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CTS Corporation (CTS)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the CTS Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. My name is Alex, and I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand it over to your host, Kieran O'Sullivan, CEO, to begin. Please go ahead.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thanks, Alex. Good morning, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings call. We continue to see weak demand in industrial and distribution markets impacting sales as elevated inventories that our customers slowly correct. We are also seeing softening in commercial vehicle demand across the light vehicle transportation market. The impact of the UAW strike was low for the third quarter. We continue to expand our customer base in industrial and medical markets where we had several product wins. We also secured our first development award for a motor position sensor with application in electrified vehicles. Our focus on profitable growth, driving diversification through our advanced materials capability and growth through electrification in mobility markets with innovative new products remain our highest priorities. I am pleased with our team's prudent management of operating expenses during the quarter given the current sales softness. We remain focused on achieving our long-term strategic growth goals while also improving our operational performance. For the third quarter 2023, sales were $135 million, down 11% compared to the same period last year. Adjusted gross margin was 34.5%, down 210 basis points from the same period in 2022. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.54, down $0.08 compared to the third quarter of 2022. We added eight new customers in the quarter. I already mentioned the first motor position development award, which opens a new product line opportunity, enabling us to capture additional growth through the electrification megatrend and builds momentum beyond the first eBrake win last quarter. Ashish will take us through the safe harbor statement. Ashish?

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

I would like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties is contained in the press release issued today, and more information can be found in the company's SEC filings. To the extent that today's discussion refers to any non-GAAP measures under Regulation G, the required explanations and reconciliations are available in the investors section of the CTS website. I will now turn the discussion back over to our CEO, Kieran O'Sullivan.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thank you, Ashish. We continue to experience challenging demand dynamics, driven primarily by higher levels of customer inventory. Sales were $135 million, down 11% from the same period last year. While the UAW strike had a low sales impact in the quarter, we expect it will pressure sales further in the fourth quarter. Operationally, with the reduced volume, we continue to focus on cost reductions. As communicated, we will have some temporary cost increases as we complete our previously announced Mexico site consolidation. Work is progressing on the site consolidation, and we are on track to complete the transition next year. Inflationary impacts are improving, but continue to be a challenge in some areas. We are adjusting pricing in partnership with our customers, as we are still experiencing certain raw material cost increases and continued wage inflation, especially in Mexico and certain other countries. We are also prioritizing our organic growth projects and new product investments, while focusing on disciplined management of operating expenses during the softer short-term sales environment. We added eight new customers in the quarter, with new production orders and through qualification progress on sample orders. In addition, we are partnering with five new customers in industrial, two in medical, and one in transportation to qualify our products in different applications. We had solid new business awards, especially for electrification platforms. We had a book-to-bill rate in the quarter of 0.93. Non-transportation sales declined 20% in the third quarter compared to the prior-year period. In the industrial market, sales continue to be soft, driven by decreased demand for micro actuators used in industrial printing applications, due primarily to softness in China. We are also seeing softness across other industrial sensing applications and distribution, as inventory levels continue to correct. We were successful with several wins -- sales…

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Thank you, Kieran. Third quarter sales were $135 million, down 11% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Sales to the transportation and market decreased 3% year-over-year, driven by softness in sales of smart actuators for commercial vehicles. Sales to other end markets declined by approximately 20% year-over-year due to the inventory reduction-related slowdown, primarily in the industrial and distribution end markets. Adjusted gross margin was 34.5% in the third quarter, down 210 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. As expected, margins were impacted by an unfavorable end market mix. Foreign exchange rates also impacted gross margin unfavorably by approximately $1.8 million. We are seeing continued pressure on wage costs in some of the countries we operate in. On the materials side, we are still experiencing cost increases in some specific areas, and we are working with our customers to share these cost increases. As Kieran highlighted, we remain focused on making operational improvements and driving cost reductions to enable long-term gross margin expansion. In light of the market conditions, we implemented temporary cost reduction measures to flex our cost structure in the second half of this year. In the third quarter, our operating expenses were lower, also due to a reversal of approximately $2.5 million in reserves related to incentive plans. We expect our fourth quarter total operating expenses, excluding restructuring costs, to be slightly higher than the third quarter. In the third quarter, we reported earnings of $0.44 per diluted share. Our adjusted earnings were $0.54 per diluted share compared to $0.62 per diluted share in the same period last year. Next, discussing our cash flow and balance sheet, we generated $22 million in operating cash flow during the third quarter of 2023. Free cash flow was $19 million, as we carefully managed capital expenditures.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question for today comes from Joshua Buchalter from TD Cowen. Joshua, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Joshua Buchalter

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I appreciate you called out the UAW as an impact -- UAW strike as an impact in the third quarter of the year, and also recognize this is literally happening in real time. But is there any way you can quantify how much of an impact that was in the third quarter and the fourth quarter outlook? And is there any reason to think that this wouldn't -- whatever was lost, because the strike wouldn't be made up in the next couple quarters as well? Thank you.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Joshua, thanks for your question. So, for the third quarter, the UAW impact was pretty minimal. But as we go forward, we see -- we've already been impacted in the fourth quarter, and we see that impact probably in the $2 million to $4 million range. And I also mentioned softness in commercial vehicle. We would see that somewhere maybe in the $10 million unit range for the fourth quarter.

Joshua Buchalter

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And then, thanks for all the details on the site consolidation. Is there any way to quantify or help, like-for-like, how much of a margin tailwind that could be once you get fully up and running in your steady state in Mexico?

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Yeah. Josh, what we have called out for that is it's a Mexico to Mexico transition. So, we are not expecting a significant change in profitability just from the move itself. We are looking to have more stability in our production processes, and that'll enable us to do more business with the customers that we have at our existing Juarez location.

Joshua Buchalter

Analyst

Got it. And then, last one for me. It was interesting you called out China domestic competition in the prepared remarks. Is that something new that you're seeing? Is that changing materially? Is it any specific products or end markets where you're feeling that the most? Thank you, and I'll be quiet now.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Yeah, Joshua, on that one, we've spoken about it in the last few quarters. We have two larger customers over there, Toyota and Honda. They've lost some share short term. So, that's something we're keeping a close eye on. It obviously impacts us.

Joshua Buchalter

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful clarification. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Franzreb of Sidoti & Company. John, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Good morning, Kieran and Ashish. Thanks for taking the questions. I'd like to go back to the change in the revenue guidance. You called out $10 million from commercial vehicle and $2 million to $4 million from UAW. But what about the balance that makes up that $25 million midpoint? It certainly seemed in the second quarter, you were a little bit optimistic that some of those industrial end markets would rebound. What changed?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

John, the inventory built up and if you read just industry sentiment out there on inventory levels, while it's improving in terms of burning down the inventory, we're not there at the level we'd like to be at yet. So, when you look at the guide going forward in terms of where we're going to be end of the year in the quarter softness, it's a combination of that continued industrial and distribution softness. Now, the softness that we see in commercial vehicle and the UAW strike, which obviously is still impacting two of our customers directly.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. And then, is -- just maybe customer specific. Toyota has been a laggard in rebuilding their inventory compared to the Detroit 3. Any sense of when they're going to catch up a little bit? What are you hearing from their production rates? And what their outlook looks like?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

I think Toyota continues to do well in Europe and North America. Our concern, John, more is in China where the competition and pricing has been a bit more tougher and also the transition to electrification has been a little faster. I know Toyota has come out in recent days and said that, hey, now we're seeing a softness in demand for EVs and the hybrids are going to benefit. So that's something we'll continue to track.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. But no sense when they're going to rebuild their inventory here in North America? They're still at the lowest end of the curve.

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Yeah. John, they obviously are not communicating to us directly in terms of what their intentions are. We do see their orders as they place them a few weeks out. We are monitoring it carefully, but I wouldn't be calling out any significant uptick or downtick from there.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. And just again, on the end markets, the commercial vehicle end market, there's certainly some trepidation about how '24 will look like versus '23. Any early thoughts about what you're budgeting as far as kind of a build rate in '24 versus '23 as far as up or down or any kind of relative expectations? Thank you.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

No, John, what I would tell you is obviously we've got a good line of sight to Q4. That's why I called out the range of $10 million. That's our estimate. And into 2024, just given the taper off that's been there and that catch up in the aftermarket side of it, that softness will continue into the first quarter. What the full year will be like, we'll give you a better guide in our Q1 earnings call. That's the best I can tell you at the moment.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, guys. I'll get back into queue.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Justin Long of Stephens. Justin, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Justin Long

Analyst

Thanks, and good morning.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Good morning, Justin.

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Hi, Justin.

Justin Long

Analyst

Good morning. I wanted to circle back to the comments that you made about commercial vehicle weakness driving a $10 million headwind. Were you referring to a sequential headwind in revenue relative to the third quarter, or was that a year-over-year comment?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

No, sequential, Justin

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay. So, if I kind of run the math on the implied revenue guidance for the fourth quarter, it seems to suggest at the midpoint about $10 million of sequential pressure, 3Q to 4Q. And based on the UAW strike and commercial vehicle weakness, sounds like all of that is coming from those two items. So, is that the right interpretation? And how are you thinking about non-transportation revenue sequentially in the fourth quarter? Could it look more stable?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Yeah. You've characterized it correctly with the CV drop, commercial vehicle drop, and the UAW, and on the other markets, getting more stable and hoping to see some improvement coming in that area.

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay. Understood. Ashish, you touched on operating costs earlier a bit, but if I look at the SG&A line in particular, it was a pretty significant decrease in the third quarter relative to the second quarter, about $5 million. It sounds like half of that roughly was the incentive adjustment. What drove that other half? And could you just talk about the sustainability of some of the cost cuts it sounds like you're implementing into next year?

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Yeah. So overall, Justin, you're looking at the numbers correctly. We have taken short-term cost improvement measures for Q3 and for Q4. What you'll also see is that R&D expenses were slightly elevated in the third quarter because just timing of different projects. So overall, when I look at operating expenses, excluding restructuring, we are expecting a slight increase in the fourth quarter compared to Q3, but not significant. And the increase is primarily because of that reserve release that I talked about for incentive compensation.

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay. And is there a way to quantify the other temporary cost reductions? And how much longer those could last? Kind of what are the signs or the catalysts that you're looking for to put those costs back in the business whenever demand improves?

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Yeah. So, we are looking, Justin, in the second half of the year is our primary objective, and then we'll keep reviewing things as we go further along.

Justin Long

Analyst

Okay. Understood. And last one for me. The book-to-bill was close to 1 times in the quarter despite some of the demand challenges and macro environment that's uncertain. Could you just comment on the order pipeline that you're seeing today and your comfort level that we can continue to trend around this 1 times book-to-bill?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Justin, on winning new business in terms of that side of it, we're doing very well. You heard me mention a new motor position, a sensor, that's new market for us. It opens up an opportunity with a SAM of about $700 million, growing at a double-digit percent. We see great progress in current sensing. We've got a good pipeline of opportunities. And that's just on top of what's happening in medical and defense where we've been doing well. So, it's a tough quarter, calling it what it is, but we feel like we've got good momentum going on winning new business. The book-to-bill quarter-to-quarter going forward is going to be kind of more of a steady improvement, but the longer term -- medium to longer term, we feel good about the wins we're getting.

Justin Long

Analyst

Great. Thanks. I appreciate the time.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thanks, Justin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from [Hendi Susanto of CTS] (ph). Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning, Kieran and Ashish.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Good morning, Hendi.

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Hi, Hendi.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yeah. Ashish, I have a question on the labor wage increase and then the raw material cost increase. Should we -- like, is there any way where we can think about the magnitude whether those two account for, let's say, single digit percentage of the cost of goods sold or like just to get some insight into the magnitude of the gross margin pressure on those two ends?

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Yeah. So, Hendi, if you go back to the last two years, we were seeing some significant increases, which we called out and we quantified. The dynamic is improving. What we wanted to call out is that we are still seeing some areas of pressure. On the wage side, it's in Mexico, it's in some other countries that we operate in in Europe. The materials is improving, but there are some places, some specific suppliers where we still have challenges. So, that's what we're trying to call out. I wouldn't be saying that it has a significant margin impact for our business. And, as I mentioned on the call, we are still working with our customer base to share those cost increases as appropriate just so that we are managing the overall margin impact.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

And, Hendi, one thing I want to highlight is where we have those challenges and we feel they're not best to market, we're not shy about turning on new sources.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I see. And, Kieran, may I seek your insight in terms of the UAW strike, whether the impact can go beyond Q4?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

I would hope not, Hendi. The impact is big enough. You obviously heard last night that the Ford is up for proposed settlement at this stage. Our bigger customers are with GM and Stellantis. But, given what's happening with Ford, I would hope things would converge soon and not get into next year at all.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I see. And, Kieran, congratulations on securing the first win in eBrake. May I know when the commercial sales of eBrake associated with that win may start?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Hendi, it's a new product. It's complex. The first revenues come in either late '26 or '27. And the product is very popular with our customer. We have a lot of interest in it as well. We see this as a platform that can be, just like our accelerator modules, a $50 million-plus platform over years.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Yeah. And then, the awards that you have in the AC motor current sensors, what is the timing of the commercial sales?

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

On the current sensors, in actual fact, with what we've done out of the maglab acquisition, we already have some impact in sales in industrial applications. The automotive ones take a little bit longer, but they're on a good trajectory. It's not going to be three or four years, it's going to be closer to two years.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I see. Okay. Thank you, Kieran. Thank you, Ashish.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thanks, Hendi.

Ashish Agrawal

Analyst

Thanks, Hendi.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we currently have no further questions. So, I'll hand back to Kieran O'Sullivan for any further remarks.

Kieran O'Sullivan

Analyst

Thanks, Alex, and thank you all for your time. Despite the near-term headwinds, CTS is well-positioned for future growth, driven by the megatrends of increased automation, connectivity, and energy efficiency. Overall, we're focused on our long-term goals to drive profitable growth. The solid wins in the quarter, expansion of customers, new development contracts, and pipeline of opportunities underscore our strong confidence in CTS' future. I want to thank our global teams for their support in driving our strategic initiatives, successfully launching several new products, and continuing to give back to those less fortunate in our communities during the quarter. We also continue to work hard to enhance our operational performance. Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes our call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.