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Constellium SE (CSTM)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 10, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day. And welcome to the Constellium 2016 Third Quarter Results Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only-mode. [Operator Instructions]. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask a question. [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paul Blalock, Investor Relations. Mr. Blalock the floor is yours, sir.

Paul Blalock

Analyst

Thank you, Mike and good day, everyone. And thank you for your interest in Constellium. I would like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2016 call. On our call today is our Chief Executive Officer Jean-Marc Germain, our Interim Chief Financial Officer, Corinne Fornara and our newly appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer designate, Peter Matt. After the presentation, we'll have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website and as mentioned today's call is being recorded. Before we begin I'd like encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the Company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events and expectations and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation which supplement our IFRS disclosures. I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Thank you, Paul and good morning, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Constellium. I will start out with a quick recap of the financial results in the quarter and also provide some high-level perspectives on my first 100 days or four months actually tomorrow at Constellium I will ask then Corinne to walk you through the financial details on each of our three segments. And finally, I’ll wrap it with some comments on what we learned from the investor feedback study, our priority is going forward and some high-level color on our near and longer-term performance. Turning now to page five, the highlights of the third quarter include shipments at 377,000 metric tons are in line with last year. Our revenue at EUR1.2 billion is down 5% compared with last year that’s mainly due to a product mix shift. Our net income at EUR50 million for the period compares with net loss of EUR45 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR97 million increases 23% over last year, which reflects the stronger personnel improvements in our P&ARP segments of 49% actually at our Muscle Shoals facility which showed a very significant improvement and contributed EUR26 million to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. We also had solid execution in our automotive structures and industry segments at 13% and stable result in our aerospace and transportation segment. Lastly, as we have noted, we have announced as we are calling the $150 million PIK Toggle Notes to reduce our gross debt. Turning to slide six, I want to briefly give you an update, this is my first few months at Constellium. Let me start by saying that I am very pleased to be here. I believe we have a great opportunity to unlock shareholder value in Constellium. First, I had spent a lot…

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Thank you, Jean-Marc. On slide eight, Constellium achieved EUR97 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing 23% growth, for an increase of EUR18 million over last year. This was driven by P&ARP segment growth of EUR20 million largely from Muscle Shoals, as well as the EUR3 million improvement in AS&I while [indiscernible]. The costs from holding and corporate increased by EUR5 million as compared with last year, mainly due to the EUR3 million of one-time charges related to [indiscernible] executive management changes. We continue to expect between EUR2 million to EUR3 million of charges per month in [indiscernible]. Turning to slide nine, now the P&ARP segment had relatively flat shipments of 265,000 tons compared to last year, which included relatively stable constant demand on the Q3 to Q3 comparison. Automotive rolled product shipments were up 33%. Demand driver for all significant improvements as part came from our Muscle Shoals facilities which contributed EUR26 million in adjusted EBITDA to IFRS results. The metal management issues are resolved and we are successfully implementing several cost reduction initiatives at Muscle Shoals. In addition, our project in-source UBC procurement in North America for recycling is progressing as such. Also 11.13 [indiscernible] which was high called over 14 billion camps last year, we’ll benefit shortly from the installation of [indiscernible] to further expand capacity. As you’ve seen, we already launched the two-producing auto body sheet finishing line one at Neuf-Brisach and the other in OTV with UCG in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Both finishing lines are in the qualification phase and on schedule. On the right side of the slide you can see the top adjusted EBITDA 49% from EUR40 million in the third quarter last year to EUR60 million in the third quarter of this year and adjusted EBITDA per ton improved by 48% from EUR153 last…

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Thank you, Corinne. So, as I mentioned to you on our last call, we undertook a detailed shareholder feedback study that included a significant number of interviews with buy and sell side analysts and current, former and prospective investors. And I'd like to cover with you the key takeaways from this study. We learn that many of you believe that we have attractive end markets, a balanced portfolio and excellent long-term potential. However, there was consistent feedback that the company needs to clarify its strategy, in a disciplined and its deployment of capital reduce its leverage and communicate more clearly with investors. These all will be a focus of going forward of Peter and myself and the management team. And we also commit to communicate with you on a regular basis and to keep you priced of development in our business. Turning to slide 16, I want to take the opportunity to give you some color of what I see as our path forward. First of all, let me share some of my early conclusions on the company. Constellium is a great mix of businesses with some really unique capabilities, a number of very exciting opportunities in our core end markets and a strong team in place to execute on them. The new management will be highly focused on operational excellence, disciplined capital deployment and financial flexibility. As it relates to capital we will be vigorous in allocating our capital where we have attractive return opportunities. We've instituted a much stricter return framework and where we are not confident that there is an attractive return we will not make the investments. I think our approach to the second cap [ph] line is very good example of this. We have said that we will not stop spending on the slide until…

Peter Matt

Analyst

Thanks, Jean-Marc and good morning, everyone. This is day nine for me, so I'm still drinking through the proverbial fire hose. I'm very excited to be at Constellium. For those of you who know me you know that I have spent a lot of time around businesses like Constellium. While my time here has been short, I can see that there is a tremendous amount of opportunity and I am very supportive of the disciplined approach Jean-Marc is taking to capture it. I believe there is upside for the company in operating consistently continuously improving deploying our capital efficiently and communicating clearly. I look forward to working with the Constellium team and all of you to create value. With that, operator we’ll now open the lines for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question we have comes from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Good morning.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Hey, Curt.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Jean-Marc, could you drill down a little more specifically into the aerospace market outlook and it seems like your order book is still relatively full in Europe, so does that suggest you are not seeing much evidence of destocking in the plate market and then I didn't quite catch it, did you say that you think that the A&T EBITDA will grow year-on-year even though you are going to have lover volume and a negative mix impact?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Right. So, we are seeing a little bit a different picture than what some of our competition is seeing and I think our greater exposure to Europe is actually a big factor in it. Yes, there is a bit of destocking that’s going on, we’ve actually suffered from it in the third quarter in aerospace specifically and so we do see that but to a lesser extent than others. I did say that we expect our A&T segments in its totality to be higher EBITDA in 2017 and in 2016 and we do expect Q4 to be a better quarter than Q3.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then with respect to auto body sheet growth both in Europe and Bowling Green, can you give us a sense of how the volumes cadence will look next year and any guidance on how the margin profile during that ramp up, those ramp ups?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

So, we are maintaining our initial ramp up curve with a little bit of a faster ramp up in the U.S. and Europe. So, we are talking off 40,000 to 50,000 tons in the U.S. and the 34,000 tons in Europe next year and ramping up to ultimate capacity of a 100 to 1000 tons within two, three years from that. So, that is still very much the case. The ramp up is - we are at the moment a lot of testing going on with customers and we will have few tons that are being sold commercially in the fourth quarter, but nothing re-material. The other aspect to your question was about margins, I mean clearly when you start you're at a negative margin in the first few months, that’s where we are when we exit 2017 will be in more stable run rate margins as we have - as we see in the rest of our business, but there will be a gradual ramp up in margin virtually zero to slightly negative to full margin at the end of next year.

Curt Woodworth

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next, we have Matthew Fields, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

Hi, Jean-Marc and welcome Peter. Thanks, first of all it's kind of applaud your effort on the investor perception outreach just from what I hear from investors it was sort of needed. A little bit more color on why I think it will be great you mentioned EUR26 million of EBITDA this year up to last year, can you give us a little color on the mix in volume at Muscle Shoals?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yes, I think both - most of the improvements that we see relates to cost management, you know performance at the plant level, focus on recovery, focus on throughput, making sure we reduced to fixed cost and the team there have done a tremendous job at getting their act together and redeem for 18 and their very tight conditions. So, kudos to them and three of that operating performance much more than better volumes or better mix or whatever. So, very sustainable improvements in my view.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

And then Novellus has talked about walking away from certain can contracts sort of the last couple of quarters to make room for auto capacity. Can you possibly talk a little bit about that market are you able to pick up additional customers leverage that are prices for yourself when you go to renew contracts?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

We’ll not be a specific in my answer as what your question suggests, but again it is a market that we see becoming a little bit tighter but we don’t want to make sure that we don’t get carried away I mean expansion our business comes potentially at a very high capital price and as I mentioned capital discipline is paramount. So, I want to make sure that as we grow some parts of our business, we do it in a capital disciplined fashion.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

Great. And then what was the one you mentioned the contract that might inhibitor your ability to be free cash flow positive. Is there something going on with one of your major can contracts that sort of would cause results to deteriorate from here?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Obviously, we've got confidentiality provisions in our contracts, and I want to make sure that I stick to them. What I can say that we've got one of our contracts has given the customer the opportunity to extend payment terms. It's a one-off event that could happen or not in 2019. And again, because I want to be more transparent and not surprise anybody I am putting it out there and saying we've got this risk ahead of us, it's a one-off event. We'll be working to mitigate it all, all ends are on deck to make sure that we meet our objective of being free cash flow positive in 2019 this can happen and this further reinforces our efforts to make sure we meet the targets in 2019. But again, it's a one-off and in terms of meeting that profitability of this contract is going down or whatsoever. It's just the facility that as was historically granted to them and they may take advantage of it or not.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

But it's just for one year.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yes, it's a one year impact, we bite the bullet in '19 and that's it. And I know you've said at the end of the contracts, at the end of the contract, it reverses to well it little reverse to normal. Because those extending payment terms make a lot of sense to me.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

All right, great. Thank you very much for all the color.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Welcome. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we have Jorge Beristain of Deutsche Bank.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Hi, good morning Jean-Marc. I guess just one question I had in terms of the recent win that you guys flagged on the pusher 3008. It seems like at the fairly low volume vehicle if do you have any other updates on any other similar models that you might be winning or would small pusher production that sort of be indicative that your kind of winning lots of little small ones but just trying to get some color as to why you're flagging that one?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

So, in some cases regarding with as I tell you on successes. We know there as we can because it's a two-way street to that customer. So, sometimes we can, sometimes we can't. it's true that our approach is to diversify our as much as possible a mix of customers and be less dependent than one platform or one car or one model or one OEM than the other. So, that's the context of the that we should be looked at from. And this specific model gives us opportunities in both segments and actually it's a nice illustration actually we have the synergies we have between our ore body sheet segment and our AS&I segment where we become really recognize from the customer standpoint solution providers in both areas of their need. So, it's bringing success and we're very happy we won that piece of business. So, a little bit of commercial here for us we felt very good about it.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Okay, well. That make sense. And just again sorry to keep going back aerospace but just concretely can you just tell us how the heavy plate market is looking for 2017, I mean where that the industry build rates going to continue. But could you just give us some color as to how that could be affecting plate demand?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Well, rather than comments on the market I will give you a little bit of outlook for what we think it means for us. So overall when we said and done we expect our aerospace volumes to be slightly down next year, as Corinne mentioned. We'll have a better mix of product. And then some of that will be I mean most of that will be offset by progress in our other non-aerospace increasing material and all in all we expect kind of stable volumes for A&T and better profitability.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

And then just getting pass 2017 do we start to see a little bit of a rebound into 2018 of the heavy plate for you guys?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

I'm not making assumptions on the basis of hopeful developments in the markets. So, the guidance I'm giving kind of over the next three years doesn't assume an improvement or deterioration in the market. So, we're looking at next year is going to be little bit softer than this year. And from there we continue on that same level of activity.

Jorge Beristain

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

And if it's better we'll take advantage of it, but at least we're not counting on the markets to help us.

Operator

Operator

And next, we'll have David Gagliano of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just had a couple of clarifying questions and a follow up. first of all, you said I just want to make sure you said mid or I'm sorry you said upper single digit adjusted EBITDA growth on average over the next three years is that correct?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yes, annually.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Annually okay. And does that include all the expansions and body and weight and et cetera that already been announced.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yes.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. And then I was just wondering if you could sorry, go ahead.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yeah what has been announced is what we discussed today, right. There is - that line and the first line in Bowling Green.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. And then...

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

And sorry, just and just for clarification the second line in Bowling Green would have an impact anyway on the three-year outlook in EBITDA. It takes two years to build it and then first year you're just ramping it up, so even if you are to decide tomorrow which I said we're not deciding tomorrow could have an impact from those three years of EBITDA.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Great, I appreciate that. and then last clarification. I just wanted - is it possible to break that down by each of the main segments in terms of rough ranges of that what you're expecting for adjusted EBITDA within each of the main segments?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yeah. it's definitely possible and that's how we build our plans, bottom up and changing our expectations, but I'm sorry I will not be sharing that with you.

David Gagliano

Analyst

Okay. Well, I appreciate, Peter Matt welcome abroad. Glad to hear your...

Peter Matt

Analyst

Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll have David Levenson of PKAM [ph].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I have two questions, the first one is you mentioned deleveraging an increased flexibility has an objective for purpose. I'd like to hear some clarification on this, are you seeking of the capital increase at one point or you just thinking about growth and growing into your capital structure. My second question is on operational improvements just on a lot already. There was tangible results which is big news. I'd like to know whether there is more that we should be expecting or just pretty much it and from now on an improvement in EBITDA will come from growth in volumes. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

So, I'll answer the first part of the question and the second part of the question and then turn the first part to Peter. But in terms of operational improvements, our growth in EBITDA, so thank you for acknowledging our improvements and they were solely hard fought. There is more to come. So, we will continue to improve on what we have, it is very important. The company strategy cannot only rest for putting more money and to growing the company and then getting EBITDA from that, but that will also be another aspect of our growth in EBITDA. So, expect some further operational improvement and obviously expect contributions from the CapEx we deploy to our growth projects. And Peter I'll let you comment on that the first question.

Peter Matt

Analyst

Yes, currently we're not contemplating a capital increase. We don't have a current need we have significant liquidity and we've got a high level of confidence in our plan. Of course, we'll evaluate all opportunities of the time that we have the need. But right we don't see if that we have a need.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we have David Deterding of Wells Fargo.

David Deterding

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a quick one, I would applaud you for the debt paydown in the quarter with the cash and taking care some of the debt at the Muscle Shoals entity. Can you just give us a quick snapshot on how you're kind of thinking about the rest of the debt that fits down there that entity if we're going to ultimately collapse the balance into one or how do you think about that?

Peter Matt

Analyst

So, it's Peter again, I'll take that. We haven't made any decisions yet. We obviously watch the markets closely. We've got some time to consider and we know we've got kind a very good market access so we’re going to approach this financing opportunistically but we’re definitely watching it so…

David Deterding

Analyst

Great. Could you just remind us how much secured capacity you have at the Constellium corporate level?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Roughly EUR400 million.

David Deterding

Analyst

EUR400 million, thank you. And then my last question is just on the super early days here in the U.S. with the new Presidential election, but some things reported on the Wall Street Journal yesterday just talking about potential new presidency looking at the EPA standards with a clean view any kind of early thoughts on what that might mean and could that change in the aluminum and the auto or is that just more talks than action? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Thank you very much for a very easy question. I think the policies of the President Elect are not fully clear yet and one wouldn’t expect them to be clear, but I don’t think there was much there is much that we can’t comment upon, so we’ll be watching for what this means. I think that the first of all on automotive, aluminum and automotive it’s a wrong term trend, it’s continuing it’s well launched and I don’t think that it’s not a ship that turns on a dime and getting better mileage for vehicle who societal need as well as cap payment date is extended. And then you know there’s plenty of other items around and certain prediction from China that could be a bothering for us. There is when we talk about EPA regulations and there is a lot of investments we need to make in our factories to be compliant till we get through the access can be a little bit less CapEx for us so it’s very much, very early to say what this all entails. And we’ll have to watch for what comes out of the first 100 days and first year and too early for us to tell.

David Deterding

Analyst

All right. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Next we have Sean [ph] of Deutsche Bank.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, there and thank you for taking my questions. So, one quick clarification on CapEx year-to-date in 2016 you spend about $234 million I believe you’ve got it to about $350 million of CapEx for 2016 is that still in order, is that still the expectation here please?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Yes, it is expectation after as we said that we’ve officially launched the new line in [indiscernible] we have lot of payment planned in Q4 so go ahead to be October [indiscernible] but we still plan to be at 360 at the end of the year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And then when you talk in terms of the production build-out in Neuf-Brisach and Bowling Green when should we expect to see volumes actually begin to pick up across the organization?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

That’s going to be next year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, so next year we should see them start to pick up. And then lastly, last question just on working capital what should be expect for in terms of working capital in the fourth quarter and going forward in ‘17? I know you had the UBC issue that you’re working on so how should we be modeling that?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

So, on the UBC part, the insourcing on UBC we’ll quite need a working capital of roughly $40 million split between the end of this year and beginning of next year and working capital we have remained stable, post [indiscernible] we remain stable.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I'm really sorry I didn’t understand that did you say 340 in terms of working capital?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

40, 40 for UBC sourcing we plan to have a working capital need for UBC insourcing of $40 million.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And that’s for 4Q ‘16 or ‘17?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

End of, you will see this after on contrary we see that’s at the end of this year for [indiscernible] the beginning of next year. The time we have that things.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. But otherwise, do you foresee working capital in ‘17 being relatively flat or source it is?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

No, no relatively flat.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Next we have Christian Georges of Societe Generale.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Yes, thank you very much. Couple of questions on ore metals. Is there a current level of profitability that you reached $26 million I think you mentioned in dollars? I mean is this something you would characterize as normalized ore metals after the troubles we had in the last year. Effectively are we considering the metal's profitability is now in 9 with the rest of the P&ARP division?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Yeah, so it's EUR256 million in Q3. I'll remind you that Q3 has favorable seasonality impact because it's high peak season for can sheet consumption. People drink more beers and sodas in the summer. Now, we believe that going forward I mean it's pretty much in line with what we said we will do maybe a little bit better in terms of the full year '16 reasons. And going forward, we expect as I said to have a little bit more operational improvements going into 2017. So. yeah it looks like it's a normalizing but there is still some room to go.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Okay. And as we go into [indiscernible] and the US [indiscernible] starting both on the 1000 tons. And when should we consider 2000 tons committed free delivered in shipments and when should we expect those lines to at least to reach breakeven roughly?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Okay. So, we've comment on when they get to full capacity it's 19 and there was a ramp up. and I think the ramp up will be affected by when models get large and all that. so, it's not a technical ramp up really initially it's more commercially. And in terms of when the breakeven I think I mentioned earlier that we get to a situation where our EBITDA normalized at the end of '17 out there. So, they should be fully profitable to the average level of EBITDA expectations in 2018.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Okay. And Bowling Green do we account for it at internal division or whether is it going to be a considered as an associate, have you decided yet.

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

We consolidate them for the accretion. So, you won't see them in the EBITDA as reported. But we'll provide you with the data.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Okay. So, you now forecasted would be those year operating level.

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Yes.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Of 15%. And my last question is on CapEx. So EUR350 million this year, EUR275 million next year. and in 2018 so you don't decide so second BAW line what would you expect CapEx roughly to be from on a normalized basis. But I would assume by 2018 you have really more the investment where should we

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

So, as I said, we had some prior guidance and CapEx. And we've kind of what I'm saying here is compared to what we said in the past, we are a little bit higher on CapEx than what we said in the past. Specifically, for '18, '19 on a go forward basis, we're in the process with Clark [ph] to review all our capital spending over the next five year and really decide upon what we do, when we do it. So, it is a bit premature for me to answer your question. But when we meet again and there will be specific investor they in March 2017 as I said I expect as to be able to answer your question with more visibility and fidelity to our process.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Okay, very clear. Thank you very much.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next we have David Olkovetsky of CQS. Please go ahead.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Hi, Jean-Marc. How much money are you talking about as possible maximum impact from the changes to payment terms that you've referenced earlier that should be coming in 2019?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

I will not give you the number, but I will say that if I'm now talking now in 2017 about something that may happen in 2019. It is a sizable enough amount that again it can swing us from free cash flow to free cash flow negative. And I will leave it there if you allow me.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay, of course. And then you mentioned it's may or may not the free cash flow positive in '19. So, presumably you have some sort of CapEx number in mind for '19, can you just provide us what your - obviously, your preliminary thoughts are as of today?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

I told Christian and so I will do that March of '17.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. And although just back on the cash outflow are you expecting a 100% reversal of that in 2020 if it were to happen that?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

It should reverse but not in 2020. It may reverse, if it happens it may reverse in 2020 it would definitely by 2021.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

That’ll be a positive.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. Positive traffic. You see at those professions and then apology I missed what you said on the potential second line in Bowling Green how you’re thinking about what I thought you said was as of right now it’s not moving forward can you just give us an update on where you are in terms of how full that line is for customers that you’re confident are looking to use the aluminum permit?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

We haven’t earned interest in the second line nobody is stepping forward with enough commitment that I think I can make that go to launch it.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. Do you think they’re waiting to see how the first line performs?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

That’s one element and it makes a lot of sense to me that they would, that’s one element absolutely.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. And then can you just clarify what your EBITDA guidance is included if it’s including Bowling Green not as where we confused rapid consolidation versus I just didn’t understand roughly your statement?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

So, Bowling Green is the JV we have is consolidated on the equity method so it doesn’t have any impact on EBITDA.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay, got it. So…

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

The EBITDA from the JV is in fact into my EBITDA guidance.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And then earlier in the call you talked about taking the PIK Toggle Notes out as a first step I believe were your words, so maybe if you can just give us a sense how you’re feeling about the capital structure as it is stands today and then when do you think further steps are taken I mean the timing wise is your focus on producing interest or is your focus on producing indebtedness?

Peter Matt

Analyst

It’s Peter speaking. So, our focus is on reducing both indebtedness and the interest expense and we’re looking at all different approaches to do that from internal resources so Jean-Marc had indicated we’re taking very close look at our capital spending budgets, we’re taking very close look at what we can do to make our operations run better from a cost standpoint and therefore hopefully generate greater cash flow and we’re also looking at things like working capital and so forth so we’re evaluating all of these tools.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay, I understood. And then if I could just ask one more question on why is prior guidance had been $90 million to $100 million I believe if I'm remembering correctly on a sort of go-forward basis starting I think it was March of this year is that still the number are those are the numbers that we should be thinking about or have these cost improvements in another thing that you mentioned, are they sort of permanent or they add sort of an amount to that EBITDA outlook?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Especially the way to look at it for this year and as I mentioned there is a little bit more to do.

David Olkovetsky

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next we have Ryan [ph] of Cowen.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to get a quick any thoughts on the Elaris [ph] transaction as well as secondly what your view point is on AS&I outlook for next year so we continue to think the kind of growth that we’ve been experiencing this year? Thanks.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

Sure. Well, the Elaris [ph] transaction is under review at the moment I think I like the multiple, so that’s I think we’ll see on this acquisition. And but it just indicates the fact that worry then attractive business Elaris [ph] is automotive and aerospace, we’re bigger in automotive, we’re bigger in aerospace and we’ve got packaging as well that they don’t have. So, I think it’s great for them and good luck with the review will be my comments and the transactions. Now AS&I, I mentioned that as we are increasing our guidance for CapEx the main reason for that is more opportunities or growth in AS&I so I expect AS&I to continue on a nice gross trajectory. Now that being said when we spend money in this business you get a nomination for a program, you build your factory or your lines and when you deliver two-year latter. So, the growth may not be linear, but it’s a very nice trajectory that we have in going forward basis, it’s a most specifically I expect them to be doing that’s our next year then this year.

Operator

Operator

Next we have Ralph [ph] of Citigroup.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Congratulation on the quarter and quick housekeeping question on factoring, what’s the gross continual factoring do you have by the end of 3Q, was this play between the Constellium box and the voice box and now say what’s display between committed and non-committed lines?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

So, level of factoring at the end of September was more than EUR500 million same level as of the end of June and more or less EUR80 million more than at the of December. 200, at the end of September 200 are related to EUR200 million related twice.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And how was the roughly 500 relates to committed that’s uncommitted line?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Uncommitted.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Are they all uncommitted?

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Understood, thank you.

Corinne Fornara

Analyst

Yes, all uncommitted, sorry.

Operator

Operator

Matthew Fields, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

Yes, just a couple of follow-up. In aerospace, I know we’ve talked about this a lot, but sort of it seems like kind a stable volume lower aerospace which means probably lower margins overall that you are expecting EBITDA growth is it really sort of profitably measures that’s driving that is it the pusher furnace in Ravenswood or debottleneck, can you talk about sort of?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

There was a bit everything but if you look at our Q3 numbers, we are less aerospace more --so less a multi and our EBITDA per ton is the same, right. So, we shouldn't have mentally it's dangerous to think that aerospace in super high margins and the rest of the business is low margin actually, it’s not that when we're managing properly, we get comparable levels of margin.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

Okay. And then and extrusions just want to drill down a little bit on growth rates there, how are you driving EBITDA per ton growth which has been pretty substantial over the last couple of years is it mix, is it newer products, better contracts like what’s the driving force between behind that sort of EBITDA per ton growth?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

All of these and also some very good job and operational excellence in this business. When the team there is really focused and back to the basics of the business looking at productivity, tons per hour, recovery getting smart and everything they do and it’s a nice firing in all cylinders.

Matthew Fields

Analyst

And then what’s the capacity of the new the fact facilities in Georgia and Mexico?

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

I don’t think I want to comment too much on this and...

Matthew Fields

Analyst

Hello?

Operator

Operator

I’m sorry to the management team we’ve currently, we see connected, but we lost audio momentarily. [Operator Instructions] Thank you for your patience everyone. We do have management location back on the line. Please proceed, sir.

Jean-Marc Germain

Analyst

All right. Thank you, Mike. And sorry for the technical difficulty. And we're actually talking through a cellphone now. So, reception will be not as good - actually it’s a last question we are going to answer for today. So, the question was about the size, the capacity of the plants in Georgia for instance. So, the way to think of it is in this business you have small incremental capital investments that generate revenues for a specific model vehicle. So, the way to think of it is, if we're investing EUR20 million and we've got some returns expectations and this is a program that lasts for about seven years of production. This is how you need to think of what is the revenue potential, what is the EBITDA potential, how does that contribute to our returns. And typically, we are looking for 20% internal rate of return on the deployment of that kind of capital. So, once I've said that you can figure out when I put EUR10 million of capital in this business, this is kind of revenue and EBITDA profile I get whether the next seven to nine years. All right that will be my answer to your question. With that, I think it's time for us to wrap up. In closing, just want to say that we are pleased with the third quarter results, so I think it give us a good foundation on which to build post-2017. I want to remind you of the high-level guidance, so we are giving you for the future. So, high single digit growth annually and adjusted EBITDA over the next three years. Capital expenditures is a little bit higher than what we communicated in our prior guidance around EUR275 million for next year and that is mainly on account of those exciting growth opportunities we have in our AS&I. We have this objective, very firm objective to be free cash flow positive in '19. I mentioned one-off impact that couple trip us one way or the other. But all hands are on deck. We will recognize our leverage is high, our debt is high. We need to work on it and that's free cash flow management is super important in this regard. And finally, we look forward to updating you more fully on our strategy after the results of the full year we'll have been posted in March of 2017 we'll organize an Investor Day around in that timeframe. And we again thank you very much for your interest in Constellium and your participation on this call today. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we thank you, sir and to the rest of the management team for your time also. Again, we thank you all for attending today's presentation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines. Again, we thank you all for your patience take care and have a great day, everyone.