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CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, May 7, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the CVR Energy First Quarter Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Stirling Pack, Vice President of Investor Relations for CVR Energy. Thank you sir, you may begin.

Stirling Pack

President

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone and welcome to our conference call, we appreciate very much your interest in CVR. With us this morning are Jack Lipinski, our Chief Executive Officer; Jim Rens, our Chief Financial Officer; and Stan Riemann, our Chief Operating Officer. The presenters will be Jack and Tim.So prior to the discussion of our 2009 first quarter results, we are required to make the following Safe Harbor statement. In accordance with federal securities laws and statements in this earnings call relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements based on management's belief and assumptions using currently available information and expectations as of this date and are not guarantees of future performance and do involve certain risks and uncertainties, including those noted in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.This presentation includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures are included in our earnings release which we filed today.Jack, I will turn the call over to you then. Thank you. John "Jack" Lipinski: Thank you, Stirling. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2009 earnings conference call.I'll start by briefly reviewing our quarterly operating results and also provide some context for the current quarter. Tim Rens, will follow with a review of our reported financial results. I'll first begin with the petroleum business and speak specifically to our refinery operation.In the current refining environment, operating flexibility enables the company to take advantage of the ever changing market. At CVR, we strive to adjust such flexibility to take advantage of opportunities.Our first quarter petroleum segment and operating results reflect our ongoing efforts towards the same. Factors that influence these results include collection of crudes and product mix, operating rates, reducing cost while maintaining efficiency, and meeting…

James T. Rens

Management

Thank you, Jack. As reported CVR Energy's first quarter net income was 30.7 million or $0.36 per diluted share compared to 22.2 million or $0.26 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2008.Adjusted net income for the first quarter was 45.9 million or $0.53 per share compared to 30.4 million or $0.35 per share for the first quarter of 2008. Adjusted net income has been adjusted for the impact of share-based compensation and the unrealized loss of the cash flow swap but it is not been adjusted for the impact of FIFO accounting or to realize losses in the cash flow swap.The realized loss on the cash flow swap for the quarter was 15.7 million compared to a loss of 21.5 million for the same quarter in 2008. For the first quarter of 2009 the impact of FIFO accounting was unfavorable in the amount of $6 million compared to a favorable impact in the first quarter of 2008 of $20 million or a negative variance of $26 million over the comparable period.Consolidated operating income for the first quarter which will be discussed in more detail by segment was $91 million which included the $6 million unfavorable FIFO impact compared to 87.4 million including the $20 million favorable FIFO impact for comparable period in 2008.Starting with the petroleum segment, operating income was $64.7 million including the unfavorable FIFO impact of 6 million. For the first quarter of 2008, it was 63.6 million including a favorable FIFO impact of 20 million.Refining margins per barrel including the FIFO accounting impact were $13.36 per barrel compared to $13.77 per barrel for the first quarter of 2008. Adjusted for the impact of FIFO accounting, refining margins for the first quarter 2009 were $13.99 per barrel compared to $11.70 per barrel for the comparable period…

Stirling Pack

President

Thank you very much gentlemen. I appreciate your presentations. Ryan we are prepared at this point to take questions from the call listeners so if you would go ahead and queue that. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

sure. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Dietert with Simmons & Company.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Good morning. Jeff Dietert with Simmons.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Good morning, Jeff. How are you?

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

I am fine. You had a good operating quarter at the UAN plant with strong production, sales were off seasonally. Can you talk about what's your inventory of UAN and give us a feel for what those sales volumes might look like in the second quarter given your outlook?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Sure. I'll turn the phone over to Stan. Stan if you'd like to?

Stanley Riemann

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Yeah. Thank you, Jack. Jeff, our inventories historically year-over-year last two, three years right now on UAN it would be roughly in the 20 - 25,000 tons range. Right now we're stepping about 35,000 tons. So we've got 10,000 tons that's really not a big issue and it certainly and logistically able to move it up.Our expectations on sales, I mean have always been slogging start due to planning season. In our territory I can't speak to some of the French territory as we supplying mainly the core mid-American corn market and we expect the acres to be there and we expect the nitrogen demand to be there. And quite frankly as the season gets way to that, that bodes well for us other than ammonia or other urea application. So I expect the season to have a real tail on it and drive it out to June but when the smoke clears I really expect to be there on time.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Thank you. I am sorry.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Jeff, just a little clarity, I am sorry. We've also been moving material into other markets out of our core area just to keep products moving. Obviously, there are other areas California, West Coast, Pacific Northwest other areas that we have been moving product into that has not been impacted by the swap weather.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

What's your visibility into pricing for the second quarter; have you sold volume in advance or is it going to be priced kind of on a spot basis?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Right now we're at the fill season until the inventory is somewhat empty in the field of the dealers and distributors. There is not a lot fill order activity that provides the bulk of our business. Right now most of this is spot. We're seeing numbers in area at or around $200 ton for UAN possibly a little higher as we move out little lower. Ammonia over $300 a ton, it's just not all that bad it's just nothing is moving right now.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Very good. I appreciate your comments.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Hi, guys, good morning. Great earnings report congratulations.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Couldn't imagine the tougher industry, these are numbers in right? Couple of questions for you, can you give us some granularity on from a refining perspective how the quarter looked month-to-month. Did cracks and operating performance shouldn't get better throughout the quarter or worse? And then can you give us an idea of what April looks like?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

I don't have the -- that specific information. I'll do this from memory, January wasn't as good as February or March, looking at the first quarter and everybody seeing some softening in cracks this quarter. I looked at screen two and one within $9 range yesterday. Crude differentials, contango has softened some what it's still there. We had a hell of a first quarter with contango given the fact that we're able to store the function by approving and rolling.Overall, cracks are down somewhat from the higher levels in February and March. But given history on a percentage basis which you have heard me talk about numerous times, it's just not that bad it's 16, 17 as much as 20% times of crude as compared to last year when crude prices ran and you didn't see those kind of cracks on a percentage basis.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Now, the reason for that is both that inventories of finished products or sort of lower than they were and demand is little bit better, you think?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Right now in our area, again I mentioned that there haven't been big run on diesel yet in the Mid-Continent because of delayed plans and season.Generally what we see is, as soon as the farmers go into the field, the diesel inventory disappears and again there -- it's not in the fields yet.But overall, gasoline cracks have made a surprising rebalance over distillate. I mean if you look back three, four, five months ago, distillate was way over gasoline, now you're funding the indoors which again, we have the ability with the way our refineries contribute to swing several percentage either ways so that's what we're doing right now.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Right, got you. Now your market area, is there a particular grain, is it corn that matters more or wheat that matters more or has that--?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Well, I mean if you are talking on the petroleum side of the business; no, it doesn't matter. The track has used the same diesel.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Correct.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

On the fertilizer side of the business and I'll turn it back over to Stan, it's corn related obviously, the soybeans do not require nitrogen fertilizers. Stan, would you like to--?

Stanley Riemann

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

That's correct. We track to corn acres much more aggressively than we track anything else in our market, and our market is pretty consistent. I mean I was in Nebraska and really those corn acres just don't fluctuate that much because that's your core area. The big fluctuation is -- of the corn area.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Got you. And the way planting seasons obviously weather related thing. I am in New York City so it's hard for me to tell but--

Stanley Riemann

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Yeah, it is definitely weather related and just I told this morning, just the plant and quite frankly I was in Minnesota, Nebraska just slightly below their five year average. Illinois and Indiana are dramatically behind their five year average. But with equipment to achieve the production ag, you can catch up very quickly. You get five, six, seven, eight days of planning. You will see these numbers change dramatically. So Western Cornbelt not that all bad shape, Eastern Cornbelt has got some catch up to do.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Got you. Now in terms of the balance sheet just briefly, I guess the only debt you guys really have is your bank debt. That's a pretty expensive proposition. Any thoughts on dealing with that or the timeframe which you might want to recapitalize the right side of your balance sheet or any of those things?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Tim?

James Rens

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

I think right now with where we're at, I think the focus is on clearly, Jack has talked about looking tight at both expenses and capital expenditures and focusing on, continuing to position the balance sheet better. And one of the alternatives when -- as we see our cash balances increases, just taking a look at the debt price, there is nothing that's clear, or imminent that weakness cost but obviously as we continue to have good positive cash flow we'll take a look at opportunities to either reduce the debt balance or do something on that side of the balance sheet but nothing imminent right now that's ongoing.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Okay. Thanks very much. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). We have a follow-up question coming from the line of Jeff Dietert.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

I wanted to ask on crude feedstock if you're seeing anything different and what you anticipate with the Seaway expansion and the likely swine (ph) coming into Cushing if you see any big opportunities there?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Well, obviously the more crude that comes to Cushing it gives us other opportunities obviously, cliff the Rocky Mountain crudes have been significantly discount because they were somewhat stranded. We think that may provide us an opportunity. We have even gone so far as we now way in terms of crude into the plant up to 3,000 barrels a day that are better attractive.We will; we look at anything that gives us optionality on crudes. We immediately look at, anything more into Cushing again.If we can get our hands on Rocky Mountain crudes that which fit I mean again we blend crudes. We blend anywhere from I don't know typical amount is 10 to 12 different crudes and every time we buy one, we just reset our LP and then go pick the next best one. So the more that come our way or the ability for us to get more just kind of puts us in a better position because having the crude storage in a direct line to the refinery basically put us as if we are sitting in Canada or sitting on the Gulf Coast, we get access to all.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Could you talk about contango benefits what trade roll benefit how significant was that during the quarter and if there were other any other contango benefits that you got on the refining side?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

I mean I'll let Tim talk to the specifics but what hit with the ability to store crude in the contango market is simply do a month-to-month roll for the longer you hold it to achieve for the crude gas. Obviously, there were some pretty significant spikes in the first quarter in contango. If you were to track it over the course of the month as it came up to expiry the contango would blow out it still tends to do that but it's not as deep as it was. I mean we saw numbers 6- $7 at the peak. Right now we're seeing $2 change at the peak. So contango is off but it's still there. And to some degree the cracks track the contango and crude just track the contango.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

How much storage are you working with the Cushing?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

We have a total of 2.7 million shell barrels and then we have another approximately 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels in the refinery and in our gathering system. So we have to leave some room in Cushing obviously because we're bringing crudes in from all over and we have to blend them and ship them up to the refinery. But the -- certain portions of the inventory are carried under our intermediation agreement, other portions are carried on their own balance sheet.Our inventory levels overall are higher than they were say on December 31st of last year. What we've done is we have the ability now with this refinery to run significantly higher rates so there are times where we will actually run harder, increase our inventory of finished goods so that we can keep shipping them, and we will do maintenance, opportunistic maintenance on different units so it doesn't cost us on a run-rate basis. We're in the path if we had to bring a unit down and would cost us throughput.Now what we do is we anticipate it, as far as crude we -- I guess Tim we had 4 to 500,000 barrels on our own balance sheet?

James Rens

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Incremental that's part of the opportunity of taking advantage of contango, we have kind of a basic crude inventory that is drawing about 500 to 600,000 barrels and then in addition to that right now due to that kind of contango in the market we're carrying an incremental plus or minus 400,000 barrels.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

So I mean if you look at the cash position of the company we could liquidate that excess inventory if need be and bring ourselves down to a level at the end of 2008 and that number would be probably today someone in a range of 700,000 barrels.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

As long as contango is paying you had to keep it?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

It's been on it, yes.

Jeff Dietert

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Yeah. Very good. Thanks Jack and Tim.

Operator

Operator

We have a follow-up question from the line of Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Hi guys I apologize I just missed what you just said there on the excess barrels that theoretically you guys could liquidate. How many barrels are you talking about?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Tim, what is it today about 700,000 barrels?

James Rens

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

On the crude side about 400 and then we also do currently have some incremental product inventory as well. So I think in total if you get back down the count, we would consider our normalized hydrocarbon inventory across all products crude intermediates and finished product about 700,000 barrel that we could liquidate.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Okay cool thanks. And just one other follow-up, so far in 2Q I know cracks have been down and we covered the situation with diesel. But in gasoline products in your market area what's going on there are you seeing sort of better demand levels now than you were three, six, 12 months ago or no?

John Lipinski

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

It's still pretty soft, the product basis is still negative. And generally if you look at our group historically, as soon as the season gets underway for ag it makes everything all that much better.I mean historically our group has a positive basis to the top of, I am going do this from memory, $1.50 or $1.60 may even be more and against NYMEX on a three year average that's even significantly higher than that. Everything seems to be kind to flow right now and its seems to be all weather related.

Vance Shaw

Analyst · Vance Shaw with Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

As there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to management for any concluding remarks.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Well, listen everyone. Thank you so much for joining us. I always appreciate the opportunity to talk to you. Stirling, I will turn it back to you.

Stirling Pack

President

Thank you, Jack. Thank you everyone for participating in the call, as they will obviously be available for any additional questions that you might have, if you give me call or clarifications or anything like that. We do appreciate you being here and appreciate the management team participating in this call this morning.Thank you again very much, we'll speak with you shortly.

John Lipinski

Analyst · Simmons & Company

Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation.