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China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 27, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the China Yuchai International Limited Fourth Quarter and FY 2017 Earnings Webcast. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] On the call with us today, we have Mr. Weng Ming Hoh, China Yuchai International President; Dr. Thomas PHUNG, China Yuchai International CFO; Kelvin LAI, China Yuchai International VP of Operations; and Mr. Kevin Theiss, Investment Relations. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kevin Theiss. Please go ahead sir.

Kevin Theiss

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today, and welcome to China Yuchai International Limited's fourth quarter 2017 conference call and webcast. Before we begin, I will remind all listeners that throughout this call, we may make statements that may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words believe, expect, anticipate, project, targets, optimistic, confident that, continued to, predict, intend, aim, will or similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts are statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements concerning the company's operations, financial performance and condition are based on current expectations, beliefs and assumptions, which are subject to change at any time. The company cautions that these statements, by their nature, involve risks and uncertainties. And actual results may differ materially depending on a variety of important factors, such as government and stock exchange regulations, competition, political and economic and social conditions around the world and in China, including those discussed in the company's Form 20-F under the headings Risk Factors, Results of Operations and Business Overview and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. All forward-looking statements are applicable only as of the date they are made and the company specifically disclaims any obligation to maintain or update the forward-looking information, whether of the nature contained in the release and made during today’s call or otherwise in the future. Mr. Hoh will provide a brief overview and summary, and then Dr. Phung will review the financial results for the fourth quarter and 12 months ended December 31, 2017. Thereafter, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. For the purposes of today's call, the financial results for the fourth quarter and 12 months ended December 31, 2017, are unaudited and they will be presented in RMB and U.S. dollars. All the financial information presented is reported using International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board. Mr. Hoh, please begin your prepared remarks.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Thank you, Kevin. Net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 1.2% to RMB3.8 billion, or US$578.6 million, compared with RMB3.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016. The total number of engines sold by our mid operating subsidiary, Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Limited, in short GYMCL, in the fourth quarter of 2017 decreased by 3% to 73,610 units compared with 75,849 units in the same quarter a year ago. Our overall average selling price increased primarily due to double-digit sales growth of heavy-duty engines and higher sales engine for markets as well as higher percentage of engines sold will comply with National V emission standards than in the fourth quarter of 2016. According to data reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, CAAM, in the fourth quarter of 2017, initial sales of commercial vehicles, excluding gasoline-powered and electric-powered vehicles, decreased by 0.4%. Truck sales decreased by 1% with heavy-duty truck sales increasing by 0.6% and bus market went up 4.3% with heavy duty unit sales up 2.4%. GYMCL's heavy-duty truck engine sales in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 22.5%. Our sales in the bus segment continue to be expected by commercial electric vehicle bus sales in the fourth quarter 2016. Sales to the off-road segment improved in the fourth quarter of 2017 as well. According to data reported by CAAM, commercial vehicles in sales, excluding gasoline-powered and electric-powered vehicles, in the 2017, year grew by 16.9%. In 2017, the total number of orders off-road engines sold by GYMCL rose 14.6% to 367,097 units compared with 320,424 units in 2016. The increase was primarily due to growth in on-road heavy-duty and light-duty engines, industrial engines and agriculture engines. In for the year 2017, GDP growth increased to 6.9% from 6.7% in 2016 and achieving the…

Thomas PHUNG

Analyst

Thank you Weng Ming, now let me review the fourth quarter results. Our net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 1.2% to RMB3.8 billion, US$578.6 million, compared with RMB3.7 billion in the same quarter last year. The total number of engines sold by GYMCL in the fourth quarter of 2017 decreased by 3% to 73,610 units compared with 75,849 in the fourth quarter of 2016. According to data reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers CAAM, in the fourth quarter of 2017, sales of commercial vehicles excluding gasoline-powered and electric-powered vehicles decreased by 0.4%. Truck sales decreased by 1.0% with heavy-duty truck sales increasing by 0.6%. GYMCL's heavy-duty truck engine sales in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 22.5%. Gross profit increased by 6.1% to RMB1.1 billion, US$165.4 million, with compared with RMB1.0 billion in the same quarter last year. Gross margin rose to 28.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with 27.3% in the same quarter last year. The gross profit increase was mainly attributable to better product mix. Other operating income was RMB485.8 million, US$74.3 million compared with RMB43.6 million in the same quarter last year. The increase was mainly due to higher bank interest income, and a one-time gain of RMB115.2 million, US$17.6 million on the completion of engineering design services for the YC6K heavy-duty engine platform for our joint venture, Y&C Engine Company Limited Y&C, and a one-time gain of RMB324.1 million, US$49.6 million on the sale of HL Global Enterprises Limited's, HLGE hotel assets, compared with the same quarter last year. Excluding these one-time items, the other operating income was RMB46.5 million, US$7.1 million compared with RMB43.6 million in the same quarter last year. Research and development R&D expenses increased by 23.3% to RMB231.0 million US$35.4 million, from RMB187.3…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] We have the first question from the line of Manas Tiwari [Value Investment Principals]. Please ask your question.

Manas Tiwari

Analyst

Hi, congratulations on really good set of numbers and I have three questions. My first question is that the company’s heavy-duty truck engine sales outgrew the market, where the market grew by 0.6%, the company’s sales grew by 22% in the fourth quarter. Can you provide some color on that? Have you gained some market share?

Thomas Phung

Analyst

Okay, I think that competitors are little bit not accurate then the fact that the 0.6% in the whole market growth, whereas the 22% is our growth for the heavy-duty truck, so its not apples to apples comparison.

Manas Tiwari

Analyst

Okay. But my question remains have you gained some market share in the fourth quarter?

Thomas Phung

Analyst

We did gain some market share in the heavy-duty truck market compared to the previous year. I think that you must bear in mind as the whole heavy-duty market has expanded quite considerably in 2017 compared to 2016. I’d say, if you look at in total 2017 the whole heavy-duty market, heavy-duty truck market still was above 1.1 million. So that’s a lot higher than the previous year. As a whole there’s a lot of pressure includes our capital, we really gained some market share a little bit out there.

Manas Tiwari

Analyst

Okay, that’s helpful. And my second question is that the inventory at December end grew 52% year-over-year, can you explain the reason behind the limited inventory levels?

Thomas Phung

Analyst

The increase of inventory is purely due to the Q1, we have long holiday season as the Chinese Spring Festival. So not to – to be able to deliver our commitment to our customer so that’s the reason why we have stuck-up at a year end to fulfill the requirement, the customer requirement in quarter one.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Maybe I will add on to that one, yes, note the Chinese New Year in China, the Chinese New Year is always fall to the month of January or February. And during that period, the whole country is closed. I’d say probably a week people are going back to their hometown and all that. So in order to not to disrupt the supply, our customers – we still have some inventory.

Manas Tiwari

Analyst

Okay, and my last question is regarding your gross margins, so they were stable at 21.7% for both 2017 and 2016. What do you expect in terms of margins going forward for 2018 and 2019?

Thomas Phung

Analyst

It should be flat as the market is very competitive and we are facing pressure from our supplier on the inflation impact. So we’ll maintain a flat growth on the gross profit margin.

Manas Tiwari

Analyst

Thank you, that’s very helpful.

Operator

Operator

We have the next question from the line of Ke Chen [Shah Capital]. Please ask your question.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Sure. Thanks. My question is regarding the agricultural engines. We know Yuchai is a number one in the market share in the agricultural engines. Could you talk about your market share percentage in agricultural segment and also early this year, China number one policy regarding agricultural industry, again focus on agriculture development? So I’m wondering how this policy will further strengths our market share in agricultural engine.

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Mr. Chen, this is Kelvin. First of all, I mean the GYMCL and then not the number one top share on the agricultural engine in the market. But we had quite strong in the certain segment, especially in the harvesting machine such as the wheat harvesting machine and other harvesting machine as we are doing quite well in the last couple of years. And also in the year 2017, our sales had double-digit growth compared to our 2016 sales record. So we marked a quite good year in 2017 and we also a little bit quite optimistic regarding on that particular segment and then we will be still grow in the year 2018 forward. Regarding on your comment, regarding on the number one priority of agriculture, of the rural investment, it doesn’t hire any particular interest for Yuchai engine sales because the government incentive will be applied to all the machinery across the industrial wise, agricultural machineries. So we will benefit from them but also our competitor will be benefit from them as well. So we believe that the sales growth and we’ll continue in later of 2018 because of the – at the moment, its quite high inventory in the channel.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay. My second question is regarding your marine engines, we know U.S. became probably number one market leader in China in marine engines. So could you talk about your market share right now in marine engines? And please also talk about the gross update in 2018. We also read that you develop the marine engine for the U.S. market actually or do you reach the U.S. EPA standard. So are you going to enter the U.S. market by yourself or you plan to work with your partners to come to U.S. market?

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Weng Ming here, Mr. Chen. Firstly, we have not developed any marine engine for the U.S. market for now. We are not targeting the U.S. market for now. Now our focus is still going to be on – probably stay here, which is our backyard, and for the areas we are still have rooms to grow. Now in terms of whether or not the number one in the marine market actually, we have seen some strong growth in the power generation segment of the market. But the marine market as a whole has not really grew in 2017, it doesn’t go to negative. But we’ll relatively add up the power generation and marine together, which is probably look at it, there is growth in there and we have gained some market share there. But the thing is that in terms of marine, I think we are also of high cost power – in case which we used a lot in for these segments, we have started to sell more debt in 2017 and that has improved the mix growth and also the contribution to all system.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay, my third question is recently, Hong Kong Stock Exchange is allowing different shares, cost of shares to listing. I’m wondering if the company is considered in potential listing in Hong Kong.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

At the moment, we are still very happy with New York Stock Exchange, so we will continue to maintain our listing at where we are right now.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay, thanks. I’ll go back to the queue.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Yes, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have the next question from the line of Andrei Morosanu [Lazard Asset Management]. Please ask your question.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Yes, good evening, gentlemen. A couple questions, first can you kind of provide some overview of 2018 and your expectations for the market, obviously 2017 has been very strong from heavy-duty perspective but just kind of looking out in terms of visibility that you have into this coming year in respect to demand and perhaps, if you could talk a little bit about the mix that you see over the course of 2018?

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Okay. Now if you look back in 2017, the major growth is actually in the heavy-duty truck segment. Okay, and of course the industrial machinery as well. Now the heavy truck, if you look at a statistic, last year, I think the whole market sold about 1.1 million engine And that really was normal, that the market how many years that we saw. So going forward into 2018, we don’t see that the business expect the same level of growth in fact we expect to see some decline in the heavy-duty market. But I think for the whole year Q1 was still probably okay, but going into the rest of the year, I think it was start to decline. The medium-duty, I think it’s going to be okay, flat plus or minus two percentage point, that’s’ certainly growing and our view is the industrial engine, market that will continue to grow, I’d say, it has grown last year and it will continue to grow. But before 2017, not a decline so now it just starting to go back to pick up some growth here. The agricultural engine, its what I call is, as mentioned earlier we expect that to continue to improve, simply because the implementation of the speed train which is better is now – it’s not been [indiscernible] impact since the implementation. So we should expect the [indiscernible] CapEx to support normality there, okay?

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Yes, great. And then you mentioned before that your gross margins should remain fairly stable in 2018. But at the same time you kind of highlighted some of the risks surrounding the heavier competition and the pressure from your suppliers. Can you maybe perhaps talk about what are the countering factors to that in respect to why margins should remain fairly flat? Is it pricing from your standpoint is – I guess, you just mentioned the heavy duty would be a little – the growth would probably decline in 2018. So where’s the offsetting factor to those two points of pressure that you’ve highlighted before? Thank you.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Okay. Now we’ve – I mean, this industry is highly competitive, it always been for a number of years now. So, yes, I think in terms of pricing, in terms of margin there’s always pressure, every year there’s pressure. But we have sort of programs that we put in place since the lean manufacturing where we have been able to pick out five significant amount from a manufacturing process that we are able to have us maintain the gross margin in the last two, three years. We think that we can continue to do that going forward. And at the same time, I mean, whilst our OEM customers would like us to reduce price, kind of negotiated with us, we will do the same with our appliances as well. So at the end of the day, net-net, we believe that we’re able – will be able to maintain the gross margin at the current level and probably about the same level as we have in the last couple of years.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Okay, okay. And then my last question, in respect to the other items such as SG&A and R&D, so R&D it was barely – this year it was a little less than the last year as a percentage of sales. Can you talk about the expectation for R&D spend over 2018 and perhaps 2019? And then on the SG&A front, do you expect a similar level of as a percentage of sales?

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

Well, okay, let’s talk about SG&A first. SG&A would be probably flat spending on the sales volume.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Okay.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

R&D, you probably have read in our announcement that we have launched 14 new engine platforms, National VI engine platform this year, early this year. So in recent years from now – at the stage we’re now, let’s call, looking with our customers – OEM customers to design into the trucks or buses, and there we test run it. So for next two years we will curl – probably curl a bit more R&D cost, make sure that the engine is properly functioning, tested before the implement in 4Y20, okay?

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have the next question from the line of Ke Chen [Shah Capital]. Please ask your question.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay. The first question will be about operation cash flow. You mentioned that you have positive operation cash flow. Could you talk about a rough number? Is that roughly US$100 million?

Thomas Phung

Analyst

Ke Chen, it’s Thomas. It’s in the range about RMB1.5 million R&D – RMB1.5 billion R&D.

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. My second question is regarding the National VI engines like Yuchai first launched 14 different models in National VI which is Euro VI engines in China. Could you talk about the – elaborate the advantage, particularly I mean how you stand up before all of your competitors? And also about new engines from MTU JV and the engine you just mentioned 4Y20. Will this National VI engine requirement make the engine business be at less competitive because it require higher standard and makes this business more oligopolistic going forward?

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Mr. Chen, Kelvin again. Early in January and then we're launching 14 models and then we’re costing – our cost of full portfolio of the engine platform for the different market including the on-road and off-road. So it doesn’t mean we would definitely enter the market by launching these products because we’re not the only one agent supplier launching the National VI or TFO engine product to the markets. Some are competitor and then they keep the same thing and then last year or in the coming months or coming years and then we do the same. So in this stage and then if to say we are in advantage for us in launching all the full platform of the engine to the market. But it does mean we had commitment and then to the National VI MTU full products for coming demand. And also we work with our OEM together and then make sure that they have the right product by the time of implementation of the new emission standards. So regarding on those new products, are they also more conducted or not? It’s difficult to say at this stage because we had to prove the bottom one once it’s available for the market and then have the [indiscernible] into the OEM machinery. So I think that we had to wait and see. But of course, and then the – from Yuchai point of view and then we are quite confident about our environment. And also we would like to see those products that we will be using in different OEM in the market in future, okay?

Ke Chen

Analyst

Okay, thank you. That’s all.

Operator

Operator

We have the next question from the line of Andrei Morosanu [Lazard Asset Management]. Please ask your question.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Yes, thank you. I have one last question if I may. Can you provide some updates on the JV with MTU? And just kind of your expectations for that business once it starts up? What are you targeting from that JV? Just pretty much I’d say any guidance you could provide on that that would be great. Thank you.

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Hi, Andrei, Kelvin again. Regarding our joint venture with MTU, we are now in the final stage of the factory setting ups, and so we actually have the structure building ready and then we’re now installing all the necessary assembling and also building up the testing stand out of the facility for the engine building. So we target MTU production by in Q2 of this year. And we also had already informed almost of the distributor in the China and then regarding the product launching programs. And we expect and then we will have the right product deliver to the end user by end of Q2 or maybe beginning of the Q3, something like that. So we have some preliminary order already in hand. So we’re quite optimistic about the products how they learn official launching. And regarding on the joint venture product we will first we will be available to the domestic market in China first and then maybe pick a year or four years later and then we will go into to our international sales channel and then to the Asia country or other countries as well. So we are pretty optimistic regarding on this particular JV product because of the value of adopted productions in both China and also international markets.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Currently who are you competing with in China? I mean, are there other similar producers or suppliers of these large engines?

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Yes, definitely. And then our competitor something like, I mean, the Commands, Caterpillars…

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Command, okay.

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Yes. So they’re our major competitors.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

And just I was trying to scare the Internet I guess for pricing on these units or – obviously there is going to be variations in it but kind of looking at some of the used equipment or the size engines that you’re going to be selling there. And just whether or not if you could confirm these numbers, but is it right that these engines probably sell for as new between RMB300 and RMB4,000 per unit.

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Well, it depends on the rating of the engine, I think there’s a border price. And the engine, I mean, the product you sell for us not so many supplier available to that and then so there’s – I mean, it will be a little bit more expensive in terms of what we're doing in new China anyway.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

Okay. But I'm in the right ballpark, I guess.

Kelvin LAI

Analyst

Yes. I have no further comments.

Andrei Morosanu

Analyst

All right. All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentleman, as there are no further questions at this time, I'd like to hand the call back to your speakers.

Weng Ming Hoh

Analyst

All right, thank you all for participating in our conference call. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.