Earnings Labs

Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Fri, Sep 29, 2023

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Transcript

Josh Weinstein

Management

Good morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts. Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I'll refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. Another quarter and another set of milestones and records. This quarter, we reached net income well in excess of $1 billion and EBITDA well over $2 billion. We also achieved revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income that all exceeded the high-end of our June guidance range with constant currency adjusted cruise costs in line with expectations. Furthermore, customer deposits and booking volumes, both important forward indicators, hit record levels for the third quarter. Thanks to the efforts of our amazing team, ship and shore, we exceeded the midpoint of our adjusted net income guidance by $175 million this quarter. The outperformance was driven by strength in demand for our brands, with both our North American and European segments equally outperforming expectations. The result was yields that were higher than anticipated that exceeded 2019's strong levels and that reached an all-time high. On the European front, occupancy came in better than anticipated for Costa and AIDA, with both brands hitting 119% occupancy in August. Not to be outdone, P&O Cruises achieved its highest occupancy in over a decade, despite a 40% capacity increase from 2019. And as for pricing, our third quarter per diems were 5 points higher than 2019, also hitting record levels and more than overcoming the absence of St. Petersburg, which was among our highest-yielding itineraries and weighted to the third quarter. Normalizing for this impact, we estimate per diem growth…

David Bernstein

Management

Thank you, Josh. Before I begin, please note all of my references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 third quarter results, then I'll give some color on our 2023 full-year September guidance. Next, I will provide a recap of our 2024 cumulative advanced book position, along with a few other things to consider for 2024. And then I will finish up describing our financial position. As Josh indicated, our third quarter adjusted net income exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $175 million as we outperformed our June guidance. The improvement was driven by three things. First, $90 million of favorability in revenue from higher ticket prices as net per diems were up almost 5%, nearly a point better than the midpoint of our June guidance range, while our brands outperformed on occupancy, achieving 109% for the quarter. In fact, third quarter revenues of $6.9 billion were a record and net yields were once again positive as compared to 2019. Second, we had $40 million of favorability in net interest expense. A successful refinancing gave us the runway to core $1.2 billion of our highest cost debt, and we prepaid an additional $1.1 billion of debt, which reduced interest expense during the quarter. Additionally, we had $900 million of customer deposit reserves returned to the company during the quarter, generating additional interest income and higher overall interest income rate than forecasted also contributed to this favorability. And third, $45 million of favorability in fuel consumption, depreciation and income taxes drove this final piece. Next, I will give some color on our 2023 full-year September guidance. For the full-year 2023, we now expect the midpoint of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Please proceed.

Steven Wieczynski

Analyst

Yes. Hey, guys. Good morning. And congrats on the solid quarter and outlook as well. So look, Josh, I know you don't want to give 2024 guidance yet. And I'm not even sure you're going to give guidance in December, hold off until March like you did this year. But based on what you're seeing today, and David did give some color in his prepared remarks around the booking and pricing environment, which both seem very strong into next year. I mean, as we start to think about 2024 from a high-level perspective, is there anything you can kind of help us with in terms of maybe how you're thinking about those per diems? And look, it sounds like you have a pretty good handle on the pricing side of things at this point. But is the onboard side still present probably the biggest headwind or unknown at this point as you kind of think about the way next year might shape up?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Good morning, Steve. Thanks for the very first call being about 2024 and guidance that we haven't given. Let me start with what you said about onboard. I think the encouraging thing about onboard is, if you look at what the consumer has been spending with us over the last three quarters and what we projected in the fourth quarter, it hasn't gone down. So comps might go up and down percentage-wise a bit here and there because of what the world looked like back in 2019 as a percentage quarter-over-quarter. But literally, they're spending the same amount today that they were three quarters ago. And we haven't seen that slowdown. So that's very encouraging, and that's part of what gives us confidence when we say we're feeling pretty good about our business in light of whatever is going on in the macro economy. With respect to our booked business, being 10 points ahead at higher pricing, does give us a good amount of maneuver ability to really deliver on the yields next year, which is what we expect to do. We're not giving guidance yet, so we're not going to get into the nuts and bolts, but I'm comfortable that we're on the right path.

Steven Wieczynski

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that. And I know you probably weren't going to give a very detailed answer there, but I thought I'd try anyway. So if you like that question for 2024, I'm going to try to ask another one and see if I can get something on the other side of the equation, and that's the cost side, which David, you mentioned – I think you said kind of a 1% to 2% increase in cost for a 5% to 6% increase in load factors. So we just kind of assume you get back into that 106%, 107% range next year, coupled with the pretty material increase in dry dock days, which you guys have communicated before. As we think about next year, I know you're probably not going to give a detailed answer here either. But should we be thinking about costs kind of up in that low, call it, a 2% to 3% kind of increase next year? Is that too high? Or is that too low? I guess that's what I'm trying to figure out.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. That's another good try. How about this. If we think about 2024, what are the tailwinds and what are the headwinds, right? So overall, as we look at 2024, we've got a good amount of momentum going, right? First of all, we're starting from that normalized or elongated booking curve, best book position in our history. The things that we have been doing to try to generate incremental demand and incremental pricing evidentiary says it's working with 7 points higher per diems pretty much consistently throughout this year as we close the occupancy gap. We expect to be back to full-year occupancy as you were pointing out. The power of our portfolio approach, I don't want to discount. We've been talking about this for many quarters. And what used to be a concern around Europe should now be some applause and congratulations for our European brands who are really coming on. To be able to say that our Continental European brands hit positive yields versus 2019 this summer is fantastic given where they were a year ago and despite all the concerns that have been raised about our European brands and our approach to being dedicated to particular markets that we feel very strongly about. We expect that will continue because, as you know, in the first half of next year, our European brands did have a lot of work to do to claw back and get to where they were. At the same time, we're doubling down on Carnival Fun Italian Style with the second Costa ship coming over to Carnival. The trade has been rebounding tremendously. Our first timers are really driving our growth, which is another testament to all the commercial work that our team is doing. So there's a lot of positivity on the table…

David Bernstein

Management

Yes, and the only thing I'll add to what Josh said, and he went through some of the puts and takes on costs. On the dry dock days, that's probably going to add three quarters of a point to maybe 1 point to our overall cost structure. And on the capacity increase, remember, pre-pause, we used to say that the new ships were 15% to 25% more efficient on the operating costs, excluding fuel than the existing fleet. But remember, we did have it. And so if you do the math, that probably would get you about a 1% reduction from economies of scale on the old basis. But remember, our existing fleet has been optimized. And as a result of that, it's probably less than 1% on the operating cost or the ship operating cost for the capacity increase. So put all those puts and takes together, we're not prepared. We're not giving guidance at this point. And in fact, I will say that we're going to be spending the next month with all of our brands going through their plans, better understanding everything. And hopefully, by – at some point during the fourth quarter, we'll have a better idea as to the overall direction of the cost structure for 2024.

Steven Wieczynski

Analyst

Okay, guys. Thank you very much. I won't ask another question on 2024, and I'll stop there. Thank you very much.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist. Please proceed.

Patrick Scholes

Analyst · Truist. Please proceed.

Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me okay?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. Hi, Patrick.

Patrick Scholes

Analyst · Truist. Please proceed.

Okay. Great. Good morning. Let's talk a little bit about fuel. I know in the – I believe in the past, fuel costs have spiked you, I believe you may have instituted a fuel surcharge to your customers. I believe one of your competitors is actively considering doing a fuel surcharge this time around. Is that something you might consider as well? Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. It's certainly not off the table. We wouldn't take anything off of the table. It's not something we're planning to implement in the near-term, although that could certainly change. There are certainly considerations that have to be made about what's the norm in society with the expectations of our customer. Obviously, you don't go retroactively too. So you're talking about forward bookings. But I wouldn't take anything off the table. I would reiterate, though, even a fuel surcharge is temporary. And really, the one thing that we can do, no matter what compiler high water is used less and that's where our focus is. And we estimate it saved us about $375 million on the bottom line this year versus what our profile looks like in 2019 because of all those efforts.

Patrick Scholes

Analyst · Truist. Please proceed.

Okay. And then one more question, Josh. Certainly a similar regarding fuel. And this is sort of a high-level question here. Why is it you folks don't hedge? One of the pushbacks I get from long-only investor is they don't like the day-to-day volatility in the stock when oil gets volatile and also the volatility in earnings. There's certainly a possibility that I understand that hedging does have a real dollar cost to it. But if it brings in a long-only investor base, it may actually be worth it long-term for the stock. Just talk to me about why you folks sort of hold out on not hedging when competitors do it? Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. Well, I'd start by saying the same thing as a surcharge, which is we don't take anything off the table, including hedging. We only get the question when fuel prices spike though. We never get the question when it's not – when it's going the other way. So I do think that there's a little bit of a – it's not a question of hedging. Are you putting wagers on that are either going to benefit you or not depending on the environment? I buy the volatility part. I mean we've done empirical studies like everybody else. The last time we did one, it only added about 1% to the share price because even though it might take away day-to-day volatility when you look at the long-term value of the firm, ultimately, it doesn't make a dent in the grand scheme of the cash flow generation discounted back, et cetera. So it is, a, consideration, the volatility as is the cost of any kind of hedging program. So we'll continue to look at it. But thus far, when we've laid out all the pros and the cons, we haven't been there. But I wouldn't say that, that has become our answer forever. That's just where we are now.

Patrick Scholes

Analyst · Truist. Please proceed.

Understood. And I can clearly get when fuel prices go down, nobody ask questions like these. So thank you. I'm all set.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Thanks, Patrick.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please proceed.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed.

Hey everybody. Good morning. Thanks for the question. So first, I wanted to talk a little bit about the bookings commentary, Josh. You sounded very bullish on what you guys have gotten done so far for 2024. And I'm just – you used the term base loading, you gave us some great data points on where you sit now versus 2019 and the volume trajectory, et cetera. And I guess the question is just sort of qualitatively, do you think that you had to give up some price to do that? Do you feel good about what you had to give up on price to do that? Or just maybe open the hood a little bit and talk qualitatively about the revenue management strategy and success there?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. So this is absolutely part of the plan by pulling – we were able to pull forward 10 points and at higher prices. Now if you think about what does that mean for – are we sacrificing price? When you look at the pricing that was in place by the time we got to this booked position last year, our pricing is very nicely higher. And so the point is you manage the bookings by pulling the volume forward, you avoid the discounting at the end. And that's how it's been playing out. And so we're very encouraged.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed.

Okay. That's great. And then one more pricing question, but just more of a regional breakout. You mentioned that European per diems were now positive this summer. And I guess the question is the way I would ask it is, does that mean that sort of 40% – o r whatever your capacity in the continental brands, which is something like that, 40% of your capacity should see – or should be on its way to closing the gap versus what you think – what North America is currently doing index to 2019? That to me would be a material tailwind. Is that the way you see it?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Well, I'll look for David to give the exact percentage of our European brands. But ultimately, yes, we're quite encouraged that they're going to be making up big chunks of revenue yield performance because they didn't have that ability to do so in the first half of this year. But the fact that we're here in the summer and the yields are positive, I think, is a good testament to their trajectory. David is looking for the capacity number for you. So...

Beth Roberts

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed.

Specifically to the Continental European brand, which is…

Josh Weinstein

Management

Continental European brands, yes, hang on.

David Bernstein

Management

All of our European brands, including the U.K., is 38% of our capacity this year. But the Continental European brands is less than that. I'll calculate that in a second. Go ahead.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Probably closer to 25%.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed.

Okay. But the per diem recovery comment was about Continental or all of Europe?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Well, the per diems were – well, the yield comments were specifically about this summer and Costa and AIDA. I would say I can fill in the blank. The other big player in our European segment is obviously P&O Cruises. They had a 40% capacity increase this year. And so I can't say that their yields were higher. But I can tell you that their occupancy is back, and they are well on their way, and that's absolutely as expected.

David Bernstein

Management

Yes. And Continental European brands are 26% in 2023.

Brandt Montour

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed.

Great. Thanks all.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS. Please proceed.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed.

Great. Thank you. Two questions. One is just going back to the comments about 2024 yield. And I think the comment was strong yield improvement. And I know there's a glossary of David Bernstein adjectives for slightly and strong and things in previous years. So I don't know if you could just remind us what strong is implied? And I mean, just the math of your occupancy recovering if you get back to your full occupancy being 6 to 7 points and then price on top of that, I mean, it seems like it has to be at least a high single-digit yield increase year-over-year. I don't want to put numbers in your mouth, but maybe you could help us think about David glossary there?

Josh Weinstein

Management

I don't have David glossary. I just told you strong. So I'm going to stick to that. But I would say a combination of getting back for full-year to historical occupancy levels as well as price increases will go in – both things will go into what we will be looking for as far as yield improvement versus 2023.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed.

Okay. All right. And then also, I wonder if you could – I know you just sort of half launched part of the sort of Celebration Key. Can you talk about – since it sounds like you're not giving out what the cost and amenities will be at sort of the time frame for when we might hear about the cost and amenities. I think investors sort of well understand how some other private islands have been real drivers of onboard spend and ticket price. And so it would be great to sort of get more of those details for your new island? Thanks.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. So if this will be ongoing, I would expect, give or take in another month, we'll start coming out with even more. I'm happy to tell you, though, when it comes to how we'll be able to monetize the private island in addition to the premium that we'll be getting on the ticket side for such an amazing experience. The standards for any type of private destination, F&B, Cabana rentals, other experiences. And so more will come, but that's all in the plan.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed.

Okay. All right. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Hello, David, you there?

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Oh, apologies. Left on mute. Thanks for taking my question. Josh, what I wanted to just talk about for a minute is not so much this quarter, next quarter, but I'd love an update and – some updated perspectives around things that you are focused on to just improve the operating execution in a broader sense. Are there potentially low-hanging fruit or things that you can change, some of which you talked about at the analyst meeting a while back? Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. I'll give you an overall, which is I don't think that there's anything revolutionary here. It is simply continuing to do our jobs better brand by brand. And we've highlighted, for example, Carnival Cruise Line and just the amazing results that they've had quarter-over-quarter. Other brands are catching up. And they're doing that because they are focused on their revenue management techniques. They're focused on delivering the experience onboard. They're focused on their performance marketing and generating more leads to generate more bookings, positioning themselves appropriately in the market. So all of those things are incrementally helping piece by piece. And that's the kind of effort that we need from our brands and their teams to be focused on all aspects of that commercial business. And so we'll continue to focus on that so that they continue to focus on it as well. And so on the revenue side, I feel like we're making good momentum. On the cost side, there will always be opportunity for us to do better. David mentioned that we'll only maybe get a little bit of scale benefit from the newbuilds, and that's certainly true that are coming in. But there's always opportunity to look for efficiency and leverage scale on the existing fleet, right, in how we do our purchasing, how we benchmark against each other to find ways to do things more efficiently on the ships, source more efficiently. Scale will increase because frankly speaking, we're going to be carrying a lot more guests next year than we did this year and than we did in 2019, and that gives us more opportunity to leverage scale. So I'm pretty encouraged that up and down the P&L, there will be opportunities.

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Got it. And if I can just follow-up on one specific area. You talked about performance marketing, I believe, at the analyst meeting a bit also. And where is that and what opportunities still lie ahead to drive revenue and profit there?

Josh Weinstein

Management

I think we're – I think it's fair to say that as technology advances and our teams are better able to utilize that, there's more and more opportunity to be very surgical about the guests that we're looking for and how to get them and their eyes looking at us and looking at our websites, pointing them to travel agents, whatever that might be. So I'd say that, that's pretty early days. And even though we've made some pretty marked improvement when it comes to some of the stats that we've shown you as some indicators, and we really don't talk about things like conversion rate or things like that. We're very encouraged by the progress, and there's certainly a lot more room to run.

David Katz

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Noted. Thanks very much.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Daniel Politzer

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for all the detail thus far. First question, onboard spend. It looks like it declined a little bit in terms of the pacing relative to 2019. Is that a function of mix in terms of more European? Or is that more inside cabins? If you can just talk about the real-time trends there? And along with that, are there elements on your booking and in terms of pre-bookings that you can maybe accelerate that going forward?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. So on the onboard spend, I was – I think I tried to say this, maybe I didn't say it the right way. But generally speaking, the onboard spend levels haven't slowed down. When you think about the state of the consumer and you think about where were they in the fourth quarter of last year, first quarter of this year, second, third quarter, they're spending the same. So we haven't seen a slowdown in the profile of the consumer. As far as – so even though we had a lot more thirds and fourths, for example, over the summer, the spending per person per day didn't slow down. As far as how that compares to 2019, there's – I will tell you, there's a lot in 2019 that's different from today, right, from the way we do our bundling, from the sentiments of the consumer from where we take them. We didn't have St. Petersburg, for example, in the third quarter of this year. That is, by far, got to be one of the top, if not the top onboard spending itineraries because of all the shore excursions that get generated or got generated. We didn't have that, and yet we still performed at that high level. So it's a little hard with a 4-year gap to be that specific about trends. I'd be more focused on the trend that our consumer is not slowing down.

Daniel Politzer

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Got it. That's helpful. And then just for my follow-up. In terms of the EU emissions, there's a new tax coming on in terms of metric tons that are emitted. Can you may – is there any way to quantify that as we think about it for 2024 or 2025, 2026, just given that, I think, it's a progressive tax?

David Bernstein

Management

Yes. So for 2024, at today's current prices and given our itineraries and everything in our fuel consumption expectations, we're talking approximately $75 million for the full-year 2024, which does represent 40% of what the total will be at some point in the future as the percentages go up in 2025 and 2026. But keep in mind that the tax is based off of fuel consumption and so depending on what our itineraries are in 2026, all of the fuel conservation and consumption improvements we have over time, we're looking to hopefully mitigate those numbers as we move forward.

Daniel Politzer

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Got it. And which – is that going to flow through in terms of the P&L, the fuel line? Or is it going to be grossed up just – and that's it for me. Thank you.

David Bernstein

Management

Yes, that will be as part of our fuel expense line in the P&L.

Daniel Politzer

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Got it. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar. Please proceed.

Jaime Katz

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed.

Hey, good morning. I'm hoping we can stay on Europe. Under separate cover this morning, I think there was a press release on Costa and the new campaign that you guys are doing there, and there were some commentary around consumer behavior and the economic environment. And I'm wondering if you would just share any of the key takeaways maybe that you have extracted around the European consumer for us?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Yes. So Costa is one of those brands that's really on the rebound, and we're really proud of Mario Zanetti, the President, and his whole team have been accomplishing and will continue to. Their research based on their market and the segment that they're trying to hit in their market was all about experiences and leaning into particular messaging in particular ways to convey it because the product for Costa is already fantastic. So it's always a matter of how do we then convey that messaging the right way to the right people so they're going to understand want to pay to get onboard and then spend that money onboard. So there's actually a lot of work that the Costa team and some external help put in to make sure that we're marrying those things up together. And this will be the output. So I'm very excited about that trajectory.

Jaime Katz

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed.

Okay. And I think earlier, you had mentioned that there were a number of new consumers coming into the brand. And I'd be curious if you guys can break out maybe the demographics? Are there significantly more younger consumers? Does that provide a better lifetime value for the business? How should we think about that? Thanks.

Josh Weinstein

Management

So I don't have that data certainly at the ready. If we can kind of give you some more color, we'll Beth try to do that for you and she can circle back up with you. But this – from my perspective, the efforts about, in part, the advertising, in part just being up and sailing again. So you get your repeaters getting off the ship and telling their friends and family how amazing it is simply attracts newcomers. And so what's quite encouraging is the fact that our loyalists have been consistent over the last four quarters, and all of that growth that we've been seeing has been coming from first to cruise or first to brand means that those activities are really starting to pay off. And we think that there's – if you think about the cruise industry in the context of the vacation industry, we're casting in that in a really big ocean. So that bodes very well for us.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research. Please proceed.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

Good morning guys. Congratulations on a great quarter and a really nice outlook both for Q4 and the upcoming year. I had a couple of questions, Josh. Ticket has become a more reliable gauge now that we have gone into full recovery mode, the entire fleet is sailing. Onboard, while strong, should be less of a consideration? Or should we also think of the elongated booking curve offering these 40% of pre-cruise bookings and wallets being replenished, again, is something that would provide even greater stability?

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. I think – so first of all, thank you for the comments. The – certainly, the onboard component of our increases over the past several quarters has been outpaced by the improvement that we're seeing in the ticket. And so I think to your point, whereas the onboard component was a larger piece of our outperformance overall on net per diems, really, what we've been able to see is the ticket price is really coming on, which is encouraging. The fact though that, again, in ultimate terms, the onboard spending has remained constant in absolute levels gives us a lot of confidence that we're doing the right things, and we're providing the right options for our guests to spend on experiences. And so I think it's actually a very good mix. And the ability for us to pull forward more onboard spending, as you mentioned, the 40% of our onboard spend pulled forward. While that's a huge increase of 11 points, it was below 30 points back in 2019. That means there's still an awful lot of room to continue to do that. And so I think those components set us up very nicely.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

Great. And maybe the two very quick questions, probably more for David. Should we expect about $4 billion to $5 billion a year of debt repayments to get to investment grade by year-end 2026?

David Bernstein

Management

So we haven't given detail by year. But what we have talked about is by 2026, combination of the improving EBITDA and the debt reduction program, you're going to see investment-grade type metrics in 2026. Remember that in 2024, we do have three ships for delivery. And so that probably will be less debt reduction in 2024 than in 2025 and 2026, where is in 2025, we only have one ship. And in 2026, we don't have any ships on order. So just keep that in mind as you build through the math throughout the years.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

It seems that debt reduction would accelerate over the years.

David Bernstein

Management

Correct.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

Okay. And David, just one other quick question, if I may. NCC, net cruise cost, ex fuel are somewhat elevated levels relative to history. And I think having the – restart having somewhat lower occupancies that you're building on, especially at some of the European brands during the winter months. So that makes sense. But excluding the dry docks, which are coming up in 2024, do you expect that cadence of percentage increase in net cruise cost ex fuel to decelerate?

David Bernstein

Management

So let's keep in mind the 2023 numbers are being compared to 2019. So that is four years, not one. And so when we get to 2024, we're going to go back to the year-over-year comparisons, it's just one year. And so the expectation would be it's only one year of inflation as opposed to four years of inflation. So keep that in mind as you go through and think about 2024.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

That makes sense.

Josh Weinstein

Management

I think it's fair to say yes – the answer is yes. We don't expect anything year-over-year like we've had this year in the 11%, absolutely.

Assia Georgieva

Analyst · Infinity Research. Please proceed.

Okay. Thank you so much. I really appreciate the answers.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Great, thanks. So Josh, maybe could you elaborate on recent underlying demand trends in North America versus Europe? More so the continued momentum that you're seeing through September that you cited, I guess, what are you seeing if you break it down between loyalists relative to new to cruise and just initiatives in place to retain these new customers that you're seeing?

Josh Weinstein

Management

So I can't – I don't have any data about what the breakdown is for the bookings of September based on first timers or loyalists. But what I can tell you is that – I just – I think it's probably important to put into context. We've talked about wave, right? And we talked about how wave was the longest wave in history. And I'm not sure when we're ever going to call it, right, because we broke the record in Q1. We then broke that record in Q2, which never happens. We just hit a record in Q3. And when you look at the first four weeks of September, actually, we're up very nicely as well. And it's also being driven by the European brands. North American is positive. But the European brands are really coming on as we expected our portfolio to do. And so it hasn't slowed down in September. We attribute that to all the good work that our brands have been doing that we've been talking about and the inherent pent-up demand that we can still tap. And the encouraging thing is because of that trajectory with new to brand and indeed new to cruise, it means we're effectively back to normal from that perspective, and we can really focus on optimizing the revenue and the yields. So it hasn't stopped.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Great. And then, David, just to circle back on the puts and takes around cost that seems to be heightened sensitivity. So 1% to 2% core cost growth, if I heard it right, plus dry docks, I think you said 0.75 to 1 point. But then the offset or partial offset is economies of scale and the reorganization efficiencies, I think you said maybe around 1 point of opportunity. So if you net these items, my math, it's about 2% total cost increase. Any items that I'm missing here, just to maybe clarify some of the puts and takes there?

David Bernstein

Management

Inflation year-over-year. Just whatever inflation turns out to be for 2024 versus 2023.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research. Please proceed.

Conor Cunningham

Analyst · Melius Research. Please proceed.

Hi everyone. Just a quick one on the consumer. And the – I'm just curious if there's really been any change in bookings. I realize that you've talked about demand being quite strong and so on. But there's obviously a heightened concern around the consumer in general. Are you seeing any trade down effect or change in length or maybe even like prebooking for onboard spend? I'm just trying to understand if there's been any changes at all realizing the customers deposits are at records, but just curious there? Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. No. We're trying to say it as plainly as we can. We just have not seen any sign of slowdown. The only slowdown we see is as we're running out of inventory, it has to slow down. That's it. So we feel quite good.

David Bernstein

Management

For 2024 that is, but we have lots of cruises open for 2025 and 2026, and so there's lots of people are booking way ahead.

Josh Weinstein

Management

I think we've got time for one more, operator.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna. Please proceed.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed.

Good morning everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Josh, on the Costa Cruise and the new advertising strategy or campaign announced today, how do you see that evolving over time? And should we expect this enhanced messaging or advertising to extend to other brands as we work through SEA Change? Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. No. So first, the answer is no. This is very much bespoke for Costa, and they're Southern European guest base and who they're trying to reach. So certainly not. And as far as how this falls out, I mean, this is going to work its way into Costa's general themes. It already does, as I said, marry what they already do onboard. So this is just trying to make sure that it's communicated the right way and more to come. So…

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed.

Thank you.

Josh Weinstein

Management

Sure. With that, I'd say thanks, everybody, and looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.