Pat Yarrington
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your question please
Okay, yeah, thanks, Ed, appreciate the question and I appreciate everybody’s interest in cash. You’re right. So it was a low cash from operations quarter, but we did have $2 billion of adverse working capital effects, so if you added those back, we would be at about $4.3 billion. What I would say is, if you looked at our sensitivity on oil price relative to prior quarters and look at it this quarter, this very much is in-line and in fact, it’s actually a little bit stronger than just a pure sensitivity would suggest. I’ll just mention the number again for everybody, it’s somewhere between $325 million and $350 million per dollar Brent change. So we’ve had a significant drop in Brent prices, and therefore a significant drop in earnings as well as cash flow. You’re absolutely right, Ed, that there were some decrements relative to normal quarters in terms of the amount of affiliate distributions that we received. This quarter was, I would say, pretty minimal in terms of that. We do expect that to turnaround in the subsequent three quarters, so that’s just a timing issue. In terms of how this looks relative to our plan going forward, if you recall the numbers that we showed you in March, the slides that we showed you with financial projections, all assumed a $60 world for Brent, and I think we’re exactly in that phase. And so I look at our profile this year in terms of how earnings have come in and cash have come in and assuming we end up at a $60 world for Brent, which looks very reasonable given where the futures markets are than I think we are exactly on plan and very consistent with the cash profile that we showed you back in March. And you’ll recall, for everybody, that we did have a significant deficit anticipated in 2015 and then we showed you the pattern of how we would move out of that deficit out to 2017, getting full coverage of our dividend by 2017. I mentioned the asset sales that we have, the first quarter was nearly $1 billion and here in April already, we have the sale as well. So already through four months, we've got a significant contribution of about $4 billion. So asset sales are a key component there as well.