Earnings Labs

Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 21, 2015

$354.09

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Carlisle Company, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Mr. David Roberts, Chairman and CEO of Carlisle Company. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you very much. Good morning and welcome to Carlisle's third quarter 2015 conference call. On the phone with me is our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Koch; our Chief Financial Officer, Steven Ford; our Chief Accounting Officer, Kevin Zdimal; and our Treasurer, Julia Chandler. As we have done the last two quarters, I'll end up reviewing company's overall performance, Chris will review our segment performance, and Steve will review our balance sheet and cash flow statements. As I begin reviewing the third quarter performance, I ask that you turn to Slide 2, titled Forward Looking Statements and the Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures. This slide details the risk associated with investing in Carlisle. I strongly urge anyone who is considering an investment in our company to read these statements in detail, along with reviewing the financial reports we filed with the SEC before you decide to purchase shares of Carlisle's stock. Turning to Slide 3, you'll find the highlights of the third quarter. Sales grew 7.6% in the quarter, with: LHi contributing 2.9%; and Finishing Brands, which became Fluid Technologies, is contributing 7.5% to our growth. Organically, sales were lower 1%, and FX negatively impacted sales by nearly 2%. At first glance, our organic sales growth would suggest that we've seen a slowing in our key markets, but that isn't the entire case. Other than Brake & Friction, which slowed again in the third quarter, sales activity in our businesses was generally good, and this will become clear once we look at the data for each segment. Continuing with sales, volume…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Your first question comes from the line of Matt McConnell with RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning, guys. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Matt.

Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

So, you're certainly doing a good job on price in Construction Materials, down just 1%. Do you have a sense of what industry-wide pricing might have been? And what are your expectations for that as you get into some of the seasonally lighter quarters for construction? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Matt. I would think that the industry pricing is not much different than what we had as 1%. I think that we were very diligent in pricing to try to maintain pricing throughout the entire market. There may have been a little bit of degradation that went on in the other businesses, but I think we did what we wanted to do and not rollover and try to grow revenue, which we could have very easily done just by reducing price. So I don't think there was much price degradation in the industry itself.

Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Because I interpreted it as you didn't participate in some of the pricing concessions and that's why you under-grew the market, but you're saying that's not the case. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No. What happened is that there were jobs that we could have easily have taken had we reduced our price. We elected not to do that. I think what that allowed the folks who were bidding on it not to take additional or to have additional price pressure. So I think they held some of their price at a reduced level from what ours was. But I think that they held some price as well. So I think, yes, it had an impact on revenue. I would have bet we would have grown probably 4% or 5% what the market grew, so we ended up giving up some market share. But I don't think everybody had a dramatic price reduction.

Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay, okay, great. Thanks. And so you suggested that you could be seeing a structurally higher margin in Construction Materials. I think over the past 10 or 15 years, it's been between 13% and 15% for a while. Any idea of what you believe that could be going forward? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I don't think it's going to be 20%. I mean, we had one heck of a quarter, but we're driving to get it above 15%. And at this point, will it end up at 16%, 17%, 18%? I'm not sure. It's only been one quarter. We'll see how the fourth quarter goes. We'll continue to be very disciplined in the fourth quarter as well, but the intent is, is to try to drive the industry margins higher.

Matthew McConnell - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets

Hey, guys. How's it going? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Joel. Good.

Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets

That's good. I wonder if you could just give sort of a little more backdrop on the flow of business at CCM into the next couple of years, like what are the leading indicators besides non-residential construction spending? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think the one that Chris mentioned is energy. Energy has continued to drive our insulation business and, frankly, insulation is where we saw most of the price pressure. Membrane, we saw some price pressure in TPO, but I think insulation was probably the one that had the most price pressure in it. So we think that insulation will continue to grow. Certainly, the transition to TPO – and some of that coming from EPDM – will continue to grow, but it's all driven by reroofing projects and new construction.

Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets

Okay. And can you give us a little sense of the size of the opportunity in the medical business for you and who the competitors are there? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It's the usual competitors that we have in aerospace as well, the Tyco-ese, folks like that. We think the business certainly can be equal to what our aerospace business is, but it's going to take us a while to get there like it did with aerospace, but we think there's equal amount of revenue out there that we can capitalize on through new product development and acquisition.

Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets

All right. Thank you very much. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ivan Marcuse with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one that I have real quick is, you just mentioned it and if I missed it, I apologize, but do you see in terms of volumes or industry growth any differences between insulation, EPDM, TPO? Is one stronger than the other or weaker than the other because I know insulation has been, at least in terms of volume, has been a pretty strong performer over the past, I don't know, several quarters? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Insulation continues to be a very strong grower. It's probably growing at a rate slightly higher than TPO. Insulation then is followed by TPO, which is followed by EPDM. And we're seeing PVC also have very good growth rates as well.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Great. Thanks. And then moving over to wire or CIT. LHi put up an actually a pretty decent margin of 13%, a little bit better than I was expecting. I assume sort of the restructuring there is maybe going better than expected. Do you expect that to get sort of in line with the 20% or where do you see the, I guess, ceiling on where LHi could go? And then ultimately, how does that translate for total CIT margins on an annual basis and in the quarter? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. LHi will certainly continue to have margin increases as we go through the next 12 to 18 months. Now, keep in mind, it's burdened by the goodwill or the intangible amortization that we have in the business. So we'll continue to have that pressure, but there is no reason if you add in the amortization cost, that it wouldn't be equal to or slightly above what the Aerospace business is.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research.

Neil A. Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research

Hi. Good morning, guys. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Neil.

Neil A. Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research

Just starting with CCM and just taking a step back, I mean, I know you guys called out maybe some temporary share loss in the quarter. And then obviously, you had a very difficult comparison to last year, but just based on your conversations with contractors and distributors, is it your sense that underlying demand within your commercial roofing markets is starting to slow or, I mean, do things seem pretty strong out there? And, I guess, I'm just trying to get at can we expect volumes to reaccelerate at some point, whether it's 2016 or in Q4? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Oh, I think volumes will continue to grow, but keep in mind we've come off of a very strong 12-month or 18-month period. So, I think that we'll still see growth in Construction Materials. I'm not sure it's going to be at the 10% we were seeing I think it was late last year or so. But I think it's certainly going to grow in the mid-single digits over the – certainly the next couple of quarters. We haven't seen anything yet and all of our contractors and distributors remain very bullish on the market.

Neil A. Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research

All right. That's helpful. And then, with the thinking that Brake & Friction segment has reached bottom, should we expect EBIT margins to remain in the low single digit range, excluding those severance charges you had in the quarter, until volumes recover at some point? Or are there still levers to pull at least to get margins back up to mid-single digits while waiting for the volumes to come back? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Neil, I don't think you're going to see margins back at certainly the high single digits at this level of our sales volume. I think what we'll end up seeing is that margins are going to be in the mid-singles to maybe even a little bit lower than that. We just need volume in that business. And we said, I think, on last quarter's call, that to be able to take additional cost out means taking a factory out. And as we've looked at doing that, the cost to take a factory out is very, very expensive. And I don't think we'd get the return on it with any anticipated return in volume and we think it will eventually come back. Now, we'll continue to monitor it. And if gets to a point where we're not seeing any life at all in the market, we may have to go ahead and do that. But as of today, we'll reduce our variable costs and hold on to our fixed costs certainly over the next couple of quarters.

Neil A. Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research

Great. That's helpful. And just one follow-up on Brake & Friction, I mean, you guys note that you think you've seen the bottom of the cycle. I mean, what gives you guys confidence that it doesn't take another step down from here? I mean, have you seen a stabilization in the order book or is it just we're getting to the point of irreducible minimums? David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We thought we were at the bottom a couple of quarters ago and we took this latest downturn. I think it's just anticipation of what's going to happen in the marketplace. It really can't go much lower than where it is. If you think about until the commodities recover, you aren't going to see a heck of a lot of new equipment be required. I think ag will turn faster than anything else. We would anticipate to see some life out of ag, perhaps mid-year, next year. But, I think construction and mining are still going to be in the dumps, primarily driven by international sales of equipment.

Neil A. Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Neil Frohnapple of Longbow Research

All right. Thanks a lot, guys, appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Giannakouros with Oppenheimer. Jim Giannakouros - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Good morning, guys. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Jim. Jim Giannakouros - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Just a question on CFT, the margin progression and the outlook there is well understood. If you can give us a look into how you're thinking about near-term and I guess sustainable top-line growth there, understanding that your end markets are pretty diversified also by geography and that it can be lumpy, I guess to frame it, what markets excite you currently there? And where are the concerns? And where are you on new product intros and things that you can do internally that could drive growth there? D. Christian Koch - President & Chief Operating Officer: Hey Jim, Chris. Couple of things there, there is a lot of excitement around a few opportunities. Let's just take the new products you mentioned first. We launched a couple of new products already. And I think that was something we pointed out during the acquisition that this team, this management team, did not stop working through the acquisition. And it's a real tribute to what they've been putting out. We had a new line of pumps called smart pumps that we've put into the automotive industry with great success. We have a new electrostatic gun that we're putting in the aerospace industry and other applications. It's being very well received. We've got some plural component equipment that was just released called the Gems Unit that has some very advanced features in the programming side. So, the new products are continuing to rollout. We will see the same type of investment. The R&D group, the sales group knows where the technology…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs with Baird. Tim R. Wojs - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hey, guys, good morning. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Tim. Tim R. Wojs - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Back to CFT, I was just curious of the 250 basis points of pro forma year-over-year improvement, I mean, how much of that was just mix and pricing versus some of the operational things you can do with Carlisle Operating System over the next couple of years? D. Christian Koch - President & Chief Operating Officer: Right now, it was mostly volume and mix, I would say, and more volume. Carlisle Operating System is getting underway. We are seeing good growth in the return in the Carlisle Operating System, but they're just getting started. And that process for us, it's a blitz approach, and it generally takes a couple of months to get going. We've seen it used at Brake & Friction when we bought that business. We've seen it used at LHi and in other areas with CIT very successfully. So we would see that increasing over the next few years our return. The people will get fully trained. They'll get used to the system. The projects tend to build on themselves. And as we do more projects, we tend to be better and better at identifying and executing on those projects. So I'd see nice gains going forward and I don't really think with COS there's ever an end to that opportunity. I think it just builds on itself. And so hopefully, we see that what we've seen in the past in other divisions continue in CFT for the next few years. Tim R. Wojs - Robert W. Baird…

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. David A. Roberts - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Angie, thank you. All right, as we get ready to close the call, we'd asked everyone to turn to Slide 15. As I said at the end of our second quarter conference call, we expect growth in each of our segments, except CBF, and that continues to be the case in the fourth quarter. The news released recently by one of our largest CBF equipment manufacturing customers is indicative of the outlook we're anticipating for the braking business. Our customers continue to tell us that the sales of off-road heavy equipment will continue to be challenged through the remainder of 2015 and into 2016. While we've reduced our SG&A spending at CBF this year by nearly $10 million on an annualized basis, we'll be looking for additional cost savings because we can't reduce our way to prosperity. We need volume. Without volume increases, the next 12 months will be a tough row to hoe for the CBF guys. Fortunately, CBF only represents 8% of our total company sales. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, I would anticipate CBF's results to be very similar to our performance in the third quarter. The outlook for CCM is good for the fourth quarter. I expect to see modest sales growth and continued strong profit growth as we remain price disciplined. We see that this is a fight to improve industry margins for years to come and we will be disciplined with our pricing actions in the fourth quarter, as we were in the third quarter. CIT is expected to see mid-single digit sales growth. For the fourth quarter, earnings growth could slow a bit, as we had a favorable mix in the third quarter and as…