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Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 8, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Citi Trends Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Nitza McKee, Senior Associate at ICR. Please go ahead, Nitza.

Nitza McKee

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on Citi Trends' Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. On our call today is Chief Executive Officer, Ken Seipel; and Chief Financial Officer, Heather Plutino. Our earnings release was sent out this morning at 6:45 a.m. Eastern Time. If you have not received a copy of the release, it's available on the company's website under the Investor Relations section at www.cititrends.com. You should be aware that prepared remarks today made during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. These statements do not guarantee future performance. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. We refer you to the company's most recent report on Form 10-K and other subsequent filings within the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Ken Seipel. Ken?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Thank you, Nitza. Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter earnings call. I am pleased to report another quarter of consistent performance, demonstrating disciplined execution and progress across every area of our business. Our transformation strategy is gaining significant momentum, our operational capabilities are advancing and our customer connection is strengthening. As I shared at a recent investor conference, we're in the early stages of what I believe will be a compelling transformation for Citi Trends. We've established a clear line of sight to achieve approximately $45 million of EBITDA in 2027, which represents a $60 million increase from the 2024 levels. The substantial growth trajectory will be driven by our continued focus on consistent comparable store sales performance, gross margin expansion, operating expense leverage and strategic new store expansion. Today, I'll walk you through the drivers of our third quarter results and provide additional details on how we're executing against this exciting long-range road map. Turning now to our results. In the third quarter, we delivered comparable store sales growth of 10.8%, which represents a 16.5% growth on a 2-year basis. This marks our fifth consecutive quarter and 15th straight month of strong comp growth with total sales up 10.1% as compared to last year in the quarter. Consistent with our year-to-date performance, the majority of our Q3 sales results were due to increased customer traffic. We began the quarter with a strong back-to-school season, and we finished the quarter with an equally strong late fall fashion and pre-holiday product performance with particular strength in Children's, Men's and basic apparel categories throughout the entire quarter. Our Q3 performance brings our year-to-date comp to a 10% or plus 12.3% on a 2-year basis. We're seeing positive sales increases across all store volume…

Heather Plutino

Analyst

Thank you, Ken, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to walk you through the details of our third quarter performance, which demonstrates once again the consistency and effectiveness of our transformation strategy. That clear strategy plus the foundational improvements made to date have created remarkable momentum across the business, and we are delivering measurable progress across key operational metrics. Starting with the top line, Q3 total sales were $197.1 million, up 10.1% compared to Q3 2024. Comparable store sales increased 10.8%, 16.5% on a 2-year stack basis. Ken said this already, but it's so good it warrants repeating, our Q3 performance marks our fifth consecutive quarter and 15th straight month of strong comp growth, a remarkable feat, particularly in the current retail environment. We delivered strong comps in each month of the quarter and saw consistent year-over-year growth in both traffic and basket as our revised merchandise assortment, including off-price deals and more branded extreme value product continues to resonate strongly with our customers, enabling us to gain market share. We also saw positive results across all climate zones across all store volume groups and across all product categories, demonstrating the broad-based nature of our improving results. Third quarter gross margin was 38.9%. While 90 basis points lower than Q3 2024, these results were in line with our expectations. Recall that in the second quarter of last year, we incurred significant markdowns from our strategic inventory reset, allowing us to exit aged and slow-moving products while freeing up open-to-buy for our revised product strategy to fuel our top line growth. As a result, markdowns and shrink in Q3 of last year were unnaturally low, creating an unfavorable comparison for the current year period. As Ken mentioned, early in the third quarter, we decided to shift inventory and related freight expense…

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Thank you, Heather. Before I turn the call back to the operator to facilitate Q&A, I do want to emphasize that the transformation of Citi Trends is well underway. We remain guided by our 3-phase framework to deliver -- designed to deliver sustainable profit growth. The first phase, repair, is about restoring fundamentals and establishing a strong foundation for growth. The second phase, execute, focuses on hardening consistent best practices to drive reliable, predictable performance. And the final phase, optimize, leverages the work of the first 2 phases to accelerate our EBITDA growth. As a result of our efforts, in the first 2 phases of this transformation, we've made meaningful improvements, including an improved product assortment strategy, a better in-store stopping in-store shopping experience for our customer and improvements in many processes and systems. Our 5 consecutive quarters of comp store growth is a proof point that our strategy is working, our execution is getting better, and our customer connection is stronger than ever as we firmly establish ourselves as a leading off-price retailer for our customers. While we're proud of our results so far, we fully recognize there is significant opportunity ahead. I want to emphasize that we're in early stages of this transformation. There's still work to do, processes to refine, categories to optimize and systems to build, but the path forward is clear. We are confident in our ability to deliver continued transformation, drive shareholder value and expand our role as the leading neighborhood retailer for African American families. I want to thank the entire Citi Trends team for executing with discipline, driving quickly towards our stated goals and most of all, for delivering results. The team is doing the hard day-to-day work to unlock sustainable growth and shareholder value, and we are just getting started. Thank you, everyone. And now I'd like to turn it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] then return to the queue. Our first question is coming from Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson.

Michael Baker

Analyst

Great. Great quarter. So if I think about the 2-year plan to get to about $900 million, it probably implies another $85 million or so in sales growth in '26 and '27. You talked a lot about some merchandising opportunities and categories. But a little bit more detail on where are the biggest holes or opportunities in your merchandising right now, either by product category or buy good, better, best or however you want to articulate, where does that -- those incremental sales come from?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Yes, for sure, Mike. Thanks. We, as I mentioned in the script, we are seeing broad-based growth throughout all the categories. And so at the top level for all categories, we've really sharpened our focus on better trend product. And we have seen good reaction to that this year and continued reaction. I mentioned briefly that we have just implemented a young Men's category, that's actually just setting in the stores right now. We're seeing good reaction to that. And as we begin to understand a little bit more about that dynamic, there's significant opportunity there. Equally across the aisle in our Women's category, we've always had a pretty strong juniors business, but we recognize that there's a missing component of that as well as plus sizes that needs to be fully matured. And then on top of that, overlay trend product and those categories as well. And so that's a little bit of a new business for us relative to those 2 categories getting reset. And then across the fleet. We're just getting -- going in shoes in our footwear category. The team, as I remarked, had a pretty good Q3 in Women's. We're off to a good start there. But we have significant opportunity, multiple millions of dollars of opportunity to grow our shoe business back to even, say, historical levels, let alone to catch up to where we are in the overall store. So there's significant opportunity there. And then I would highlight, and I don't mean to make this so broad based, but it really truly is how we're looking at it. In Kids, for example, as we continue to build that business, it gets stronger and stronger and stronger. We've been executing quite well in Kids. But as we continue to invest in inventory, we see it grow. So there's areas throughout the store that we see that they just offer tremendous opportunities for growth. And then I guess I'll put the punchline for all this. The other piece of it. Don't forget that we have the extreme value opportunity. And we're doing a fairly small percentage of our business and extreme value right now. It's working quite well, and we see significant growth there. All of that actually totals up to, in my mind, a very obtainable $900 million.

Michael Baker

Analyst

Great. If I could ask a follow-up, I suppose, by virtue of the 10.8% comp, your trends are probably consistent throughout the month. You talked about consistency by product category and store cohort. Can you talk about the pace through the quarter? And if there was any impact from the government shutdown, SNAP, anything during those few weeks?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Yes. I'll make some high-level comments, and then Heather can fill in any of the specifics here. But the good news about our consumer right now, they've shown remarkable resiliency with all of the macro changes around government SNAP and different programs like that. And candidly, we've really seen no major impact as the shopping patterns have remained consistent throughout the quarter. As I mentioned, we got off to a really good start in August. August was tremendous for us, led by our Kids division. All divisions did well, but Kids really had a tremendous back-to-school period. And then I was really pleased with how we finished the quarter. October, particularly the last 3 weeks of October really accelerated quite well. I mentioned in the script that we advanced some of our freight from Q4 into Q3. When that hit our stores, we actually saw a really strong consumer reaction.

Heather Plutino

Analyst

Yes. Mike, the only thing I would add to that is that it was a pretty tight band. It looks a little bit like a barbell, stronger in the beginning, first month, third month, middle month was a little softer, but the range is like 9.5% to 12%. So it's not like a severe dip in the middle, or severe spike. So yes, pretty consistent.

Operator

Operator

Next question today is coming from Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Congrats on the impressive results. I wanted to just come back to the point, Ken, that you were making on some of these extreme value deals, which we saw some of those drop towards the end of the quarter, some notable deals with products like UGG, HOKA, Timberland brands, Jordan brand, et cetera. And that did seem to be a big driver of your strong traffic. But where are you in terms of extreme value as kind of a portion of the product inventory and sales today? And I think you mentioned that you're expecting over the next couple of years to get that up to about 10%. How do you expect that to progress over time? And what type of visibility do you have on continuing to drive deal flow across kind of major name brands?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Yes. Good. Thanks, Jeremy. I appreciate it. A couple of things in our current status, extreme value deal flow, as I mentioned, continues to be very robust for the team. And we're being pretty discerning about what's being brought into the business right now. Many -- I guess we probably passed on a 3:1 ratio of adoption of deals that come across the desk, maybe even more. And as a result of that, the current sales performance of extreme value deals is probably in the 2% to 3% of business range, and that I'll just give you a broad range right now. It varies a little bit by category. And back to your point, we've seen a path to getting that closer to 10% as we continue to mature. So there's a significant opportunity there. And we're learning a lot as we're bringing some of these deals in. Many of them have really responded much better than anticipated. If you have been a little bit slower than anticipated, a lot of it has to do with consumer acceptance and reaction of it. But as we're getting better and understanding how to do extreme value deals, particularly with our supply chain processing, we see that, and I believe that remains to be a competitive weapon for us going forward.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

And then switching gears here to talking about the store fleet. And as you are rolling out stores for '26 and seeing a nice uptick in your unit growth, what do you expect the cadence of openings to be in '26? And then you mentioned 2027, is that going to be kind of consistent in terms of store openings now that you've got visibility on the number of units that you're planning to open?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Yes. I'll give you a little bit of color on the process going forward into 2027. Our real estate team right now is working on a number of deals in the pipeline. And our goal will be, going forward, to open up our stores really at 3 distinct times of the year. We'll be opening up stores in early spring, going into the spring period, the [indiscernible] season. We'll be opening up stores in July, going into back-to-school. And we'll open up a group of stores in October going into holiday. And so I would expect that, that fleet going forward, the 40 stores that I mentioned earlier, you can probably divide that equally by 3 into those time frames and probably have a really good view of how we're looking at the business from our side. In 2026, we'll have lighter openings in the spring. We're just getting caught up there. Most of those openings will be more in July and August, probably equally split there -- or excuse me, July and October, equally split between those 2 months, to give you an idea as we get caught up and get this engine moving forward in new store growth.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Great. And then just one more for me. I know that you've got a lot of initiatives that are going on, a lot of technology initiatives. But I wanted to ask about your shrink mitigation efforts. I know this is something that you've been working on very diligently. And I think you had a pretty decent gap to close of where you wanted to get that, too. But any color you can share on the progress, on those efforts? What the impact is to your gross margin? And what do you expect to pick up from that kind of in 2026?

Heather Plutino

Analyst

Jeremy, I'm going to grab that one. So we've rolled out new camera systems in about 1/3 of our stores in 2025. And these new camera systems not only provide what you would expect visibility into the store, but they're AI-capable and allow for our loss prevention team to use facial recognition, which you can imagine is helpful not only to protect our stores, but to engage with local law enforcement and to help the community, not just our Citi Trends stores. So we're excited about that. Those cameras also have, outside of loss prevention and shrink prevention, they have heat mapping capability, which will help us understand customer shopping patterns and they have traffic counting capability, which obviously is an important component as well. So we're excited about that. We're going to roll out to more than 2x that number of stores into 2026, so that we can leverage that very, very quickly. You and I talked about this before, but our break rate in 2025, it still remains what I understand to be in line with averages for retail. So we're not satisfied yet. And that means that it's less than 1.5% of sales, right? So still higher than we want it to be, less worried about the rate than I am about the dollars. I think we still have a few million to give back to the company on shrink mitigation over time. Now as I look at 2026, our plan assumes a decrease in both dollars and rate in 2026 based on technology, based on talent. We are upgrading and updating our talent in our loss prevention teams. And based on processes, we are training regularly our store management teams and our district managers on shrink mitigation. So all of that comes together to say that we expected a decrease in 2026 and a further decrease in 2027.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Fantastic. Last one for me. So you also noted the implementation of technology, improving CRM. Can you elaborate at all in terms of how you plan to use that as the company continues to gravitate to using a bit more digital marketing efforts. Are there -- is there a thought around kind of loyalty program that you're leaning into? But any more color you might be able to share on kind of the timing of when the CRM update is happening and what you expect the outcome to be from that?

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

Yes, for sure, Jeremy. We are in the process, as I mentioned, of really getting it out and testing and developing the systems and the processes that go along with that. Our goal will be to launch a CRM in Q1 of this next year. And we don't have an exact date yet. We're still trying to pin down some stuff on the technology and its readiness and so forth. But think about a Phase 1 implementation in Q1. And then there will be a Phase 2 implementation in the fall of 2026. The way I want you to think about CRM and loyalty for our business is we're actually going to be calling it "The Insider's Club." We'll have a much better title I'm sure by the time we get to it. And it's effectively going to be a way for our customers to tap into emerging trends and deals. You think about the value of being a part of our loyalty club and being one of the first ones to know about some of these amazing extreme value deals that are coming down the pipeline. We have the ability to notify our best customers. They can kind of come in and shop first, invest, and be kind of in the know, if you will, around emerging deals that are coming to the store. We believe that there will be a significant interest in that. And that actually has the ability then to drive incremental traffic with some of our best and most loyal consumers. And beyond that, we're also trying to build in additional tools to make the shopping experience easier for our best customers. As an example, one of the things that they'll gain is actually the ability to have electronic receipts. And so quickly, they can have that stored and be on their phone and eventually we'll have an app on there that they can just simply access that had also a layaway programs and things of that nature will have digital access. So the goal here is to make it in Insider's Club, and then to find ways to make the shopping experience a little bit easier and more convenient for our consumer. And then as you mentioned, the intangible value for us is we're going to have a pretty significant database of consumers that are highly engaged that we can speak to with regularity via these marketing ideas.

Operator

Operator

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for your further closing comments.

Kenneth Seipel

Analyst

I'd like to thank everybody for attending today's call. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.