a couple percent on gross margin. And then again, once you ramp up the headcount, then you'll have a basically a suppressing of margins for 2 or 3 quarters as we ramp up headcount. And then they should continue to grow again after that. We've already begun that process, so I think we already have 150 people here, and that's really been within the last 3 or 4 weeks. So you'll see that impact in the fourth quarter gross margins. And then it will continue into the first quarter and probably a little bit into the second quarter as we basically fully ramp up the hiring. So I would expect pressure on the gross margin line for 2 quarters possibly 3. And then I think it goes back to sort of as looked at it prior at a growing -- whatever it was growing, up 1%-or-so a quarter.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

And we're also considering some incremental marketing investments to look at the mix that we're addressing. So these are all different factors that would give you that same [ph] result.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Brian, I think you've redefined fast talking. Pretty impressive stuff.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Thank you.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

When I look it kind of -- forgetting the ins and outs and the timing of some of the investments you're making in some of the product transitions that you're talking about, Andy, you talked about this sales force productivity platform combined with new products and the combination of CoStar Suite and Analytics, I guess. When I think about the sales force productivity, which is ramping, and the power of a single sign-on, as we move past this sort of products we transition that's taking place at LoopNet and Apartments and you think about the sales force becoming more productive, is it reasonable to think that as we head into '16 perhaps, the organic revenue growth could even accelerate beyond the mid-teens level that you're seeing today sort of despite these moving pieces?

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Sure. I feel very good about all these pieces coming together. Obviously, they're coming together in a pretty large scale, but there is a very nice dovetail between debt and equity, Apartments.com products, both in marketing and information, and traditional business. One of the nice things about Apartments.com is it's giving us additional scale in order to justify a deeper, stronger footprint at the local level, and it gives us additional relationships into people that may own a series of apartment buildings in Richmond, Virginia, but they also own some office buildings, just in recent retail properties. So it's just increasing the scale of our distribution channel, and they're all interconnected. Very little of it's disconnected. So it's -- and in particular, when you look at things like the LoopNet customer base for information was historically stronger in areas where we didn't have as much scale and we didn't have as active a field sales force. With the merger with Apartments.com, we are building a much stronger combined sales force down into tertiary markets and secondary markets in the United States, which are still huge markets. So it's a lot of work to put these pieces together, and you do get some frictional bumps here and there as you should do it. But it looks very, very positive for the story that you'll be able to -- we hope we'll be able to communicate in 2015 will be directionally clear that could lead to something more impressive than the teens.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

And just to add onto that the, so -- I mean, clearly, we're -- there's a lot of moving pieces in '15. It's an investment year and sort of a pivotal year with a lot of pieces moving. So I think we both believe '16 growth rates can be higher. The only thing I would just caution everybody on, and I hate to always be the guy to say that, that we plan on growing and accelerating growth and through the sales force and all the initiatives that we're doing, but remember, you lose about 1.5% to 2% every year at the size that we're at. So we 100% have to generate more and more dollars from all these products and services in order to continue to maintain and be in that 12%, 13%, 14%, 15% range. So I agree with what Andy said, I just want to add that there's a mechanical modeling thing that you have to just be aware of.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Are there any sales force sort of characteristics, individual salesperson characteristics or skill sets that you think you need as the business transitions that you don't have already in house?

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Well, for sure. I mean, the people we've got, there are -- as we grow, there are a number of very diverse roles within our sales force. So like in a Washington, D.C., you've got farmers who are dealing with our major-market customers. So we have 150 customers represent a disproportionate amount of our revenue in Washington. So it's farmer customers, their ability to maintain those relationships. We have debt and equity farmers, debt and equity hunters. We've got -- now we've got the general sales force dealing with the core of the business and then Apartments.com, farmers and apartments.com hunters and management levels in there. So we are able to find lots of good homes for the salespeople we've got. The kinds of things we're looking to probably build are management roles with that sort of thing we love to find where someone is good at selling lead generation and information or at marketing and information. The good news is that over 100 of our traditionally information-focused salespeople on the CoStar side have proven their ability to sell significant amounts of advertising revenue in the past year. So we're getting a sales force now that can really be multifunction, play multiple roles, bat left or bat right. So it's an important thing. We're definitely, definitely tweaking it, structuring it and looking for some new slots. We're very happy with the core we have.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to Sara Gubins with BoA Merrill Lynch.

Sara Gubins - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

It was a very solid net new sales number. But I'm wondering what LoopNet sales were like during the quarter given 25% growth and core CoStar?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes. So the LoopNet sort of an annual contract sales were down a little bit compared to last year. Prior to that could be some of the things that we're tweaking. We are tinkering with it and testing various things, which I think we talked about pretty extensively on the call. So we are looking to transition LoopNet to a pure marketing solution. So I think that will probably have some impact for the next few quarters. But I think, overall, very strong quarter overall for the sales group and, obviously, for the core CoStar.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

We also have minor impact from significantly increasing our credit card security level. And then -- which caused credit card expiration changes and the like in our billing, which had some temporary impacts. But the net -- it's a net positive because we dramatically increased our security level on [ph] credit cards.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

And I think -- and one more thing that just come to mind, Sara, which I think we've talk about prior is that as you take an entire contract base of $80 million or $100 million or whatever it was when we bought it, which there was no annual contracts and will -- in the longer term go through a similar thing with Apartments, and you start successfully moving them onto annual contracts, that's a huge deal to have somebody renew on the annual contracts. But what that does happen is as you start getting to the bulk of them, where now we're at 40%, 50% of them is, as you start getting even at a 90% renewal rate, you start getting those cancels in there, which will affect that sort of -- some of those numbers. So again, I think, all positives. I think things are all moving in the right direction. We're really happy with it, but there's 2 or 3 things that I think affect it.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

And when you're feeling that things are pretty solid, we are making some choices to do some things that are the right decision for 9 months out but are not the right decision for this month.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Brandon Dobell with William Blair. Brandon Burke Dobell - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: I guess, given where the kind of the implied EBITDA for next year would go, if we would build into the model, the lower revenues like you talked about, Brian, and the spending, the implication is the ramp exiting '15 towards the 40% margin is a -- I wouldn't call it a vertical -- straight up vertical, but it's going to be pretty close to get from where we're going to finish the year to that 40% run rate by the end of '18. Maybe some color on how we think about the -- you're guys confidence in hitting that ramp or the drivers for what should be and then the incremental margins that probably have to be in the 80s or 90s to get from the exit of '15 up to '18, 40% EBITDA margins?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Sure. Yes, I have a lot of confidence, Brandon. And I think if people want to know the price, you brand it? Brandon Burke Dobell - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Not really, no.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

If people want to know why, just look at the past 2 or 3 years. So it's funny. We talk about dropping $0.70 to $0.80 in the bottom line and for the past 2 or 3 years, people keep telling me it's been 100% to 110%. So I think if you look at the past 2 or 3 years and even though 2015 is turning out to be an investment year, I think if you look at the ramp the last 2 or 3 years, it will show you that you can get there by 2018, I think, very confidently. The investments that we're making are core investments in areas where we have so much experience. I mean, I've been here going on 18 years. Andy has been doing this 25 years or maybe even longer. He's getting mad because I'm not giving him credit, okay, 30 years. No, I'm sorry, 40 years, he was doing this when he was in grade school. So like going into Canada, obviously, is a decision that we need to do. But like -- we've been expanding in the markets time and time again. Look at the success all across the U.S. Look at the success in the U.K. So we have tons of models on this. I mean, we're -- I just -- I have an awful lot of confidence because a lot of the investments are going into places that we know, we know very well, and we model very well, and I have a lot of confidence in having the ability. I think the core model can drop $0.70, $0.80 to the bottom line. Obviously, we can tweak levers very easily to make it even higher at different points. So I think making the investments in '15 really sets us up really, really well for '16, '17 and '18. I feel good [ph].

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

And we have the ability to clearly communicate what's happening throughout the year in 2015. And I would -- you've been watching this company for a while, and there are multiple cases where you make an incremental investment in some researchers and then you come out of it. And I was always surprised at that trajectory. And for example, when you look at the United Kingdom this quarter, revenue growing 22% in the first 9 months of '14 and EBITDA at $1.9 million in the first 9 months compared to negative $3.9 million in the same period in 2013. So that's the kind of -- after you've made some of those investments, you get this sort of slingshot effect.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Hockey shot. Hockey is coming out of him.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

So the slingshot is exactly what we're going for. [indiscernible] impact. Just fire it up.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Phil Stiller with Citi.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

I guess I wanted to ask about the sales force. Obviously, nice to see the year-over-year comp turn positive here in the third quarter, and I know you're not giving guidance on this and there's a comp issue in the fourth quarter, but maybe, I guess, you could share kind of what your longer-term expectations are for eventual bookings growth once the sales force matures? And also perhaps you could share what the turnover has been given the amount of hiring you've done over the past 18 months.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Do you have specific turnover numbers?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

I can do anecdotal. Yes, I mean, I think it's been pretty good. I think it's actually -- it's sort of about where we were modeling, somewhat lower, I think, for the newer group you're sort of in the 30% to 40% range. I think the groups that have been there for over a couple years continues to be in the sub-20s. So I don't think -- from our models, and I know we talked about this in the past, I think the turnover is pretty consistent to what we were expecting. And as far as like -- we don't really guide on it, but I think we've talked about this. When you hire that many people, it's not that you drop another 150 people in 1 month and then they all mature at 1 month. They come in at 20 per class, 15, 20, 25 per class over months and months and months, and therefore, they mature over months and months and months really over like 1 year. And then if you lose 30% to 40% the first shot round and then you eventually get that next round 20%. Then you're sort of backfilling again. So it's really a 2- or 3-year process when you do this. And so my expectation, and then Andy can talk about his expectation, is that, obviously, you would have solid bookings growth really throughout the year. Like, I don't expect a big spike up or a big spike down. I think it's going to be pretty consistent throughout the year. And Andy, I don't know if you want to add to that.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Yes. And so my impression is that our turnover rates are better than the longer-term averages right now, especially where it matters the most, which is the experienced salespeople. The -- I anticipate getting a significant increase in productivity on the Apartments.com side. So I can look at -- and you can see that in the sales -- in the unit production numbers I just gave you. So when you look at what they were doing last year, what they're doing now, we're seeing a continuous trend of productivity improvement there. I am, again, very excited about being able to build a much stronger, deeper sales force by being able to link up some of the work the Apartments folks are doing with what the CoStar folks are doing and layering in a much stronger debt and equity component. So these are -- will be moving towards some higher-dollar sales numbers. And so I like those trends, and I think that gives you upward pressure on productivity. Also, as we consider ways to discontinue lower new low-priced information products with lots of buy it for 4 months, turn it off for a month, buy it for 4 months, turn it off. When you discontinue those sorts of products and move people into higher-value longer-term products, that would also feed our sales force with a huge volume of highly qualified leads. So that also drives productivity up. So there's some heavy lifting to do culturally and strategically with merging together these 2 large sales forces, but I believe that we'll have that done by mid next year, and they'll be really hitting some high productivity.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go to Brett Huff with Stephens.

Brett Huff - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Two questions -- or actually 3 quick questions from me. One is how should we think about your -- before you had given kind of a '16 -- 2016 goal, I think you were recalling it. Are we now just using the '18 -- 2018 goal? Is that the focus at this point?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I think that after the Apartments acquisition, we just sort of set the '18 goal out there, which everybody can calculate sort of the CAGR, and it's a fairly reasonable CAGR, compound annual growth rate, in the low to mid-teens between now and then. So I think we feel pretty confident about the 2018 goal.

Brett Huff - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then of the spending, at least the way I understood on the -- in the press release last night, was that the $20 million to $25 million would include researchers, Apartments.com spend and then some more accelerated debt and equity sales folks. It sounds like the -- based on what I'm hearing today on the call is that it sounds like it's mostly researchers. But if there's other stuff in there, can you give us a little sense -- Andy, I think you maybe you mentioned some advertising, and if it's Apartments.com, is it advertising? Or is it more website work or whatever? Because I think folks are asking us about the level of advertising spend needed for Apartments.

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

I'll start it and Andy can jump in. So the majority of it's research. We're going to add probably 300 researchers so people can calculate that. We're also in Canada, expanding across Canada. There's some governmental datasets and some other things that are very expensive that we need to get. So I would say the vast majority of that is research. And so whether it's research for debt and equity or research in Canada, it's sort of spread across all those would be the majority of it.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Yes, and there is some increase in sales, not it's more filling in infrastructure and a lot of the debt and equity roles will be filled by existing salespeople, I think, will perform fantastically in those roles. It's more filling in management infrastructure, some player coach roles and smaller team size and more markets. It might include more field sales offices. It would include some marketings -- incremental marketing spend, which we're continuing to evaluate right now what the right level is. Software is going up slightly, but we're really doing it with the team that we have with Apartments.com and with existing LoopNet, CoStar teams, are, I think, doing a great job at handling the workload right now and turning in a great performance. So it's a little bit. But -- that's what we're thinking about it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go to Michael Huang with Needham. Michael Huang - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division: So just a question on Apartments.com. I mean, great to see that you signed up more communities, but I was wondering if you can share with us how the size of these communities are comparing with those that were being acquired in the past. I mean, obviously, you've seen some gross in units [indiscernible] I was just wanting to find out whether or not they're apples-to-apples. And then with respect to the progress on selling CoStar information into back into the Apartments' customer base, I was wondering if you could give an update on that.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Sure. So the accounts we're signing up now are basically identical to the accounts we've been signing up historically, so it feels very similar. And they tend to be in communities that are 120 units or larger. In 2015, we're going to expand our efforts to work the whole spectrum from 20 units plus with some various product offerings. So it feels very similar in apples-to-apples. The -- there is progress occurring on selling information into the Apartments.com audience. It does seem like every single meeting I have with any prospective client for Apartments.com advertising turns the conversation to information pretty quickly. So there seems to be clear demand from my experience, and I've actually gone into some small apartment owner-developers in some small cities, and I keep running into the fact that someone else from the office has just bought CoStar Property and I was there to see them about Apartments.com. So it appears to be working, and we're lining up, frankly, we're doing this, we're lining up a significant launch effort in the first part of next year. So we're trying to sort through a concerted push with some significant improvements to CoStar property in 2015. So we're not -- I'm holding off pushing the sales force aggressively into that space until the first quarter, until we can give them a couple more tools in the toolkit and get them fired up about it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go to Peter Lowry with JMP Securities.

Peter Lowry - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst

One quick question. Have your outlook and expectations for the performance of the debt equity team increased since last quarter? Or are they just meeting high expectations?

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

I would say expectations are definitely increasing across the board: U.K., Canada, U.S. Definitely increasing. For all the salespeople out there listening every single time we hit a number, the expectation always goes up.

Peter Lowry - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division

Analyst

That's okay. Co-commissions.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Exactly. Yes, so it feels like it's just a really solid area for us.

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Bill Warmington with Wells Fargo.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

So I got a couple of questions for you. The first was just to doublecheck the organic growth calculation. It's looked like -- if you gave us pro forma of 13.9%, I just want to make sure I'm using the right level for Apartments.com, historically. It looks like about 22%, 22.1%, and that would put you right about 26%, 26.1% for...

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes, I think you're close. I don't know the exact number, but the exact calculation is 13.9%, so you can back into that, so it's like 22.5% or something like or 22.4% on a pro forma basis for them last year.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Right. And then that would imply for CoStar without Apartments growing at about 13%, 13.1%. Does that sound about right?

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes, I think, it's somewhere around there, plus or minus.

William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And Andy, for the EBITDA margin, 2014 -- 2015 versus 2014, are we thinking that, that margin is likely to be flat, up some? I'm just trying to get a sense directionally whether we can expect...

Brian J. Radecki

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think -- I mean, I'll try to simplify it. I mean, I didn't -- I'm not really coming out with guidance right now. I mean, the reality is we just started a -- I mean, I'll give you some commentary. The reality is we literally just started the detailed budget and operating plan process, which will be presented to our board in December. So it's kind of I don't really want to get out there. And obviously, when you look at all the projects, there's a lot of moving parts, there's a lot of things we're testing and analyzing or hiring researchers. So there's a lot going on here as most people know and expect. So I mean, I'm not really prepared to give a goal. My just [ph] view is that -- I mean, obviously with everything going on 2015 is sort of an investment year. I really think it sets up '16, '17 '18 really, really well. I tried to give people some of the pieces. I mean, obviously, you guys didn't have $20 million to $25 million investments into mainly research in the model. I don't think people were expecting us to expand to Canada. Obviously, we took this opportunity to make that decision. So what I would do is just go through, and I'd sort of look at sort of -- again, whatever your models, the consensus models, and I would just make sure that you're adding in these new things that we've talked about. And I don't know what that adds up to because I haven't actually -- like I said, I'm just going through the process now. Obviously, there's going to be more investments next year than people -- than we're talking about prior. But I think it sets us up very, very nicely. The stuff with for LoopNet, I mean, obviously, we're -- that could very -- is to what could happen there. But I view that as sort of a transition process sort of an in and out. What will impact us in '15 will come back to us by the time we get to '16, '17, '18. So really, the more permanent cost structure will be the research, and again, I feel great about that because we've been doing this for a long time. We've entered a lot of cities, and we got a lot of confidence, and we know we'll be making a lot of money come a few years down the road.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

And I do have to say that all these decisions, right now, when you look at how the company feels right now, I feel like we have never had a stronger capability in the teams, albeit systems, research, economics, sales, finance, all different components are incredibly strong right now, and the opportunities are significant, and the cohesiveness is good. So I feel like we have a very strong engine and some tailwinds, so we're running it flat out, frankly. And so we're just running every single element. But I really like the get 2-for-1 sort of efficiencies we're getting. So that when you're pursuing a revenue opportunity in the apartment space, you are, for free, driving a revenue opportunity in the information space in the debt and equity side. So we're basically, that's where we're pursuing it, and the decisions that, obviously, for competitive reasons, we can't discuss every single detail and because we're still formulating the budget, making some decisions, you can't formulate every single -- you can't discuss every single decision. But I'll tell you that the decisions are not difficult to make. They're clear. So we feel pretty good about it right now.

Operator

Operator

And I'll turn it back to our speakers for any closing comments.

Andrew C. Florance

Analyst

Well, I definitely appreciate everyone joining us on the call. I apologize for the friction between Brian and Jon. I'll take them to lunch, try to work it out. But another great quarter, and congrats to the team.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our teleconference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.