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Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 23, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dan Dinges, Chairman, President, and CEO. Please go ahead. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Carrie, and good morning to all. I appreciate you joining us on this third quarter earnings call. I do have the management team gathered with me. And also, as usual, the forward-looking statements included in this morning's release do apply to my comments today. We would like to touch upon a couple of financial and operating highlights from the third quarter that were outlined in the release this morning. First, the equivalent net production for the third quarter was 1.544 Bcf billion cubic foot equivalent per day, an increase of 7% as compared to the third quarter of 2014. Year-to-date, our production volumes have increased 19% relative to the first nine months of 2014. Operating cash flow, discretionary cash flow, and EBITDAX were $146 million, $150 million and $168 million respectively. All of these financial metrics were lower relative to the third quarter of 2014 primarily as a result of a 34% decline in realized natural gas prices and a 54% decline in realized oil prices which also resulted in a slight loss for the quarter. Operationally, I'll move to the Marcellus first. Similar to our discussion in the second quarter, we continue to curtail production in the Marcellus during the third quarter due to the weak pricing throughout Appalachia. There are two takeaway projects coming online during the fourth quarter that will be…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. At this time we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Doug Leggate of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Dan. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Doug.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

So I wonder if you could help us with the shut-in volumes and how we should think about how you're prioritizing the next moves with your slowdown in activity. What I mean is, do you – does the volume come back before you add more rigs? And if you could quantify for me, and I've got a follow-up, please. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Doug. We have curtailed volumes right now. We have volumes that were not moving that do not require any additional capital to move those incremental volumes. And keep in mind that in regard to curtailed volumes, we might get the question in regard to how much you shut-in and what ability you have to be able to move incremental volumes. But we have adjusted our capital program as we've gone through 2015 to take in consideration curtailments. And so, that tweaking of our capital allocation has certainly delayed some of our originally scheduled and budgeted frac stage completions. And we've also amended our directives to the frac crew to initiate only during daylight hours. So, we're sliding out some of that activity. So, as we roll through the year and the amount of activity we're conducting right now, and the various swings that we have through our marketing group on a month-to-month on what we're moving, that curtailed volume is a variable number, if you will.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay. I'll maybe follow up offline. My follow-up, Dan, is really more I guess on the assumptions for the spending next year. Are you looking to spend within cash flow including the pipeline affiliate CapEx? And if so, can you give us some idea – I know it's a really tough question to answer, but what are your thoughts on the differential in your plan for 2016? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the capital allocation, the $615 million, is to the drilling completion program where 93% of that is directed to that. The additional $150 million is allocated to the Constitution and Atlantic Sunrise. And that's making the assumption if some of those expenditures fall in line as we have currently predicted which would have an in-service date of Constitution of the end of 2016 and the September in-service date of Atlantic Sunrise. And the total expenditure, if the $150 million of equity investments and pipeline is made, there will be a slight overspend of cash flow at these conservative prices that we've used. And as far as the differential is concerned, we have forecast a slight compression of the differentials into 2016, and the assumption we're making there is that some of these takeaway items that we've referenced in November of this year and in December of this year along with the expectation of Constitution coming online, we think on a weighted average basis that our differentials would compact a little bit.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

I'll leave it there. Thanks, Dan. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Phillip Jungwirth of BMO. Please go ahead.

Phillip Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Hey. Good morning. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Phillip Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

When you referenced accelerating Marcellus activity in the third quarter in anticipation of Constitution coming online, does this imply that you'll increase the rig count from the two rigs or would you primarily be looking to increase completions? And is three rigs still a good estimate of maintenance activity or what needs to hold 2 Bcf a day of gross production flat? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Phillip, on both those questions you're accurate, we would be around the three rig count in the Marcellus. And we feel like we'll be able to maintain our production flat with the capital program that we've outlined, if that's what we choose to do.

Phillip Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Okay. And then most of your or many of the Appalachian producers are hedged in 2016, and in some cases well beyond that. Could you update us on your latest thoughts around hedging in 2015 or 2017 both your NYMEX and local pricing exposure? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We're unhedged in 2016 and 2017. And I think the industry as a whole is probably less than 20% hedged in 2016 and certainly lower percentage hedged in 2017. Our desire would be to hedge volumes and protect some of the space. It's been a difficult market to hedge. If you look at it, it has not been a real liquid market. And the discount that we've been able to realize when we've gotten quotes has not been attractive but enough for us to place the hedges.

Phillip Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

And then of the $150 million in JV contributions planned for 2016, could you break that out by Constitution and Atlantic Sunrise? And then, would this be all of the required CapEx for Constitution or would you still have some spending that could fill in to 2017? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So, we have $100 million allocated to Constitution and $50 million allocated to Atlantic Sunrise for 2016.

Phillip Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks a lot. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bob Morris of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

Thanks. Dan, I think in the past, you've indicated that essentially, the drop dead date for beginning construction on Constitution in order to get it completed in on line or in-service next year is early January and that assumes everything went smoothly. Is that still the case? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Bob. The window is certainly still open for us. We do need the New York approval. And your timing is accurate on being able to commence construction sometime in the mid or latter part of January to be able to move forward and meet our commissioning on the fourth quarter of 2016. That's correct.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

And then my second question is, once you drop the rig in the Eagle Ford, what is the oil price you need in order to put a rig back to work there and pick activity back up in Eagle Ford? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It's not a specific number we're looking at Bob. It's going to be a function of several things. One, how efficient we've been able to execute the program based on the assumptions that we've made. And also, certainly, looking at the dynamics of the – macro dynamics of the natural gas market and looking at what commodity price differentials we've been able to realize throughout the first part of 2016. Those things will play into our decision about the allocation of additional capital, obviously, along with the cost of a barrel and what, frankly, what service cost do, in fact, if you do see a increase in the value per barrel.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

And on the service cost, you don't expect any reduction in completion cost next year in the Marcellus, why is that? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We do expect a little bit of reduction in the completion cost in 2016.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

Okay. All right, I must have misheard you. Thank you. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No. We expect the drilling completion cost to be over 15% per lateral foot less than what we saw in 2015.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

Right. But I thought it was just on the completion side. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No. That's both drilling and complete – yeah.

Robert Scott Morris - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Pearce Hammond of Simmons & Company. Please go ahead. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: Good morning, Dan. Thanks for taking my questions. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Pearce. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: My first question is on the 2016 production guidance, can you provide any kind of mix or liquids production growth? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, our liquids is going to be consistent with what we exit our fourth quarter of 2015 average. And that's going to be our liquids number. And we were thinking anywhere between 14,000 to 15,500 barrels is the fourth quarter guidance. Natural gas, we're going to be at 1.475 to 1.6 as our fourth quarter guidance. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: Great. Thank you. And then how many drilled uncompleted wells do you think you'll have at year end 2015 based on your guidance for 2016? It looks like that's coming down by about 30 wells. I had in my notes previously that you are talking about having about 70 wells in backlog at year-end 2015, about 50 in the Marcellus and about 20 in the Eagle Ford. I'm just curious if that was still the same. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. We're going to have 55 or so in the Marcellus and we'll have, Steve, 22 wells in the Eagle Ford that are in backlog going into 2016. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: And then at year-end 2016, that's going to be reduced by approximately 30 based on your guidance? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We have 39 wells in the Marcellus, and we have about seven wells in the Eagle Ford. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: Thank you. And then one last from me, just a clarification, in the prepared remarks, did you say that it will take about $175 million of CapEx to hold your production flat in the Marcellus? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. If you wanted to hold it flat... Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: For maintenance... Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. That's what it would take. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: And so, does that imply that there's about $250 million, $280 million of growth CapEx for the Marcellus for this next year? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That's correct. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: Okay. All right. Thank you very much, Dan. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And some of that obviously is directed towards 2017 also. Pearce Wheless Hammond - Simmons & Company International: Great. Thank you, Dan. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research. Please go ahead. Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Thanks, guys, for the color on your curtailed production and kind of wells in backlog. What do you see your competitors in Northeast, PA having in terms of those two curtailed production and wells in backlog? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Bob, that's hard to get our arms around. We think there are curtailed volumes up there. There certainly has been a reduction in the level of activity as we referenced nine rigs and only a handful of rigs and, I mean, completion crews. And we think there will be, from this point forward, we think there'll be less than 700 or so stages completed between now and year-end up in the Northeast, PA. So, to be able to say how much is curtailed and how much is being worked off, it's a hard number to come up with. Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And a quick question, going from 24-hour to 12-hour completion crews, is there a cost related to that or loss of efficiency? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think, we probably – I think, it's safe to say you have a little bit loss of efficiency by not doing 24/7 operations. But overall, when we reference our decrease in cost from 2015 to our anticipated cost in 2016, we certainly have taken that ineffective part of our program into consideration. Bob Alan Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Okay. Great. Thank you. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Brian. Brian A. Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: If we take your 2016 CapEx guidance together with your backlog and curtailments, what production capacity should we expect you to have at the end of 2016? And really trying to think about the upside case in which Constitution and Atlantic Sunrise come on by 2017, what additional drilling you'll need to meet those obligations? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hard number to come up with, specifically, on what we have. I'm kind of looking around the table and nobody's raised their hand yet on that, Brian. But let me say it this way that as we put together our program for 2016, we felt and certainly feel very comfortable about what we're able to deliver in volumes for 2016. Highlighting that point is the amount of capital necessary to just keep us flat is – it's not inconsequential but it's not a very, very high number at all. But looking at 2016 was not really the target of what we tried to accomplish with our program. We approach it in a conservative manner, trying to stay within cash flow, using a conservative commodity price. And, frankly, in our range that we used, again, risking our number, though our expectation is Constitution will be a 2016 event, we have actually not included any volumes in our 2% to 10% range on the production range that we provided in our guidance. So, in looking at what we're able to have rolling out of 2016 with our current capital program, and looking…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Beard of Coker Palmer. Please go ahead.

David E. Beard - Coker and Palmer Investment Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Coker Palmer. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning, Dan. Most of my questions have been asked. But I wonder if you could give us a little color on the service costs that you outlined. Is that a 15% decline from average of this year or from this point going forward? And could you give us any color of that number between efficiencies and actually price cuts? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Okay. The cost – the 15% drilling completion cost – total well cost reduction is from our average of 2015 costs. And I'm sorry, David, I didn't get the second part of your question.

David E. Beard - Coker and Palmer Investment Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Coker Palmer. Please go ahead

And just of that 15% decline per lateral foot, how much of that comes from efficiencies versus price declines from vendors? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We had a slide in our most recent investor presentation. And on the completion side, the majority of the cost is from cost reductions. On the drilling side, the majority of the cost is from efficiencies. And we have a slightly higher cost on the total well cost, drilling and complete, completion costs represent a little bit higher percentage of total well cost than the drilling side.

David E. Beard - Coker and Palmer Investment Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Coker Palmer. Please go ahead

Good. That's helpful. Appreciate the color. Thanks for the time. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Deckelbaum of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Good morning, Dan. Thanks for all the color and everything. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, David.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Just as a point of clarification, with Atlantic Sunrise, obviously, being larger volumetrically coming on in second half of 2017, is it fair to say that the 2016 program that you have lined out right now, even if Constitution gets delayed even further that this is sort of like the minimal amount of activity that you would have going on in the Marcellus because there's obviously not a whole lot of capital required to keep the production flat. But as you're looking at this multi-year progression ramping into what would be required for Atlantic Sunrise as well, if by some measure we end up thinking that Constitution is going to come on line materially later than anticipated, is there some downside to that 2016 CapEx number? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Downside in the sense that we would reduce our capital program.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

You'll be spending less than – yeah. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We would manage that, yes. We would manage that allocation of capital, and we certainly do not want to have capital sitting out in the field that we can't monetize. So, we would probably reduce our exposure, reduce our capital until the appropriate time that we could plan for the commissioning of the pipeline if we were to see a significant delay in the commissioning. But I wouldn't have expected the approval to occur on Constitution prior to this time. However, I'm not disillusioned to the extent that we don't expect it to come in a timely manner for 2016's estimated commissioning.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I appreciate that. And just a last one for me, Dan or Jeff. Could you contrast, I mean, qualitatively from an operator perspective the differences of the risk in your mind of waiting on Constitution relative to waiting on Atlantic Sunrise and how those two processes – as investors wait for Constitution to come on here and the process is quite delayed? Can you contrast the experience so far with Atlantic Sunrise and maybe the difference in that risk of delay? Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, Atlantic Sunrise is making – I'll let Jeff weigh in in a second to make kind of editorial comment. But on Constitution, we have been years in discussions, preparation and have fulfilled all of the requests, all the mitigating factors, all of the hurdles that have been brought by the interested parties, including the New York DEC. We have added certainly some of the mitigating factors, added incremental cost to the project. We had a major reroute of the – that was fine with Constitution to mitigate any watershed issues. And in fact, by that reroute, we improved what we think was any impact. And we have again on stream crossings have extensive plan in place that mitigates any of the concerns about stream crossings. And that has been well documented by the DEC and now has been prepared into a final document. So, I think everybody's pleased with that effort. Atlantic Sunrise is in that same process now in having discussions for the mitigation factors and looking at the right of ways to be able to mitigate any concerns that any stakeholders might have at that stage. I feel comfortable that the outline and the timing of commissioning that we've laid out is going to be met. Jeff, you can weigh in on...

Jeffrey W. Hutton - Senior Vice President-Marketing

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yeah. David, probably the biggest difference on the two projects besides just the learning curve aspect of the second project is the route on the Greenfield portion of Atlantic Sunrise is totally in the State of Pennsylvania, where we have a long history of working with the DEP and with the FERC. And so, I think from a simpler project aspect, it's gone smoothly so far. I mean, the community outreach portion of the project's been very successful. The survey permissions and the right of way acquisitions been very successful to-date. Project is on schedule. And we're – at this point in time, we look very good in terms of hitting the in-service date.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead

That's helpful, guys. Thank you. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dan Dinges for any closing remarks. Dan O. Dinges - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I appreciate the interest in Cabot. I know there are some frustration by all of us on our ability to be able to get the infrastructure in place and commissioned and to be able to move the natural gas in support of all those that are looking forward to having it. I do hope that the takeaway this morning is that Cabot does remain focused in all the right areas, and that is a disciplined focus on the efficiencies and returns while managing our business for the long-term success of the organization. Additionally, we remain committed to effectively managing those controllable variables that we have in our program and also mitigate the uncontrollables the best as we possibly can. So, again, thank you. And certainly, I think Cabot has some brighter days out in front of it. Thank you, Carrie.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.