Micky Arison
Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
This is a complicated and controversial issue. Let me take a pass at it, but it’s going to take a little bit of time. Our philosophy on air sea versus cruise only is that the air sea decision should be income neutral to us. It’s not revenue neutral, obviously but it is income neutral to us, so we price our air sea packages to give us the same yield as our cruise only. I’ll do this in an example but understand we do this over hundreds of city pairs. We don’t do it by single city pair, but I’ll give you a single city pair, try to give you an example so you can understand what the dynamics is happening here. We have a city, let’s say Chicago-Miami, and our people, a year-and-a-half, two years in advance, print a brochure, have to decide on pricing and they do that by negotiating with the airlines, coming up with an unrestricted fare. Let’s say it’s $500, add in the 5% commission and put it to market at $525. The booking curve is four months out, and four months out the customer comes in and the airline is selling some sort of restricted fare at $299 or $199 or some number, obviously significantly lower than what is in our brochure at $525, and that’s why we are only selling 12% potential air sea packages. Travel agents who are able to take advantage of that $199 or $299 are happy to sell it and/or sell the $525, whichever happens to be available. But many travel agents, cruise only travel agents, home-based travel agents, can’t sell the $299 or $199 and have to refer those people to the website for the airlines or refer them because they don’t have the ability to write airline tickets. So it’s a very un-level playing field right now. What we are trying to create is a more competitive environment where we can sell at more competitive prices. And over time, the absolute perfect solution would be that we would be able to sell to the consumer that $299 or $199 fare, or to the travel agent that $299 or $199. That’s our goal. To do that, we can’t be paying commission because the airlines don’t pay commissions. So this is one step in an overall very complicated problem to get to a very level playing field for all travel agents, fairness to all travel agents, without any profit impact to us but hopefully a more competitive price for the customer through all our distribution channels. That is a very complicated answer to what sounded like a simple question, but that’s why in meetings with our entire management team, we concluded that the correct first step was to eliminate commissions as we work toward the ultimate solution, and we are not there yet but we’ve taken the first step.